所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 美豆：隔夜美豆期货触及跌停，主要因为对中国加购 800 万吨美豆预期的落空。本轮美豆上 涨的主要驱动之一，为市场预期特朗普 4 月访华之际，中国将可能额外增加购买 800 万吨美 豆，因此投机基金大幅增加豆类净多单至历史高位水平。周末中美经贸谈判之后，市场预期 逆转，进而导致前期多单集中平仓踩踏，大豆触及跌停。从中期维度看，南美大豆继续丰收 格局，供应压力尚未完全释放，中东冲突导致的氮肥涨价可能改变美国农民的种植选择，会 导致多种大豆少种玉米，因此豆类从供需结构看，压力依然较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 2026-03-17 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 中美在法国巴黎举行经贸磋商 观点分享： 据新华社消息，当地时间 3 月 15 日－16 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立 峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔在法国巴黎举行经贸磋商。中国商 务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢 16 日说，过去的一天半时间，中美双方团队进行了 深入、坦诚、建设性的磋商。通过这次的磋商， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping and carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors like geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand dynamics, and policy changes to assess the market trends and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The stock index showed a bottom - up trend on Monday. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.05%, and trading volume was 2.34 trillion yuan. Futures prices fluctuated with the spot market, and the discounts of each variety narrowed slightly [20]. - Core logic: A - shares showed resilience. The market maintained a relative strength of the index through sector rotation and high - low switching. Before the situation becomes clear, the stock index will remain volatile [21]. - Trading strategy: Adopt grid operation for single - side trading, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM\IC long 2609 and short ETF, and use the double - buy strategy for options [21]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Monday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.43%, 0.11%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively [23]. - Core logic: Recently announced macro - economic data exceeded expectations, and the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection has decreased. However, low - level and narrow - range fluctuations in capital prices, general profit - making effects in the equity market, and relatively weak domestic demand still support the bond market [23]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short positions should be closed in batches on dips. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. Domestic soybean inventory decreased, while soybean meal inventory also decreased [27]. - Core logic: With the lack of further positive news in US soybean exports, the market returned to the fundamental logic, and the soybean meal price was under pressure [28]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, there may be a downward pressure on meal prices. For arbitrage, narrow the MRM09 spread. For options, use the seagull put option [28]. Sugar - Market performance: International sugar prices fell significantly, while domestic sugar prices declined slightly [29]. - Core logic: International sugar prices are expected to remain volatile and strong due to factors such as high international oil prices and reduced sugar production expectations in major producing countries. Domestic sugar prices may start rising earlier but are expected to move relatively smoothly [31][32]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, international and domestic sugar prices are expected to be slightly strong. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell put options [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices declined. Domestic palm oil inventory increased [33][34]. - Core logic: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are the focus. Crude oil prices fell, and oils followed the downward trend. The supply of domestic oils is relatively abundant [34]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, oils may be volatile at high levels. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35]. Black Metals Steel - Market performance: The black metal sector maintained a volatile and strong trend at night. Steel mills continued to reduce production, and the inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate [55]. - Core logic: Overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise, which may drive up the cost of steel raw materials. In the short term, steel prices will be volatile due to overseas and raw material factors [55]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coal ratio and continue to hold short positions in the hot - rolled rebar spread. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly, mainly following the changes in oil, gas, and chemicals [58]. - Core logic: The spot market sentiment of coking coal has improved, and prices have shown strength. In the short term, coking coal prices will follow the trend of oil and gas and be volatile [59]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be volatile and strong, and cautious investors can partially close long positions. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [59]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold fell 0.25%, and London silver rose 0.2%. The US dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly [65]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, and the market is worried about future inflation. Gold and silver prices will be volatile in the short term [66]. - Trading strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate with a slightly short - biased and volatile trading idea. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [67]. Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.58%, and the LME and COMEX inventories decreased [72]. - Core logic: The US - Iran conflict continues, and there is still great uncertainty in the market. High inventory restricts the upward momentum of copper prices in the short term, but the substitution of refined copper rods for recycled copper rods is prominent [72]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be volatile in the short term, and beware of liquidity risks. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [73]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - Market performance: The SCFIS and SCFI European routes showed an upward trend [99]. - Core logic: Some shipping companies plan to levy emergency bunker adjustment factors, and the supply and demand of the container shipping market are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the off - season [100]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [101]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates - Market performance: The BDI, BCI, BPI, and BSI indices showed different trends [102]. - Core logic: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, and the high oil price puts pressure on shipowners. The performance of different ship - type markets is different [104]. - Trading strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices declined [113]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions and an increase in supply losses. The international oil price will be volatile at a high level [113]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, be bullish at a high level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [114]. Asphalt - Market performance: The night - session prices of asphalt futures rose, and the spot prices in various regions increased [115]. - Core logic: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to an increase in crude oil prices and concerns about raw materials. The supply of asphalt is expected to decrease, but the downstream demand recovery is slow [116]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it will be strong, but do not chase the high price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [116].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Not provided - Silver: Not provided - Copper: Not provided - Zinc: Not provided - Lead: Not provided - Tin: Not provided - Aluminum: Not provided - Alumina: Not provided - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not provided - Nickel: Not provided - Stainless Steel: Not provided - Lithium Carbonate: Not provided - Industrial Silicon: Not provided - Polysilicon: Not provided - Iron Ore: Not provided - Rebar: Not provided - Hot Rolled Coil: Not provided - Ferrosilicon: Not provided - Manganese Silicon: Not provided - Coke: Not provided - Coking Coal: Not provided - Steam Coal: Not provided - Logs: Not provided - Paraxylene: Not provided - PTA: Not provided - MEG: Not provided - Synthetic Rubber: Not provided - LLDPE: Not provided - PP: Not provided - Caustic Soda: Not provided - Glass: Not provided - Methanol: Not provided - Urea: Not provided - Styrene: Not provided - Soda Ash: Not provided - LPG: Not provided - Propylene: Not provided - PVC: Not provided - Fuel Oil: Not provided - Low Sulfur Fuel Oil: Not provided - Container Freight Index (European Line): Not provided - Staple Fiber: Not provided - Bottle Chip: Not provided - Offset Printing Paper: Not provided - Pure Benzene: Not provided - Palm Oil: Not provided - Soybean Oil: Not provided - Soybean Meal: Not provided - Soybean: Not provided - Corn: Not provided - Sugar: Not provided - Cotton: Not provided - Eggs: Not provided - Live Pigs: Not provided - Peanuts: Not provided Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals and market trends of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and provides corresponding trend intensity and trading suggestions [2][44][47] - Geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand changes, and policy factors have a significant impact on commodity prices [10][44][125] - Different commodities show different trends, such as some in a wide - range shock, some with upward or downward trends [2][44][47] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts break out. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02% to 5151.60, and the London gold spot rose 0.63% to 5120.54 [2][6] - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78% to 83.765, and the London silver spot rose 1.86% to 83.540 [2][6] Base Metals - **Copper**: The dollar callback supports the price. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 99,720, down 0.59%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk rose 1.44% to 12,919 [2][11] - **Zinc**: It shows a weak shock. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 23905, down 0.97%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3293.5, down 0.63% [2][14] - **Lead**: Inventory increases, and the price is under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16315, down 1.45%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1903, down 1.68% [2][18] - **Tin**: It is in shock adjustment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 373,360, down 3.18%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 47,810, down 0.97% [2][22] - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 25170, up 210 [2][25] - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the mine end. The trend intensity is 1 [26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [26] - **Nickel**: The smelting inventory accumulation resonates with the macro - sentiment, and the shortage at the mine end supports the bottom. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,400, down 530 [27] - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals and the macro - situation put pressure, and the actual cost provides support. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,120, down 70 [27] Energy - **Steam Coal**: Supply and demand tend to be loose, and the coal price回调. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 590.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton [56] - **Fuel Oil**: It has a slight pullback, and the price remains at a high level in the short term. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of FU2604 was 4,905 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [116] - **Low Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It weakens in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has decreased. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of LU2604 was 5,727, up 3.52% [116] - **LPG**: The geopolitical uncertainty is high. The trend intensity is 0 [2][108] - **Propylene**: There are geopolitical disturbances at the cost end, and the supply is expected to decrease. The trend intensity is 0 [2][108] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are frequent speculation themes, and it still has a short - term strong gene. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the palm oil main contract was 10,010 yuan/ton, up 2.48% [142] - **Soybean Oil**: The U.S. soybeans closed significantly lower, and it is necessary to guard against a high - level callback. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,716 yuan/ton, up 0.30% [142] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns about exports and the decline of U.S. soybeans may lead to a weak trend in Dalian soybean meal. The trend intensity is - 1 [147] - **Soybean**: The international soybean price has declined, and the disk may be adjusted. The trend intensity is - 1 [147] - **Corn**: It runs in a shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of C2605 was 2,379 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [150][151] - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the opportunity of capital position transfer. The trend intensity is 1 [155][157] - **Cotton**: The overseas market is strong. The trend intensity is 1. The price of CF2605 was 15,480 yuan/ton, up 0.42% [159][162] - **Eggs**: It is in a range - bound shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the eggs 2604 contract was 3,289, up 0.12% [165][166] - **Live Pigs**: The inventory reduction and weight reduction will start, and the duration may exceed expectations. The trend intensity is - 1 [168][170] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The trend intensity is 0 [173][175] Chemicals - **Paraxylene**: It is in a short - term shock market. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the PX main contract was 10180, up 1.62% [2][63][68] - **PTA**: It is in a short - term shock market. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the PTA main contract was 6982, up 0.69% [2][63][68] - **MEG**: It is in a short - term shock market. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the MEG main contract was 4897, up 3.55% [2][63][68] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a high - level wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 1. The price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 25 [72][75] - **LLDPE**: The cracking supply shrinks, and downstream users resist high prices. The trend intensity is 1. The price of L2605 was 8677, up 3.10% [76][79] - **PP**: The supply of various raw materials is limited, and the upstream start - up rate shrinks. The trend intensity is 1. The price of PP2605 was 8857, up 2.95% [76][79] - **Caustic Soda**: The futures premium is relatively large, and the disk is mainly in a callback. The trend intensity is 0. The 05 - contract futures price was 2547 [81][83] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FG605 was 1102, down 2.74% [86][87] - **Methanol**: It runs strongly. The trend intensity is 1. The price of the methanol main contract was 2,837 yuan/ton, up 3.2 [90][94] - **Urea**: It has a wide - range shock, and the fundamentals support the price. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the urea main contract was 1,900 yuan/ton, up 11 [95][97] - **Styrene**: It has a strong shock. The trend intensity is 1. The price of the styrene 2605 contract was 10,063, up 173 [98] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The trend intensity is 1. The price of SA2605 was 1,256, down 1.64% [101][102] - **PVC**: It has a short - term callback adjustment. The trend intensity is 0. The 05 - contract futures price was 5849 [112][114] Others - **Iron Ore**: It is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The trend intensity is 1. The price of I2605 was 809.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 [44][45] - **Rebar**: It has a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of RB2605 was 3,140, down 1 [47][50] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: It has a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of HC2605 was 3,299, up 1 [47][50] - **Ferrosilicon**: The spot price is firm, and it has a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the ferrosilicon 2605 contract was 5872, down 16 [51][52] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price is firm, and it has a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the manganese silicon 2605 contract was 6162, down 14 [51][52] - **Coke**: It has a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of J2605 was 1746, up 8.5 [53][55] - **Coking Coal**: It has a wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price of JM2605 was 1181, up 0.3% [53][55] - **Logs**: The supply recovers, the inventory accumulates, and the log price回调. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2605 contract was 808.5, up 2.0% [58][61] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the freight rate landing situation in the first week of April, and be vigilant against the repeated geopolitical sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of EC2604 was 1,970.1, down 7.08% [118][129] - **Staple Fiber**: It fluctuates at a high level, and it is necessary to guard against upward risks. The trend intensity is 1. The price of the staple fiber 2604 contract was 8382, down 74 [130][131] - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates at a high level, and it is necessary to guard against upward risks. The trend intensity is 1. The price of the bottle chip 2604 contract was 8342, up 28 [130][131] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0. The price of OP2604.SHF was 4188, up 22 [133] - **Pure Benzene**: It has a strong shock. The trend intensity is 1. The price of BZ2605 was 8510, up 211 [137][140]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which has led to sharp fluctuations in oil prices, inflation concerns, and changes in market risk preferences [4][7][9]. - Different industries show varying trends and characteristics. For example, in the financial market, the stock index is affected by multiple factors such as international relations and corporate news; the bond market is under pressure due to inflation expectations; the precious metal market is in a sideways consolidation state; in the commodity market, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products all have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4][7]. 3. Summary of Each Industry Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: News includes preliminary consensus on some issues between China and the US, expected short - term Iran war, a large - scale AI computing power supply agreement between Meta and Nebius, and the acquisition of Yiu Choi Securities by Ant Group [2]. - **Strategy**: Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disturbed, oil prices are rising, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are weakened, and US bond yields are rising rapidly. It is recommended to focus on the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. In January - February, China's industrial added value, social consumer goods retail sales, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends. The central bank conducted 1373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 888 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in January - February has improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures declined, while COMEX gold and silver futures rose. The US GDP in Q4 2025 was revised down, and inflation data remained high. Trump's remarks and the US Treasury Secretary's statement affected oil price expectations [8]. - **Strategy**: The gold price is in a sideways consolidation state. High inflation and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts make it difficult for precious metal prices to break out of the range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Market sentiment improved, the US dollar index declined, and copper prices rebounded. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the basis price increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The Middle East conflict and high oil prices suppress sentiment, but the resource attribute provides support. The supply and demand of copper are expected to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose and then fell. The inventory of aluminum in the domestic and international markets changed, and the basis price of aluminum ingots in the East China region expanded [13]. - **Strategy**: The overseas supply of aluminum is threatened, and the domestic inventory is expected to peak and decline. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The zinc price declined. The inventory of zinc in the domestic and international markets and the basis price changed [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The zinc industry is in a weak state, with high domestic social inventory. The zinc price may break through downward [16]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The lead price declined. The inventory of lead in the domestic and international markets and the basis price changed [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of lead are complex. The short - term lead price is supported, but there is still a possibility of further decline [17]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: The nickel price declined slightly. The cost of raw materials increased, and the price of nickel iron rose [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of nickel have improved, but due to geopolitical risks and high inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate [19]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: The tin price declined slightly. The inventory decreased, and the supply and demand were in a weak state [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined, and the futures price rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is strong, but the supply is uncertain. The inventory is being reduced, and the price is expected to be affected by subsequent events [22]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The basis price, overseas price, and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production lead to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price declined slightly. The spot price and inventory changed [25]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is moderately released, and the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The inventory and trading volume changed [27][28]. - **Strategy**: The cost is supportive, the demand is expected to improve, and the price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The inventory and trading volume of the futures market and the spot price changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The real - estate data is still weak, and the demand for steel is limited. The fundamentals of steel are in a neutral - weak state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The iron - ore price declined slightly. The spot price and basis price changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, and the demand decreases. Affected by the negotiation and geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to fluctuate widely [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose slightly. The spot price and basis price changed [34]. - **Strategy**: The prices are affected by the energy sentiment premium. In the short term, the demand is restricted, but there is a possibility of upward impulse. In the long term, the coking - coal price is expected to rise [36][37]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The glass price declined, and the soda - ash price declined slightly. The inventory and trading volume of the futures market and the spot price changed [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is supported by cost and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The soda - ash market is expected to be strong and fluctuate, and it is necessary to focus on the demand and inventory [38][40]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined slightly. The spot price and basis price changed [41]. - **Strategy**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is bullish. The future market trend is affected by the overall market and cost factors [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price rose slightly, and the polysilicon price declined. The spot price and basis price changed [44][46]. - **Strategy**: The industrial - silicon supply and demand are weak, and the cost provides support. The polysilicon fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [45][47]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The market is volatile, and the views of bulls and bears are different. The operating rate of tire enterprises and inventory data changed [49][50]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk and set stop - losses. Consider opening or holding positions for hedging [52]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The crude - oil price rose, and the prices of refined oil products also rose. The inventory of refined oil products in Europe changed [53]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions for crude oil, widen the price difference between different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [54]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of methanol changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The current methanol price already includes geopolitical premiums, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of urea changed [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Pay attention to the short - term demand support when the substitution value reaches the extreme [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [59][60]. - **Strategy**: The profit of styrene non - integrated production is neutral to high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [61]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are affected by the Iran issue. The price is expected to rebound, but be cautious of risks [63]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Be cautious of risks due to excessive short - term price increases [65]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory data changed [66]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks due to excessive short - term price increases [67]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory data changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and it will enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of risks due to excessive short - term price increases [69]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The PE price rose. The spot price, basis price, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz increases [72]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The PP price rose. The spot price, basis price, supply, demand, and inventory data changed [73]. - **Strategy**: The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction shifts from cost to production mismatch [74]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: The hog price fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price in different regions changed [76]. - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price is expected to be weak and stable. It is recommended to short on rebounds for the near - term contract and wait and see for the far - term contract [77]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with a slight increase. The supply and demand situation is normal, and the inventory is stable [78]. - **Strategy**: The supply is still high, and the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds for the near - term contract and pay attention to the cost support for the far - term contract [79]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The import volume of soybeans, the predicted production of Brazilian soybeans, and the export data of US soybeans changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [81]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies, the production and export data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory data of domestic and international oils and fats changed [82]. - **Strategy**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the short - term oil price is strong, and it is recommended to be bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [83]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The production, sales, and inventory data of sugar in China, India, Thailand, and the predicted global sugar production changed [84]. - **Strategy**: The raw - sugar price is at a discount, and there is a possibility of sugar production reduction in Brazil. The domestic sugar price may have a rebound space, and it is recommended to go long on pullbacks [85]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: China increased the import quota, and the predicted global cotton production, consumption, and the export data of US cotton changed [86]. - **Strategy**: The short - term increase in the import quota is negative for the Zhengzhou cotton price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on the downstream operating rate [87].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from March 10 to March 16, 2026, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. For example, the price of Beijing's rebar remained at 3150 on March 10 and 11, then increased to 3160 on March 12 and 3170 on March 13 and 16 [1]. - The price changes of different steel products are also given. For instance, the price of Shanghai's hot-rolled coil increased by 10, and the price of Tianjin's cold-rolled coil increased by 50 [1]. Production and Inventory No information provided. Basis and Spread No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - No core - view information is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - The report presents the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from March 10 to March 16, 2026, along with the环比 (sequential change) data [2] - The scrap steel prices in East China remained at 2220 on March 13 and March 16, with a sequential change of 0 [2] - In North China, the price was 2284 on March 13 and March 16, with a sequential change of 0 [2] - Central China's price increased from 2068 on March 10 to 2080 on March 16, with a sequential change of 3 [2] - South China's price rose from 2234 on March 10 to 2243 on March 16, with a sequential change of 3 [2] - Northeast China's price went from 2239 on March 10 to 2250 on March 16, with a sequential change of 5 [2] - Southwest China's price increased from 2113 on March 10 to 2136 on March 16, with a sequential change of 5 [2]

Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased week-on-week [4] - BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for February 2026 is 48.66, down 3.20% month-on-month [4] - M1 and M2 growth rate difference in February 2026 is -3.1 percentage points, up 1.0 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Current London gold spot price is $5018 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Blast furnace capacity utilization rate for January-February is at the highest level in five years [5] - Price changes this week: rebar +2.84%, cement price index -0.27%, rubber +3.89%, coke +0.00%, coking coal +0.22%, iron ore +3.67% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.03 percentage points, +0.32 percentage points, and -6.5 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and glass prices are at low levels [6] - This week, titanium dioxide and glass prices increased by 0.75% and 0.37% respectively, with titanium dioxide gross profit at -1901 yuan/ton and flat glass operating rate at 70.81% [6] Industrial Products Chain - National PMI new orders index for February is 48.60% [7] - Major commodity price performance this week: cold-rolled +0.87%, copper -0.57%, aluminum +2.83%, with corresponding gross profit changes of -70.77%, +19.53%, and +7.51% [7] - National semi-steel tire operating rate is 77.71%, up 3.68 percentage points month-on-month [7] Subcategories - Orientation silicon steel price increased for the first time since October 12, 2024 [8] - Graphite electrode price for ultra-high power is 19000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1653.64 yuan/ton, down 6.45% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price is 25100 yuan/ton, up 2.83%, with estimated profit at 7728 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 7.51% [8] - Electrolytic copper price is 100630 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [8] - Tungsten concentrate price is 1050000 yuan/ton, up 14.25% from last week [8] Price Comparison - Hot-rolled and rebar price difference is at the lowest level in five years [9] - Rebar and iron ore price ratio this week is 4.02 [10] - Price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 50 yuan/ton this week [10] - Price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled steel and hot-rolled steel is 390 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month-on-month [10] - Price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.10 [10] - Price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 150 yuan/ton this week, down 6.25% from last week [10] - Price difference between medium-thick plate and rebar steel is 100 yuan/ton this week [10] Export Chain - February PMI new export orders for China is 45.00%, down 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [11] - China export container freight index CCFI composite index this week is 1072.16 points, up 1.70% [11] - US crude steel capacity utilization rate is 77.40%, down 0.90 percentage points month-on-month [11] - Announcement No. 79 jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs on December 12, 2026, will implement export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, aiming to further regulate China's steel product exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.19%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being coal mining (+5.13%) [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are 38.60% and 75.51% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 (reached in August 2017) [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising investment interest in the "super cycle of commodities" and emphasizes the importance of understanding various economic cycles for successful investment in cyclical stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Investment in cyclical stocks differs from commodity investment, requiring a systematic examination of macroeconomic cycles, industry capacity cycles, corporate operating cycles, and market valuation cycles [4]. - The intrinsic value of a company is rooted in its ability to generate free cash flow, and the discounted cash flow model is considered an effective pricing system [4]. - Active fund managers can create long-term value by identifying mispriced assets, as returns in fully priced markets will only align with market volatility [5]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The market for non-ferrous metals and other resource sectors is driven by global liquidity, increasing uncertainty, and long-term supply constraints, leading to a systemic change in value [6]. - The strong cycle for globally priced commodities like copper and gold is supported by long-term supply constraints, as capital expenditure in the resource sector has significantly declined from 2010 to 2015 [6]. - Price trends may change when global liquidity contracts or when high commodity prices lead to significant demand substitution [6]. Group 3: Stock Selection Logic - Stock selection in resource companies should focus on resource endowment and expansion capabilities, with cost advantages and sustainable production growth being critical indicators of long-term value [7]. - The cyclical investment strategy emphasizes diversification and broad exposure to undervalued quality companies in various sub-sectors, rather than attempting to pinpoint market turning points [8]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The focus is on sectors with higher certainty related to domestic demand, such as construction materials, chemicals, and steel, which have experienced significant price and valuation adjustments [11]. - The real estate chain and the internal demand chain are identified as two key areas for investment opportunities, with a cautious but attentive approach to the real estate sector [11]. - The outlook for the macro economy suggests a shift towards valuation improvement in the second half of 2024, with potential fiscal policies and supply-side capital expenditure cycles nearing their end [11].

Group 1 - ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine's major steelmaker, will close two rolling mills due to the energy crisis caused by Russian strikes [1] - The company cites the high costs associated with European Union environmental regulations as a contributing factor to the closure [1]

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