◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价高位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹周产量小幅回升，考虑到品种吨钢利润较好，后续仍有增量空 间，低供应格局难续。与此同时，螺纹需求同样改善，高频需求指标均回升，多因投机需求放量所 致，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，淡季需求特征尚存。目前来看，供需双增局面下螺 纹钢基本面并无 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **coal industry** in China, focusing on the impact of recent government policies aimed at combating low-price competition and addressing overproduction issues [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Resilience and Challenges**: - China's economy showed resilience in the first half of 2025, but risks of low-price competition and external demand decline are increasing. Export growth slowed in May, and the overall external environment worsened due to tariff adjustments and high-tech restrictions [1][14][15]. 2. **Deflation Risks**: - The domestic market faces deflation risks, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining for 32 consecutive months. This reflects an imbalance between supply and demand, leading to reduced consumer spending and increased savings preferences [1][16]. 3. **Government Policies**: - The government is promoting integrated domestic and foreign trade and has introduced anti-involution policies to prevent vicious price wars and emphasize profit and development. These policies aim to stabilize economic growth through fiscal measures and regulatory oversight [1][17]. 4. **Coal Industry Challenges**: - The coal industry is experiencing homogenized competition, price wars, and profit shrinkage, which could lead to financial risks across the supply chain. Recent price increases in coking coal are primarily driven by capital rather than fundamental market conditions [1][19]. 5. **Production and Capacity Control**: - The government is accelerating the elimination of outdated coal production capacity and has set targets to phase out smaller coke ovens to improve efficiency and environmental standards [3][24]. 6. **Inventory Management**: - The coal industry faces inventory surplus issues, which are being addressed through various strategies, including exports and supply control to manage prices. Current inventory levels directly influence market volatility [5][22][23]. 7. **Market Dynamics**: - Recent price fluctuations in the coal market are significantly influenced by capital movements rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics. The price of coking coal has risen from 780 to 1,198 points, driven by speculative capital [19][21]. 8. **Long-term Development Direction**: - The coal industry is expected to focus on controlling overproduction and meeting environmental requirements without pursuing large-scale reforms. The government encourages rational investment and market stability [28]. Other Important Content - **Comparison of Policies**: The current anti-involution policies differ from past supply-side reforms, emphasizing legal governance of low-price competition and promoting high-tech development rather than solely relying on cost reduction [2][4]. - **Impact of External Factors**: The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies, particularly from the U.S., are affecting both Chinese exports and domestic economic stability, necessitating a shift towards higher value-added products [12][13][26]. - **Debt and Financial Risks**: High corporate debt levels, exacerbated by previous government incentives, pose risks to the macroeconomic environment. The government has initiated deleveraging strategies to mitigate these risks [7][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the coal industry's current challenges and the government's strategic responses to ensure sustainable growth.

摘要 还有哪些政策可以期待？20250724 下半年稳增长政策预期降低，结构性政策将成重点，聚焦高质量发展及 "两重两新"领域，对资本市场投资方向具指导意义。 未来经济政策围绕高质量发展，侧重经济结构调整和产业升级，内需市 场建设成关键，推动制造业升级和人力资本投资。 雅江集团及水电站对 GDP 拉动有限，重大工程更多基于国家战略和重点 领域能力建设，应从产业升级角度理解其重要性。 全球经济格局变化促使中国更注重国内市场和内需循环，推动新旧经济 交替和新兴产业崛起，加大制造业升级和人力资本投入。 中美贸易争端预计缓和，双方有谈判需求，关税战影响已钝化，但仍需 关注 8 月 12 日关税暂缓期结束后的变化。 2025 年城市更新强调存量提质、韧性安全和数字治理，涵盖建筑节能、 地下管网等综合性工程，产业链长，带动经济增长和产业升级。 "投资于人"成重点，加大教育、健康、就业和养老等民生领域投入，育 儿补贴、税收减负等政策将深化，提升人力资本和经济增长潜力。 Q&A 目前有哪些政策可以期待，尤其是在即将召开的中央政治局会议上？ 在 7 月底即将召开的中央政治局会议上，市场普遍关注是否会有新的政策亮点 和增量信息。 ...

钢铁行业"反内卷"解读 20250724 摘要 钢铁行业面临无序竞争和产能过剩问题，政策导向为提高产品质量和淘 汰落后产能，旨在优化产业结构，提升整体生产效率。中央财政自 2021 年起持续推进粗钢去产能政策，预计 2025 年及以后将继续执行。 中央财经委员会会议强调解决企业无序竞争问题，推动落后产能有序退 出，预计十一前将出台针对钢铁、水泥、光伏等行业的去产能政策。与 2016 年去产能改革相比，新政更注重市场化手段，而非直接行政干预。 工信部发布新版《钢铁行业规范条件》，将企业分为"规范型"和"引 领型"，通过分级分类引导地方政府、银行等提供支持。新版稳增长方 案更注重供给侧改革，强调调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。 新增供给侧管控措施将以短期内控制产量为主，中长期化解过剩产能， 有望改善行业发展环境。2025 年上半年钢铁行业效益较好，同比增长 近 50%，为未来进一步整治提供了良好的基础。 2026 年钢铁行业将正式纳入碳排放交易市场，企业需核查碳排放边界 并获得碳配额，若虚报数据将面临处罚。工信部《钢铁行业规范条件 （2025 版）》将作为企业分级分类的重要依据，避免"一刀切"政策。 Q&A 如何定 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美日协议详细版本公布，美 7 月 PMI 创半年 新低 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-25 合 黑色金属（铁矿石） 晨 英美资源二季度铁矿石产销同比略有分化 报 此轮工业品反弹集中国内、持续亏损品种，对铁矿石影响甚微， 预计矿价短期维持震荡。黑色涨势政策推动较强，建议观望为 主。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国公布美日协议详细版本 业绩驱动科技板块领涨指数，PMI 显示滞胀风险犹存，小盘股 和周期股走弱，市场宽度回落。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国 7 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值下降至 49.5 综 金价震荡收跌表现偏弱，美国对等关税谈判没有恶化，在美国 和日本达成协议后，市场预期欧美也将达成协议，避险情绪没 有进一步发酵，黄金再度冲高回落。 有色金属（多晶硅） 业内人士：拟修订多晶硅单位产品综合能耗标准，以推动落后 单多建议考虑逐步止盈，短期可考虑通过期权的方式轻仓试空。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 美国港口入境集装箱数量连续两个月下滑 短期关注高空 10 的机会。 | 陈祎萱 | 高级分析师 | （有色金属） | | --- | --- | --- | | [ ...

Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon market is experiencing a price increase driven by strong expectations and cost support, but the supply-demand dynamics remain weak and stable, leading to cautious optimism about future price increases [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - In July, the manganese silicon futures price rose from a low of 5576 yuan/ton to over 6000 yuan/ton, reaching a four-month high [1]. - The spot prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 200 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively, although these increases were lower than the futures prices, indicating a weakening basis [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in the black metal market is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy, which has created positive expectations, although this is just a trigger for the price increase [1]. - The black metal industry is facing limited accumulation of contradictions during the off-season, with some prices falling to marginal cost levels, which, combined with policy expectations, has fueled bullish market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The cost support for manganese silicon is primarily influenced by coking coal prices, which have rebounded significantly, with main contract prices increasing over 60% from their lows [2]. - However, manganese ore prices have remained stable, and electricity prices have not changed significantly, limiting the upward pressure on manganese silicon costs [2]. Group 4: Production and Demand - As of mid-July, the operating rate of independent manganese silicon enterprises was 40.53%, with a daily average output of 26,120 tons, showing a slight decrease but a significant increase from previous lows [3]. - The steel market is entering a traditional off-season, particularly affecting rebar demand, which has led to a continuous decline in rebar production and subsequently impacted manganese silicon demand [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While manganese silicon prices are expected to continue rising due to strong expectations and cost support, the weak supply-demand balance and potential accumulation of industry contradictions warrant cautious optimism regarding future price increases [4].

证券代码：600231 证券简称：凌钢股份 公告编号：2025-055 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《公司章程》及相关规定，王宝杰先生的辞职报告自送达公司董事会之 日起生效。王宝杰先生的辞职不会影响公司相关工作的正常运行。在公司未聘任新的董事会秘书之前， 暂由公司党委委员、副总经理、总会计师由宇先生代行董事会秘书职责，王宝杰先生将按照公司离职管 理制度做好交接工作。公司将按照法定程序尽快完成董事会秘书、总法律顾问和首席合规官的选聘工 作。 转债代码：110070 转债简称：凌钢转债 凌源钢铁股份有限公司 关于董事会秘书离任的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 凌源钢铁股份有限公司（以下简称公司）董事会于2025年7月24日收到公司董事会秘书、总法律顾问、 首席合规官王宝杰先生递交的书面辞职报告。王宝杰先生因工作变动，申请辞去公司董事会秘书、总法 律顾问和首席合规官职务。辞职后王宝杰先生将不再担任公司任何职务。 一、提前离任的基本情况 ■ 二、离任对公司的影响 截至本公告披露日，王宝杰先生持有公 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-25 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 铁矿石 昨日铁矿石主力合约（I2509）收至 811.00 元/吨，涨跌幅-0.12 %（-1.00），持仓变化-17104 手，变化 至 56.28 万手。铁矿石加权持仓量 103.95 万手。现货青岛港 PB 粉 790 元/湿吨，折盘面基差 29.04 元/ 吨，基差率 3.46%。 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量环比回升，澳洲受港口检修影响发运量延续跌势，巴西和非主流国 家发运量均有回升，其中巴西发运贡献主要增量，近端到港量环比下滑。需求方面，最新一期钢联口径日 均铁水产量 242.23 万吨，环比下降 0.21 万吨，基本延续高位运行。库存端，港口库存及钢厂进口矿库存 均小幅回升。从基本面看，淡季的高铁水和高疏港量是较强的需求支撑，供给端则没有带来预期中的显著 压力，近期的海外矿石到港量较预期偏低，进而体现为铁矿石港口库存累库十分有限。"反内卷"带来的 商品情绪还未完全退散，焦煤近期强势拉涨，对黑色板块整体有 ...

首席点评 ： 美国总统首次造访美联储，国内反内卷政策持续推进 当地时间 7 月 24 日下午，美国总统特朗普前往美联储，考察美联储耗巨资的建设项目。美媒称这是将 近 20 年来，美国总统首次正式造访美联储，此举是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔施压的升级。国务院国 资委 7 月 23 日至 24 日在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，总结上半年工作，交流做法经验，研究部署 下一阶段重点任务。会议要求，要高质量完成国有企业改革深化提升行动，高起点谋划下一步改革举 措，着力打造创新领先、功能突出、治理高效、充满活力的现代新国企。要紧紧围绕 " 三个集中 " ，优 化国有资产增量投向，调整存量结构，带头抵制 " 内卷式 " 竞争，加强重组整合，推动国有资本优化配 置，形成新的国有资本布局结构。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 0.56% 报 507.1 元 / 桶。贵金 属方面，沪金收跌 0.78% 报 778.08 元 / 克，沪银跌 0.55% 报 9369 元 / 千克。 重点品种：焦煤、原油、钢材 焦煤： 高炉日均铁水产量在经过两周的回落之后，上周单周环比回升 2.63 万吨，为近几周最大单周环 比回升；焦炭产量环比 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment for steel prices remains pessimistic during the off-season, with prices showing a fluctuating trend in June. However, a rebound was observed in July driven by "anti-involution" sentiment, although the rebound was weaker compared to raw materials [1] - Steel companies reported good profits in the first half of the year, leading to increased procurement demand for raw materials, while the recovery of domestic coking coal production remains slow after safety inspections [1] - Overall, supply-demand contradictions have not yet become prominent, with both domestic and international demand showing resilience. Expectations of favorable policies domestically and interest rate cuts overseas are supporting a strong fluctuating trend for steel prices in July [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, China's steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. Despite a decline in exports to Vietnam, India, and South Korea, high growth was maintained in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and the Philippines [2] - The global manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, with the JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI at 50.3% in June 2025, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved export expectations for steel [2] - Domestic fiscal policies have been proactive, with a rapid issuance of special bonds and a 15.4% increase in water management investment in the first half of the year. However, there are risks of weakening demand in the second half due to high tariffs in the U.S. and continued weakness in the real estate sector [2][4] Group 3 - Narrow infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI remaining below the threshold and manufacturing investment growth dropping to 4.9% [3] - Short-term demand shows resilience, but without sustained favorable policies, there will be pressure for demand to decline in the future [4] Group 4 - On the supply side, the Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, raising expectations for supply-side structural reforms [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel, will be released soon, further strengthening policy expectations [5] - Current supply and demand, along with cost support, are forming a foundation for steel prices. The slow recovery of domestic coal mines is contributing to a strong trend in coking coal prices, while downstream replenishment has begun [5]