Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) is experiencing a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 3% to HKD 7.39, with a trading volume of HKD 13.98 million. The company anticipates a substantial decrease in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of approximately RMB 960 million to RMB 1.06 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53% to 48% [1]. - The anticipated net profit after deducting non-recurring items is also projected to be around RMB 960 million to RMB 1.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27% to 19% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between RMB 760 million to RMB 840 million, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 50% to 45% [1]. Operational Factors - The decline in performance is attributed to factors such as base maintenance and falling product prices [1]. - Despite the challenges, the successful commissioning of the second phase of the Jiujiang base project is seen as a positive development, laying a foundation for future project construction and supporting long-term high-quality growth [1].

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) is expected to see a significant decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with projections indicating a decrease of 48% to 53% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 9.6 to 10.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53% to 48% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is also projected to be around 9.6 to 10.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27% to 19% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be between 7.6 to 8.4 billion yuan, which indicates a year-on-year decrease of 50% to 45% [1] Operational Factors - The decline in performance is attributed to factors such as base maintenance and falling product prices [1] - The successful commissioning of the second phase of the Jiujiang base project is expected to support the company's project construction over the next three years and provide a foundation for future performance recovery and long-term high-quality development [1]

近日，西南气头化肥企业向《中国化工报》记者表示，目前作为其原料的天然气价格已达2.29元/立方 米，下个月就要到供暖季，按惯例气价还要进一步上涨，但尿素市场价格则已跌至1500元/吨。企业已 经难以继续运行，减停产将成为现实。 目前西南地区共有100余家气头化工企业，每年用气近100亿立方米。2024年，云贵川渝尿素产能约830 万吨。 相关企业告诉记者，肥企现在的情况是各家都有较高库存，尿素市场价格则已经跌破1600元/吨，降到 了1500元/吨。而企业的原料和公用辅料以及动力的成本就要超过1500元/吨，所以目前边际贡献全无。 为此，西南各肥企不得不陆续减产停产。因为在产品售价低于物耗成本的情况下，开得越多亏得越多。 对此，相关企业再次呼吁，西南气头化肥企业是春耕保供的重要力量;气头化工企业还是西南工业体系 的重要基础和支撑，既有战略价值，又有现实需求。希望国家对相关企业的生存发展多加关注，优化天 然气定价机制，使西南天然气化工产业链实现可持续发展。 "下个月将进入冬季供暖。在每年11月15日到第二年3月15日的冬季供暖季节，按惯例天然气价格都是要 上涨的。所以在这样的情况下，如果没有其他变化的话，我们1 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Urea Industry Weekly Report - Export Bottom - Seeking [1] - Report Date: October 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendation Core Contradiction - Urea's fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to export policies, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The industry's internal drive is weak in the short - term [2]. - Domestic mainstream regional quotes have dropped significantly by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, with North China's mainstream quotes ranging from 1,470 to 1,520 yuan/ton. The downstream compound fertilizer terminal's large - scale提货 did not start as expected during the holiday due to heavy rainfall in major grain - producing areas, which hindered autumn harvest and sowing, leading to weak downstream fertilizer demand and continuous price decline [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation as the export expectation for the 01 contract has disappeared. The 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [5]. Trading - Type Strategy Recommendation - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Price Range**: UR2601 is expected to trade between 1,550 and 1,750 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions are recommended to be established on rallies above 1,750 yuan/ton; reverse arbitrage is recommended for the 1 - 5 spread when it is above - 10 [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: Contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak unilateral trend. Attention should be paid to when the pre - National Day price - cut order - taking volume increases. Contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong contracts with peak - season demand expectations [12]. - **Spread Strategy**: The upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies; reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread is recommended on rallies [12]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: None [13] Group 3: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tenders on October 1, with the opening date on October 15 and the latest shipping date on December 10. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves [14]. - **Negative Information**: The daily output of the urea industry has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and in some periods, it exceeded 200,000 tons. Even when the daily output dropped to around 182,000 tons in late August and early September, it was difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. The continuous price decline has led to a lack of market confidence, and the market in September was still sluggish. Without the support of export and macro - sentiment, the market fundamentals have been tepid, resulting in a decline in downstream procurement enthusiasm [15] Next Week's Important Events to Follow - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on relevant rare - earth items. On October 10 (US Eastern Time), the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China in response to China's export controls on rare - earth items and export controls on all key software. Attention should be paid to new developments in Sino - US relations next week [16] Group 4: Disk Interpretation Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - The domestic urea daily output fluctuated slightly between 195,000 and 201,000 tons around the holiday. With the shutdown of factories in Shanxi, the Northwest, and Inner Mongolia, the daily output dropped to around 195,000 tons, but the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the total inventory of urea enterprises was around 1.4 million tons, a significant increase from before the holiday. Some urea factories had poor pre - holiday pre - orders, and new orders are urgently needed after the holiday [17]. - In the demand side, continuous rainfall in major agricultural provinces such as Shandong and Henan has postponed agricultural demand. In addition, large - scale shutdowns of regional compound fertilizer factories and the diminishing impact of previous Indian tenders and export speculations have led to cautious replenishment of rigid demand and weak downstream stocking willingness [18]. - The weak domestic demand is the current main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. Both compound fertilizer and industrial demand are weak, and the price drive is also limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [19] Industry Hedging Recommendation - **Urea Price Range Forecast**: The price range for urea is predicted to be 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [24]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to their inventory. They can also buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs. The recommended short - selling ratio for UR2601 is 25% in the range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the ratio for buying put options is 50%, and the ratio for selling call options (UR2601C1950) is 45 - 60 [24]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. The recommended buying ratio for UR2601 is 50% in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and the ratio for selling put options (UR2601P1650) is 75% [24] Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Analyzed the seasonal production costs of urea from fixed - bed, natural - gas, and water - coal - slurry gasification methods, as well as the seasonal production profits of urea from fixed - bed and water - coal - slurry gasification methods [25][27][30] Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - Tracked the seasonal daily output, weekly capacity utilization, weekly coal - based capacity utilization, and weekly natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea [33][34] Upstream Inventory Tracking - Tracked the seasonal weekly enterprise inventory, weekly Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and weekly port + inland inventory of Chinese urea [36][38][39] Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Analyzed the seasonal capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit of compound fertilizer, as well as the market prices, capacity utilization, output, and production profit of melamine in different regions, and the market prices of different types of compound fertilizers in different regions [41][43][54] Spot Production and Sales Tracking - Tracked the seasonal average production and sales of urea, as well as the seasonal production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [61][62][64]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 汪静 不过，化肥行业是一个周期性较强的行业，在本轮上行期后，刘甍又该如何带领公司寻找新方向？ 从"收废品"到上市公司掌舵人 公开资料显示，1970年2月，刘甍在四川省德阳市出生，1988年7月参加高考，顺利考进大连理工大学物理系。 1992年大学毕业，刘甍被分配到德阳，先后任职于德阳市对外经贸委、四川电力公司德阳供电局。 供电局经常有淘汰下来的废旧电线、变压器之类材料要处理，在处理废材期间，刘甍发现废旧材料利润不菲，显 然有着极大的市场潜力，创业之心悄然萌发。 一边是稳定的工作，一边是触手可及的新机会，一番纠结下，刘甍还是咬咬牙辞了职。1998年，他彻底投身废弃 材料回收行业。初创阶段他亲自跑市场拓业务，2001年在德阳注册南邡有色金属有限公司，将业务聚焦有色金属 回收，2004年又成立什邡市金诺金属有限公司。 期间他引入专业设备并聘请技术人员优化提纯工艺，提升了回收效率并降低成本，凭借规范运营和技术优势，成 为当地多家国企的废料处理合作商，生意规模逐步扩大。 在刘甍的带领下，深耕磷化工的川金诺（300505.SZ）又给市场带来惊喜。 日前，川金诺发布2025年前三季度业绩预告， ...

天眼查App显示，近日，青海红磷云天化肥有限公司成立，法定代表人为李彦九，注册资本10万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目肥料销售；化肥销售；生物有机肥料研发；复合微生物肥料研发；技术服务、 技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；农、林、牧、副、渔业专业机械的销售；农业 专业及辅助性活动；农作物种子经营（仅限不再分装的包装种子）；专用化学产品销售（不含危险化学 品）；生物农药技术研发；化工产品销售（不含许可类化工产品）；会议及展览服务；农产品的生产、 销售、加工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务；国内货物运输代理；道路货物运输站经营；销售代理；土壤 与肥料的复混加工；非食用盐销售；非食用盐加工（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开 展经营活动）。许可项目肥料生产；农药批发；农药零售（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方 可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以审批结果为准）。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea demand is weak, spot prices continue to decline, and futures follow suit. Low - level trading has improved but the sustainability is average. Insufficient domestic demand has led to inventory accumulation in factories, while port inventory has decreased slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. The market is currently affected by export sentiment, and attention should be paid to subsequent export policies and the procurement rhythm in Northeast China [2] Summary by Content Directory I. Price and Spread - Urea主力收盘1597元/吨（-12）；河南小颗粒市场价1530元/吨（-10）；山东小颗粒市场价1540元/吨（-10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1550元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-47元/吨（+2）；河南尿素基差-57元/吨（-18）；江苏尿素基差-37元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润10.0元/吨（-10.0）；出口利润982.4元/吨（+11.3） [1] II. Upstream Supply - As of October 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.67% (+1.97%) [1] III. Downstream Demand - As of October 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 25.50% (-6.96%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.47% (+4.0%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.00 days (-2.2) [1] IV. Urea Inventory - As of October 12, 2025, the enterprise in - factory inventory was 1.444 billion tons (+212,000), and the port inventory was 415 million tons (-38,000) [1]

本周尿素观点：偏弱运行 | 供应 | • | 2025年第40周 (20251002-1008)，中国尿素产量140.28万吨，较上周增加3.22万吨，环比涨2.35%；周均日产20.04万吨，较上周增加0.46万吨。周期内安徽、 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 陕西等省产量有明显增加，产量有明显减少的省份是宁夏。下周，中国尿素周产量预计132-133万吨附近，较本期明显减少。下个周期预计4家企业计划 | | | | 停车，1家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量减少的概率较大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑。此外，复 合肥行业近期产成品销售压力较大，开工率维持低位，对尿素原料采购需求较为有限，对高价尿素货源接受度低。 | | 需求 | • | 出口方面，目前三批次出口配额全部落地，尿素出口正常进行，预计9月及10月出口量维持高位。目前贸易商正在向工厂进行出口订单的提货来陆续集 | | | | 港。出口限价有所下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to three scientists for their pioneering contributions in the field of Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs), which opens new avenues for material science and addresses global energy, environmental, and health issues [1] - MOFs exhibit excellent physical and chemical properties, including high porosity, large specific surface area, and high thermal and chemical stability, making them suitable for various applications [2] - The report highlights the broad application fields of MOFs, including gas storage and separation, catalysis, energy storage and conversion, and biomedical applications, indicating a promising future for their industrialization [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector showed a mixed performance, with the CITIC basic chemical sector index rising by 0.8%, ranking 13th among all sectors [9] - The top-performing sub-sectors included phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (+5.9%) and potassium fertilizers (+4.9%) [11] 2. Key Product Price Tracking - Notable price increases were observed in aluminum fluoride (+5.86%) and various coated membranes [16] - The report also tracks price declines in products like naphtha (-3.60%) and urea (-3.09%) [18] 3. Sub-industry Dynamics - The report discusses various sub-sectors, including the polyester filament market experiencing price fluctuations and the polyurethane sector facing steady declines [19] - The fertilizer market is noted for its weak performance due to adverse weather conditions affecting agricultural activities [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. The main contradiction is the weak domestic demand. Even though exports are ongoing, the price - driving effect is limited due to sufficient pre - stocking by traders and high social inventory. The decline in domestic demand is the main factor causing the price drop, and it is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. In the medium - term, the trend is weak, and the lower - end valuation of urea will gradually approach the cash - flow cost line of the fixed - bed units of northern factories. The escalation of Sino - US trade conflicts and the weakness of the commodity index also drag down the urea price. [2] - The report suggests paying attention to the further development of Sino - US trade conflicts and whether China will adjust export - related policies due to the weak fundamentals and price of urea. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation: Price and Spread - There are charts showing historical data of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, JinKai, BoDa, DongPing), urea monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices (domestic including ZhengYuan small - particle urea, Hebei small - particle urea, etc.; international including Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Chinese small - particle urea FOB, etc.). [5][9][15][20] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity in 2025 continues. In 2024, a total of 427 million tons of new production capacity was added, and in 2025, 346 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be added. Many enterprises have new production capacity or device resumption plans, such as Tengzhou LuNan, Anhui QuanSheng Chemical, etc. [24] Production - In the 40th week of 2025 (October 2 - 8, 2025), China's urea production was 1.4028 million tons, an increase of 32,200 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%. The average daily production was 200,400 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous week. Next week, China's urea production is expected to be around 1.32 - 1.33 million tons, a significant decrease from this period. [2] - There are many urea production enterprises with maintenance plans, including Yankuang XinJiang Coal Chemical, Shandong JinMei MingShui Chemical Group, etc. Some maintenance plans are postponed, cancelled, or carried out as scheduled. [27] Cost - Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for Shanxi fixed - bed factories and historical data on the full - cost of urea in different production processes (air - flow bed, fixed - bed, natural gas). [31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. There are charts showing the cash - flow profit of urea fixed - bed units and the production profit of urea in different production processes. [37] Net Import (Export) - Export policies have been adjusted, and subsequent export volumes may increase. The report lists the monthly export data of urea from 2018 to 2025. [43] Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions and crops have different demand patterns throughout the year. For example, in September, there is a large demand for wheat base fertilizer. [49][50] - The construction of high - standard farmland has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. By 2025, a total of 1.075 billion mu of high - standard farmland is expected to be built, and 105 million mu is expected to be renovated and upgraded. [52] Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers are provided through charts. Currently, the compound fertilizer industry has high product sales pressure, low capacity utilization rate, and limited demand for urea raw materials. [56][57][58] - **Melamine**: There are charts showing the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine. [60][61] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for urea from the real estate industry's support for wood - based panels is relatively limited, but wood - based panel exports are resilient. There are data on the export volume of plywood, oriented strand board, and the cumulative values and year - on - year growth rates of real estate completion and construction areas. [62][63] Inventory - Factory inventory: On October 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4439 million tons, an increase of 212,200 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17.23%. During the National Day, due to continuous rainfall and weak industrial and agricultural demand, most urea enterprises had inventory build - up. [2][68] - Port inventory: As of October 9, 2025 (the 41st week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 8.39%. The departure speed of port goods accelerated this period. [2][68] International Urea - There are charts showing historical data of international urea prices, including Chinese large - particle urea FOB, Baltic large - particle urea FOB, Middle East large - particle urea FOB, and Brazilian large - particle urea CFR. [72][73][74][75]