点击上图▲立即收听 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） " 英伟达早已失去了进入中国市场尤其是中国人工智能领域的最佳时机。这是一次迟到的放行。 " 随着白宫发布《2025美国国家安全战略》，美国改变了全球战略后，第一个"改变"出现了： 美国时间12月8日，特朗普在社交媒体宣布，基于一定的前提，将允许英伟达向中国出售H200人工智能芯片。 所谓的前提，其一是"限定"，仅限获批客户；其二是" 收费"， 销售额的25%将归美国政府 ；其三是"确保美国国家安全得到 持续保障"，这是变 相的"解释权在我方"，表明美国保留随时收回许可的权力。 巧合的是，H200的"放行"，刚好"撞"上了两家国产GPU的上市周期。 12月5日，被称为"国产英伟达"的摩尔线程正式登陆A股。 这家由英伟达前高管张建中创立、曾被美国政府列入"黑名单"的GPU公 司， 首日收盘涨幅425%，市值一度突破3000亿 ，创下2019年以来大型 IPO单日最大涨幅纪录，上一次有这个待遇的还是2020年上市的中芯国 际，首日涨幅202%。 就在同一天，"国产GPU四小龙"之一的沐曦股份开启申购，IPO中签结果仅为0.033%。 在美国最新的《2025 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to "approved customers" in China and other regions, with a condition of a 25% revenue share to the U.S. government [1] - Jensen Huang, NVIDIA's CEO, expressed uncertainty about the future necessity of CPUs in an AI-driven era, suggesting that GPUs may eventually replace CPUs [1] - NVIDIA's revenue from data center GPUs is projected to surge from $15 billion in 2023 to $115.2 billion in the fiscal year 2025 [1] Industry Trends - The GPU market is experiencing a surge in interest, highlighted by the significant stock price increase of Chinese GPU company Moore Threads on its debut [3] - The demand for GPUs is rising due to the explosion of large model training, but the complete replacement of CPUs by GPUs is debated [4][6] - CPUs remain essential for complex task management, while GPUs excel in parallel computing tasks [4][6] Competitive Landscape - Major tech companies are accelerating the deployment of new GPU clusters, with Alibaba Cloud and Baidu developing their own chips to enhance AI capabilities [7][9] - Amazon and Google are also investing in self-developed chips to reduce dependency on NVIDIA, focusing on efficiency and cost control [9][10] - The shift towards GPU dominance in cloud computing is evident, but companies are also developing their own solutions to avoid being solely reliant on NVIDIA [9][10] Future Directions - The transition of AI tasks from cloud to local devices is reshaping the computing architecture, with GPUs becoming increasingly important in smartphones and PCs [10][11] - The rise of AI PCs emphasizes the importance of GPU performance over traditional CPU metrics [11] - The automotive industry is also leveraging GPUs for real-time data processing in autonomous driving applications [11] Ecosystem Development - CPU manufacturers like Intel and AMD are not retreating; they are adapting by enhancing their AI processing capabilities and developing competitive ecosystems [14][15] - NVIDIA's strength lies in its established ecosystem, particularly with CUDA, which poses challenges for competitors [15] - The competition in the computing sector is shifting towards who can build a comprehensive AI ecosystem, with companies like Huawei making significant strides [15][16]

英伟达（NVDA）将于 2025 年 11 月 19 日发布 2025 财年第三季度（FQ3）财报。 回顾上一季度，公司调整后每股收益（EPS）为 1.05 美元，公认会计原则（GAAP）下每股收益 1.08 美元，总营收 467.4 亿美元，均超出市场普遍预期。对于即将到来的季度，调整后每股收益 预计将达 1.25 美元，环比增长 19%；营收预计达 548 亿美元，环比增长 17%。值得注意的是，调整后每股收益增速超过营收增速，这意 味着净利润率有望扩大 —— 预计下一季度调整后净利润率将从之前已十分出色的 55.3% 进一步提升至 56.2%。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 英 伟 达 ： 未 来 利 润 率 将 保 持 稳 健 展望未来，分析师对英伟达未来几年的财务前景极为乐观，不仅预期其将实现大幅增长，还将维持强劲的盈利能力。具体而言，根据当前市场 共识， 公司未来 5 年每股收益复合年增长率（CAGR）预计为 22.0%，营收复合年增长率为 20.2%。 按照这一增速，其每股收益和营收在 这段时间内都将实现翻倍以上增长。再次需要注意的是，每股收益增速高于营收增速，这预示着利润率存在扩张潜力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global competition in artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly focused on the physical foundation of computing power, leading to a silent war over "Compute Sovereignty" [2][3][4]. Group 1: Understanding Compute Sovereignty - Compute sovereignty is a complex issue that must be deconstructed into three levels: the location of AI computing resources, the nationality of the companies owning these data centers, and the origin of the AI accelerators (chips) powering them [2][3]. - A survey of nine leading public cloud service providers reveals a highly uneven global distribution of computing power, with only 33 countries hosting critical AI infrastructure, indicating a significant gap between "compute-rich" and "compute-poor" nations [3][4]. Group 2: Territorial Illusions and Economic Considerations - The concept of territorial sovereignty in computing power is primarily about having physical AI data centers within a country's borders, which is seen as essential for ensuring supply security and regulatory oversight [4][5]. - The report highlights that while attracting foreign tech giants to build data centers can bring economic benefits, the environmental and resource costs may outweigh these advantages, especially for countries lacking competitive energy and climate conditions [5]. Group 3: Supplier Loyalty and Geopolitical Strategies - Merely having data centers does not equate to true sovereignty; the nationality of AI cloud service providers introduces a layer of complexity due to overlapping legal jurisdictions [6][7]. - Countries face strategic choices between two approaches: "Aligning" with a single foreign superpower's digital infrastructure or "Hedging" by diversifying suppliers to mitigate risks [8][9]. Group 4: The Chip Dependency - The report identifies a critical dependency on AI accelerators, with U.S. companies like NVIDIA dominating 80% to 95% of the global market, leading to a situation where most countries rely on U.S. technology for their AI capabilities [10][11]. - Countries like the EU and China are striving for "strategic autonomy" in chip production, but achieving this is a long-term and costly endeavor [12][13]. Group 5: Conclusion on Sovereignty - The report concludes that compute sovereignty is not a straightforward goal but a complex framework filled with trade-offs, where a nation may achieve sovereignty in one area while remaining dependent in another [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the computer industry [2] Core Views - The domestic software industry showed a revenue growth of 12.6% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025, with a total revenue of 9.64 trillion yuan, indicating a continuous recovery trend [10][11] - The AI server market demand in China is increasingly concentrated in the internet sector, reflecting the impact of domestic chip localization trends on market competition [3] - The HarmonyOS 5 has surpassed 20 million terminal devices, with an upcoming significant upgrade to HarmonyOS 6 expected to enhance system capabilities [2][32] Summary by Sections Industry Data - The software industry experienced a profit growth of 13.0% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025, with total profits reaching 13,186 billion yuan, outpacing revenue growth by 0.4 percentage points [11] - The IC design sector was the highest-performing sub-industry, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% for the same period [15] - The domestic AI chip market is projected to grow from 21 billion USD to 38 billion USD by 2025, with a notable increase in the market share of domestic chip manufacturers [34] Localization - The localization of domestic chips is accelerating, with the AI chip localization rate increasing from 34% in the second half of 2024 to 35% in the first half of 2025 [33] - Huawei's HarmonyOS has become the second-largest mobile operating system in China and the third globally, with a market share of 17% in Q2 2025 [45][46] - The EDA sector is experiencing increased activity, with domestic companies like Huada Empyrean enhancing their product offerings to meet local demand [59][68] Computing Power - The demand for AI servers is expected to concentrate among internet companies, leading to a decrease in supply concentration [3] - OpenAI has signed significant supply agreements with major chip manufacturers, indicating a diversification in chip demand [3] - The report highlights the rapid growth of domestic AI chip companies, with notable revenue increases for companies like Cambricon and Haiguang [39][41] AI - DeepSeek has made significant advancements in optimizing AI models for domestic chips, addressing ecological barriers posed by CUDA [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration between software and hardware in the AI industry, particularly in the context of domestic chip development [3][5]

Core Insights - Nvidia, the dominant player in the global AI chip market, has seen its market share in China plummet from 95% to 0% due to tightening U.S. export controls [1] - The exit of Nvidia from the Chinese AI chip market has created significant opportunities for local companies, with Cambricon reporting a staggering 1332.52% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [1] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Huawei's Ascend series chips and AMD's MI300 series actively seeking to fill the void left by Nvidia's absence in the Chinese market [1] Market Dynamics - Nvidia's market share in China has effectively "returned to zero," highlighting the impact of U.S. export restrictions on its operations [1] - Cambricon's Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, a dramatic increase compared to a loss of 194 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The exit of Nvidia has transitioned the market from a single-player dominance to a more competitive environment with multiple players vying for market share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia, the dominant player in the global AI chip market, has seen its market share in China drop from 95% to 0% due to tightening U.S. export controls, prompting the company to make various adjustments to its product offerings and strategies [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia's market share in China's AI chip market was approximately 85% in 2022, with over 90% in the core area of large model training [5][6]. - The introduction of U.S. export controls in October 2022 marked a turning point, leading Nvidia to release adjusted versions of its chips, such as the A800 and H800, to maintain market presence [6][8]. - By 2023, further restrictions included the A800 and H800, forcing Nvidia to launch even lower-performance chips like the H20, which were referred to as "the most stripped-down version" [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cambrian (寒武纪) reported a staggering 1332.52% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, and a net profit of 567 million yuan, compared to a loss of 194 million yuan in the same period last year [3][17]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Cambrian achieved a total revenue of 4.607 billion yuan, a 2386.38% increase from 185 million yuan in the same period last year [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The absence of Nvidia's high-end products has created a significant market vacuum, allowing domestic companies like Cambrian and Huawei's Ascend series chips to emerge as strong alternatives [17][20]. - AMD is also actively seeking opportunities in the Chinese market with its MI300 series AI chips, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape with multiple players [20]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Nvidia's global strategy is shifting, with a focus on domestic manufacturing in the U.S. and rapid iteration of its AI chip products, such as the new Blackwell platform, which boasts 208 billion transistors [14][12]. - Despite the advancements in product development, Nvidia's latest offerings appear to be increasingly isolated from the Chinese market due to ongoing export restrictions [14][15].

Core Insights - Nvidia's market share in China's AI chip sector has plummeted from 95% to 0% due to U.S. export controls [2][3] - The emergence of domestic competitors like Cambricon, which reported a staggering 1332.52% revenue increase in Q3 2025, highlights the significant market opportunity left by Nvidia's exit [3][20] - The shift in market dynamics indicates a transition from Nvidia's dominance to a more competitive landscape with multiple players [25] Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia previously held approximately 85% of the AI accelerator card market in China, with over 90% in the large model training segment [6] - The introduction of adjusted performance chips like A800 and H800 initially helped Nvidia maintain some market presence, but these too were later restricted [9][10] - The company's latest chip, Blackwell, represents a shift towards U.S. domestic manufacturing, distancing itself from the Chinese market [18][19] Financial Performance of Competitors - Cambricon's Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, a 1332.52% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 567 million yuan compared to a loss of 194 million yuan in the previous year [20][21] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Cambricon's total revenue was 4.607 billion yuan, a 2386.38% increase from 1.85 billion yuan in the same period last year [20] - Despite significant revenue growth, Cambricon reported a negative cash flow from operating activities of -29 million yuan [23] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The absence of Nvidia's high-end products has created a substantial market vacuum, allowing domestic companies to fill the gap [22][24] - The AI chip market is evolving, with a shift from training to inference, where domestic chips are gaining a competitive edge [23] - The competitive landscape is diversifying, with companies like Huawei and AMD also positioning themselves as viable alternatives in the market [24][25]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that "Made in China 2025" has largely achieved its goals, particularly in key sectors like new energy vehicles and information technology, with over 86% of targets met in the past decade [2][29] - The manufacturing sector in China has maintained its position as the world's largest for 15 consecutive years, with a manufacturing value added exceeding 40 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The focus is shifting towards full-chain intelligence, with companies recognizing that the next round of competition will be defined by the level of intelligence [5][9] Summary by Sections Achievements and Current Status - Over the past ten years, significant advancements have been made in ten key areas, including new energy vehicles and information technology, confirming the success of the "Made in China 2025" initiative [2] - The 14th Five-Year Plan's achievements show that over 500 companies have entered the world's top 2500 in R&D investment, with an 8.4 percentage point increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] Transition to Intelligent Manufacturing - The manufacturing industry is increasingly aware that the next competitive edge will come from the level of intelligence, with AI being a crucial factor for business growth [5][9] - The transition to intelligent manufacturing is not merely a technical issue but also involves organizational change and governance [9] Role of Huawei - Huawei's unique position in the industry allows it to bridge the gap between high-tech and manufacturing, providing a comprehensive "smart toolbox" for intelligent transformation [14] - Huawei has experienced multiple organizational transformations due to technological trends, making it a valuable reference for other companies undergoing similar changes [14] Case Studies and Collaborations - Midea's new AIGC strategy aims to achieve product service intelligence, reporting efficiency gains of 280 million RMB and 490,400 hours by mid-2025 [15] - Collaborations between Huawei and companies like Jianghuai have led to the establishment of smart factories, achieving high levels of connectivity and customization in production [17] Methodologies for AI Integration - The "Industrial and AI Integration Application Guide" outlines a structured approach for companies to implement AI, emphasizing the importance of identifying high-value scenarios and establishing a supportive organizational culture [23][27] - The guide proposes a three-layer methodology for AI application, focusing on goal setting, data management, and continuous evaluation [27] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the real differentiator for companies in the next decade will be their ability to find and iterate on their unique AI paths, rather than merely having access to hardware [28] - Companies are encouraged to accumulate experience through practical applications of AI, transforming it into a core driver of business growth [28]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that China is only "a few nanoseconds" behind the US in the chip sector and urged the US to allow tech companies to compete in the Chinese market [2][9]. Group 1: Nvidia's Challenges in China - Nvidia is facing a dilemma in the US-China tech rivalry, particularly after China's market regulator announced an antitrust investigation against the company for not fulfilling commitments made during its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli chipmaker Mellanox in 2020 [3][4]. - The investigation marks the second time China has scrutinized Nvidia, with similar issues leading to a case in late 2024 [5]. - Following the announcement, Nvidia's stock price dropped over 2% in pre-market trading [7]. Group 2: Impact of US Export Controls - US export restrictions have severely impacted Nvidia's ability to supply high-end GPUs to the Chinese market, with the company ceasing sales of several models citing these controls [4][11]. - Nvidia's introduction of a "downgraded" H20 chip did not perform well in the market after the bans on the H100 and A100 chips [11]. - In Q1 2025, Nvidia lost an additional $2.5 billion in revenue due to these export limitations [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape in China - Chinese chip companies, particularly Huawei with its Ascend series, are rapidly advancing, capturing 79% of the domestic intelligent computing center market in 2022 [11]. - Huawei has announced a roadmap for the next three years to release higher-performance chips, increasing competitive pressure on Nvidia [11]. Group 4: Future of US-China Tech Relations - The Chinese government has expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue and cooperation to stabilize global supply chains, opposing discriminatory measures in trade and technology [12]. - The current situation reflects the complexity of the global tech supply chain, with the effectiveness of US restrictions still uncertain and Chinese companies accelerating their technological advancements [12][14]. - Huang's call for global cooperation in AI chip distribution highlights the need for balance between competition and collaboration in the tech industry [8][14].