点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 公司发布2024年年报。2024年，公司实现营收3667亿元，同比减少20.12%；实现归母净利润14.19亿元， 同比减少9.86%；实现扣非后归母净利润4.07亿元，同比减少19.87%。2024Q4，公司单季度实现营收689.7 亿元，同比减少23.70%，环比减少26.80%；实现归母净利润5.29亿元，同比增长34.71%，环比增长 377.95%。 2025-2027年主营业务收入占营业收入比例的考核目标均为95%。此外，公司针对解除限售的业绩考核标准 进行了前提约束，各考核年度净利润增长率需大于0才可解除考核年度对应的限制性股票。 风险提示： 大宗商品价格波动，宏观经济下行风险，应收账款风险，终端需求不及预期，汇 ...

请参会人员务必注意本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发请勿以任何方式索要泄露散布转发电话会议纪要任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为申望洪源研究保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利 各位投资者大家好我是身份交易的首席分析师严海现在我来汇报一下我们最新的观点上一周其实大家关注的比较多的也是3月24号美国的传播法案已经临近了其实市场在这个法案落地之前已经充分反映了相对的悲观预期无论是集运还是 应该都会上修的如果这个事最终否决掉整体我们认为压制传播板块的固执的压制应该都会解除所以现在零件建议大家积极关注现在无论是集运还是传播其实都是在一个预期相对低的位置 另外就是刚入通的德强海运其实如果跟我们观点紧其实去年11月在港股刚上的时候因为IPO的估值很便宜我们就有个提示上周入通之后整体的市场的关注度其实也是在持续提升的这个位置集运板块的中小型船其实是我们现在最看好的也希望大家多多关注如果大家看我们年度策略 东南亚的几月无论是头部的海风还是这个新入通的德翔包括A股的宁波远洋还有这个景江航运其实在这个航运各个细分板块里这个小型集装箱船的这个供给我们认为是最紧 ...

各位观众好 我是方正机械分析师赵璐今天由我们整个制造组跟大家汇报一下出口这边的观点我们看到昨天晚上美国这边对没有进行反制的国家关税延迟了90天的期限这里面在机械行业这个方向的话我们建议可以重点关注的几个方向一个就是像 传统的这种老牌的这种出口企业这个手工具类和电动工具的出口企业啊包括像创科实业全封控股以及巨星科技欧盛电器还有像开创电器那么这里面像巨星科技和欧盛电器今天上午其实已经达到了这个涨停了那目前像啊创科实业啊全封控股还有开创电器目前涨幅其实还都相对有限我们建议都是可以重点关注的那目前大部分的手工具和电动工具企业其实都已经啊实现了这个产能的这个50%以上或者是这个这个 部分的已经转移到了这个东南亚这边地区啊有的是在越南泰国或者柬埔寨这些地区啊所以呃这个东南亚这边的这个关税暂缓对于他们来说应该是最直接受益的那此前的话基本上各家公司都是跌幅也已经达到20%多的一个水平啊所以这些是可以重点关注的手工具和电动工具企业 然后其次的话就是还有其他类的这种消费类设备企业那么它的这种目的地销售目的地最终其实也是向往欧美的包括像杰昌驱动啊做这个线性驱动的还有就是像这个银都股份做餐饮设备的啊还有像春风动力啊滔滔车业以及像这几 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipbuilding sector, particularly in light of the potential exemptions from the U.S. 301 tariff measures, which could benefit the shipping companies and the shipbuilding industry overall [2][11]. Core Insights - The U.S. 301 tariff hearings concluded, with specific measures expected by April 17. There is a possibility of exemptions for certain types of vessels, which could lead to increased shipping rates if implemented strictly, benefiting container shipping [2][11]. - The report highlights that Hengli Heavy Industry's order book has increased, with a total order value of approximately $13.4 billion, which is significant compared to its competitors [2][12]. - The performance forecasts for major Chinese shipbuilding companies for Q1 2025 are generally in line with expectations, indicating a recovery in the sector [2][24]. Group 1: U.S. 301 Tariff Impact - The U.S. 301 tariff measures could impose significant fees on Chinese vessels docking at U.S. ports, with potential costs reaching up to $1 million per vessel depending on the circumstances [5][7]. - The report suggests that if the tariff measures are implemented, it could lead to increased shipping rates due to port congestion and adjustments in shipping routes [11][12]. Group 2: Company Updates - Hengli Heavy Industry has seen a significant increase in its order book, with a hand-held order value of approximately $13.4 billion, which is about 49% of China Shipbuilding's and 66% of China State Shipbuilding's order values [12][19]. - The company is expected to achieve a production capacity of 230,000 tons of steel annually and produce 180 engines, covering four types of dual-fuel engines [12][23]. Group 3: Market Trends - The new ship price index decreased by 0.49% month-on-month, while the second-hand ship price index increased by 1.15% [36][40]. - The global shipbuilding order book increased by 1% month-on-month, with container ships and oil tankers being the primary contributors to this growth [45][46].

而2024年财报显示，该公司营业收入194.02亿元，同比增加20.17%，归属于股东净利润3.77亿元，同比增长6.85倍，其拟每10股派发现金红利 0.70元，分红比例为30.72%。 实际上，造船行业持续景气，根据克拉克森数据统计，世界新造船市场新接船舶订单17803.5万载重吨、7036.6万修正总吨，同比分别增长 39.3%、39.6% ，而由于国际冲突价格也在上升，以克拉克森船价指数为例，2024年12月，新造船价格指数收报189点，同比增长6.5% ，创2008 年10月以来的新高。 中船防务是中国造船业领军企业之一，竞争优势明显，受益于行业业绩高增长，而盈利也进入了爆发期。 受益于船舶周期景气上行，继发布抢眼的年度业绩后，中船防务（00317）于2025年季度利润翻超十倍。 智通财经了解到，中船防务近日发布2025年Q1预告，预计将实现归属于母公司净利润1.7-2亿元，同比增长达10倍-12倍。此外，该公司公布了Q1 订单进展，期间新接订单125.02亿元，包括9200TEU集装箱船、1900TEU集装箱船、特种船及20000方LNG加注船建造合同等，完成年度计划达 71.64%。 在全球造船 ...

Group 1: Stock Suspension and Resumption - XJX plans to acquire 100% equity of JZH, leading to stock resumption. JZH primarily engages in the R&D, production, and sales of flexible printed circuit boards (FPC), with applications in display modules and new energy batteries [1] Group 2: Buybacks and Increases - Guotai Junan intends to repurchase shares worth between 1 billion to 2 billion yuan [5] - Shandong Gold's controlling shareholder and its concerted parties plan to increase their holdings by 500 million to 1 billion yuan [5] - Weichai Power's chairman proposes a share buyback of 500 million to 1 billion yuan for cancellation [5] - Zhongtai Securities' chairman suggests a buyback of 300 million to 500 million yuan of A-shares [5] - Sichuan Changhong's chairman proposes a buyback of 250 million to 500 million yuan [5] - Shandong Expressway's chairman proposes a buyback of 200 million to 300 million yuan [5] - Caitong Securities' chairman proposes a buyback of 150 million to 300 million yuan [5] - Dongshan Precision plans to use self-raised funds to repurchase shares worth 100 million to 200 million yuan [5] - Energy Wind Power's chairman proposes a buyback of 100 million to 200 million yuan [5] Group 3: Investment Cooperation and Operational Status - China Shipbuilding Defense received new orders worth 12.502 billion yuan in Q1, completing 71.64% of its annual plan, including contracts for various container ships and LNG refueling vessels [4] - Tianhe Solar reached an exclusive patent licensing agreement for perovskite batteries with Oxford PV [5] - Chengdu Huami launched a multi-channel fully integrated high-performance RF direct acquisition RFFPGA [5] - Guoxin Technology successfully tested a new high-performance cloud security chip based on RISC-V architecture [5] - Ganfeng Lithium made significant progress in solid-state battery R&D [5] - Yunda Co. plans to invest 7.29 billion yuan in multiple wind power projects [5] - Zhongtian Technology's subsidiary won multiple domestic and international marine energy projects, totaling 2.499 billion yuan [5] - Ligong Micro's business remains unaffected by the US "reciprocal tariffs" [5] - Guanghong Technology reports no impact from US tariffs on overall operations [5] - Jinbei Electric's subsidiary won a centralized procurement project for electromagnetic wire worth 2.754 billion yuan [5] - Nuotai Bio established a strategic partnership with Middle Eastern pharmaceutical company Julphar to supply semaglutide raw materials [5] - Northern Rare Earth adjusted the trading price of rare earth concentrates to 18,825 yuan/ton in Q2, a 1% increase [5][6] Group 4: Performance Changes - Huatai Securities expects Q1 net profit between 3.437 billion to 3.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 60%, driven by significant growth in wealth management, institutional services, and investment management [7] - Hua'an Securities anticipates Q1 net profit of 502 million to 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80% to 100%, due to substantial growth in securities investment, brokerage, and investment banking [7] - China Galaxy expects Q1 net profit between 2.773 billion to 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 90%, attributed to significant growth in wealth management, investment trading, and investment banking [7] - Juxin Technology projects Q1 net profit of 41.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 383.91%, driven by AI product development and new market expansion [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang expects Q1 net profit between 1.4 billion to 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.71% to 68.44%, due to strong demand for high-end optical modules [7] - Quectel expects Q1 net profit around 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 265.19%, supported by robust growth in communication modules and intelligent solutions [8] - StarNet RuiJie anticipates Q1 net profit between 36 million to 46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211.64% to 298.20%, driven by strong growth in the internet data center market [8] - Zhiwei Intelligent expects Q1 net profit between 39.7 million to 43.87 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 208.13% to 240.49%, due to high demand for intelligent computing [8] - Guomai Technology expects Q1 net profit between 88 million to 98 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.06% to 67.11%, with a historical high in net profit for Q1 [8]

据了解，受益于全球造船行业景气上行，截至2025年一季度末，中国重工手持民船订单超过3000万载重 吨，金额超1400亿元，同比增长超过35%，手持订单中绿色船型占比近60%，中高端船型占比超过 75%。一方面，公司表示订单自2024年起加速交付，推动业绩大幅增长。另一方面，公司表示目前在手 订单额已创历史新高，生产排期已至2028年底，为未来业绩释放提供重要保障。 业内人士指出，产能是造船业当前的稀缺资源，中国重工深度受益于全球造船行业上行周期，在产能优 化、技术升级及政策红利背景下实现业绩爆发式增长。未来，随着公司资产整合的持续推进以及订单的 加速交付，有望为业绩增长持续提供动力。(燕云) 近年来，受船队更替节奏加快、航运行业脱碳进程加快等因素影响，全球造船行业供需持续紧张，推动 造船业订单"量价齐升"。在此过程中，我国造船企业凭借产能、技术、成本优势占据了全球市场的主导 地位，不仅技术实力全球领先，市场份额也在持续扩大。 2025年4月8日，中国重工（601989）披露了《2025年第一季度业绩预增公告》。公司预计2025年第一季 度实现归母净利润5亿—6亿元，同比增长267.85%至341.42%；预 ...

据韩联社：韩国代理总统强调在电话中与美国总统特朗普讨论了将就造船、液化天然气和贸易平衡进行 合作。 ...

收购了巴拿马的港口，目光又转向造船业，美国要下狠手了！ 最近，美国在巴拿马运河的动作确实引人注目，此前几天，李嘉诚旗下的企业，将自己的港口控制权以228亿美元卖给美国贝莱德集团，尤其是 牵涉到巴拿 马运河这个全球航运的"咽喉"，如果美国通过资本手段掌控的话，既能施压巴拿马政府，也能在必要时干扰对手的航运通道。看来，收购了巴拿马的港口， 美国就要下狠手了。 众所周知，巴拿马运河是连通太平洋和大西洋的极为关键的水道，而且全球6%的贸易货物经此通行，其战略价值可见一斑。自2024年底开始，特朗普就频 频放话要"收回运河主权"，甚至扬言动用军事手段，这不就是赤裸裸的军事威胁吗？可巴拿马方面也不是吃素的，总统穆利诺强硬表态称主权不容谈判，至 少态度放在这里了，而美国也不敢太张扬，眼看硬抢不成，就转而通过贝莱德集团运作，甚至不惜推动以25倍的溢价，来收购李嘉诚在巴拿马的港口资产。 美国要做的可不只是控制运河航道，特朗普政府还企图打击中国的造船业。2024年，中国造船业的三大指标，包括完工量、新接订单、手持订单量在全球的 占比均超过了55%，而美国仅占0.1%，差距非常悬殊，还到了造一艘军舰都得求日本维修的地步。这下子特朗 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The conference call primarily discusses the **U.S. economy** and the impact of the **Trump administration's policies** on various sectors, including manufacturing, trade, and financial markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Downturn**: The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first quarter is reported at **-1.8%**, with the Federal Reserve lowering its annual GDP growth forecast to **1.7%** due to economic weakness [1][3][5]. 2. **Tariff Increases**: Average tariffs have increased from **9% to 24%**, aimed at reducing trade deficits. However, trade deficits rose in January, indicating short-term ineffectiveness of the tariff policy [1][6][3]. 3. **Federal Reserve's Stance**: The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates but has adjusted its GDP growth forecast downwards, reflecting economic challenges. Structural reforms are underway, which may benefit long-term economic health [1][7][5]. 4. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade**: The increase in tariffs has not effectively reduced trade deficits, as evidenced by a rise in imports prior to the tariff implementation [6][3]. 5. **Government Efficiency Reforms**: The establishment of a Government Efficiency Department aims to reduce government size and spending, leading to significant layoffs and economic pressure [4][5][3]. 6. **Concerns Among Entrepreneurs**: Key concerns include rising tariffs, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages due to reduced illegal immigration, and inflation expectations [11][1]. 7. **Regulatory Relaxation**: The Trump administration has relaxed regulations, particularly concerning large tech companies and the automotive industry, which may lead to long-term benefits despite short-term job losses [10][1]. 8. **International Trade Relations**: Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have increased to counteract Chinese transshipment trade, affecting companies like BYD that planned to export vehicles to the U.S. [8][1]. 9. **Inflation Trends**: Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increasing from **2.5% to 3%**. Inflation is driven by rising prices in food and services [16][17]. 10. **Market Reactions**: The stock market has experienced significant volatility, with major indices dropping over **10%** and specific stocks like Tesla falling by **50%** [23][24]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Labor Market Impact**: The layoffs resulting from government policies have led to a **20%-30%** drop in housing prices in Washington, D.C., and a significant decline in market confidence [15][2]. 2. **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The administration's focus on reducing government debt and spending is part of a broader strategy to achieve sustainable economic growth, despite short-term pain [5][7]. 3. **Shift in Financial Market Dynamics**: There is a notable shift from private equity to private credit, with private credit market size growing from **$500 billion to over $1.5 trillion** [27][28]. 4. **Global Economic Challenges**: The U.S. is facing increased competition from countries like Brazil and India, which are devaluing their currencies to enhance competitiveness [21][35]. 5. **Manufacturing Challenges**: The return of manufacturing to the U.S. faces obstacles, including a lack of skilled labor and the need for a robust supply chain [42][1]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic landscape, policy impacts, and market dynamics.