1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was reported at 148,200 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit during the session, marking the largest single - day decline in the recent period. The supply expectation has improved marginally as some Australian mines have disclosed复产 or增产 plans and high prices previously suppressed some import demand. The procurement willingness of downstream cathode material manufacturers has rebounded, with some companies pricing at low points. The restocking behavior is mainly for pre - holiday rigid demand, and overall inventory preparation is basically completed, with limited subsequent increments [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 148,200 yuan/ton, down 16,620 yuan from the previous day and 33,320 yuan from the previous week; the settlement price was 153,980 yuan/ton, down 12,520 yuan from the previous day and 23,340 yuan from the previous week. Lithium spodumene prices from various regions also showed different degrees of decline, with Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate at 2,280 - 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 30 - 50 US dollars from the previous day and 10 - 10 US dollars from the previous week. The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 160,410 yuan/ton, down 7,470 yuan from the previous day and 10,640 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary materials and electrolytes also changed. For example, the price of ternary precursor (523) was 110,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 10,000 yuan from the previous week; the price of electrolyte (manganese - acid lithium) was 56,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan from the previous day and up 3,500 yuan from the previous week [8]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The report includes charts of lithium mica price changes, lithium carbonate futures main price, domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate price, lithium hydroxide price, lithium carbonate basis, and lithium hydroxide - lithium carbonate price difference [10]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts showing the prices of manganese - acid lithium, domestic iron - phosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [12][14]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The report presents charts of the main contract trading volume, main contract open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate futures [18][19].

Group 1: Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 178,964 yuan/ton on January 26, 2023, marking a week-on-week increase of 10,004 yuan/ton, with an average price of 181,500 yuan/ton, up 10,500 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1] - Since January 5, 2023, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has surged from 119,500 yuan/ton to 181,500 yuan/ton, representing a cumulative increase of 52% in less than a month [1] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has doubled in just six months, from below 80,000 yuan/ton in July 2025 to current levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The surge in lithium carbonate prices is driven by multiple factors, including tightened supply due to stricter resource regulation policies and increased demand from the energy storage market [2] - The revised Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, 2022, has raised the threshold for lithium resource extraction, leading to a significant supply contraction [2] - The energy storage market is experiencing unexpected growth, transitioning from administrative-driven "mandatory storage" to economically driven "investment return" models, with various provinces implementing capacity price compensation mechanisms [2] Group 3: Export Dynamics - The gradual cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to further drive up lithium carbonate prices, with a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation by January 1, 2027 [3] - Companies are preparing for a "rush to export" before the tax changes take effect, indicating a potential spike in demand and prices [3] Group 4: Cost Pressures in Downstream Manufacturing - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is closely linked to the manufacturing costs of energy storage cells, with a significant increase in costs observed [4] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 73,550 yuan/ton to 181,500 yuan/ton between October 10, 2025, and January 26, 2026, resulting in a 146.77% increase [4] - The theoretical cost of manufacturing a 314Ah energy storage cell has surged by 31.6% to 0.3683 yuan/Wh, while the market price has lagged behind, creating a "cost inversion" scenario [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current "cost inversion" situation is unsustainable, and as low-cost inventory is depleted, energy cell manufacturers will face increased cost pressures [6] - The price of 314Ah energy storage cells is expected to rise as manufacturers adjust to higher raw material costs, potentially leading to a price correction in the market [6] - The rising costs of lithium batteries may open a window for sodium-ion batteries as a viable alternative, with advantages in resource security and cost potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Yangtze River Delta region (Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui) has demonstrated strong economic resilience and growth potential, achieving significant GDP increases and maintaining its strategic position as a key driver of China's economic development [1][2]. Economic Performance - In 2025, the Yangtze River Delta achieved a GDP of 34.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.06 trillion yuan from 2021, with its share of national GDP rising from 24.1% to 24.7% [2]. - Jiangsu's GDP reached 14.24 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.3%, marking it as the second province to surpass 14 trillion yuan after Guangdong [2]. - Zhejiang's GDP was 9.45 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, positioning it as the fourth largest economy in China [3]. - Shanghai's GDP was 5.67 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4%, maintaining its status as the leading city in the country [3]. - Anhui's GDP reached 5.30 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, showcasing its rapid economic development [3]. Foreign Trade and Consumption - The Yangtze River Delta has excelled in foreign trade, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai ranking second, third, and fourth in national import and export totals, respectively [4]. - In 2025, Jiangsu's foreign trade reached 5.95 trillion yuan, while Zhejiang and Shanghai reported 5.55 trillion yuan and 4.51 trillion yuan, respectively [4]. - The region's foreign trade resilience is highlighted by a significant increase in exports of high-tech products, including electric vehicles and industrial robots [4][6]. - Shanghai's retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 1.6 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 4.6%, reflecting a strong consumer market [7]. - Jiangsu's retail sales reached 4.6 trillion yuan, with a growth of 3.3%, making it the largest in the country [7]. Structural Optimization and New Drivers - The Yangtze River Delta is transitioning towards innovation-driven growth, with Shanghai's leading industries showing significant production value increases [8]. - In 2025, Shanghai's manufacturing output grew by 9.6%, with the integrated circuit and artificial intelligence sectors seeing substantial growth [8][10]. - Jiangsu's high-tech industry accounted for 52.1% of its industrial output, with significant increases in the production of optical devices and lithium batteries [10]. - Anhui's high-tech manufacturing output grew by 30.4%, indicating a strong industrial growth trajectory [11]. - The digital economy is also accelerating, with Jiangsu's core digital manufacturing output increasing by 10.2% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 3.24% to 164,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 168,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 4,000 yuan/ton to 164,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 2,700 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 245 tons to 30,211 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 670 tons to 13,244 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 90 tons to 3,205 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 18 tons to 2,288 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons to 107,482 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,903 tons [3]. - The weekly data is basically in line with expectations. The spot transaction data is good, and there is still an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. However, the risk of short - term position disturbances is relatively large. In the medium term, without a clear negative feedback in demand, some upstream producers will conduct maintenance in the first quarter. The demand for export rush and Spring Festival stocking will still lead to an expectation of inventory reduction. Pay attention to the production schedule in February and be vigilant about the amplification of volatility and the impact of positions. If there is no new positive news, the price may face a correction risk [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 3.24% to 164,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4,000 yuan/ton to 168,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 4,000 yuan/ton to 164,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 2,700 yuan/ton to 163,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 245 tons to 30,211 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 670 tons to 13,244 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 90 tons to 3,205 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 18 tons to 2,288 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons to 107,482 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,903 tons [3]. - The weekly data is basically in line with expectations. The spot transaction data is good, and there is still an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. However, the risk of short - term position disturbances is relatively large. In the medium term, without a clear negative feedback in demand, some upstream producers will conduct maintenance in the first quarter. The demand for export rush and Spring Festival stocking will still lead to an expectation of inventory reduction. Pay attention to the production schedule in February and be vigilant about the amplification of volatility and the impact of positions. If there is no new positive news, the price may face a correction risk [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 164,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 162,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,860 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,168 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 15,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 17,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 168,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 164,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,000 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 163,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 168,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 153,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 20.4 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 144,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,300 yuan to - 5,000 yuan. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 2,384 yuan to - 20,667.16 yuan. The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials showed slight changes, and the prices of lithium - ion batteries also had corresponding fluctuations [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][23]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025/06/12 to 2026/01/29 [36][38]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2026 [41].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - As of January 28, 2025, 1,224 A-share listed companies have released performance forecasts, with 180 from the oil and chemical sector, indicating a gradual recovery in industry sentiment [1] - China's economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, with the total economic output surpassing 140 trillion yuan, providing support for profitability in the oil and chemical sectors [1] Group 2: Refrigerant Sector - The refrigerant industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity in 2025, supported by stable demand from downstream applications such as household and automotive air conditioning [1] - Leading companies like Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., and Juhua Co. are forecasted to see net profit growth in 2025, with Sanmei Co. achieving its best profit level in recent years [1] Group 3: Pesticide Sector - The pesticide sector is experiencing a positive trend, with companies like Limin Co., Runfeng Co., and Xinong Co. showing continuous improvement in performance [1] - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 471.55% to 514.57% in 2025, with a non-recurring net profit growth forecasted at 765.53% to 837.82% [1][2] Group 4: Chemical Industry Trends - The chemical industry is witnessing a recovery due to the end of capacity expansion and a rebound in raw material costs, alongside a recovery in demand [3] - The global lithium battery market is experiencing a strong resurgence, benefiting companies like Tianci Materials, Salt Lake Co., and Cangge Mining, which have reported performance increases for 2025 [3] Group 5: Challenges in Other Sectors - The photovoltaic sector is facing financial difficulties, with major companies reporting losses across the entire industry chain [3] - Several chlor-alkali companies have issued profit warnings for 2025, primarily due to declining prices of polyvinyl chloride [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding the inclusion of 14 new futures and options products for foreign traders marks a significant step in the opening of China's futures market, enhancing its international influence and pricing power [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Market Expansion - The CSRC has added 14 new futures and options products, increasing the total number of designated products for foreign traders to 38 [1]. - The newly included products focus on sectors where China has a strong consumption market or complete industrial chain advantages, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy materials [2]. - The inclusion of nickel futures and options is particularly noteworthy as it is the first directly open non-ferrous metal futures product, indicating a key step in the internationalization of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. Group 2: Nickel Futures and Options - Nickel is a critical strategic material for emerging industries, and China, being the largest consumer and importer of nickel, provides a solid foundation for the futures market's opening [2]. - The opening of the nickel futures and options market is expected to enhance risk management capabilities for the non-ferrous metal industry and attract more participants for price formation and risk management [2]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Collaboration - The newly added products in the chemical sector include core polyester industry futures and options, which are essential for China's leading position in the global polyester industry [4][5]. - By 2025, China's polyester production capacity is projected to reach 89.035 million tons, accounting for 60% to 70% of the global total, indicating a robust market structure [4]. - The internationalization of the polyester sector is expected to improve the global pricing system and meet the diverse risk management needs of domestic and foreign enterprises [5]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Futures - The inclusion of lithium carbonate futures and options in the designated products is significant for the lithium battery industry, which is crucial for energy storage and electric vehicles [6][7]. - The introduction of these products is anticipated to provide transparent pricing and enhance China's influence in international lithium resource trade [6]. - The ability for domestic and foreign enterprises to engage in futures trading will facilitate risk management and stabilize operational profits amid price volatility [7].

转自：成都日报锦观 报告提振信心 蓝图催人奋进 迈向"十五五"，如何坚持创新驱动，用好人才第一资源，让创新成为成都发展最鲜明的特色、最强劲的 引擎？"产业是人才集聚的载体，人才是产业升级的引擎。"在市人大代表、四川蜀祥金融服务有限公司 董事长张伟看来，可以强化本土人才培育，支持高校、职业院校与企业共建实训基地，定向培养技能 型、应用型人才，形成"产业需要什么人才，就培养引进什么人才"的良性循环。 政府工作报告提出，今年将坚持双碳引领、加快绿色化转型，全力推动公园城市增色添彩，如何抓好落 实？市人大代表、天齐锂业股份有限公司高级副总裁熊万渝已有思考。"锂电产业是推动能源结构转 型、实现'双碳'目标的核心支柱产业。成都可联动重庆、眉山、宜宾等周边锂电产业集群城市，协同建 立川渝锂电固废协同治理机制，搭建跨区域固废资源化利用合作平台，推动锂电产业固废资源化利 用。" "'十五五'规划纲要草案明确了今后五年全市经济社会发展的主要目标和重点任务。"市政协常委、成都 融通产业链创新中心理事长皮建军表示，"八个推进、八个提升"重点任务，为企业和各界下一步的发展 提供了清晰的路线图。就如何在推进科产深度融合上取得更大进展，他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a strong recovery driven by explosive downstream demand, with a significant focus on long-term contracts between battery manufacturers and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) suppliers, indicating a shift towards value competition in the industry [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total disclosed sales contracts for lithium iron phosphate have reached 9.3694 million tons since last year, with many contracts extending to 2030 or beyond [3][6]. - Major contracts include a 305,000-ton agreement between CATL and Rongbai Technology, estimated at 120 billion yuan, highlighting the trend of long-term supply agreements [8]. - The industry is witnessing a structural imbalance, with severe overcapacity in low-end products while high-end products remain in short supply [4][18]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - CATL has emerged as the largest buyer, signing contracts for over 7.5306 million tons of lithium iron phosphate since 2025, indicating a strong market position [8]. - Chuangneng New Energy has also made significant strides, securing a 130,000-ton order from Longpan Technology, making it the second-largest buyer after CATL [9]. - Hunan Youneng, previously a leading player, has not disclosed any long-term contracts recently, raising questions about its competitive strategy amidst the ongoing contract frenzy [10][12]. Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The focus of long-term contracts is shifting towards high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate products, which offer advantages in energy density and cycle life [15][16]. - The fourth-generation high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate is expected to enhance battery performance significantly, with a projected energy density increase of 15%-20% compared to third-generation products [16]. - Companies like CATL and BYD are actively developing high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate technologies to maintain competitive advantages in the market [17][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global demand for lithium batteries is projected to grow significantly, with an expected increase in output from 186 GWh in 2020 to 3,540 GWh by 2030, indicating robust market growth [9]. - The industry is entering a new phase of expansion, with multiple companies announcing plans to increase production capacity for high-end lithium iron phosphate products [19]. - The competition for high-end lithium iron phosphate is intensifying, with companies needing to keep pace with rapid product iterations from battery manufacturers to avoid being left behind [19].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - By 2025, global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2250 GWh, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector projected to grow at an impressive 48.3% [5]. - The demand surge will create substantial pressure on the supply of battery cells and four key upstream materials, highlighting a potential supply gap that needs to be addressed for stable and efficient supply chains [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, B2B procurement matching, and strategic insights for high-quality development in the lithium battery industry [5][6]. Group 3: Key Discussion Topics - The conference will feature discussions on lithium carbonate futures and options, market volatility responses from lithium battery companies, and the potential of global lithium resources in 2026 [7]. - Other topics include the opportunities presented by solid-state battery development for lithium salt companies and the practical aspects of lithium carbonate futures and supply-demand outlooks [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Collaboration - The summit aims to facilitate B2B procurement connections among top global battery companies and material suppliers, covering the entire supply chain from cathode materials to electrolytes [6]. - It will also provide authoritative data releases, benchmark company rankings, and deep industry connections to help businesses seize growth opportunities in the lithium battery sector [6].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 策略专题研究 证券分析师：吴信坤 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民 ...