美洲交易时段，美国6月ADP就业人数大幅减少3.3万，远低于预期的增长9.5万，且前值从增长3.7万下修至2.9万，创下自2020年4月以来的最大单 月跌幅。数据公布后，美国2年期国债收益率与美元指数两者同步下跌。 欧元兑美元汇率从1.1747快速反弹至1.1780。美元/离岸人民币走弱，美元抛售压力增加。 与此同时，美国挑战者企业裁员报告显示6月裁员人数为4.8万，月率下降48.84%，年率微降1.6%，较前值9.38万明显回落，显示裁员压力有所缓 解。ADP数据公布后，美元指数短线急跌后回升。 报告指出，面对特朗普政府贸易政策可能带来的影响，美国雇主们变得越来越谨慎，并正加倍努力削减成本。企业目前正专注于调整员工数量， 使其与今年放缓的经济活动更加匹配。 具体来看，在5月小幅减少2000个就业岗位后，商品生产企业在6月增加了3.2万个就业岗位。然而，服务业就业在6月份减少了6.6万个就业岗位， 主要归因于专业和商业服务以及医疗保健和教育领域的下降。 鲍威尔强调将密切评估关税措施对物价与经济增长的长期影响，表明政策调整将高度依赖后续数据与经济表现。 在接受调查的52位策略师中，有42位（占比81%）预计美元 ...

美国私营部门就业人数在6月份意外大幅下降3.3万人，创下自2023年3月以来的首次负增长，其中服务业就业遭遇自疫情以来的最大降幅。市场对 劳动力市场走弱的担忧加剧。 周三，ADP Research公布的数据显示，美国6月ADP就业人数减少3.3万人，预期9.8万人，而5月份的数据在向下修正后仅增加了2.9万人。此前没 有任何一位经济学家预计会出现下降。 6月私营就业意外萎缩，服务业承压显著 报告指出，面对特朗普政府贸易政策可能带来的影响，美国雇主们变得越来越谨慎，并正加倍努力削减成本。企业目前正专注于调整员工数量， 使其与今年放缓的经济活动更加匹配。 具体来看，在5月小幅减少2000个就业岗位后，商品生产企业在6月增加了3.2万个就业岗位。然而，服务业就业在6月份减少了6.6万个就业岗位， 主要归因于专业和商业服务以及医疗保健和教育领域的下降。 此次就业损失主要集中在小型企业。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson在一份声明中表示： "尽管裁员依然罕见，但上个月的就业损失反映出企业在招聘方面的犹豫不决，以及不愿填补离职员工空缺的现象。" 尽管招聘放缓导致就业岗位减少，但薪资增长的势头尚未完全中断。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the distribution of China's wealthiest entrepreneurs based on the "2025 New Fortune 500 Rich List," highlighting the top individuals and their respective net worths, as well as the geographical concentration of wealth among these entrepreneurs [3][8]. Distribution of Wealth by Province - Guangdong leads with 96 entrepreneurs on the list, followed by Zhejiang with 76, and Beijing with 70 [10][11]. - The total wealth of the top entrepreneurs from Guangdong is 29,855 billion yuan, while Zhejiang's total is 24,614 billion yuan, and Beijing's is 21,996 billion yuan [13]. Top Entrepreneurs - The top ten wealthiest individuals in 2025 include: 1. Zhang Yiming (ByteDance) - 4,815.7 billion yuan 2. Zhong Shanshan (Nongfu Spring) - 3,624.1 billion yuan 3. Ma Huateng (Tencent) - 3,067.1 billion yuan 4. Huang Zheng (Pinduoduo) - 3,057.4 billion yuan 5. Zeng Yuqun (CATL) - 2,726.8 billion yuan 6. Lei Jun (Xiaomi) - 1,025.3 billion yuan 7. Jack Ma (Alibaba) - 1,999.9 billion yuan 8. He Xiangjian (Midea) - 1,885.7 billion yuan 9. Ding Lei (NetEase) - 1,853.1 billion yuan 10. Liang Wenfeng (DeepSeek) - 1,846.2 billion yuan [7][8]. City Distribution of Entrepreneurs - Beijing has the highest number of entrepreneurs at 70, followed by Shanghai with 64, and Shenzhen with 58 [6][12]. - The wealthiest individuals in Guangzhou include: - Lv Xiangyang (Rongjie Group) - 1,134 billion yuan - Xu Yangtian (SHEIN) - 810 billion yuan - Chen Zebin Family (Libai Group) - 610 billion yuan [16][17][18]. Wealth Concentration in Guangzhou - The total wealth of the 18 entrepreneurs from Guangzhou is 4,995.6 billion yuan, with significant contributions from various districts [21]. - The industries represented by these entrepreneurs include manufacturing, e-commerce, retail, and investment [21].

信息科技及电信服务、医疗和医药、以及零售、消费品及服务相关的行业板块将会是市场焦点。 具体看来，上半年香港市场共有44只新股上市，其中42只在主板上市，主板新股以零售、消费品及服务 为主，占比为34%，其次为工业及材料与医疗和医药，各占23%。 普华永道预计，下半年，预期利好市场气氛将延续。目前，已经递交申请在香港上市的企业超过200 家，涵盖制造业、零售等传统行业，也有生物科技、医疗、人工智能等新经济行业，以及大型A股龙头 企业、中概股及海外企业亦积极赴港集资。 普华永道香港资本市场服务合伙人梁令欣认为，尽管地缘冲突、贸易关税等不确定因素依然存在，香港 IPO市场仍展现出明显的增长趋势，预计今年的新股市场将迎来近四年来最活跃的募资潮。 梁令欣提到，截至2024年12月，港交所在第18C章下有3家特专科技公司，在第18A章下则有67家生物科 技公司。2025年5月推出"科企专线"后，生物技术与制药产业受益显著，到2025年6月，生物科技公司的 上市量增至73家。此外，人工智能、信息科技和电信产业是另一个主要的成长领域。长期来看，创新医 疗保健和科技公司的比例将会进一步提高。 普华永道预测，2025全年将有90 ...

江门探索"六链 融合"，智引人 力活水精准滴灌 制造业_南方+_ 南方plus 展行动计划落地 实施，近日，江 门市人力资源服 务业与制造业融 合高质量发展交 流活动在珠西先 进产业优秀人才 创业创新园举 办。 活动特别邀请了 上海虹桥国家人 力资源服务产业 园运营总监、上 海中蕴咨询公司 董事长方晓作主 题分享及互动交 流，江门市政协 副主席赖燕芬， 江门市人社局党 组书记、局长文 丽，江门市人社 局班子领导及局 人力资源服务业 专班成员，蓬江 区、新会区、开 平市相关领导、 市直相关部门业 务负责人和各县 为探索推动人力 资源服务业与制 造业融合高质量 发展的有效路 径，进一步推动 江门市人力资源 服务业高质量发 （市、区）人社 部门相关领导参 加活动。 江门市人力资源服务业与制造业融合高质量发展交流活动在珠西先进产业优秀人才创业创新园举办 专家把脉： 以"人才活水"精 准滴灌制造业升 级 当前，江门市正 加快构建以实体 经济为支撑、科 技创新为引领、 具有国际竞争力 的现代化产业体 系，制造业作为 这一体系的核心 支柱和立市之 本，在转型升 级、迈向价值链 中高端的过程 中，对人才的数 量、结构和质量 ...

Core Viewpoints - The current consumer landscape in China shows a positive development trend, with a focus on enhancing consumption as a primary economic task [3][4][16] - The government is implementing policies to stimulate consumption, including financial support and strategic actions to transition from a "manufacturing powerhouse" to a "consumer powerhouse" [1][3] Consumer Development Trends - There is a rapid upgrade in consumer goods, with significant growth in service consumption sectors such as dining, culture, tourism, sports, and health [4][16] - New consumption highlights include inbound consumption, domestic "trendy" products, and digital consumption [4][16] Factors Contributing to Positive Consumer Trends - Increased income levels are releasing potential for service consumption, with a shift from survival-based spending to development and enjoyment-based spending [5][17] - Technological advancements are driving innovation in consumption models [5][17] - Improved supply levels are creating new demand opportunities [5][19] Policy Recommendations for Stimulating Consumption - Enhance consumer capacity by increasing labor remuneration and expanding the middle-income group [9][21] - Optimize the consumption environment through market regulation and consumer rights protection [10][22] - Reduce consumption restrictions in sectors like automotive and housing to promote market activity [11][23] - Improve supply quality by encouraging innovation in product development and service delivery [12][24] - Innovate consumption scenarios to meet diverse consumer needs through technology [13][25] - Strengthen modern circulation systems to enhance urban and rural commercial infrastructure [14][26] Challenges in Consumption Supply - Structural and technical challenges hinder the ability to meet evolving consumer demands [25][27] - There is a mismatch between high-end consumer demand and the supply of quality products [25][27] - Coordination issues within the supply chain affect responsiveness to market changes [25][27] Strategies for Enhancing Supply Efficiency - Focus on demand-driven supply chain reforms to align with consumer preferences for quality and sustainability [26][28] - Leverage digital technologies to improve supply chain transparency and efficiency [27][28] - Optimize the regulatory environment to reduce transaction costs and enhance market vitality [28][29]

时至年中，外资金融巨头陆续发布有关下半年的全球经济展望以及经济观察。 汇丰环球投资研究最新展望指出，国际局势风云变幻，全球经济或将面临更多下行压力。汇丰预计，2025年的 全球货物和服务贸易出口量增速可能下滑至同比1.8%，同期全球经济增速或放缓至2.5%。 "在尚不明朗的关税前景下，亚洲地区的出口及投资将双双承压，但区内众多经济体仍可采用扩张性宏观政策 来对冲部分影响。"汇丰称。 与此同时，汇丰认为，中国经济韧性依旧，"新一轮全球产业链重塑过程中，中国制造业将继续向'微笑曲 线'两端延伸，中国企业积极出海、获取更高附加值并深度嵌入全球产业链。" 多重不确定性延续 汇丰环球投资研究首席亚洲经济学家兼亚洲联席主管范力民（Frederic Neumann）表示，回顾上半年，受益 于"抢出口"效应的支撑，包括欧盟和中国在内的非美主要经济体今年一季度的经济增速超过了年初的市场预 期。 比如，中国最大的出口目的地从美国变成了东盟，而墨西哥则取代中国成为美国最大的进口来源国。对美国出 口增长迅速的国家，尤其是墨西哥和越南，过去几年间也吸收了大量的FDI（外商直接投资），与中资企业的 全球产业链布局息息相关。 刘晶还指出， ...

文︱陆弃 近日，德国企业破产潮不断升级，已达到十年来最高水平，数据显示，2025年上半年共有约1.19万家企 业宣告破产，涉及员工14.1万人。这组令人震惊的数字不仅揭示了德国经济正在经历的严重衰退，更暴 露出其深层次的结构性危机和对外依赖的脆弱性。而这一切背后，美欧之间复杂且充满不确定性的贸易 博弈，正如烈焰一般，烧穿了这个"欧洲经济引擎"的肌理。 德国经济曾被誉为欧洲的支柱，制造业和出口导向型经济模式长期支撑着其稳定增长。然而，这个曾经 的经济奇迹如今却陷入了沉重的困境。数据显示，企业破产率比去年同期激增9.4%，而这背后的根 源，绝非偶然。需求疲软、成本上升、全球贸易不确定性叠加，成为压垮这座经济大厦的最后一根稻 草。尤其是美国对德国商品出口的潜在关税威胁，更是给德国出口商蒙上了巨大的阴影，使得本就脆弱 的德国经济雪上加霜。 德国国内生产总值第一季度虽然小幅增长0.2%，但这并不能掩盖经济深层次的病症。作为德国最大的 贸易伙伴，美国与欧盟之间悬而未决的贸易谈判，充满了不确定性和对抗色彩。慕尼黑经济研究所指 出，关税威胁的阴云仍笼罩在谈判桌上，出口商的信心指数从5月的-5.0继续下滑至-7.4，明显表现出 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a V-shaped reversal with a slight increase on July 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39% [1][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1][4] - A total of 14965 billion yuan was traded in the A-share market, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, 18 sectors saw an increase, with pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and banking leading the gains, while comprehensive finance, computers, and retail saw significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market saw a general increase on July 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.91% [2][4] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.82% [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.2% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.27% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Central Economic Committee held its sixth meeting, focusing on advancing the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy [10][11] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs [14] - A series of national standards were implemented starting July 1, covering various sectors including proton exchange membrane fuel cells and electric vehicle battery replacement stations [16] - SEMI projected a shortage of approximately 1 million skilled workers in the global semiconductor industry by 2030 [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the US manufacturing sector remains sluggish in June, with new orders weak and input prices rising, suggesting that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to hinder businesses' planning capabilities [2] - The latest data shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly from May's six-month low of 48.5 to 49.0, marking the fourth consecutive month below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy [2] - Despite economic uncertainties, the labor market remains stable, as evidenced by an unexpected rise in job vacancies in May to the highest level since November of the previous year, with job openings increasing from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing economists' expectations [2] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3342.10 per ounce, down 0.23%, with a daily high of $3354.80 and a low of $3340.70 [3] - The short-term outlook for COMEX gold indicates resistance levels at $3380-$3390 and support levels at $3230-$3240 [3]