2025 年 5 月 6 日 公司研究 持续调整，静待改善 ——良品铺子（603719.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：良品铺子发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 全年实现营业收入 71.59 亿元，同比-11.02%；归母净亏损 0.46 亿元，23 年同期盈利 1.80 亿元； 扣非归母净亏损 0.75 亿元，23 年同期盈利 0.65 亿元。其中，24Q4 单季度实现 营业收入 16.79 亿元，同比-17.95%；归母净亏损 0.65 亿元，23 年同期亏损 0.11 亿元；扣非归母净亏损 0.72 亿元，23 年同期亏损 0.57 亿元。25Q1 实现营业收 入 17.32 亿元，同比-29.34%；归母净亏损 0.36 亿元，24 年同期盈利 0.62 亿元； 扣非归母净亏损 0.40 亿元，24 年同期盈利 0.55 亿元。 春节错期叠加竞争加剧，各业务条线持续调整。分渠道看，25Q1 公司营收端仍 处于调整期，公司线上/线下渠道分别实现营业收入 9.01/10.38 亿元，同比 -30.00%/-28.83%。线上渠道受电商平台整体流量下滑及春 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanchen Group (300972) experienced a significant drop in stock price, falling over 8% at one point, closing down 6.59% at 153.9 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 27.7 billion CNY. This decline comes after a period of record highs for the stock, reflecting volatility in the A-share market related to domestic consumption stocks [1][4]. Company Performance - Wanchen Group focuses on the bulk snack and edible mushroom business, with a daily production capacity of 379 tons for edible mushrooms, ranking among the top in the domestic industry [4]. - The company reported a net profit of 294 million CNY for 2024, marking a turnaround from losses, and achieved a net profit of 215 million CNY in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 33.44 times [4]. Market Context - The A-share market has seen a surge in domestic consumption stocks, with other notable performers including Yizhi Mogu, Yipin Hong, Huisheng Biological, Rejing Biological, and Anbiping [4]. - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and investment efficiency, with specific measures to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment, aiming to stimulate domestic demand [4][5]. Policy Support - Recent government meetings in Shanghai and Guangdong have outlined targeted actions to stimulate consumption, including expanding service and exhibition consumption, and promoting domestic and inbound tourism [5]. - Jiangxi province has committed to expanding domestic demand comprehensively, focusing on major project construction and innovative consumption models to enhance market vitality [5].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the new consumption sector is driven by demand upgrades, technological changes, and policy support, creating significant investment opportunities in the market [12]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "May Day" holiday saw a surge in consumer activity, with events like the Guangzhou Firefly Exhibition and various pop-up events in Shanghai attracting large crowds, particularly among the Z generation [2][4]. - New consumption scenarios are invigorating the market, with a focus on "self-indulgent" and "emotional" consumption trends led by younger consumers [4][6]. - Fund managers are increasingly recognizing the potential of the new consumption market, with some actively researching and investing in related companies [4][6]. Group 2: Stock Performance - New consumption concept stocks have become a focal point for capital, with significant stock price increases observed in companies like Lao Pu Gold, Wei Long, and Pop Mart, with some stocks doubling in value [5][10]. - In the A-share market, leading companies in the snack and pet economy sectors have also seen substantial stock price increases, with Wanchen Group's stock price doubling and Zhongchong shares rising by 58% [5][10]. - The upcoming wave of restaurant industry IPOs is expected to further enhance market dynamics, with companies like Mixue Group and Gu Ming achieving significant stock price increases post-IPO [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are shifting their focus from traditional consumption growth to identifying structural opportunities within the new consumption sector, which is characterized by high engagement and demand for personalized products [9][12]. - The performance of funds heavily invested in new consumption stocks, such as Guangfa Growth Navigator and Hengyue Craftsman, has been strong, with net asset values increasing significantly [9][10]. - The new consumption sector is seen as a key investment theme for the year, with fund managers planning to continue exploring opportunities in areas like trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet products [13].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

Core Points - The FBIF Food Innovation Exhibition (FBIF Super Selection Conference) will take place from May 8-10, 2025, at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, featuring over 600 exhibitors and attracting more than 47,000 attendees [1][52]. - The exhibition will showcase over 2,000 innovative products and host the FBIF 2025 Food and Beverage Innovation Forum with more than 200 speakers and judges [1][52]. Exhibition Details - The exhibition will be held in halls 4.2, 5.2, and 6.2 of the National Exhibition and Convention Center, located at 333 Songze Avenue, Qingpu District, Shanghai [4][44]. - The exhibition hours are from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM on May 8-9 and from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM on May 10 [3]. Exhibitor Activities - Various exhibitors will host activities, including product tastings, brand membership promotions, and interactive games [5][12][18]. - Notable exhibitors include Innova Market Insights, which will present global food and beverage trends and insights into functional beverage innovations [8][10]. Audience Engagement - The exhibition will offer free admission tickets for consumers on May 10, while professional attendees can register for a three-day ticket [45][48]. - Attendees can participate in various interactive activities and receive promotional gifts by engaging with exhibitors [16][30][32]. Industry Focus - The exhibition aims to provide a professional platform for food companies to showcase innovations and foster industry development, covering sectors such as dairy, beverages, snacks, and functional foods [51][52].

大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 1 ）啤酒： 25Q1 收入同比 +4% 、净利润同比 +11% ， 销量景气修 复吨价承压，成本优势利润率持续改善。 2 ）软饮料： 25Q1 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +1% ，继 续保持较好景气度，龙头亮各有亮点。 3 ）零食： 食品综合板块分化明显，其中新渠道和新品类驱动下 零食成长性凸显， 24Q4 、 25Q1 收入分别同比 +18% 、 +2% ， 25Q1 受高基数和春节提前等因素影 响业绩增速阶段性下滑。 4 ）乳制品： 2024 年（ A 股）收入同比 -7% 、净利润 -27% ，度过调整期 后 25Q1 景气度和毛销差边际改善。 5 ）调味品： 2024 年板块收入边际改善， 25Q1 业绩稳步增长， 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +7% 、毛利率同比 +1.6pct 。 6 ） 餐饮供应链： 竞争加剧导致 2024 年 板块利润承压， 25Q1 收入同比 -5% 、利润同比 -13% 环比降速。 风险提示： 消费复苏不及预期、市场竞争加剧、成本进一步上涨、食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月5日发布的 结构分化，重视成长——食品饮 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight decline in the food and beverage index by 0.5%, ranking 13th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.1 percentage points. Other liquor categories (+2.2%), dairy products (+1.4%), and snacks (+1.4%) performed relatively well [10][12] - The food and beverage sector's revenue grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, a slight decrease from 6.6% in Q4 2024. Profit increased by 0.3%, a significant improvement from the -13.0% in Q4 2024. The liquor segment saw a revenue growth of 1.7% in Q1 2025, slightly up from 1.2% in Q4 2024, indicating resilience in consumption during the Spring Festival [10][11] - The report highlights a divergence in performance within the liquor industry, with high-end liquor and leading real estate liquor brands maintaining stable performance, while some mid-range brands experienced significant declines. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in liquor consumption as economic policies take effect [10][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report notes a pressured tone in Q1 results but indicates a month-on-month improvement. The food and beverage index's performance is under scrutiny, with specific attention to the liquor sector's resilience [10][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market, with a 0.5% decline in the index. The report identifies leading stocks and those that lagged behind, emphasizing the need for strategic focus on top-performing companies [10][12] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with specific data on dairy and meat prices indicating fluctuations that could impact the overall cost structure for food and beverage companies [17][23] Liquor Industry News - Notable developments include the pre-sale of Moutai's 2025 Dragon Boat Festival gift box and the launch of new products by Qingdao Beer, reflecting ongoing innovation and market engagement within the liquor sector [41][42] Memorandum - The report includes a memorandum highlighting significant upcoming events, such as the unlocking of restricted shares for Angel Yeast on May 9, which could influence market dynamics [43]

Core Viewpoint - The snack sector is expected to experience a slight decline in net profit margin in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points to 6.6%, primarily due to rising costs and increased expenditure by some companies to support market expansion, leading to short-term profit pressure. However, long-term profitability is expected to improve due to production efficiency and management enhancements, as well as the strengthening of major product advantages [1][2]. Group 1: 2024 and Q1 2025 Operational Review - In 2024, the snack sector is projected to achieve revenue of 54.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with companies embracing new channels and maintaining strong growth momentum. However, Q1 2025 revenue is expected to decline by 5.3% year-on-year to 14.42 billion yuan, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting quarterly performance, particularly for companies with significant gift-giving attributes [1][2]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - The snack sector is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 3.63 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1%. However, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 are expected to see significant declines in net profit, with year-on-year decreases of 15.5% and 33.6%, respectively, due to rising costs and limited scale effects from the Spring Festival [2]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The growth of the snack industry is increasingly driven by channel transformation, with rapid expansion of discount snack stores and the rise of platforms like Douyin. The retail channel is expected to continue evolving in 2025, with discount formats expanding and supermarkets adjusting their operations to enhance efficiency and product differentiation [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include: 1) Salted Fish (002847.SZ): Benefiting from the explosive demand for konjac products and strong brand-building capabilities 2) Wei Long Delicious (09985): Leading company in the konjac category with rapid growth 3) Youyou Food (603697.SH): Actively expanding into new channels with member products 4) Three Squirrels (300783.SZ): Opening up offline market space through distribution and expanding beverage categories 5) Good Idea (002582.SZ): Improvement in core business driven by cost advantages [4]. - Short-term focus on undervalued companies with growth potential includes: Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ), Jinzhai Food (003000.SZ), and Qiaqia Food (002557.SZ) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and recommendations of various stocks by securities firms, emphasizing the strong returns of selected stocks and the sectors favored by analysts, particularly in domestic consumption, growth technology, and dividend assets [1][4][13]. Group 1: Stock Recommendations - As of May 1, 16 securities firms recommended a total of 115 stocks, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, growth technology, self-sufficiency, and dividend assets [1][4]. - Notable stocks recommended by multiple firms include Haida Group and Dongpeng Beverage (4 firms), and Kaiying Network, Zhaoyi Innovation, Gree Electric, and Proya (3 firms) [6][7]. - Wanchen Group saw a significant increase of approximately 82% in its stock price in April, making it the best-performing stock among the recommended ones [1][3]. Group 2: Performance and Financials - Wanchen Group reported a net profit of 215 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3344.13%, attributed to enhanced scale advantages in its snack business and improved operational efficiency [3]. - Haida Group is recognized as a leading player in the domestic agricultural and animal husbandry industry, with significant growth potential due to the recovery of livestock production capacity and market share expansion [7]. - Dongpeng Beverage is preparing for a Hong Kong listing, with analysts noting its stable performance in the beverage sector and rapid growth in its electrolyte drink segment [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts expect the market to stabilize and trend upwards in May, driven by positive economic indicators and policy support [13][14]. - The focus remains on sectors such as new technology, industry themes, and domestic consumption, with a recommendation for a "barbell" investment strategy that balances growth technology and stable dividend assets [15].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei, a leading brand in the Chinese fruit snack industry, is preparing for a secondary IPO with a pre-IPO valuation exceeding 2.2 billion yuan, driven by its strong market position and innovative product strategies [2][12]. Company Background - Founded by Yang Fan, Liu Liu Mei has evolved from a small workshop to a major player in the fruit snack market, achieving annual sales of 2 billion green plums [2][4]. - Yang Fan's entrepreneurial journey began at the age of 19, leading to the establishment of Liu Liu Mei in 2006 after identifying a gap in the domestic market for processed green plum products [5][6]. Product Development and Market Position - Liu Liu Mei has maintained its position as the top brand in the Chinese fruit snack sector, with a market share of 4.9% in fruit snacks, 45.7% in natural jelly, and 7% in plum products as of 2024 [6]. - The company has diversified its product line, introducing the "Mei Dong" sub-brand, which generated 410 million yuan in revenue in 2024, accounting for 25.4% of total revenue [5][8]. Financial Performance - Liu Liu Mei's revenue grew from 1.174 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.616 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.2%, while net profit increased by 117.6% during the same period [8]. - The core product, dried plums, continues to contribute over 60% of total revenue, with the "Mei Dong" product line showing significant growth potential [8][9]. Capital and Investment - Liu Liu Mei has completed four rounds of financing, with notable investments from Sequoia China, which initially invested 135 million yuan in 2015 [11][12]. - The latest round of financing in June 2024, prior to the IPO, involved investments from Huazhang Fund and Xingnong Fund, raising the company's valuation to approximately 2.2 billion yuan [12]. Competitive Landscape - The company faces intense competition from major players like Three Squirrels and Good Products, which are expanding their product lines to include plum snacks [13]. - Liu Liu Mei's strategy includes high-end branding and market penetration through collaborations with retailers like Sam's Club and Hema, as well as leveraging social media for direct consumer engagement [9][13]. Future Strategy - The company plans to invest 500 million yuan to expand its production capacity for "Mei Dong," 300 million yuan for product development, and 200 million yuan to enter Southeast Asian markets [13]. - Liu Liu Mei aims to achieve 100% traceability in its green plum sourcing by 2027 as part of its ESG strategy [13].