2025 年 07 月 24 日 策略研究团队 "反内卷"的行情阶段，及后续展望 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 深度解析"反内卷"行情的持续性 反内卷行情持续发酵存在三大原因：①反内卷政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。②反内卷行业筹 码干净，存在较强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的反内卷行业，基金 配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比例，筹码出清干净。③当前市场风险偏好高位， 对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力增强、投资者活跃度提升， 以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动 A 股走强的核心动因。以上三点也 构成了反内卷的三大优势，也解释了近期反内卷行情能持续发酵的原因。 然而，市场对反内卷仍然存疑：是否存在强有力的财政支持？狭义的"反内卷" 行情更多可以理解为一种收缩型政策，无论对总量还是结构，带来的效果更容易 是"触底"，而非"反转"。在高质量发展的时代背景下，较难出现一次性的花大 价钱办大事，反内卷 ...

硅业分会单晶硅片周评：本周硅片价格继续上行 《科创板日报》24日讯，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布单晶硅片周评。本周硅片价格继续上行。 其中，N型G10L单晶硅片(182*183.75mm/130μm)成交均价在1.1元/片，环比上周上涨4.76%；N型G12R 单晶硅片(182*210mm/130μm)成交均价在1.25元/片，环比上周上涨8.70%；N型G12单晶硅片(210*210 mm/130μm)成交均价在1.44元/片，环比上周上涨6.67%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silicon wafers continues to rise due to positive market sentiment driven by supply constraints and increased demand from downstream battery manufacturers [1][2] Group 1: Silicon Wafer Prices - The average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm/130 μm) is 1.1 yuan per piece, up 4.76% week-on-week [1] - The average transaction price for N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130 μm) is 1.25 yuan per piece, up 8.70% week-on-week [1] - The average transaction price for N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/130 μm) is 1.44 yuan per piece, up 6.67% week-on-week [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in silicon wafer prices is attributed to rising raw material prices for polysilicon, leading manufacturers to raise prices amid increased costs [1] - A slight decrease in market supply is noted as wafer manufacturers begin to implement production cut plans [1] - Downstream battery manufacturers are starting to accept price increases for silicon wafers, resulting in an increase in purchasing orders [1] Group 3: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate in the industry remains stable compared to last week, with two leading companies operating at 50% and 40% capacity [1] - Integrated companies are operating at 50%-80% capacity, while other companies are also in the 50%-80% range [1] Group 4: Downstream Price Movements - The mainstream price for battery cells is 0.26-0.27 yuan/W, up 0.02 yuan/W week-on-week [2] - The mainstream price for components is 0.66-0.67 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W week-on-week [2] - Future trends in silicon wafer prices will largely depend on how much downstream components can absorb the increased costs [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 14.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 85% [1] - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.65 billion kW, with solar power capacity at 1.1 billion kW, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.2% [1] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours compared to the same period last year, totaling 1504 hours [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Canadian Solar has established a silicon company to enhance its vertical integration and cost control in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The new company, Uratqi Haoxi Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., was registered on June 17 with a capital of 1 million yuan and is fully controlled by Canadian Solar [2] - Highview Solar has commenced mass production of its 2 GW BC module project, achieving an efficiency of 24.6% [3] - The BC modules utilize cells from Aiko Solar and feature proprietary packaging technology to enhance efficiency and durability [3] - Highview Solar plans to build an additional 1 GW BC module production line in Yibin, Sichuan, which has completed environmental assessment [3] Group 3: Investment Decisions - Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has decided to suspend further investment in its 10 GW N-type ultra-high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon wafer project due to market conditions [4][5] - The company has already invested approximately 340 million yuan into its subsidiary, Anhui Fuxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which has established a production capacity of about 1.5 GW N-type wafers [5] - The decision to halt additional investment is based on price fluctuations in the silicon wafer industry and a temporary mismatch in overall photovoltaic market capacity [5]

7月24日，国金证券新能源与电力设备行业首席分析师姚遥在光伏行业供应链发展(大同)研讨会上表 示，在光储系统成本大幅下降的背景下，预计光伏新增装机区域分布将持续多元化。中国、欧洲、美国 三大传统市场因体量较大，装机增速将逐渐平稳，而中东、中亚、南亚、拉丁美洲、非洲等地区因能源 转型、资源优势等因素，有望在低基数下实现高速增长。预计2025年光伏新增装机维持5%—10%的增 速，光伏组件需求有望得以提升。(中证金牛座) ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report highlights that a new round of "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" is about to be released, which will accelerate capacity structure optimization in the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on cyclical recovery and supply-side optimization [6] - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost investment opportunities in various segments of the chemical industry, particularly in civil explosives, all-steel tires, cement, and specialty chemicals [6] - The TDI market is experiencing upward price pressure due to Covestro's forced production halt following an electrical fire, with TDI prices rising to 14,913 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30.82% increase compared to the previous month [6] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Juhua Co., Haohua Technology, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, Hubei Yihua, and Tongyi Zhong [6] - In the civil explosives and all-steel tire sectors, companies like Sailun Tire, Linglong Tire, and Wind God Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the unmanned mining truck market, with a projected sales penetration rate increasing from approximately 6% in 2024 to over 50% by 2030, indicating explosive growth [10][12] Group 3: Market Trends - The report notes that the domestic market for unmanned mining trucks is entering a rapid scaling phase, with a compound annual growth rate of 305.8% expected from 2022 to 2024 [10] - The global market for unmanned mining solutions is projected to grow from 700 million USD in 2024 to 8.1 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.0% [12] - The report indicates that traditional mining trucks are in a highly competitive field, with major international players holding over 90% of the market share, presenting a significant opportunity for domestic companies to replace traditional models with unmanned solutions [10]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is gaining momentum in the solar industry, with the photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) rising nearly 1.5% and experiencing a net inflow of funds for five consecutive days, totaling over 2.4 million shares subscribed during the day [1] - The Central Financial Committee has reiterated the need to strengthen the market mechanism for survival of the fittest and to facilitate the exit of inefficient production capacity, emphasizing the importance of industry self-discipline to prevent "involutionary" competition [1] - A meeting held on October 14, 2024, by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association with 16 leading solar companies established a minimum cost price of 0.68 yuan/W for solar modules, marking a clear boundary against bidding below cost, which is deemed illegal [1] Group 2 - The 15th Manufacturing Enterprises Symposium on July 3, 2025, highlighted the need for legal and comprehensive governance of low-price disorderly competition in the solar industry, indicating a potential positive outlook for the solar industry chain under the "anti-involution" initiative [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing confidence in the photovoltaic industry driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which has led to a surge in investment enthusiasm for photovoltaic ETFs [1][2] - The photovoltaic ETF (515790) has seen significant trading activity, with a cumulative net inflow of 2.992 billion yuan since July, and an average daily trading volume of 828 million yuan [1] - The latest share count for the photovoltaic ETF has reached 19.047 billion shares, with a total scale exceeding 14.049 billion yuan, marking a historical peak for the fund [1] Group 2 - The price of silicon materials has shown a notable increase, with a maximum rise of 13.47% recently, indicating a positive impact on the cost structure across the entire photovoltaic industry chain [1] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing supply-side reforms, with expectations of price adjustments across the supply chain, particularly in polysilicon futures and silicon wafer costs [1] - The release of the international standard for distributed photovoltaic power generation systems enhances China's leading position in the global photovoltaic industry [1][2] Group 3 - The photovoltaic ETF tracks an index that covers the entire photovoltaic industry, selecting up to 50 representative companies, with the top five holdings being leading firms in the sector [2] - The ETF has a large scale and favorable liquidity, with over 220,000 investors holding shares, making it a significant player in the market [2] - The ETF was established on December 7, 2020, and was the first in the photovoltaic sector to be included in margin trading [2]

Core Insights - The transformation of the once barren land in Qinghai into a thriving solar energy hub demonstrates the successful integration of technology and ecology, showcasing a model for sustainable development [1][3] - Qinghai's clean energy capacity has reached 94.6% for installed capacity and 84.5% for green electricity generation, leading the nation in both metrics [1] - The establishment of the Hainan Prefecture's new energy base aims for a total investment of 167.1 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a target of 30.66 million kilowatts of clean energy installed [1] Group 1 - The solar photovoltaic park in Taratang has significantly reduced wind speed by 50% and soil moisture evaporation by 30% over three years, while vegetation coverage has recovered to 80% [3] - The area has seen the restoration of 14,900 hectares of desertified land over five years, indicating a successful ecological recovery [3] - The "photovoltaic + livestock" model has been developed, enhancing the local pastoral industry and increasing income for herders [3] Group 2 - The region has built 32 ecological photovoltaic pastures and 2,100 acres of ecological photovoltaic forests, promoting a diversified clean energy development model [3] - The innovative approach of utilizing solar panels for sheep farming has been recognized as a valuable development experience worth replicating [3] - The visual transformation of the Taratang area into a "blue photovoltaic ocean" symbolizes the synergy between technology and nature, contributing to ecological protection and high-quality development [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights that most primary industries in the A-share market are experiencing intense competition, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector compared to upstream resource products [1] - It notes that the willingness to expand production has dropped to a low point across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1] - The report emphasizes different signals for capacity clearance in traditional versus emerging industries, focusing on improving expansion capabilities for traditional sectors and low expansion willingness for emerging sectors [1] Existing Capacity Utilization Levels - The methodology for measuring industry capacity utilization is based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, assessing the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor conditions [8] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historical low levels of capacity utilization, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [8][9] Potential Incremental Capacity Levels - The report evaluates potential new capacity based on two dimensions: willingness to expand and capacity to expand. The willingness is measured by the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation, indicating active investment in expansion [9] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historical low levels of expansion willingness, with only utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals showing relatively strong willingness [9] - The capacity to expand is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow conditions, with most primary industries at historical mid-high levels of expansion capacity [9] Historical Capacity Clearance Patterns - Emerging industries signal clearance through cash capability and low expansion willingness. The report references the solar industry's overcapacity from 2011 to 2015, where capacity utilization rapidly declined and remained low until cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to zero [10][12] - Traditional industries signal clearance through improvements in cash capability. The steel and coal industries experienced a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, with capacity utilization showing a "V" shape trajectory [12] Current Capacity Clearance Trajectories - In the current cycle, the lithium battery and solar sectors have reached low capacity utilization levels, with both showing expansion willingness near the 0% percentile over the past decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels [25] - Traditional resource sectors are not facing severe overcapacity issues as seen in previous cycles, with steel and coal industries nearing 2019 low points in capacity utilization, although signs of cash capability improvement are emerging in basic chemicals and steel [25]