Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has become more conservative, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economy showing signs of recession without timely rate cuts, indicating a bear market [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. sovereign rating was downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, with a negative outlook due to high interest costs and unsustainable debt growth [2][25]. - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, purchased $319 million worth of gold mining ETFs in the first quarter, with the GDX ETF returning 31.1%, outperforming the gold ETF's 19.9% [2][25]. - As of May 13, 2023, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased to 345 tons, the lowest level in 63 weeks, while net long positions in silver fell to 4,426 tons [6][2]. Group 2: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - The net long position in gold funds decreased by 39% year-to-date, while silver funds increased by 69% [8][9]. - Platinum funds saw a net long position increase of 58% year-to-date, while copper transitioned from negative to positive [11][13]. - The gold/silver ratio was reported at 99.265, indicating a high level of market fear, with a year-to-date increase of 11.9% [21][23]. Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a probability of 91.4% for no change [24][25]. - There is a potential for significant volatility in the dollar and gold prices due to political dynamics, particularly with the upcoming 2025 elections [27][28]. - Strategies suggested include shorting base metals, shorting U.S. stocks, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions as a defensive measure [28][29].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has secretly purchased $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a return to quantitative easing (QE) practices, which is not typical for the Fed [1] - Financial analyst Lyn Alden suggests that while the Fed has not officially labeled this as QE, the act of buying bonds is essentially a form of monetary easing, regardless of the terminology used [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a lack of trust in politicians and central bankers, with gold being seen as a reliable asset amidst economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has also reacted positively, driven by skepticism towards central planners and the recent halving event that has historically led to bullish trends in its price [2] - The Trump administration's shift towards recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, along with increased institutional investment in Bitcoin ETFs, signifies its growing acceptance in mainstream finance [2] - Brazil's economy, driven by commodities, is experiencing a bull market, with ETFs like iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) rising approximately 24% this year, attributed to the Fed's actions leading to a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices [3] Group 3 - The covert QE actions by the Fed may accelerate returns in gold, Bitcoin, and resource-rich economies like Brazil, positioning them as safe havens and profit opportunities amid financial turbulence [3] - Investors who remain vigilant and act on these signals are likely to capture excess returns, as indicated by Charlie Garcia, founder and managing partner of R360, who holds positions in gold, silver, and Bitcoin [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a comprehensive pilot work plan to accelerate the opening up of the service industry, outlining 155 pilot tasks, with a focus on innovative trading models such as capacity pre-sale and order transactions [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Developments - The plan emphasizes the need for innovation in trading models that align with the needs of the real economy, particularly in the context of bulk commodity spot trading platforms and industrial e-commerce [1] - A seminar will be held to analyze the compliance and risk points of capacity pre-sale and order transaction models, providing insights for industry professionals [1] Group 2: Seminar Details and Expert Contributions - The seminar is scheduled for May 27 at the Qingdao International Energy Exchange Center, featuring key industry figures as speakers [2] - Liu Yu, a notable figure in the design of innovative business models in the bulk commodity sector, will provide in-depth analysis on operational models [2] - Other speakers include Feng Yipeng, who will discuss innovative case studies, and Shi Qiuming, who will offer comprehensive interpretations of policy requirements and compliance [2] Group 3: Participation and Registration - The seminar is open for registration to relevant business leaders from spot trading platforms and industrial e-commerce platforms [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the "capacity pre-sale and order trading model" optimizes resource allocation through "sales-driven production," becoming a key driver for transformation and upgrading in the bulk commodity sector [1][2] - Recent policies, such as the March 2022 document from the Central Committee and State Council, advocate for the construction of a unified national market and the development of bulk commodity trading rules, providing a solid institutional foundation for the innovation of capacity pre-sale and order trading models [1][2] - The September 2023 implementation plan from Pudong New Area supports the innovation of business models like virtual factories and capacity pre-sale, aiming to enhance the integration of trading, manufacturing, and logistics [1][2] Group 2 - The 2025 action plan from Hangzhou also supports the innovation of capacity pre-sale and order trading models, indicating a broader governmental push for high-quality development in bulk commodity trade [2] - The Ministry of Commerce's April 2025 plan highlights the importance of promoting capacity pre-sale and order trading as key tasks, reaffirming their compliance and innovative nature [2] - Experts suggest that local governments should provide more resources and financial support to foster a favorable policy environment for the innovation of these trading models [2] Group 3 - The core of capacity pre-sale and order trading lies in pre-locking future capacity and sales, helping both buyers and sellers optimize resource allocation and reduce market risks [3] - The current state of China's bulk commodity trading market is still in the exploratory phase for these models, lacking unified standards and regulations, which may lead to compliance disputes during innovation [3] - Risk management is a critical topic in the innovation of trading models, with common disputes arising from quality standards, delivery proof validity, and transaction authenticity [3]

大宗商品交易商路易达孚：全球食糖供应平衡将从2024/2025年度的520万吨短缺转变为2025/2026年度 的40万吨过剩。 ...

中美贸易僵局可能正发生转变的迹象越来越明显，双方贸易谈判的前景有助于缓解投资者对全球经济下滑的担忧 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 编辑｜苏琦 中美关系在5月初释放新信号，带来关税利好。中国商务部表示，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在 进行评估。这是一项全球期待已久的消息。消息传出后，全球市场沸腾。 港股节后5月开门红，恒生科指收涨3%，欧美股指期货全线上涨。欧洲斯托克50指数期货涨逾1%。欧洲股指周五强劲上涨，受中美贸易谈判希望提振， 同时投资者消化了大量企业财报。德国DAX指数收盘上涨2.6%，法国CAC 40指数上涨2.3%，英国FTSE 100指数上涨1.1%。中国资产雄起，中概股涨势更 胜美股大盘一筹，离岸人民币在美股开盘后涨幅进一步扩大，一度较日低涨超700点、五个月来首次盘中涨破7.21。 原油短线转涨，黄金回吐部分涨幅。 贸易战的暖风叠加美国非农就业人口增长意外强劲，共同推升风险偏好。摄/金焱 5月2日周五，贸易战的暖风叠加美国非农就业人口增长意外强劲，共同推升风险偏好，美股、比特币及更广泛的加密货币等高风险资产价格也有所上涨。 美股高开高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Property Rights Exchange Center announced the transfer of a 10% stake in Qilu Commodity Trading Service Co., Ltd. by Zhangdian State-owned Assets Operation Co., Ltd. at a base price of 1 yuan, despite the company's negative net profit and net asset valuation [1][2]. Group 1: Company Financials - Qilu Commodity reported a revenue of 6.19 thousand yuan and a net loss of 217.43 thousand yuan for 2023, with a revenue of 0.03 thousand yuan and a net loss of 90.26 thousand yuan from January to September 2024 [2]. - As of September 30, 2024, Qilu Commodity's total assets were 866.69 thousand yuan, total liabilities were 1,090.39 thousand yuan, resulting in a net asset value of -223.7 thousand yuan [2]. - The assessed value of the transferred stake corresponds to a net asset valuation of -22.37 thousand yuan [2]. Group 2: Ownership and Control - Zhangdian State-owned Assets was established in 2016 with a registered capital of 910 million yuan, fully controlled by the Zhangdian District People's Government State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau [2]. - The other shareholder of Qilu Commodity is China New Housing Tai Tong Industrial Co., Ltd., which holds a 90% stake [3]. Group 3: Recent Investment Trends - Zhangdian State-owned Assets has been actively investing, with over 40 companies in its investment portfolio [4]. - However, in 2025, there has been a notable trend of divesting from various companies, with multiple exits recorded, amounting to nearly 3 billion yuan in total investment [5][7]. - The company has also made some new investments, such as a 2 million yuan investment in Zibo Kunpeng Cultural Tourism Development Co., Ltd. [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Context - The recent stake transfer aligns with the Shandong provincial government's directive for state-owned enterprises to focus on their core responsibilities [3]. - A regulatory document issued in August 2023 emphasized the need for stricter oversight of state-owned asset transactions and compliance with financing plans [3].

Group 1 - The Chinese government is accelerating the opening of the service industry amid rising unilateralism and protectionism globally, with a new comprehensive pilot work plan that includes 155 pilot tasks [1] - The work plan encourages the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries to enhance international competitiveness, particularly through innovations in trading models such as capacity pre-sale and order transactions [1] - The establishment of a trading settlement system that aligns with international norms and promotes RMB-denominated products is emphasized to facilitate the efficient integration of manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - Recent innovations in capacity pre-sale and order trading models on commodity trading platforms have addressed many challenges faced by enterprises and positively impacted the integration of manufacturing and services [2] - The Shanghai Steel Trading Center showcases how production capacities can be auctioned online, allowing sellers to secure customers and buyers to lock in prices, thus enhancing operational efficiency [2] - The "LNG Order Pass," set to launch in June 2024, represents a new order trading model in the oil and gas sector, aimed at improving market transparency and flexibility [2] Group 3 - The "LNG Order Pass" features characteristics such as price locking, dual fulfillment assurance, transparency, and competitive flexibility, which help enterprises manage market uncertainties and efficiently allocate resources [3] - By driving precise matching along the supply chain and embedding services into manufacturing, the integration efficiency of manufacturing and services can be significantly improved [3] - Innovations in trading models and enhanced service levels on commodity trading platforms can strengthen China's resource allocation influence in the global value chain, providing new infrastructure support for service industry expansion [3]

目前，可再生能源的发电量已占全球总发电量的近三分之一，然而，变幻莫测的天气仍是一项严峻挑战。 全球能源格局正在经历一场巨变。在追求可持续发展与碳中和目标的推动下，可再生能源已然成为这场能源 转型的核心力量。然而，这一转变也带来了不可预测性的难题，毕竟风能、太阳能等可再生能源的发电量本 质上与天气状况紧密相连。为有效应对这一挑战，能源行业正日益倚重先进的气象分析技术，力求在不断变 化的市场需求面前，保障能源供应的可靠性、提升运营效率并增强系统的抗风险能力。 气象与能源的交汇点 损毁、长期干旱导致的水电产能下降，还是极端气温引发的能源需求激增。强大的气象分析能力使能源供应 商能够提前预判这些极端事件，做好充分准备，并在事件发生后更迅速地恢复运营，从而全面提升整个能源 系统的韧性。 支持能源转型 在全球迈向净零目标的征程中，将可再生能源无缝融入电网的能力，将成为决定转型成功与否的关键要 素。 气象分析在这一融合进程中扮演着举足轻重的角色，它确保可再生能源在满足能源需求的同时，不会 牺牲电网的稳定性与运行效率。 在传统能源体系中，天气所发挥的作用较为有限。化石燃料发电厂能够依据实际需求灵活调整发电量，基本 不受气象条 ...