Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.10.20 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Report Source: Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views 2.1 Soda Ash - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable. Supply decreased due to maintenance, but is expected to increase as previously maintained units resume production. Demand is weak, with some enterprises having poor shipping and a slight accumulation of alkali plant inventory. High supply and inventory strongly suppress soda ash prices, and the futures price continues to fluctuate weakly. In the medium to long term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand under the pattern of new capacity release. Opportunities for shorting on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass fluctuated. The overall supply was stable, while demand was weak, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. The futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair dynamics of production lines under the condition of profit losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%. The weekly output was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.03 tons. Light soda ash output was 32.50 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons, and heavy soda ash output was 41.55 tons, a decrease of 1.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 69.98 tons, a decrease of 1.11 tons. Light soda ash demand was 30.43 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons, and heavy soda ash demand was 39.55 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the 9th. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [6]. - Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2% [6]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of October 16, 2025, in the central China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price was weak, and the glass futures price dropped significantly [11][14]. 3.2.2 Price Difference - As of October 16, 2025, the 1 - 5 price difference of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price difference of glass was - 137 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the glass - soda ash arbitrage price difference was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Fundamentals 3.3.1 Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output decreased, but is expected to increase as maintenance units resume production. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate decreased, with the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate at 89.42% (a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%) and the joint - production capacity utilization rate at 75.74% (a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%) [26][35]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired [6]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [51]. 3.3.3 Profitability - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of joint - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton [54]. - Glass: The report provides cost and profit data for float glass production using coal and natural gas as fuels, but specific analysis is not given [55][56][57][58].

Core Insights - Four companies are set to present their IPO applications, with a focus on various sectors including environmental protection, medical imaging, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Upcoming IPOs - Double Xin Environmental Protection plans to list on the Shenzhen Main Board, aiming to raise 1.865 billion yuan for projects related to PVB resin and functional films, among others [1][2] - Two companies, Jianxin Superconductor and Muxi Co., are targeting the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) with proposed fundraising amounts of 775 million yuan each [1][3] - Aishalen is preparing for an IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a target of raising 300 million yuan [1][4] Group 2: Company Profiles - Double Xin Environmental Protection specializes in the research, production, and sales of PVA and related products, boasting a full industry chain layout [2] - Jianxin Superconductor focuses on the development and production of core components for medical MRI equipment [3] - Muxi Co. is engaged in the research, design, and sales of full-stack GPU products for AI training and general computing [3] - Aishalen is dedicated to the medical health sector, producing disposable medical supplies for rehabilitation and protection [4]

Market Strategy - The market is likely still in a bull phase, but may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term. The current market correction aligns with historical patterns, with a maximum drawdown of 4.01%, which is within historical levels. Short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should be on TMT and advanced manufacturing [4] Quantitative Analysis - The market is exhibiting a small-cap style, with momentum factors yielding a positive return of 0.43%. Conversely, Beta, market capitalization, and non-linear market capitalization factors recorded negative returns of -1.50%, -0.91%, and -0.54% respectively. The large transaction portfolio achieved an excess return of 1.56% relative to the CSI All Share Index [5] Fixed Income - The convertible bond market and equity market both experienced significant adjustments, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index declining by 2.3% and the CSI All Share Index by 3.5%. Year-to-date, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has increased by 14.4%, while the CSI All Share Index has risen by 19.0%. Despite the convertible bond market underperforming relative to the equity market, it remains a relatively high-quality asset in the long term, although current valuation levels are generally high [5] Commodity Analysis - Global inventories of electrolytic copper at the three major exchanges reached a near five-year high for the same period. Short-term fluctuations in copper prices may arise from changes in US-China trade relations. Freeport's reduction of copper production for 2025-2026 will keep supply tight, while improved production of air conditioning units in Q4 is expected to boost demand [8] Oil and Gas Sector - The outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies remains positive, with oil price resilience expected despite recent declines driven by geopolitical easing and supply-demand concerns. The IEA has lowered global oil demand forecasts, indicating potential oversupply risks. However, the "Big Three" demonstrate strong performance during price downturns, showcasing their ability to navigate through cycles. Anticipated cold weather this winter may enhance natural gas consumption, further supporting the sector [9] Chemical Industry - The supply-demand dynamics for hexafluorophosphate lithium are showing marginal improvement, with prices expected to continue rising. The primary drivers for this price increase are robust demand recovery and tight supply conditions. Downstream demand from electrolyte and battery manufacturers has significantly rebounded, while upstream producers have not expanded capacity significantly during the industry's downturn, leading to most manufacturers operating at full capacity [9]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the dynamics and investment opportunities in the xylene industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Import Data Summary - In April 2025, China's xylene imports amounted to 720,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1] - The import value for the same period was $58.2 million, showing a significant year-on-year decline of 23.3% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, focusing on delivering tailored solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the China - US trade war has led to a volatile downward trend in crude oil prices. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately low. The supply side of styrene faces significant pressure, while the demand side enters a seasonal peak season. After the large - scale downstream production of styrene is launched in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap may increase, and the futures price may reach the bottom [11][13]. - This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference volatility range is (5800 - 6100); for styrene (EB2511), the reference volatility range is (6800 - 7100). The recommended strategy is to wait and see [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Conditions**: The China - US trade war has escalated again, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate downward. The weekly decline of styrene shows (futures > cost > spot), the basis strengthens, the BZN spread rises, and the profit of non - integrated EB plants decreases [11]. - **Cost**: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China fell by - 3.12%, and the pure benzene operating rate remained high and volatile [11]. - **Supply**: The utilization rate of EB production capacity is 73.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 8.73%, but a decrease of - 7.99% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter, and the supply side may face pressure under the background of high operating rates [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 4.412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 13.13% and a year - on - year increase of 8.38%, mainly from the Middle East. The import volume of EB in August was 269,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.77% and a year - on - year increase of 29.29%. The port inventory of pure benzene and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports have been reduced from high levels [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 38.81%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The operating rate of PS is 55.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 2.36%. The operating rate of EPS is 41.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of - 31.28%. The operating rate of ABS is 73.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year increase of 19.09%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, downstream demand has slightly improved [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of EB is 186,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 6.48%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports is 196,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.67% and a year - on - year increase of 372.36%. The port inventory has been reduced from high levels [12]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with a forecast range of 5800 - 6100 for pure benzene (BZ2603) and 6800 - 7100 for styrene (EB2511) [13]. 02. Futures and Spot Markets - The styrene price has been continuously declining, and multiple charts show the historical trends of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and spreads [16][20][22]. 03. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the historical trends of styrene port inventory, factory inventory, and pure benzene port inventory [37][39]. - **Profit**: The profit of styrene is fluctuating at a low level compared to the same period in history. Charts show the profit trends of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM processes, as well as the production capacity share of the top ten styrene producers [43][48]. 04. Cost Side - **Pure Benzene Industry Chain**: The profit of naphtha has rebounded significantly. Pure benzene has maintained inventory reduction in 2025, and the supply - demand gap will increase quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter. The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is fluctuating upward, and the inventory of caprolactam plants is oscillating at a high level [55][59][66]. - **Production and Demand**: A table shows the production and demand situation of pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025, including production capacity, production time, and supply - demand gaps [60]. 05. Supply Side - **Production Capacity and Supply - Demand Gap**: The supply - demand gap of styrene will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025. Tables show the production and demand situation of styrene and its downstream products, including production capacity, production time, and supply - demand gaps [106][108]. - **Production and Import - Export**: The styrene production volume is oscillating at a high level compared to the same period. Charts show the historical trends of styrene production, import volume, export volume, and operating rate [114][116][118]. 06. Demand Side - **Downstream 3S Production Capacity**: Charts show the production capacity, output, and growth rate trends of ABS, PS, and EPS [126]. - **Operating Rate and Profit**: The operating rates of EPS and PS are oscillating at a low level compared to the same period, while the operating rate of ABS has rebounded from a low level. Charts show the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, as well as the inventory situations of downstream products [129][133][135]. - **End - User Demand**: The production volume of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate, and charts show the sales volume, production volume, and inventory trends of household refrigerators and washing machines [157][158][150].

Core Points - The article highlights the benefits of the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) for Erdos City Zhongxuan Biochemical Co., Ltd, particularly in reducing import tariffs for xanthan gum exports to countries like Australia and Japan [1][2] - The Erdos Customs has implemented various supportive measures to help local businesses take advantage of RCEP policies, including personalized consultations and a "cloud signing" service for origin certificates [2] Group 1 - The production of xanthan gum at Erdos City Zhongxuan Biochemical Co., Ltd has increased, with the company benefiting from a 2% reduction in import tariffs in Australia due to the RCEP origin certificate [1] - The company reported a tax savings of over 360,000 yuan from exports to Japan and Australia in the first three quarters of the year, thanks to the RCEP origin certificate [1] - From January to September, Erdos City’s foreign trade enterprises have enjoyed a total of approximately 31.234 million yuan in tariff reductions through the RCEP origin certificate [1] Group 2 - Erdos Customs has launched the "Intelligent Customs Strong Nation" initiative and implemented the "cloud signing" model for RCEP origin certificates, allowing businesses to apply for certificates without leaving their premises [2] - A total of 122 RCEP origin certificates have been issued by Erdos Customs from January to September, with a total value of 539 million yuan [2]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index experienced a decline of nearly 4% on October 17, closing at 1363.17 points, with a drop of 3.77% and a fluctuation of 3.90% [1] - The total trading volume reached approximately 72.84 billion yuan, with 588 stocks on the Sci-Tech board averaging a decline of 3.49% and an average turnover rate of 2.78% [1] Stock Performance - Among individual stocks, Shenlian Bio led the gainers with an increase of 10.65%, while Shijia Photon recorded the largest drop at 18.58% [2] - In terms of trading volume, Cambrian Technology topped the list with a transaction volume of 10.61 billion yuan, while ST Guandian had the lowest at 863.2 thousand yuan [3] Turnover Rate - Saifen Technology achieved the highest turnover rate at 24.67%, whereas Longteng Optoelectronics had the lowest turnover rate at 0.25% [4]

Core Viewpoint - LianKe Technology reported revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, alongside a cash dividend plan to reward shareholders [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, LianKe Technology achieved revenue of 1.788 billion yuan, an increase of 8.66% compared to 1.645 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit for the same period was 230 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.26%, which is higher than the revenue growth rate [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities significantly improved to 320 million yuan, a 208.98% increase from 104 million yuan in the previous year [1] Group 2: Industry Context - LianKe Technology operates in the silica and carbon black sectors, with performance exceeding the industry average [2] - The carbon black industry is facing supply-demand challenges, while the silica industry benefits from structural growth driven by emerging sector demands [2] - LianKe Technology is the second-largest producer of silica in China, with increasing market demand due to the rapid development of industries like new energy vehicles and green tires [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a circular economy strategy, implementing waste heat and photovoltaic power generation to reduce production costs and enhance profitability [2] - LianKe Technology is advancing production line upgrades to strengthen its scale advantages and sustainable development capabilities [2] - In August, the company received approval for a refinancing application to fund a project aimed at producing 100,000 tons of nano-carbon materials for high-voltage cable shielding, which is part of its strategic development plan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant activity with 34 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and momentum in certain sectors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - A total of 34 stocks reached the daily limit up, with 11 stocks achieving consecutive limit ups [1] - 16 stocks attempted to hit the limit but failed, resulting in a limit-up rate of 68% (excluding ST and delisted stocks) [1] Group 2: Focus Stocks - Shanghai Microelectronics concept stock Huajian Group achieved 10 consecutive limit ups over 20 days [1] - Storage chip sector stocks such as Hefei Urban Construction recorded 5 limit ups in 9 days, while Sanfu Co. had 2 consecutive limit ups [1] - Palm oil price increase concept stock Yuanda Holdings achieved 3 consecutive limit ups [1] - Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical, which underwent a change in actual controller, also saw 3 consecutive limit ups [1] - Agricultural chemical stock Xinong Co. recorded 3 consecutive limit ups [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the telecommunications industry, driven by the approval of eSIM mobile phone commercial trials and a recovery in global telecom equipment revenue [18][21] - The report indicates a strong performance in the lithium battery sector, with a significant increase in electric vehicle sales and battery installations [23] - The petrochemical industry is expected to benefit from new growth stabilization plans, enhancing quality and efficiency [24][34] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,912.21, with a daily increase of 1.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.73% to 13,118.75 [4] - The A-share market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext at 15.82 and 47.50, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [9][10] International Market Performance - Major international indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 0.67% and the S&P 500 down by 0.45%, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.62% [5] Economic Indicators - China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while the PPI fell by 2.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of expectation management in macroeconomic governance to support economic recovery [9] Industry Analysis - The telecommunications sector saw a 0.96% increase in the industry index in September, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [18] - The lithium battery sector experienced a 24.63% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle sales, with a notable rise in battery installations [23] - The petrochemical industry index rose by 5.02% in September, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [24][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as telecommunications, AI-enabled smartphones, and electric vehicle batteries for potential investment opportunities [21][23] - It recommends a balanced investment strategy across growth and value styles, particularly in the TMT and pharmaceutical sectors [16]