" 欧米伽未来研究所 " 关注科技未来发展趋势，研究人类向欧米伽点演化过程中面临的重大机遇与挑战。将不定期推荐和发布世界范围重要科技研究进展和未 来趋势研究。 （ 点击这里查看广义智能体理论 ） 人工智能的全球竞赛不仅关乎算法和数据，更日益聚焦于其物理基础：算力。随着前沿AI模型所需计算资源大约每六个月翻一番，对专业计算基础设施 的控制权已成为政府和行业讨论的核心。一场围绕"算力主权"（Compute Sovereignty）的无声战争已经打响。 牛津大学2025年发布的一份题为《AI算力主权：跨越领土、云服务商和加速器的基础设施控制权》的深度研究报告，为这场复杂的全球博弈提供了一个 亟需的分析框架。该报告由佐伊·杰伊·霍金斯（Zoe Jay Hawkins）、维利·莱东维尔塔（Vili Lehdonvirta）和吴博西（Boxi Wu）共同撰写，他们指出，"算 力主权"并非一个非黑即白的单一概念，而是必须在三个不同层面进行解构的复杂议题： （1）AI计算资源是否位于本国领土内； （2）拥有这些AI数据中心的公司归属哪国国籍； （3）为这些数据中心提供动力的AI加速器（芯片）来自哪个国家供应商。 作为替代方案 ...

计算机 分析师：唐月 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 鸿蒙迎来重要升级，AI 算力需求多元化趋 势明显 ——计算机行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 23 日 登记编码：S0730512030001 投资要点： （1）国产化：2025 年 1-8 月基础软件同比增长 13.6%，较 2024 年提升了 6.7 PCT，高于软件行业整体增速 1.0 PCT，或将继续受 益于"十四五"收关之年的需求释放。9 月，华为和阿里都在硬件 端进行了较多的利好因素释放，寒武纪、海光也实现了 Q3 较好的 业绩表现，沐曦、摩尔线程的 IPO 进程也在加快推进，国产芯片 有望较好承接英伟达空出的市场空间。EDA 领域，华大九天在数 字电路设计主要工具的覆盖率达到近 80%，芯原股份 Q3 实现了 较强的业绩释放，新凯来强势入局国产 EDA 队列。华为鸿蒙操作 系统 5 的终端数量突破 2000 万，近期鸿蒙 6 升级即将带来系统能 力的较大提升。 （2）算力：2025 年国内 AI 服务器市场需求更加集中在互联网领 域，供给进一步分化，我们认为这背 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia, the dominant player in the global AI chip market, has seen its market share in China plummet from 95% to 0% due to tightening U.S. export controls [1] - The exit of Nvidia from the Chinese AI chip market has created significant opportunities for local companies, with Cambricon reporting a staggering 1332.52% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [1] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Huawei's Ascend series chips and AMD's MI300 series actively seeking to fill the void left by Nvidia's absence in the Chinese market [1] Market Dynamics - Nvidia's market share in China has effectively "returned to zero," highlighting the impact of U.S. export restrictions on its operations [1] - Cambricon's Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, a dramatic increase compared to a loss of 194 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The exit of Nvidia has transitioned the market from a single-player dominance to a more competitive environment with multiple players vying for market share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia, the dominant player in the global AI chip market, has seen its market share in China drop from 95% to 0% due to tightening U.S. export controls, prompting the company to make various adjustments to its product offerings and strategies [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia's market share in China's AI chip market was approximately 85% in 2022, with over 90% in the core area of large model training [5][6]. - The introduction of U.S. export controls in October 2022 marked a turning point, leading Nvidia to release adjusted versions of its chips, such as the A800 and H800, to maintain market presence [6][8]. - By 2023, further restrictions included the A800 and H800, forcing Nvidia to launch even lower-performance chips like the H20, which were referred to as "the most stripped-down version" [8][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cambrian (寒武纪) reported a staggering 1332.52% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, and a net profit of 567 million yuan, compared to a loss of 194 million yuan in the same period last year [3][17]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Cambrian achieved a total revenue of 4.607 billion yuan, a 2386.38% increase from 185 million yuan in the same period last year [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The absence of Nvidia's high-end products has created a significant market vacuum, allowing domestic companies like Cambrian and Huawei's Ascend series chips to emerge as strong alternatives [17][20]. - AMD is also actively seeking opportunities in the Chinese market with its MI300 series AI chips, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape with multiple players [20]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Nvidia's global strategy is shifting, with a focus on domestic manufacturing in the U.S. and rapid iteration of its AI chip products, such as the new Blackwell platform, which boasts 208 billion transistors [14][12]. - Despite the advancements in product development, Nvidia's latest offerings appear to be increasingly isolated from the Chinese market due to ongoing export restrictions [14][15].

经济观察报记者 郑晨烨 2025年10月6日，在纽约Casa Cipriani酒店举行的Citadel Securities全球市场未来会议上，英伟达创始人黄仁勋在聊到中国市场的时候，丢出了一个数字。 黄仁勋说，受美国出口管制影响，英伟达在中国人工智能（AI）芯片，即用于驱动大模型进行思考和计算的核心硬件的市场份额，已经从95%降到了0%。 这句话，很快就从会场传了出去。过去两年多来，英伟达这家全球AI芯片领域的绝对主导者，在美国不断收紧的出口管制红线下疲于奔命，为了在规则内 寻找到哪怕一点空间，黄仁勋做了很多努力。 当A100、H100芯片被限制，英伟达马上推出了性能经过调整的A800和H800，作为面向中国市场的"特供版"。几个月后，A800和H800也被列入限制清单， 英伟达又接着推出了阉割版中的阉割版——H20。 与此同时，黄仁勋本人也在不同场合发声，提醒美国决策者，"伤害中国的事情，往往也可能伤害美国"。他亦反复强调，失去中国这个"独一无二"的市场， 对任何美国公司都是巨大损失。 市场一直在观察这些应对措施的效果，但这一次，从黄仁勋口中说出的"归零"，相当于为英伟达在过去两年来的种种努力，画上了一个 ...

中国制造2025进入收官之年，从海外到国内一个普遍共识是，目标已经基本达成。 《南华早报》就梳理过资料[1]，过去十年中国社会发生了深刻变化， 已实现了新能源汽车、信息技术 等10个关键领域超86%的目标。 这个结论和国务院公布的十四五时期工业"成绩单"互相印证： 十四五时期，制造业增加值超过 40 万亿元人民币，连续 15 年稳居全球第一。在研发投入与创新上，超 过五百家企业进入世界 R&D 投资前2500强，企业发明专利产业化率较"十三五"末提高8.4个百分点...... 已经走在世界前面的中国制造企业们并不打算停下来，他们正轰轰烈烈投入一个更加前沿的命题： 全链 智能化。 来源：华为联合中国信通院、清华大学人工智能研究院和罗兰贝格咨询公司发布的《工业和 AI 融合应用指南》 从动力电池、机械电子到汽车工业，制造规模和供应链协作逐渐推向极致，产业界整齐划一的意识到， 下一轮竞争将由智能化水平定义。 向AI要效益，是"业务增长"考卷的最后一道大题。 每一次技术范式的迁移，都会伴随组织方式重构，带来一个看似混沌的未来。在排山倒海的技术声浪 中，一大批制造企业都迈出了走向人工智能时代的第一步，但疑问接踵而至。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that China is only "a few nanoseconds" behind the US in the chip sector and urged the US to allow tech companies to compete in the Chinese market [2][9]. Group 1: Nvidia's Challenges in China - Nvidia is facing a dilemma in the US-China tech rivalry, particularly after China's market regulator announced an antitrust investigation against the company for not fulfilling commitments made during its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli chipmaker Mellanox in 2020 [3][4]. - The investigation marks the second time China has scrutinized Nvidia, with similar issues leading to a case in late 2024 [5]. - Following the announcement, Nvidia's stock price dropped over 2% in pre-market trading [7]. Group 2: Impact of US Export Controls - US export restrictions have severely impacted Nvidia's ability to supply high-end GPUs to the Chinese market, with the company ceasing sales of several models citing these controls [4][11]. - Nvidia's introduction of a "downgraded" H20 chip did not perform well in the market after the bans on the H100 and A100 chips [11]. - In Q1 2025, Nvidia lost an additional $2.5 billion in revenue due to these export limitations [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape in China - Chinese chip companies, particularly Huawei with its Ascend series, are rapidly advancing, capturing 79% of the domestic intelligent computing center market in 2022 [11]. - Huawei has announced a roadmap for the next three years to release higher-performance chips, increasing competitive pressure on Nvidia [11]. Group 4: Future of US-China Tech Relations - The Chinese government has expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue and cooperation to stabilize global supply chains, opposing discriminatory measures in trade and technology [12]. - The current situation reflects the complexity of the global tech supply chain, with the effectiveness of US restrictions still uncertain and Chinese companies accelerating their technological advancements [12][14]. - Huang's call for global cooperation in AI chip distribution highlights the need for balance between competition and collaboration in the tech industry [8][14].

Market Overview - During the past week (September 15-19), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.34%. The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.44%, and the computer (Shenwan) index dropped by 0.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.15 percentage points, underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.49 percentage points, and outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.29 percentage points, ranking 14th among all industries [1][2]. Industry Insights - The rise of domestic AI chips is accelerating technological self-reliance. Alibaba's latest PPU chip, developed by its subsidiary Pingtouge, has surpassed NVIDIA's A800 in key performance metrics and is comparable to the H20. The PPU features 96GB of HBM2e memory, exceeding the A800's 80GB and matching the H20's capacity. It also boasts a bandwidth of 700GB/s, higher than the A800's 400GB/s, and supports PCIe5.0×15, outperforming the A800's PCIe4.0×16 [3][4]. - Baidu is testing its self-developed Kunlun chip P800 for training its new Wenxin large model. The Kunlun chip has shown strong performance in a centralized procurement project for AI computing devices, winning significant market shares in multiple categories, with a total contract value reaching the billion level [3][4]. - Huawei announced a three-year product iteration roadmap for its Ascend AI chips, planning to release four new models from 2026 to 2028. The first model, Ascend 950PR, will be launched in Q1 2026, featuring Huawei's self-developed HBM [3][4]. - Haiguang Information announced the opening of its CPU interconnect bus protocol to build a more efficient computing ecosystem, aiming to unleash the potential of domestic computing power [4]. Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include: - Computing Power: Huafeng Technology, Shenling Environment, Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Anbotong [6]. - AIDC: Kehua Data, Yunsai Zhili, Hongxin Electronics, Runjian Shares, Runze Technology, and Dataport [6]. - AI Applications: Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, Dingjie Zhizhi, Hand Information, Zhuoyi Information, and Puyuan Information [6]. Corporate Developments - Cambricon received approval for a private placement to raise up to 3.985 billion yuan, with net proceeds intended for AI chip and software platform projects [5]. - Moer Thread is set to have its IPO reviewed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on September 26, 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The rise of domestic AI chips accelerates technological self-reliance in China, with significant advancements from companies like Alibaba, Baidu, Huawei, and Haiguang Information [3][4] - The report highlights the competitive edge of domestic chips in the AI sector, showcasing their performance against international counterparts [3] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies involved in computing power, AI data centers, and AI applications [6] Market Review - In the past week (September 15-19), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.34%. The computer (Shenwan) index decreased by 0.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.15 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext by 2.49 percentage points [2] Weekly Insights - Alibaba's PPU chip surpasses Nvidia's A800 in key specifications, indicating strong domestic competition in AI chip development [3] - Baidu's Kunlun chip shows promising results in AI model training, winning significant market shares in a recent procurement project [3] - Huawei plans to release multiple iterations of its Ascend AI chips over the next three years, indicating a robust product roadmap [3] - Haiguang Information is fostering collaboration across the industry by opening its CPU interconnect bus protocol [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include: - Computing Power: Huafeng Technology, Shenling Environment, Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Ambow Technology - AI Data Centers: Kehua Data, Yunsai Zhili, Hongxin Electronics, Runjian Shares, Runze Technology, and Dataport - AI Applications: Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, Dingjie Shuzhi, Hand Information, Zhuoyi Information, and Puyuan Information [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [9]. Core Insights - The communication sector has seen a 0.36% increase in the 38th week of 2025, ranking 13th among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Since the beginning of 2025, the sector has surged by 63.61%, leading all industries in the same region [2][4]. - Huawei has announced the Ascend series chip roadmap, introducing the Atlas 950 super node and the Lingqu 2.0 interconnection protocol, aiming to build a cluster of over 520,000 cards, with the Atlas 960 targeting a million-card scale [5][7]. - Microsoft is accelerating the expansion of the Fairwater cluster, investing an additional $4 billion in Wisconsin, bringing the total investment to $7.3 billion, to support AI model training [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 38th week of 2025, the communication sector rose by 0.36%, ranking 13th among major industries. Year-to-date, the sector has increased by 63.61%, ranking first [2][4]. - Notable stock performances include Dekeli (+59.1%), Changfei Fiber (+35.1%), and Guangku Technology (+27.6%) for gains, while Sanwei Communication (-14.0%), Yongding Co. (-10.8%), and Dongxin Peace (-10.2%) faced declines [4]. Technological Developments - Huawei's Atlas 950 super node, set to launch in Q4 2026, will utilize 8192 Ascend 950 DT chips, achieving a bandwidth of 16.3PB/s, significantly outperforming previous models [5]. - The Atlas 960 super node, expected in Q4 2027, will support up to 15,488 Ascend 960 chips, targeting high-density scenarios with a total computing power of 2 ZFLOPS [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across various segments: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Liquid Cooling: Yingweike - Hollow Core Fiber: Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric - Domestic Computing: Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network - AI Applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai - Satellite Applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication [7].