以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者范亮 张帆 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 方向正确，但市场不愿"重注赌"。 文 ｜ 范亮 编辑 ｜ 张帆 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 11月11日， 软银集团宣布清仓英伟达，将资金投向OpenAI后，股价在后续三个交易日累计下跌10%。进入11 月后，年内暴涨200%的软银集团股价涨势戛然 而止，开始从高位剧烈回调。至今已经回调近30%。 那么，市场为何对软银态度陡转？ 软银，也是OpenAI影子股 要深入分析软银集团（SoftBank Group）的股价表现，首先必须清晰地理解其复杂的业务构成及核心利润来源。整体来看，软银的业务版图可划分为两大主 要板块： 实体商业运营与金融投资 。 软银的商业板块涵盖了 芯片架构及设计（ARM）、通信及互联网（如雅虎日本） 等核心业务。在2026财年上半年（即2025年第二、三季度），该分部实现 了3.74万亿日元的营业收入和1.96万亿日元的毛利润。相较之下，其 金融投资板块（包括自有资金投资和愿景基金） 同期斩获了高达3.9万亿日元的投资收 益 ...

Market Overview - Major US stock indices hit a one-month low, with the Dow Jones down over 1%, and financial and energy sectors falling nearly 2%, leading the S&P 500 decline [1] - Chip index fell over 1% for three consecutive days, with Nvidia dropping nearly 2% [1] - Chinese concept stocks index dropped over 1% for five consecutive days, with Xiaopeng Motors falling 10% after earnings report [1] - US Treasury prices declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield retreating after two days of increases [1] - The dollar index continued to rise from a four-week low, while the offshore yuan fell over 100 points, breaching 7.11 [1] Oil and Gold Market - Oil prices retreated after a two-day rebound, with gold prices falling for three consecutive days to a one-week low, with spot gold down over 2% [2] Key News - High-level financial dialogue between China and Germany held in Beijing, achieving multiple consensus outcomes to end trade tensions [9] - Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett stated that AI could lead to a "calm period" in the job market, suggesting the Fed should be data-driven [9] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, while Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and gradual approach to policy [10] - Concerns over the labor market and hiring slowdown were highlighted by Waller [10] Company Earnings Reports - Luckin Coffee reported a 50% year-on-year increase in Q3 net revenue, with average monthly transaction customers surpassing 100 million [15] - Xiaopeng Motors reported a significant narrowing of losses in Q3, with revenue expected to increase over 30% year-on-year in Q4 [14] - Geely's Q3 profit surged by 59% to 3.82 billion yuan, driven by strong sales of both fuel and new energy vehicles [20] Investment Trends - Peter Thiel's fund significantly reduced its holdings in Nvidia and increased positions in Microsoft and Apple [11] - High-profile investors are adjusting strategies in anticipation of the 2026 midterm elections, with a focus on potential fiscal stimulus [18] Market Sentiment - Bitcoin's market cap has evaporated by $600 billion over six weeks, with fears of a "halving cycle" leading to a significant price drop [12] - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with funds rotating from tech to defensive sectors amid concerns over economic stability [17] Industry Developments - The Chinese cosmetics industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with a projected market size of 1.0738 trillion yuan by 2024 [27] - The 3D printing industry is entering a phase of large-scale application, with significant growth expected in the coming years [28] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing price increases due to rising demand and supply constraints, benefiting domestic companies [30]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, stating that the AI bull market has not significantly impacted employment, and the cooling effect is only "moderate" [1] - Warren Buffett makes a significant bet on Google after 20 years, with Berkshire Hathaway establishing a new position in Google stock [2] - Elon Musk announces that Tesla will build its own chip factory to accelerate AI chip supply and address current reliance on Samsung and TSMC's production capacity [3] Group 2 - Novo Nordisk lowers the prices of Wegovy and Ozempic to $349, initiating a price war in the weight loss drug market and directly challenging Eli Lilly's market position [4] - Amazon issues $12 billion in bonds, joining the AI financing wave among tech giants, with funds allocated for cloud computing and AI infrastructure expansion, attracting approximately $80 billion in subscription demand [5] Group 3 - Major European stock indices close lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.85%, led by declines in technology and financial stocks amid concerns over global demand slowdown [9] - U.S. Treasury yields show mixed results, with the 30-year Treasury yield down 1.20 basis points; Bitcoin futures drop 2.87%, reaching a six-month low, impacting related cryptocurrency stocks [10] - U.S. stock indices collectively decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.2%, Nasdaq down 1.1%, and S&P 500 down 1.05%, as investors worry about overbuilding in the AI sector, highlighted by Peter Thiel's fund liquidating all Nvidia shares last quarter [11]

隔夜美股市场再遭猛烈抛售，三大指数盘初短暂冲高后，全线跳水，纳指盘中一度大跌近1.5%，恐慌指数VIX日内涨幅达13%。 有分析指出，目前投资者正在更加深入地审视人工智能（AI）热潮的基本面。近几周来，对于科技股估值过高的担忧情绪一直主导着市场。 与此同时，市场对美联储的降息预期正持续降温。据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率降至42.9%，此前降息概率一度超过70%。 号 称"美联储传声筒"的Nick Timiraos最新撰文称，美联储官员正面临一项重大挑战——在缺乏新的经济数据可供参考的情况下，如何弥合内部在利率路径上的分歧， 并做出艰难判断。 美股全线跳水 美东时间11月17日，美股三大指数全线下挫，截至收盘，道指跌1.18%，标普500指数跌0.92%，纳指跌0.84%。 Baird投资策略师Ross Mayfield警告称，如果英伟达对芯片需求给出任何哪怕稍显温和的指引或预测，市场都会作出负面反应。 Aberdeen Investments基金经理Xin-Yao Ng表示，科技股将在一段时间内像过山车一样，在多头和空头之间摇摆。科技股和AI相关股票在前瞻性指引方面可能继 ...

新华财经纽约11月17日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场对英伟达公司三季度业绩担忧刺激多个权重股走低， 纽约股市三大股指17日低开，早盘窄幅盘整，午后显著走低，尾盘跌幅有所收窄，收盘时纽约股市三大 股指均明显下跌，标普和道指均跌至50日均线下方。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌557.24点，收于46590.24点，跌幅为1.18%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌61.70点，收于6672.41点，跌幅为0.92%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌192.514点， 收于22708.075点，跌幅为0.84%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块九跌二涨。金融板块和能源板块分别以1.93%和1.88%跌幅领跌，通 信服务板块和公用事业板块分别上涨1.13%和0.84%。 格雷厄姆说，美国联邦政府结束停摆后经济数据的集中发布可能会增加市场波动性，但强劲盈利可能给 市场带来提振。让人注意的是，市场以往在11和12月份表现强劲，标普500指数目前略低于历史最高水 平，这为季节性因素发挥作用提供了一些空间。 美国商务部当日上午发布的数据显示，美国8月份建筑行业支出金额环比增加0.2%，与前一个月涨幅一 致，好于市场共识 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 事件： 公司发布2025年三季报：公司2025年前三季度实现营收28.80亿元（同比+13.42%），实现归母净利润-3.27亿元 （同比减亏0.85亿元），实现毛利率25.38%（同比+1.92pct）。其中，公司2025Q3实现营收9.82亿元（同比 +11.07%，环比-0.59%），实现归母净利润-0.82亿元（同比减亏0.66亿元，环比减亏0.41亿元），实现毛利率 26.65%（同比+4.71pcts，环比+3.44pcts）。 点评： 发布日期： 2025-11-17 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有 ...

Market Overview - US stock market showed slight fluctuations with major indices remaining mostly flat on November 17 [1] - Traders are cautious ahead of Nvidia's earnings report and a key employment report, which are expected to shape market outlook for the remainder of 2025 [2] Nvidia Insights - Nvidia's stock experienced a slight decline after Peter Thiel's hedge fund liquidated its entire position in the company [3] - Analysts expect Nvidia to report earnings that exceed expectations, but concerns about high AI valuations are growing [2] Employment Report - The September employment report, delayed due to government shutdown, is set to be released soon, with market participants operating in a data-scarce environment [2] Semiconductor Sector Performance - Micron Technology's stock surged over 5%, reaching a new historical high, while SanDisk rose approximately 8% [5] - Other semiconductor stocks, including Google and Tesla, also saw significant gains, with Google’s market cap surpassing $3.5 trillion [8] Berkshire Hathaway's Investment - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a significant investment in Alphabet, holding approximately $4.3 billion worth of shares, making it the company's tenth-largest holding [11] - This investment is seen as a notable shift in Buffett's historically cautious stance towards high-growth tech stocks [11] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson emphasized a cautious approach to further rate cuts to avoid undermining anti-inflation efforts [13] - The Fed is facing challenges in balancing inflation control and unemployment reduction, with recent employment growth slowing down [14][16]

截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.18%，报46,590.24点；标普500指数跌0.92%，报6,672.41点；纳斯达克指数跌0.84%，报22,708.07点。 随着周一的走势，标普500指数11月迄今已下跌逾2%，此前该指数已连续六个月上涨。标普500指数目前较历史高点回落逾3%，而科技权重更高的纳指跌幅 更大，较纪录高点回落逾5%。 华尔街正在更加深入地审视人工智能（AI）热潮的基本面。近几周来，对于科技股估值过高的担忧情绪一直主导着市场。 AI风向标英伟达将于本周三盘后公布财报，英伟达和其他AI概念股近期成为市场压力来源。 Baird投资策略师Ross Mayfield表示："一方面，英伟达需要证实需求仍然强劲，没有出现放缓迹象。但除非他们更进一步说明，否则另一个问题会更悬而未 决，那就是'我们知道计算需求很强，但购买这些芯片的企业，其投资回报率到底如何？'" 11月18日，美东时间周一，随着投资者再度抛售科技股，美股三大指数集体下跌，道指领跌，下跌约1.2%。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.21%，阿里巴巴涨2.54%，京东涨0.72%，拼多多跌1.46%，蔚来汽车跌1.30%，小鹏汽车 ...

Core Insights - Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro fund liquidated all Nvidia holdings, signaling a potential end to the AI hype as Nvidia's market cap surpassed $500 billion and analysts raised target prices to $300 [1][3] - Thiel's actions reflect a broader skepticism among tech leaders, with Jeff Bezos calling the AI trend a "perfect industrial bubble" and predictions of a 10% market correction within 12-24 months [3] - Despite Nvidia's impressive quarterly sales of $46.7 billion and a 56% growth in data center business, Thiel warns of a significant gap between market enthusiasm and real economic value, reminiscent of the 1999 internet bubble [3][4] Investment Strategy - Following the liquidation, Thiel's portfolio shrank from $212 million to $74.4 million, retaining only three stocks: a 76% reduction in Tesla, and new positions in Microsoft and Apple [3][4] - Microsoft and Apple are seen as safer investments due to their diversified revenue streams, unlike pure AI chip companies, allowing them to thrive amid AI transformations [3][4] - Apple's vast ecosystem of 2.3 billion devices positions it as a "safe haven" benefiting from AI trends without the burden of heavy computational infrastructure [4] Market Reflection - The portfolio adjustments indicate a collective reconsideration of the monetization path for AI, as tech giants invest heavily in computational infrastructure [4][6] - Microsoft’s Azure cloud services and Apple's "physical AI" vision exemplify a "slow-burning" transformation, showcasing resilience amid market volatility [6] - The shift in investment strategy suggests that smart capital is now seeking stable havens that can engage with future trends without the pressure of immediate returns [6]

作为资深债券投资者，Gundlach特别担心私人信用基金向散户投资者的扩张，称其创造了流动性承诺与 非流动性资产之间的"完美错配"。他预测："下一次金融市场的重大危机将来自私人信用，它具有与 2006年次贷抵押贷款重新包装相同的特征。" 贝莱德最近决定，其向陷入困境的家装公司Renovo Home Partners提供的贷款价值从一个月前的票面价 值直接减记至零，成为Gundlach新近警告一个例证。 私人信用市场风险堆积 有新"债券之王"之称的DoubleLine Capital创始人Jeffrey Gundlach警告称，美股处于其职业生涯中"最不 健康"状态之一，并将私人信用市场的"垃圾放贷"比作2006年次贷危机前夕的投机行为。他建议投资者 持有20%的现金头寸，对冲即将到来的市场崩盘。 Gundlach在最近的媒体播客中表示，1.7万亿美元的私人信用市场正在进行"垃圾放贷"，可能引发全球市 场下一轮崩盘。他认为当前股市"极其投机"，认为投资者应避免在人工智能（AI）和数据中心领域进 行"极其投机性"的押注。 Gundlach认为，美股当前的状况"是我整个职业生涯中最不健康的（状况）之一"。他看到最明 ...