华见早安之声 市场概述 周五，美国最高法院暂未公布对特朗普关税的判决，非农就业数据好坏参半，标普500涨0.6%，创新高，纳指100涨1%。周五与关税高度相关的股票盘中下 跌。英特尔大涨超10%，CEO此前与特朗普会面。甲骨文涨近5%。 非农报告强化了市场对于美联储1月维持利率不变的预期，对利率敏感的2年期美债收益率上行4.39基点。 美元四连涨，升至一个月高点。美元兑日元一度涨穿158，报道称日本首相拟解散议会，为提前大选铺路。 加密货币周五走低，比特币一度跌破9万美元。比特币在周初强劲上涨后回吐涨幅，全周大致收平。 现货黄金价格上涨0.7%，重回4500美元上方，全周累计涨超4%、重新逼近历史高位。现货白银涨3.8%，全周飙升10%。由于伊朗加强了对国内抗议活动的 镇压，以及特朗普威胁称将对示威者采取行动，WTI原油一度涨2.3%、随后涨幅收窄至0.6%。 要闻 中方加严管制两用物项，坚决遏制日本军国主义图谋。 特朗普再次威胁伊朗，被曝已听取军事打击方案汇报；伊朗军方：团结起来挫败敌人阴谋。 特朗普：很快打击墨西哥境内。 英媒爆料：特朗普已下令美军司令部制定"入侵"格陵兰岛计划，遭军方抵制。 加拿大担心" ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry as a whole, but it highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics, indicating potential investment opportunities based on historical percentiles [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks the valuation of A-shares as of January 9, 2026, with the overall market PE at 22.4 times and PB at 1.9 times, indicating a historical percentile of 83% and 49% respectively [1][2]. - Key sectors with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, and IT Services [1][2]. - The semiconductor market is projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in sales by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [3]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The overall market PE is 22.4x, with a historical percentile of 83% [1][2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 12x, with a historical percentile of 65% [1][2]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, with a historical percentile of 41% [1][2]. Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Real Estate - Automation Equipment - Retail - Chemical Pharmaceuticals - Electronics - IT Services [1][2]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Defense and Military - Electronics (Semiconductors) - Telecommunications [1][2]. Sector-Specific Insights New Energy - The photovoltaic industry sees a mixed trend with upstream silicon prices down by 9.4% while downstream battery prices increased by 1.3% [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.9% due to supply disruptions [1][2]. Technology (TMT) - The semiconductor index rose by 3.7%, with global sales increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [3]. - DRAM prices increased by 10.9%, indicating strong demand in the cloud services sector [3]. Real Estate Chain - Steel prices increased slightly, while cement prices remained stable [3]. - The glass market is expected to reach a weak balance due to production adjustments [3]. Consumer Goods - Pork prices decreased by 1.0%, while wholesale prices for liquor increased by 2.2% [3]. - Agricultural products showed mixed price movements, with corn prices stable and soybean prices up by 0.8% [3]. Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales increased by 19.2% year-on-year, driven by equipment upgrades and demand from mining sectors [3]. Cyclical Industries - Industrial metals saw price increases, with copper up by 4.1% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices rose by 3.7% due to geopolitical tensions [3].

随着AI浪潮从训练阶段向推理应用大规模迁移，被视为"AI工作记忆"的存储板块正迎来前所未有的价值 重估。2026年首个完整交易周，美股三大股指全线大幅上涨。道指周涨2.32%，报49504.07点；标普500 指数周涨1.57%，报6966.28点；而纳指周涨1.88%，报23671.35点。其中，道指、标普500指数均创历史 收盘新高。 存储概念股也走高，闪迪单周大涨37.12%，股价再创新高，美光科技涨9.41%，西部数据和希捷科技分 别涨6.8%和5.73%。野村证券的一份研报指出，企业级SSD使用的大容量3D NAND需求持续火爆，闪迪 本季度相关产品价格环比或暴涨逾100%。 消息面上，一份野村证券近期的研报引发了市场传播。分析师指出，面对未来几个季度服务器级存储需 求保持强劲的背景，闪迪可能在本季度将其面向企业级固态硬盘（SSD）的大容量3D NAND闪存价格 上调一倍。 市场对存储板块的重估，核心逻辑在于AI工作负载的性质转变。IDC数据显示，全球年度数据生成量预 计将从2024年的173 ZB飙升至2029年的527 ZB，五年内增长两倍以上，复合年增长率约为25%。而AI模 型数据爆炸对存储 ...

上证指数16连阳，策略分析师普遍乐观看待后市。 申万策略王胜团队称，春季不缺钱，也不缺有利于做多的时间窗口。春季不缺钱：ETF冲量+保险开门红+外资回流预期为基础， 中小投资者流入加速+交易性资金活跃度提升+存量加仓成为了边际资金。 此外，春季有利于做多的时间窗口连续不断：1月排除了经济下行风险后，构成典型没有重大风险的时间窗口。2月春节前反弹是 A股胜率最高的日历特征之一，同时这也是科技领域可能兑现重磅催化的窗口。3月两会可能审议十五五规划正式稿，政策催化可 能更加丰富。4月特朗普可能访华，中美经贸关系缓和确认期，也是稳定资本市场预期的关键窗口。以此为基础，春季行情演绎 了风险偏好驱动的特征。 兴证策略张启尧团队分析称，本轮A股"开门红"，首先是国内宏观环境偏暖、流动性充裕为市场风险偏好托底，从而对于推动全 球股市上涨的共同宏观与产业叙事做出积极反应，进一步强化主线的共识与赚钱效应，带动更多增量资金入市，内外因素共同推 动资金流入与市场上涨形成相互强化的正循环。 中信策略裘翔团队指出，从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动 的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会 ...

Market Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by positive factors such as stable prices and improved investment expectations, with overall liquidity remaining ample and trading activity active [3][4] - The CPI for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, better than the previous value of 0.7%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, a smaller decline compared to the previous 2.2% [15][19] - The recovery in PPI indicates price stabilization, which is expected to positively impact corporate profitability and enhance market risk appetite [4][15] Industry Configuration - The military industry sector has reached a historical high in trading congestion, with the defense military trading congestion at 9.4%, the highest since 2000, and the aerospace equipment sector also hitting a record high of 2.3% [21][22] - The growth phase of the market is not yet at its end, as key indicators such as the simultaneous new highs of major growth sectors have not been met, particularly in the electric equipment, computer, and communication sectors [25][26] - The current growth style is showing signs of acceleration, but it does not fully meet the characteristics of a strong market, indicating that the growth phase may still be in its early stages [29][31] Investment Opportunities - The AI industry chain is identified as the strongest mainline investment opportunity, with a focus on computing power, supporting components, and applications [34][35] - Other sectors to watch include storage and energy chains, military industry, and machinery equipment, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and demand driven by AI and geopolitical events [35][36]

国泰君安期货·君研海外 境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告 国泰君安期货研究所· 海外研究 戴璐 Z0021475 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 美股：本周顺周期板块领涨，科技板块延续缩圈结构 本周美股消费和材料行业领涨，科技内部缩圈结构延续 u 本周美股顺周期板块领涨，科技板块延续缩圈结构。我们此前持续提示 2026年美股风格有望更均衡，科技和非科技板块的K型分化有望收敛，而科 技板块将呈现"缩圈"结构，以上观点近两周基本得到验证。年初至今，原材 料/消费/工业等顺周期板块均跑赢科技，科技板块内部硬件明显跑赢软件， 同时伴随商业航天/机器人等主题概念板块活跃。下周，美股将迎来财报季 和通胀等重磅数据（下周MS/GS/BOA等金融机构集中披露财报），对于美 股维持乐观判断，延续科技+周期的配置思路。 资料来源：彭博，国泰君安期货研究 u 2026年美股配置思路：市场风格更均衡，结构把握"科技缩圈"，AI叙事下半 场关注"实物AI"的主题投资机会。Mag7和 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 把握做多窗口，牛市行情或将继续推进 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾： 2026 年 A 股实现"开门红"，沪指 16 连阳刷新历史连续阳线记录，主要宽基指数普涨，市场风险偏好持续回 升，成长和小盘风格占优。资金层面，本周 A 股日成交额再度突破 3 万亿元，融资交易活跃，融资余额突破 2.6 万亿元创历史新高；结构上，商业航天、卫星导航、脑机接口、核聚变等热点持续涌现，涨价相关的有色 金属也录得较佳收益。大宗商品价格多数上涨，本周贵金属、工业金属再度上行，焦煤期货大涨 7.2%。外汇 方面，本周美元指数上行，离岸人民币对美元汇率在 6.9 附近震荡。 ·市场展望：把握做多窗口，牛市行情或将继续推进。伴随市场成交额突破 3 万亿元，A 股震荡中枢再度向 上突破，A 股春季做多窗口期有望延续：一是 12 月 PMI 和通胀数据好于预期，为春季行情提供基本面支撑； 二是场外资金入市意愿显著回升。年初至今融资资金、外资等增量资金加速流入，后续保险资 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with December 2025 PMI and inflation data showing a seasonal rebound, indicating better demand and supply conditions [9][12][24] - Various commodity prices have shown signs of recovery from their lows since mid-December 2025, with non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and black raw materials leading the recovery [9][12] - The micro-funding environment remains ample, with institutional funds providing incremental support, and trading funds expected to gradually recover, enhancing market liquidity [12][24] Group 2 - The thematic market is very active, with potential for further index uplift if the themes can expand into relatively low sectors [16][24] - Future thematic allocations should focus on sectors with price increase expectations supported by performance, such as non-ferrous metals, power battery supply chains, and chemicals [17][24] - Other areas of interest include themes that may see policy or unexpected technological breakthroughs, such as AI applications and tourism consumption [17][24] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market conditions may favor a bullish sentiment, with the potential for a spring market rebound if the thematic trends continue to spread [8][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors and themes, particularly those that are expected to benefit from policy support and technological advancements [17][24] - The report emphasizes the need for caution regarding potential volatility in the short term, especially in high-demand technology themes like commercial aerospace and satellite internet [17][24]

据野村证券，SanDisk(SNDK.US)预计未来几季度服务器级存储需求强劲，可能在本季度将用于企业级 固态硬盘的高容量3D NAND存储芯片价格提高一倍。SanDisk股价周五大涨13%，其他存储产品制造商 股价亦全线飙升。美光科技(MU.US)上涨5.5%，希捷科技(STX.US)暴涨近7%，西部数据(WDC.US)攀升 约7%。 报告称，野村证券认为，存储供应商计划上调企业级3D NAND价格，既出于短期供应短缺考虑，也基 于中期需求增长预期——这一趋势整体由人工智能推动，特别是AI存储架构的变革。报告提到，英伟 达(NVDA.US)基于BlueField-4DPU、搭载512GB SSD并配备KV缓存的推理上下文存储平台(ICMSP)被列 为今年企业存储需求的主要驱动力之一。 本周早些时候曾有报道称，三星电子(SSNLF)和SK海力士计划在第一季度将服务器内存价格最高上调至 70%，AI需求的激增正冲击全球供应链格局。 分析指出："渠道调查显示，多家存储供应商持续推动价格上涨，其中企业级NAND涨幅尤为激进。据 称，用于企业级SSD的SanDisk NAND芯片在三月当季价格环比涨幅可能超过100% ...

周五(1月9日)，欧美股市集体收涨。截至收盘，美国三大股指全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数涨0.48%报49504.07点，标普500指数涨0.65%报6966.28点，纳斯 达克指数涨0.81%报23671.35点。其中，道琼斯工业指数、标普500指数均创历史收盘新高。本周，道琼斯工业指数涨2.32%，标普500指数涨1.57%，纳斯 达克指数涨1.88%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 49504.07d | 237.96 | 0.48% | 3.00% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23671.35d | 191.33 | 0.81% | 1.85% | | 标普500 | 6966.28 | 44.82 | 0.65% | 1.76% | 欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.53%报25261.64点，法国CAC40指数涨1.44%报8362.09点，英国富时100指数涨0.8%报10124.6点。本周， 德国DAX指数涨2.94%，法国CAC40指数涨2.04%，英国富时100指数涨1 ...