Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival due to reduced market transactions and downstream restocking, while long - term policies need attention [1] - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by downstream holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [2] - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing is based on domestic sugar, while long - term it may seek the cost of out - of - quota imports [3] - Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term investment due to low initial inventory, expanding textile production, and favorable policies [5] - Egg prices have stopped rising and started to fall after pre - holiday stocking. The 05 contract is affected by farmers' chicken culling, and the supply pressure in the second quarter can be alleviated by observing the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens [13] - Apple inventory is decreasing faster during the holiday, with different price trends for different - quality fruits. The sales in the distribution area have not improved significantly [16] - Pig prices are weak in the short - term. During the pre - holiday period of increased supply and demand, inventory reduction pressure dominates, with medium - term pressure still existing and long - term inflection points providing support [16] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch Corn - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Changchun remained at 2,180, in Jinzhou increased by 10 to 2,290, in Weifang remained unchanged, and in Shekou increased by 20 to 2,450. The basis, trade profit, and import profit also changed [1] Starch - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2,750, in Weifang remained at 2,820. The basis decreased by 1, and the processing profit remained unchanged at - 83 [1] Sugar - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the price in Liuzhou remained at 5,370 (after the 9th), in Nanning remained unchanged, and in Kunming had no data on the 12th. The basis increased by 12, the import profit from Thailand increased by 32, and from Brazil also increased by 32. The number of warehouse receipts remained at 14,719 [3] Cotton - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the 3128 cotton price increased by 75 to 15,840, the import - related data had some changes, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 79 to - 977 [18] Egg - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Hebei decreased by 0.16 to 3.42, in Henan decreased by 0.10 to 3.45. The basis decreased by 230 to 485, and the prices of substitute products remained unchanged [12] Apple - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8,900, and the price of Shaanxi 70 general - quality apples remained at 4.00. The national inventory decreased by 56 to 531.51, Shandong inventory decreased by 138 to 218.35, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 60 to 140.40. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month bases also changed [15][16] Pig - Price data: From February 6 to February 12, 2026, prices in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10 to 12.33, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.05 to 12.05, in Shandong Linyi increased by 0.20 to 12.27, in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.25 to 12.45, and in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.30 to 12.40. The basis increased by 115 to 790 [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipment data for the week ending February 5th showed mixed results, with soybean exports falling short of expectations and soybean meal exports meeting expectations [1] - Conab raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, exports, and yield [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 10th decreased, and the country raised the reference price for March crude palm oil while keeping the export tariff unchanged [1] - China extended the anti - dumping investigation period on Canadian rapeseed imports until March 9, 2026 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export sales net increase for the week ending February 5th was 28.31 million tons, less than the expected 30 - 110 million tons. Exports to the Chinese mainland increased by 28.61 million tons. Export shipments were 112.88 million tons, a 19% decrease from the previous week and a 20% decrease from the four - week average. New sales were 37.76 million tons for the current market year and 0.13 million tons for the next market year [1] - U.S. soybean meal export sales net increase for the week ending February 5th was 35.7 million tons, meeting the expected range of 20 - 45 million tons. Export shipments were 32.64 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. New sales were 38.87 million tons for the current market year and 0 million tons for the next market year [1] - A private exporter reported selling 108,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Production Forecast - Conab expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record - high 177.98 million tons, up from the January forecast of 176.12 million tons. The yield was expected to be 3,675 kg/ha, up from 3,620 kg/ha in January, and exports were expected to be 112.19 million tons, up from 108.18 million tons in January [1] Palm Oil Information - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 - 10th, 2026 were 273,472 tons, a 16.10% decrease from the same period last month [1] - Malaysia raised the reference price of March crude palm oil to 3,896.09 Malaysian ringgit per ton (996.95 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton [1] Anti - Dumping Investigation - China extended the anti - dumping investigation period on Canadian rapeseed imports to March 9, 2026. The Ministry of Commerce will make an objective and fair final ruling based on facts and evidence [1] Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/06 | 3030 | 2440 | 8500 | 8980 | 9920 | | 2026/02/09 | 3020 | 2430 | 8500 | 8960 | 9900 | | 2026/02/10 | 3020 | 2430 | 8480 | 8890 | 9870 | | 2026/02/11 | 3060 | 2440 | 8490 | 8850 | 9880 | | 2026/02/12 | 3060 | 2450 | 8490 | 8720 | 9860 | [2]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of external strength and internal weakness is obvious. The external market is mainly boosted by the news of China's continuous purchase of US soybeans, and the potential biodiesel policy in the future may be beneficial to US soybean crushing. The Brazilian harvest continues to suppress the upside space of the external market, but the overall pressure may be smaller than expected. In the domestic market, the willingness of funds to leave the market is obvious, and soybean meal rebounded after falling to the previous support level, but the strength is less than that of the external market. After the holiday, pay attention to the auction of imported soybeans, the weather in Argentina, and whether there is news of trade purchases between China and the US. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The US soybean futures contract in the external market was strong today, with the main contract approaching 1150 cents. The recent trend of external strength and internal weakness is obvious. In the external market, it is mainly boosted by the news of China's continuous purchase of US soybeans. The market has gradually begun to price in China's additional purchase of 8 million tons of US soybeans in the future, and the US soybean exports may be increased. The potential biodiesel policy in the future may be beneficial to US soybean crushing, and the ending inventory in the future balance sheet may be slightly revised down. In South America, the Brazilian harvest continues to suppress the upside space of the external market, but due to the good domestic crushing demand, the selling sentiment of Brazilian farmers supported by the local currency is average, and the overall pressure may be smaller than expected. In Argentina, the weather has improved to some extent, but it is still in the critical growth period in the future, which needs continuous attention. In the domestic market, the willingness of funds to leave the market is obvious. Soybean meal rebounded after falling to the previous support level, but the strength is less than that of the external market, which is also affected by the pricing of the Brazilian soybean harvest. [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: After the holiday, pay attention to the auction of imported soybeans, the weather in Argentina, and whether there is news of trade purchases between China and the US. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [6]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued the 45Z proposed rule on Tuesday, aiming to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 per gallon tax credit for low-carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). Analysts pointed out that there are still some questions in the regulation that have not been answered [9]. - The USDA's monthly soybean crushing data report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second-highest level in history, with a crushing volume of 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024 [9]. - Crop experts expect the soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season to be 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the current USDA estimate of 48.5 million tons. The climate in the southern planting area of Argentina has become dry recently, and there will be insufficient rainfall in most of the next few weeks, which needs close attention. The soybean production forecast in Brazil in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged at a record 179 million tons, and there is a tendency to maintain or increase the forecast in the future [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex-factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, the price difference between soybean meal 1-5, the price difference between soybean meal 5-9, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][15].

Core Viewpoint - The consumption market is heating up ahead of the Spring Festival, with a flash event in Beijing showcasing specialty products from Guangdong's Shanwei, including fruits, seafood, and cultural products, enriching the pre-festival shopping experience [1] Group 1: Specialty Products and Market Trends - The event featured over 60 types of agricultural products from 12 local enterprises in Shanwei, many of which are entering the Beijing market for the first time [7] - Popular products included local fruits like oil olives and lotus fruit, which attracted significant consumer interest [1][3] - The lotus fruit, a new variety from Lufeng, has a sugar content reaching 14 degrees, highlighting the emphasis on quality and uniqueness in the offerings [6] Group 2: Consumer Preferences and Innovations - Consumers are increasingly favoring unique and high-quality goods, with a noticeable shift towards health-conscious options in the market [21] - The integration of modern technology in traditional products, such as the 100,000-ton aquaculture vessel "Guoxin 1," enhances product quality by simulating natural conditions for fish [11][13] - New product trends include health-oriented snacks and innovative food items, such as naturally derived sweeteners and probiotic rice, reflecting a growing demand for healthier choices [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The USDA raised the US corn export forecast to 3.3 billion bushels and lowered the ending stock forecast to 2.127 billion bushels in this month's supply and demand report. The global corn ending stock forecast was lowered to 288.98 million tons, which is lower than last month's 290.91 million tons and the analysts' average expectation of 290.48 million tons. The report data is slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, the import profit of Chinese buying ships remains good, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [3]. - In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of grass - roots farmers in the Northeast production area to sell grain is not high, the purchasing enthusiasm of drying towers has declined, and some drying towers have stopped purchasing. Feed enterprises have basically completed their pre - holiday stockpiling, and deep - processing enterprises have gradually entered the stage of production suspension and purchase suspension. The market trading activity is not high, and the price is mainly stable [3]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, corn starch production enterprises have gradually started maintenance, and the industry operating rate has declined. However, logistics transportation has significantly shrunk, and industry inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 3.02%, a monthly decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90%. From the disk perspective, boosted by the strengthening of corn, starch has risen synchronously, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2,320 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (5 - 9) of 4 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,572 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (3 - 5) of - 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1,220,455 lots, an increase of 45,782 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 71,986 lots, a decrease of 19,866 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 196,629 lots, a decrease of 22,526 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is - 38,429 lots, a decrease of 522 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 88,570 lots, and that of corn starch is 11,161 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 427.75 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1,740,882 contracts, an increase of 33,428 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 34,698 contracts, a decrease of 3,027 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2,022.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 52.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2,530.72 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 575 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 425.53 million tons, and the sown area is 36.44 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, and the sown area is 22.6 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, and the sown area is 7.5 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, and the sown area is 44.3 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 29 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory at southern ports is 704,000 tons, an increase of 199,000 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 5.127 million tons, an increase of 722,000 tons [2]. - The corn inventory at northern ports is 2.13 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 800,000 tons, an increase of 240,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3.0086 million tons, an increase of 30,700 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is 63 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 135,720 tons, a decrease of 2,820 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 71 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 58.03%, an increase of 0.6%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 55.68%, a decrease of 2.11% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.9%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, a decrease of 2.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.54%, an increase of 3.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.55%, an increase of 3.58% [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect that the report will show that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending February 5, 2026, may range from 600,000 to 1.2 million tons [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that the estimated corn export volume of Brazil in February 2026 is 953,000 tons, higher than the estimate of 793,000 tons a week ago, lower than 3.25 million tons in January, and lower than 1.317 million tons in February 2025 [2].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced the launch of a national-level overseas comprehensive service platform on February 11, 2026, aimed at enhancing the overseas service system for enterprises [4][5] - The upgraded platform features three main characteristics: increased authority of content, integrated comprehensive services, and improved user experience [5] - The platform now includes over 260 sub-columns, significantly enhancing service precision and practicality compared to the previous "going out" public service platform [5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce is focused on optimizing the regional layout of the silk industry, with a target of exceeding 300 billion yuan in total output value by 2028 [7] - The ministry plans to strengthen policy support and build cooperation platforms to facilitate the orderly transfer of the silk industry across regions [7] - Initiatives include enhancing technological advancements and organizing events like silk expos to promote regional cooperation and project implementation [7] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce is maintaining close communication with the U.S. on economic and trade issues, aiming for healthy and sustainable development of China-U.S. trade relations [8] - The ministry supports the negotiation process between Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers and the EU regarding tariff exemptions and pricing commitments [9] - The ministry is also addressing trade issues with Canada, including the anti-dumping measures on canola seeds, with a final ruling expected by March 9, 2026 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce addressed the anti-dumping case regarding Canadian canola imports, indicating ongoing negotiations between China and Canada to resolve trade issues in various sectors, including electric vehicles and agricultural products [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - During Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China in January, both countries agreed to address trade issues in electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, canola, and agricultural products [1] - Canada is expected to make positive adjustments regarding unilateral measures taken against Chinese electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products [1] Group 2: Anti-Dumping Case - The investigation period for the anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola has been extended until March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will issue a final ruling before the extended deadline, considering Canada's reasonable requests within the framework of regulations and based on facts and evidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "Trumpism" as an upgraded version of Monroe Doctrine signifies a strategic shift in U.S. policy aimed at consolidating influence in Latin America, posing a direct threat to China's growing interests in the region [1][3]. Economic Influence - China's economic ties with Latin America have deepened, particularly in sectors like oil from Venezuela, copper and cherries from Chile, beef from Argentina, and soybeans from Brazil, with significant material flows directed towards China [1]. - The U.S. is increasing its military and economic influence in Latin America, which threatens China's strategic investments and market expansion in the region [1][5]. - The U.S. faces challenges in controlling Latin American resources without a viable market to sell them, as evidenced by the situation in Venezuela where U.S. efforts to control oil resources have led to a loss of the primary buyer, China [5][10]. Geopolitical Dynamics - The geographical distance between China and Latin America complicates direct confrontation with the U.S., making it difficult for China to exert military influence or compel Latin American countries to choose sides [3][5]. - The U.S. strategy of leveraging its influence in Latin America is hindered by its own economic vulnerabilities, including a reliance on financial hegemony and a lack of sufficient domestic demand to absorb Latin American resources [5][10]. Resource Management - Venezuela's oil quality and high extraction costs limit its attractiveness to the U.S., especially when cheaper alternatives are available from Canada [7]. - China's ability to adjust its purchasing patterns for agricultural and mineral resources gives it leverage over Latin American countries, which may face market access issues if they oppose Chinese interests [8][11]. Strategic Implications - The U.S. must navigate a complex landscape where it seeks to reassert control over Latin American resources while facing the reality of China's entrenched economic position in the region [10][11]. - The potential collapse of Venezuela's economy could create significant challenges for the U.S., including increased risks related to migration, drug trafficking, and terrorism [8]. - The U.S. strategy of re-engagement in Latin America may ultimately prove ineffective unless it can break the region's economic dependency on China or decisively defeat China in financial warfare [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nearly 90% to 95% of Indian agricultural products are excluded from the trade agreement with the United States [1] Group 1 - The Indian Trade Minister highlighted significant exclusion of agricultural products in the trade negotiations with the U.S. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].