Group 1 - The company is facing significant challenges in securing financing, as financial institutions have become increasingly reluctant to provide funds, contrasting with previous times when funding was readily available [4][6] - There is a push for the company to transition towards industrialization and reduce reliance on government support, but the leadership lacks a clear understanding of how to implement this transition effectively [6][10] - The financing department is under immense pressure, often being blamed for unmet financing targets and debt risk management failures, leading to a sense of frustration and confusion among employees [8][10] Group 2 - The current leadership is hesitant to engage in the necessary efforts for industrial transformation, preferring to delay action, which could jeopardize future success [6][10] - Despite the difficulties, there remains a glimmer of hope that successful transformation could elevate the company's status and reputation within the community [10][12] - The company culture reflects a stark contrast between the financing department's struggles and the perceived success of other companies, leading to a feeling of being scapegoated for broader organizational issues [8][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].

Core Insights - The cash flow of urban investment companies has improved in 2024, indicating progress in market-oriented transformation and debt reduction [1][2][3] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 0.81 trillion yuan, marking the first positive net cash flow in five years [1][2] - Urban investment companies are focusing on cash flow management and diversifying income sources to enhance asset utilization and profitability [2][3] Group 1: Cash Flow Improvement - By the end of 2024, urban investment companies' cash inflow reached 23.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06% [1][2] - Nearly 80% of key provincial urban investment companies reported positive cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [3] - The shift in focus from being service providers to comprehensive urban operators is evident, with companies exploring community services to enhance cash flow [3] Group 2: Long-term Equity Investment - Urban investment companies are increasingly engaging in long-term equity investments, with a total scale of 6.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a 12.3% increase from 2023 [6] - Despite the growth in investment scale, net investment income decreased by 6.77% year-on-year to 0.31 trillion yuan [6] - The rationale behind long-term equity investments includes business expansion, profit enhancement, and alignment with regional industrial policies [7] Group 3: Market-oriented Transformation - The transformation of urban investment companies into local state-owned capital operation platforms is gaining traction, focusing on equity and fund investments [7] - Companies are leveraging strong relationships with local governments to participate in industry guidance and enterprise cultivation [7] - The ongoing reforms aim to push local financing platforms to exit by over 50% by mid-2025, indicating a significant shift in operational strategy [5]

调节方法: 调节方法:1、前期差错更 3、首期美错更正 作为城市基础设施建设的主力军，城投平台长期承担着城市开发、基建投资等重任。然而近年来， 35 号文分类监管、47号文债务管控 等政策持续落地，叠加 "335" 指标 等最新要求，城建类业务收缩与债 务压力不断 倒逼着城投产业加速转型 。 在此背景下，城投产业如何突破政策红线、理顺转型路径？我们梳理了一些城 投产业转型实操中的首 发关注细节 分享给大家—— 01 公司债"355"指标下， 政府补贴应关注哪些细节？ √ 指标要求:报告期内,政府补贴占净利润的比重不超过50% | 所有者权益合计 | -15,000.00 | | --- | --- | | 负债及权益小计 | -20,000.00 | | 其他收益 | -20,000.00 | | 所得税费用 | -5,000.00 | | MANS A A B A 1 2 1 | 17 000 00 | | 受影响的报表项目名称 | 早位: 月元 影响 2022 年报表金额 | | --- | --- | | 其他应收款-原值 | -20.000.00 | | 坏账准备-其他应收款 | | | 其他应收款- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively assesses the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprises in 2024 from three dimensions: the profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity. Overall, the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprise - class public bond issuers has increased, with significant differences at the enterprise, industry, and regional levels [3][6][8]. - At the enterprise level, in 2024, although the financial flexibility of enterprises has marginally improved, overall profitability has continued to weaken, short - term liquidity is under pressure, and the liquidity risk has further increased, with intensified pressure on tail enterprises [6]. - At the industry level, in 2024, against the backdrop of shrinking terminal demand and continuous pressure on the entire real - estate chain, liquidity risks have significantly accumulated in industries related to the upstream and downstream of real estate and urban investment platforms deeply tied to land finance. Industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, and the risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly compared to 2023 [6]. - At the regional level, in 2024, Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Construction of the Liquidity Risk Measurement System from the Perspective of Debt Repayment Credit - The assessment of liquidity risk from the perspective of debt - repayment credit is mainly based on the analysis of liquidity sources and applications. Enterprises with good profitability, high financial flexibility, and strong short - term solvency generally face lower liquidity and default risks. The report selects several quantitative financial indicators from three dimensions (profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity) for basic evaluation and maps the scores to a five - level classification of liquidity risk evaluation results (L1 - L5) [4][9][12]. - The basic evaluation indicators include total asset return rate, asset - liability ratio, short - term debt ratio, EBIT/interest expense, (EBITDA - capital expenditure)/interest expense, operating cash flow net amount to current liability ratio, cash - to - short - term debt ratio, current ratio, and cash - to - current liability ratio [11]. 3.2. Sample Overview - Considering data availability, the report selects bond - issuing entities with outstanding public bonds (enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, project revenue notes) as of May 26, 2025, excluding those that have experienced material defaults or have unavailable financial data. A total of 3,061 issuing entities are used as sample data, and their annual reports from 2021 - 2024 are used for analysis. Currently, the issuing entities of outstanding public bonds in China are mainly urban investment and state - owned enterprises [5][13]. 3.3. Analysis of the Liquidity Risk of Non - Financial Enterprise - Class Public Bond Issuers in 2024 3.3.1. Enterprise - Level Analysis - In 2024, the risk center of public bond - issuing entities has further deteriorated, and the proportion of tail enterprises has reached a new high. The overall profitability of enterprises has weakened, with the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreasing by 3.3% compared to the previous year. The proportion of entities with liquidity risk evaluation results of L4 and L5 has increased from 49.0% and 5.4% in 2023 to 52.3% and 7.4% in 2024, respectively [14]. - From the perspective of each indicator dimension, in 2024, the profitability of public bond issuers in China has continued to decline, and the coverage ability of operating cash flow has weakened. Although the financial flexibility has marginally improved, the short - term debt pressure remains high, and the short - term liquidity has generally tightened [20][21]. 3.3.2. Industry - Level Analysis - In 2024, industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises in each industry exceeding 60%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises increasing by more than 10 percentage points [23][24]. - The real - estate industry continues to adjust, with real - estate enterprises facing significant cash - flow pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, cautious development strategies, and high inventory [25]. - The steel industry has seen a decline in production and demand, with prices falling and enterprises facing significant performance pressure and increased liquidity risks [26]. - The basic chemicals industry is in a low - prosperity stage, facing challenges such as over - capacity and weak domestic demand, with the overall profitability under pressure [27]. - The building decoration industry is affected by weak downstream demand, with a decline in new contracts and increased pressure on construction funds, especially for weak - quality tail enterprises [28]. - The commerce and retail industry has been affected by weakening consumer demand, with profit pressure on enterprises [29]. - Urban investment platforms face continued pressure on local finance due to the adjustment of the land market, and although the asset and debt structure has been optimized, the internal operating pressure remains, and the liquidity risk of some weak - quality entities has increased [29]. 3.3.3. Regional - Level Analysis - In 2024, regions such as Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises exceeding 70%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [33][36].

Group 1: Credit Bond Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to continue in a volatile state, with a focus on interest rate strategies and band trading being more favorable than pure selection of varieties [5][38] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds and high-grade long-term bonds to seek opportunities for interest rate compression [5][38] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in high-grade bonds from local government financing vehicles, real estate, and stable industries during market adjustments [5][38] Group 2: Local Government Financing Bonds - The transformation of local government financing vehicles is entering a complex phase, with potential pricing discrepancies as platforms adapt to new regulations [2][43] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to remain low due to strict regulatory oversight and the ongoing transition of platforms [2][43] - Focus on short to medium-term bonds from regions with stable cash flows, particularly in Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Henan, is recommended [2] Group 3: Financial Bonds and Varieties - High-grade perpetual bonds can be traded in response to interest rate fluctuations, but the trading space is limited and requires high trading standards [3][39] - The strategy includes focusing on high-grade bonds with a maturity of 3-5 years for stable institutions, while actively trading lower-grade bonds during market adjustments [3][39] - The expansion of TLAC non-capital instruments and their comparison with secondary capital bonds is highlighted as an area of interest [3][39] Group 4: Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds have shown some recovery in profitability, but performance remains varied across sectors, with strong performance in automotive, machinery, and utilities, while real estate and construction sectors lag [4] - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and stable private enterprises for medium-term investments [4] Group 5: Real Estate Bonds - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a recommendation to focus on high-grade bonds from state-owned enterprises while monitoring the recovery of the sector [4] - The potential for policy support in the real estate market could enhance recovery in core cities, but caution is advised for lower-tier cities [4] Group 6: Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and Public REITs - The market for consumer finance ABS is expanding, with opportunities for variety exploration in a volatile market [3][39] - Public REITs are recommended to balance opportunities in both primary and secondary markets, focusing on stable projects [3][39]

2025 年 06 月 06 日 资产、债务增速双降，城投整合效果显著 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 定 收 益 研 究 固 收 专 题 本报告梳理了截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日公开市场发债并可获取近三年财务信息的 2088 家城投平台（已剔除母子公司），对其 2024 年财务报表进行资产、负债、 权益和财务指标分析，观测城投行业财务表现变化情况。 资产端：城投平台总资产规模稳步增长，头部城投平台资产增速较快 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究报告 《经济略为偏弱，转债波动率历史低 位—固收专题》-2025.6.2 《微观结构拥挤度高，转债防范阶段 调整—固收专题》-2025.5.25 《财政数据，验证经济状态、政策取 向—固收专题》-2025.5.21 陈曦（分析师） 刘瑞（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn liurui2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790525010001 2024 年样本城投平台的整体资产规模为 142.40 万亿元，同比增速为 5.26%，较 2023 年下降 4.40 个百分点。其中资产规模 1000 亿 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the operational data of 655 county-level investment companies, indicating a total asset scale of 30.26 trillion yuan and annual revenue of 1.77 trillion yuan, showcasing improvements in governance and operational capabilities [1][2] - The transformation of county-level investment companies is shifting from "risk breakthrough" to "momentum reshaping," with debt resolution being a prerequisite and differentiated development as the direction [1][5] Asset and Revenue Overview - Among the 655 county-level investment companies, 61 have total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 10 companies surpassing 200 billion yuan, and 3 companies exceeding 300 billion yuan [2] - The average total asset value for these companies is 462.1 million yuan, while the average annual revenue is 27.04 million yuan, indicating that 75% of the companies fall below the average revenue level [2][3] Revenue Distribution - The top 20 county-level investment companies have annual revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with the highest being Qingdao West Coast New Area Integration Holding Group at 54.56 billion yuan [3] - Conversely, some companies report revenues as low as 61 thousand yuan, reflecting a reliance on traditional business models that result in slow project returns and low revenue [3] Market Transformation Strategies - Experts suggest that market-oriented transformation is essential for county-level investment companies to enhance revenue, advocating for participation in local industrial development and establishing sustainable revenue models [4] - Emphasis is placed on improving operational capabilities and introducing market-oriented management mechanisms to boost efficiency and profitability [4] Differentiated Development Approach - The report indicates a need for differentiated development strategies based on regional economic conditions, with recommendations for policy support for both economically developed and underdeveloped areas [6][7] - Leading county-level investment companies should focus on becoming comprehensive state-owned capital investment and operation companies, while smaller companies should concentrate on local advantages and specialized development [7]

"提前兑付可以理解，但绝不能损害投资者的利益。" 根据"22峨眉02"募集说明书，该债券目前余额为6.50亿元，期限为5年期，票面利率为6.00%。该债券由 乐山国有资产投资运营(集团)有限公司担保，当前该只债券剩余期限为2年。 发行人峨眉山发展唯一股东为峨眉山市国有资产监督管理委员会，峨眉山发展负责峨眉山市城市道路、 桥梁、旅游基础设施等工程的建设。 5月20日，峨眉山发展发布《关于提前兑付"峨眉山发展(控股)有限责任公司2022年面向专业投资者非公 开发行公司债券(第二期)"的议案》。 关于提前兑付的原因，峨眉山发展强调，为有效优化财务结构、降低财务成本，现提议对"22峨眉02"全 部剩余本金及应计利息进行提前兑付。每张债券兑付净价为100元。 "在低利率环境下，二级市场投资者的买入价格通常高于票面，如果加速到期，投资者将面临近10%的 亏损"。 5月27日，经济观察报记者获悉，峨眉山发展(控股)有限责任公司(下称"峨眉山发展")宣布，旗下债 券"22峨眉02"计划提前进行兑付。然而，这一决定引发了多家债券持有人的争议。 作为"22峨眉02"的机构持有人之一，朱啸所在的机构于2024年下半年购买了"22峨 ...