Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Information Soybean Production - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record 178 million tons according to ITAU BBA [1] - Brazil's Paraná state's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 2.196 million tons, stable compared to October's forecast and a 4% increase from the previous year according to Deral [1] Palm Oil Export - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 25, 2025, were 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month according to SGS [1] - Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September 2025, less than 2.26 million tons in the same period last year and 3.48 million tons in August this year according to GAPKI [1] Import Profit and Spot Price - The report presents import profit data for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from 2016 - 2025 [1] - Spot prices for palm oil in Guangzhou, soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 21 - 27, 2025, are provided [1] Basis and Price Spread - The report shows basis data for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil at different contract months and regions from 2020/2021 - 2025/2026 [1][3] - Price spread data for various oilseeds and oils, including seasonal spreads and regional spreads, from 2020/2021 - 2025/2026 are presented [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, due to low supply and downstream enterprises' restocking demand, corn prices will remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs will strongly support prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices and are pressured by high inventory. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Sugar: The global and domestic sugar supply is in a loose pattern. Maintain a short - selling strategy, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. - Cotton: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [9]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. - Apples: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. - Pigs: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, prices in different regions changed slightly. For example, the price in潍坊 increased by 10, while the price in other regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and trade profits also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply is low, and downstream enterprises need to restock, driving up prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price in some regions decreased, the basis decreased by 24, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7618 [6]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the cost of domestic sugar is the key support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the cost of domestic sugar may be broken through. The supply is loose, and the short - selling strategy is maintained, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the import profit, warehouse receipts + forecasts, and other data also changed [9]. - **Analysis**: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, and long - term long positions are suitable [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in some production areas increased, and the basis increased by 22 [12]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases due to the longer storage time. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis of different months had corresponding changes [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 95 [15]. - **Analysis**: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices decreased by 0.11% to $4157.61 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 0.07% to $53.3991 per ounce [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.28% to $4153.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose by 0.47% to $53.165 per ounce [1] - Platinum and palladium saw increases of 1.58% and 1.36%, respectively, with prices at $1614.24 and $1436.28 per ounce [1] Group 2: U.S.-EU Relations - The EU criticized the U.S. for allegedly using coercive tactics to weaken technology regulations in Europe, emphasizing that digital rules are a matter of sovereignty [1] - U.S. Commerce Secretary linked the adjustment of EU tech regulations to the reduction of tariffs on steel and aluminum products [1][2] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Leadership - Kevin Hassett is reported as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating a potential alignment with President Trump's interest in lowering interest rates [3] - Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's current rate policies [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 86.9%, with a 13.1% chance of maintaining current rates [4] - By January, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 67.3%, while the chance of no change is 9.6% [4] Group 5: Russia-Venezuela Cooperation - Russia and Venezuela signed multiple cooperation agreements across ten sectors, including energy, agriculture, healthcare, and finance [6] - Both countries emphasized their commitment to peace, stability, and fair trade on the international stage [6] Group 6: Egg Market Analysis - Recent trends show a rebound in egg futures prices due to improved expectations and stabilization in spot prices, with the average price rising to 2.91 yuan per jin [8] - Egg inventory levels have shifted from increasing to decreasing, indicating a potential tightening in supply [9] - The current egg supply remains relatively high, but the market anticipates a decline in production as the year-end consumption peak approaches [10]

近期，花生期货市场波动较大，在经历11月初的"四连阳"后，市场一度转弱，却又在近期重拾升势，主 力合约PK2601一度冲高至8220元/吨。这背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的市场逻辑？ "本轮花生期价上涨的核心驱动力，主要来自现货价格快速攀升与低成本陈货逐渐出清两个方面。"一德 期货分析师郑楠对期货日报记者说。 郑楠介绍，具体来看，花生东北产区基层收购价已逼近5元/斤大关，其背后存在三重支撑因素：首先， 本榨季东北花生虽实现丰产，但种用需求占比达10%，叠加前期抢购锁定了部分基层货源，导致阶段性 供需矛盾凸显；其次，由于基层对好货预期稀缺，加上河南产区质量有所下降，东北花生性价比优势显 现，惜售情绪不断升温；最后，在宽松信贷环境下，当地小贩持货成本上升，低价惜售意愿增强，进一 步倒逼价格走强。与此同时，河南产区花生虽受收获期连阴雨影响导致整体质量下滑，但在东北产区花 生涨价的带动下，其报价也呈现偏强震荡走势。 从油料米市场看，卓创资讯（301299）分析师严琳表示，当前油厂到货量环比增加59.32%，表明潜在 供应充足，油厂正通过控制质量与价格来稳定成本。截至11月27日，山东、河南油料米均价环比下滑 0.41%~0. ...

Core Points - Chile's Foreign Minister is set to visit Brussels to host the inaugural Chile-EU Joint Council, marking a significant milestone in bilateral relations [1] - The core agenda focuses on promoting and implementing the governance mechanism of the High-Level Framework Agreement signed in 2023, which has been approved by the Chilean Congress but awaits ratification from all EU member states [1] - A temporary trade agreement has been initiated, showing significant results with Chile's exports to the EU reaching $8.51 billion from January to October 2025, a 12% increase year-on-year [1] Trade Performance - Key products showing strong export growth include copper (up 44.3%), hazelnuts (up 226.1%), molybdenum (up 80.4%), and walnuts (up 77.1%) [1] - The implementation of the High-Level Framework Agreement is deemed crucial for Chile, as it aims to unlock the potential for political, economic, and sector-specific cooperation [1] Strategic Importance - The agreement is expected to strengthen the institutional framework of bilateral relations and create opportunities for attracting high-quality investments, promoting innovation, and building more competitive and sustainable value chains [1] - Chile anticipates that EU member states will expedite their ratification processes to enable the full effectiveness of the agreement [1] Additional Agenda Items - The Joint Council's agenda will also cover the evaluation of the outcomes from the EU-Latin America and Caribbean Community summit, progress from the COP30 climate conference, addressing transnational organized crime, and discussions on international peace and security issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza crisis [1]

Investment Chain - Since November, prices of tin, silver, and gold have increased. In October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to -1.70%, with real estate development investment declining by 14.70%. Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate fell to 2.7%, and infrastructure investment growth rate decreased to 1.51% [7][8] - In November 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while the price of thermal coal slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. The average price of ordinary cement has risen, and steel prices have decreased [7][8] Consumer Chain - The consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. In October 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.90%, with a cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate decline of 4.30%. The sales area of commercial housing in October saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -7.63% [8][9] - In October 2025, automobile sales decreased by 8.82% year-on-year, and home appliance retail sales fell by 10.25% year-on-year. In December 2024, tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year, while in March 2024, tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% [8][9] Export Chain - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States increased, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. Cumulative year-on-year growth rates for refined oil, coke, and shipbuilding increased, while exports of agricultural products, toys, furniture, lighting, coal, steel, plastics, auto parts, and aluminum decreased [9][10] - The export amount year-on-year growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports decreasing by 9.10% and machinery exports declining by 1.10% [9][10] Price Chain - In November, pork prices decreased, and oil prices also saw a decline. As of November 25, 2025, WTI crude oil price fell to 57.95 USD/barrel. The price of PVC dropped to 4400 RMB/ton, while the price of pure MDI rose to 19350 RMB/ton and the price of polymer MDI decreased to 14550 RMB/ton [10][11]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the meso - level rotation of commodities, aiming to combine "subjective + quantitative" concepts. It provides a theoretical foundation for subsequent model building [1][63]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The report emphasizes the construction of a dynamic cognitive system for investment. It analyzes the rotation phenomena and mechanisms in the equity and commodity futures markets, and constructs a research framework for macro - and fundamental - valuation rotation in the inventory cycle. It also quantifies the meso - level rotation targets as commodity "variety clusters" [1][63][64]. Summary by Directory 1. Significance of Meso - level Research - In the financial market, a dynamic cognitive system is needed for investment. Since 2022, the Chinese commodity futures market has changed, with lower volatility and reduced effectiveness of factors. Research on meso - level "commodity collections" can avoid co - decline risks, capture structural opportunities, and identify potential trends [3]. 2. Meso - level Rotation in the Equity Market 2.1 Rotation Phenomenon in the Equity Market - The size premium and value premium in the Fama - French three - factor model are core factors for explaining stock return differences, providing a theoretical basis for style rotation [4]. 2.2 Formation Mechanism: Cycle Alternation and Capital Game - **Cycle Alternation (Top - down)**: Style rotation in the equity market stems from the cycle of the economic cycle. Different stages of the economic cycle lead to different dominant styles, such as small - cap and growth styles in the early recovery stage, and large - cap and value styles in other stages [10][12]. - **Capital Game (Bottom - up)**: Style rotation is driven by the game between existing and marginal funds. Existing funds lead to style differentiation, marginal funds strengthen the style, and style conversion occurs when the valuation deviates from the fundamentals [15][16]. 3. Meso - level Rotation in the Commodity Futures Market 3.1 Rotation Phenomenon in the Commodity Futures Market - By analyzing the rotation speed, intensity, long - short suitability of the first and last positions, and the distribution of the first and last positions of commodity futures market indices, it is verified that there is a rotation phenomenon in the commodity futures market. The first - place average return is 5.79%, the last - place is - 4.43%, and the average difference is 10.22% [22][26][29]. 3.2 Formation Mechanism: Game between Reality and Expectation in the Inventory Cycle - The meso - level rotation in the commodity futures market is driven by the transfer of the main contradiction in the inventory cycle. Different stages of the inventory cycle have different logics, such as "reality - driven, expectation - following" in the passive de - stocking stage and "expectation - driven, reality - pressured" in the passive re - stocking stage [30][33][34]. 3.3 Dynamic Framework: Rotation of Macro - financial and Fundamental Valuations - A preliminary research framework for macro - and fundamental - valuation rotation in the inventory cycle is constructed based on Bayesian thinking. The reality side is represented by fundamental valuation, and the expectation side is represented by macro - valuation [40][44]. 4. From Sector to Variety Cluster Rotation - Sector indices have limitations, so variety clusters are introduced. By considering the industrial chain and return clustering, 16 variety clusters are divided, including those in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, agricultural, and precious metal sectors. The variety clusters have lower correlation and better risk - dispersion properties [49][57][60]. 5. Summary - The report combines "subjective + quantitative" concepts. It analyzes the rotation phenomena and mechanisms in the equity and commodity markets, constructs a research framework, and divides variety clusters, providing a theoretical basis for subsequent model building [63][64][65].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market showed a mixed performance on November 27, with platinum leading the gains, rising over 6%, followed by silver and tin with increases of over 3% and 2% respectively [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1481.51 points, up 9.37 points or 0.64% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Index closed at 2048.35 points, up 12.96 points or 0.64% [1] Group 2 - The precious metals sector remained strong, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which supported gold prices and consequently boosted silver and platinum prices due to supply shortages [2][3] - Tin prices surged over 2% due to concerns over supply disruptions from the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, with prices breaking the 300,000 yuan per ton mark [3] Group 3 - Agricultural products mostly rose, with eggs experiencing a significant rebound of over 2%, and various oilseed products increasing by over 1% [4] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.68%, with market sentiment weakening despite strong demand expectations and decreasing inventory [5] - Asphalt futures continued to trend weak, dropping by 1.41% due to declining demand as temperatures fell, leading to a subdued market [5]

Core Insights - The economic cooperation between China and Russia has yielded substantial results and has a promising outlook, benefiting the people of both countries [1] - The trade and investment structures between China and Russia are evolving from resource-based to more diversified sectors such as digital economy, agriculture, and manufacturing [1][2] Group 1: Trade and Investment - China's imports of crude oil from Russia reached 108.47 million tons in 2024, accounting for 19.6% of China's total crude oil imports, making Russia the largest supplier [2] - The automotive sector has seen significant growth in cooperation, with Chinese companies establishing local production in Russia to meet local demand for parts and services [2] - Agricultural trade between the two countries is rapidly increasing, with innovative cooperation across the entire supply chain, particularly in the Far East region of Russia [2] Group 2: Emerging Sectors - The digital economy and artificial intelligence are areas of potential growth, leveraging China's rapid application development and Russia's strengths in foundational sciences [3] - The green energy sector, particularly in hydrogen, solar, and wind energy, presents significant opportunities for collaboration between the two nations [3] - Mechanisms for regional cooperation are becoming more established, with initiatives linking Russian regions with Chinese counterparts to enhance trade and investment [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - The political trust, complementary trade structures, and geographical advantages between China and Russia are key factors driving successful economic cooperation [3] - With the easing of visa policies and increased flight routes, the prospects for collaboration in trade, tourism, finance, and industrial integration are expected to grow [3] - The economic partnership is not only beneficial for the two countries but also contributes positively to global economic stability and development [3]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.59%，报收 64.61 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13625 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面，宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着 | | | | 美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储 12 月降息 25bp 概率逐渐升温，目前 | | | | 已至八成以上。昨日美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。基本面方面， | | | | USDA11 月报公布后，市场仍缺乏新的锚点，美棉出口周报缺口时间较长，整体 | | | | 驱动因素有限，震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉主力合约减仓 1 万余手，仍 | | | | 在当前压力位震荡。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当 ...