Market Overview - The current market is in a phase of upward trend with periodic fluctuations, emphasizing a balanced allocation between technology and value sectors, focusing on structural aspects rather than short-term index movements [1] - The market is expected to stabilize and rise before the Spring Festival, driven by fundamental and liquidity factors, with significant political and economic catalysts anticipated [1] Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors benefiting from the Spring Festival effect and macroeconomic catalysts in February, particularly in technology and value assets [1][3] - Maintain value assets as a core holding while increasing exposure to cyclical industry leaders showing improved sentiment [3] Sector Highlights - AI applications are gaining traction, with major tech companies competing for market share during the Spring Festival, including initiatives from Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba [2] - High-performing technology manufacturing sectors include AI hardware, energy storage, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Future industries of interest include defense, domestic computing power, and controlled nuclear fusion [2] Liquidity and Market Data - The dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, impacting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies [5] - A notable outflow of approximately 370 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs, while sector-specific ETFs saw inflows, particularly in metals and semiconductors [5] - In the Hong Kong market, short-selling activity has returned to historical averages, with net inflows from southbound funds decreasing [6] ETF Holdings Summary - Significant reductions in holdings of major ETFs, with the CSI 300 seeing a decrease of 5,644 million yuan, leaving a remaining share of 42% [7] - Other ETFs also experienced notable reductions, indicating a shift in investment strategies among institutional investors [7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 量化周报 短期调整不足为惧 短期调整不足为惧。本周（1.26-1.30），大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收 跌 0.44%。在此背景下，煤炭迎来日线级别上涨。至此，25 个行业处于日 线级别上涨中。当下，我们认为市场的日线级别上涨大概率还能持续，理 由如下：1、上证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的概率低；2、目 前市场量能得以维持，走势比较健康；3、传媒、计算机、电力及公用事业 已于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的 概率低。本周，市场虽然出现震荡，但并未破坏原有的 30 分钟级别上涨， 也就是说当下的震荡调整连 30 分钟级别都不算，因此，我们认为市场的 短期调整不足为惧，市场仍然新高在望。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、 沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上 涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛市只进行到上半场；此外， 已有 27 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 18 个行业周线上涨走了 1-3 浪结 构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局 ...

Stock Recommendations - The recommended stocks for February 2026 include: - Daotong Technology (688208.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 28.14% and a PE ratio of 34.98[2] - Kaiying Network (002517.SZ) with an expected EPS growth of 27.56% and a PE ratio of 24.92[2] - Huitong Co., Ltd. (688219.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 33.31% and a PE ratio of 12.59[2] - Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ) with an expected EPS growth of 36.66% and a PE ratio of 36.89[2] - Aikedi (600933.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 18.08% and a PE ratio of 19.18[2] - Hongyuan Electronics (603267.SH) with an expected EPS growth of 50.66% and a PE ratio of 54.53[2] Market Performance - The Guoyuan monthly stock portfolio achieved a weighted return of 9.60% in January 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 3.76%[12] - The best-performing stocks in January included: - Kaige Precision Machinery with a return of 42.21%[12] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals with a return of 37.60%[12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include overseas policy risks across various industries and operational risks specific to individual companies[6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the market, focusing on various sectors including technology, resources, and financial services. The analysis highlights the performance of indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the Shanghai Composite Index. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The market is experiencing a weakening momentum, necessitating risk control and attention to the 20-day moving average and external factors affecting resource prices [1][3] - In January, the first three weeks saw strong performance from small-cap indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000, but a cooling trend began in the third week, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average [2][4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is under pressure, with expectations of a prolonged adjustment phase, potentially lasting six months to a year. The previous year's surge of 97.5% in the non-ferrous index makes it unlikely to replicate such gains this year [5][6] - The technology growth sector is showing signs of weakness, with various industries including defense, electronics, and computing experiencing pullbacks [6][7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio with a focus on sectors that are currently undervalued and have a high risk awareness. Caution is recommended for technology growth stocks due to potential short-term volatility [3][4] - Recommended sectors for investment include construction materials, electronics, and communication, which are considered to have a favorable risk-reward ratio [2][12] Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to enter a phase of strong oscillation leading up to the Spring Festival, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap growth indices [8][11] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to enter a bullish cycle, with a potential for upward movement despite current low market sentiment [9][10] Risk Factors - The volatility in global resource prices, such as a 35% drop in silver prices, is impacting related assets and indices, particularly those with significant exposure to non-ferrous resources [4][5] - The potential for further declines in small-cap indices if they do not rebound quickly is a concern, indicating a need for careful monitoring of technical indicators [4][8] Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with opportunities for growth anticipated towards the end of 2026. Investors are encouraged to adjust their portfolios accordingly and focus on sectors with solid fundamentals [11][18] Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring technical indicators such as the 20-day and 5-week moving averages to make timely adjustments to investment positions [4][11] - The discussion includes insights on the cyclical nature of certain sectors, particularly those related to commodities and technology, suggesting a strategic approach to investing in these areas [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a transition from a strong momentum phase to a high-level consolidation phase, with the "steady and far-reaching" policy supporting this shift. The market's internal strength is gradually declining, indicating a need for time to digest valuations and performance [2][6]. Short-term Market Positioning - The short-term market has reached historical high levels, with the A-share floating profit also retreating from these highs. The average holding period remains at historically low levels, indicating excessive trading behavior. The technology sectors that initially led the market have seen a reduction in attractiveness, while cyclical sectors are also experiencing a decline in internal stability [3][5]. Long-term Market Positioning - The opening red market is an extension of the structural market of 2025, with expectations of a mid-term fundamental upcycle. However, as valuations reach historical highs, the market faces increased resistance, necessitating a transition from upward to consolidation phases. This requires time for performance to catch up with valuations [5][21]. Market Characteristics at High Valuation Levels - Four key characteristics of the market at high valuation levels include: 1. Increased difficulty in raising valuations. 2. Stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, requiring new performance drivers. 3. High sensitivity to liquidity shocks, which could trigger adjustments from upper to lower consolidation ranges. 4. The need for "perfect performance validation" to avoid downward adjustments [21][22]. Sector Performance Insights - Various sectors, including communication, electronics, defense, and basic chemicals, have reached historical high valuation levels. The overall PE valuation of A-shares is also at historical highs, indicating a need for performance to catch up with these valuations [5][23]. Policy Impact - The "steady and far-reaching" policy is expected to accelerate the market's transition to the next phase, characterized by style switching and profit expansion, followed by a period of consolidation. This policy is likely to influence the performance of heavyweight stocks that have been under pressure [24][22].

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation between technology and value sectors, focusing on market structure rather than short-term index fluctuations [1][11] - Recent market movements show a stronger rebound in value sectors compared to high-tech, with increased expectations for policies supporting the real estate sector [1][12] - Rising commodity prices and stabilization in certain product prices are aiding valuation recovery in undervalued sectors like real estate and baijiu [1][12] Market Outlook - The report anticipates stabilization and upward movement in Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks) leading into the Lunar New Year, driven by domestic fundamentals and liquidity conditions [2][13] - A series of political and economic catalysts, including local and national meetings and the rollout of the 15th Five-Year Plan, are expected to enhance market sentiment [2][13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests positioning for the Lunar New Year "red packet" rally by focusing on industries benefiting from holiday effects and macroeconomic catalysts [2][14] - Key areas of focus include AI applications, high-quality tech manufacturing, and future industries such as defense and domestic chip production [2][14] Sector Analysis - Non-bank financials, particularly brokers and insurers, are expected to recover from previous outflows due to their strong fundamentals [3][19] - The holiday consumption chain, including sectors like gaming, food and beverage, and travel, is highlighted as a potential growth area [3][19] - Hong Kong dividend assets with earnings leverage, such as real estate and chemicals, are also noted for their potential upside following policy support [3][19] Liquidity Data - A-share ETF flows show a divergence, with broad-based ETFs experiencing significant outflows while sector-specific ETFs saw inflows, particularly in metals and chemicals [4][16] - In Hong Kong, short-selling activity has returned to historical averages, with notable inflows into energy and property sectors [5][17]

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

私募开年密集调研 机构2026年进攻方向，或可从其1月调研路径窥得端倪。据私募排排网统计，1月有近660家私募参与A 股调研活动，合计调研频次超1700次。分行业来看，计算机、机械设备、医药生物和电子等板块备受关 注。在一些业内人士看来，尽管2025年科技板块整体涨幅显著，但从产业趋势和企业盈利情况来看，现 在远未行至"泡沫阶段"，尤其是半导体和AI应用值得重点挖掘。 私募排排网最新统计数据显示，2026年1月共有659家私募参与A股公司调研活动，覆盖了28个申万一级 行业中的332只标的，合计调研频次达1719次。 1月16日，丹羿投资创始人朱亮则调研了通富微电。据公开资料，通富微电是集成电路封装测试服务提 供商，开源证券研究报告分析称，算力产业已开启"军备竞赛"，国产算力跨越式发展的背景下，本土AI 算力芯片蓬勃发展，相关产业链迎来发展窗口，通富微电有望深度受益。 AI基建与应用受关注 私募机构认为，在AI产业高速发展的过程中，机会将持续涌现，科技仍将是2026年不可忽视的投资主 线之一。 畅力资产董事长宝晓辉分析称，作为AI产业的基建，半导体设备领域值得关注。具体来看，当前AI行 业的发展逻辑已发生转变 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated sector rotation, with previously strong-performing sectors like computer and new energy facing corrections, while previously lagging sectors such as liquor and real estate are performing well [2][5] - Despite external disturbances, the A-share market shows signs of a phase of adjustment, but the medium-term outlook remains positive with ample opportunities [3][4] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday is not dampening trading activity, indicating strong market engagement and potential for further development in the spring market [2][3] Group 2 - The market may see a style switch as the spring rally progresses, with a shift from small-cap stocks to large-cap stocks and a focus on quality over speculation [5][6] - The recent performance of liquor and real estate sectors suggests a convergence in market structure as the spring rally enters its latter half, with expectations of balanced upward trends [5][6] - Long-term prospects for the metals sector remain positive due to anticipated demand from AI data centers and renewable energy, despite short-term corrections providing better entry points [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic economic foundation for building a financial powerhouse in China, highlighting the need for comprehensive policies to boost domestic demand and optimize support for new industries [6][7][8] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline in PMI, indicating weakening production and demand, with specific industries like food processing and aerospace remaining in a high prosperity zone while others face pressure [11][12][13] - The real estate sector is projected to hit a bottom in 2026, with historical patterns suggesting a cyclical rather than a trend-based issue, and the report discusses the implications of rental yields and mortgage rates on property prices [30][31][32][34] Macro Economic Analysis - The report outlines macroeconomic policies focusing on enhancing domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with specific measures including a 500 billion yuan investment guarantee plan for private investment [6][7] - It notes that the central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with potential for further rate cuts and liquidity support [7][8] - Fiscal policies are aimed at stimulating consumption and investment, with a focus on service sectors and adjustments in real estate financing [8] Industry Insights - The automotive industry is highlighted with significant growth in FSD paid user penetration, reaching over 12%, and a fivefold increase in global humanoid robot shipments expected in 2025 [53][54] - The chemical industry is experiencing stable prices for refrigerants despite seasonal downturns, with companies like Juhua and Haohua Technology announcing performance increases for 2025 [4] - The food and beverage sector shows resilience in demand, particularly for brands like Moutai, indicating a clear trend of improvement at the bottom [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining positions in the market despite volatility, advocating for a focus on theme-based investments that align with macroeconomic conditions [23][25] - It emphasizes the importance of sector rotation, recommending investments in steel, building materials, media, chemicals, and communication sectors [39][41] - The report also discusses the performance of "quantitative fixed income+" funds, noting their rapid growth and the strategies employed within this category [49][50][51]