一袋猫粮数百元、宠物疫苗年销售额破亿元，以及宠物专用扫地机器人逐渐成为城市养宠家庭标配，从 数据来看，宠物消费从过去的边缘成为拉动消费增长的新引擎。近日，京东发布的数据显示，宠物消费 逐年增长。2025年，养宠家庭作为一个独特的消费单元，需求贯穿了家居清洁、环境健康、休闲娱乐乃 至家具设计等各个生活领域。宠物，成为撬动智能家居、健康家电甚至快消品等庞大市场新增量的关键 变量。新品消费的迅猛增长和品牌推新频率的加快，正是这一"融合创新"活力的体现。 生态扩张 "宠物+"消费爆发 宠物经济最引人瞩目的趋势是"外溢效应"与服务功能"融合能力"。宠物消费不再局限于食品、用品等传 统品类，它像"靶向系统"一样，点向传统品类时，为其注入新的增长动能。 宠物消费呈现"宠物需求人性化""人类产品宠物化"的特点。以传统的家用电器吸尘器为例，京东数据显 示，2025年，北京地区宠物吸毛器成交额增长65%，除此以外，智能猫厕所、宠物摄像头等养宠类刚需 电器的销售实现快速增长。京东方面指出，扫地机器人、空气净化器、除螨仪等传统生活家电，纷纷推 出"养宠家庭适用"版本，并成为重要的增长点。 另外，数据显示，北京地区鱼缸/水族箱品类实现 ...

1）价格：2026H1预计猪价延续低迷，行业延续低利润。2）产能：产能政策和周期调节，产能去化持续。3）负债降低，成本下降。关注成本改善、具备成 长性的生猪养殖企业。 禽养殖：白鸡供需静待修复，黄鸡需求或提升。 1）白鸡产业链价格陷入深度低迷，供需回归平衡尚需时间。2）黄鸡价格或将小幅修复，关注中华土鸡推广活动对黄鸡消费的带动作用。 牛养殖：养殖周期长，供给侧收缩推动价格上涨。 报告导读： 2026年，生猪和肉牛养殖有望迎来周期拐点。宠物赛道成长性明确，产销研 三环节俱全具备的公司在卷流量竞争中有望获胜。种植赛道特色标的成长性显著，值得关 注。 生猪养殖：政策、周期双驱动，产能逻辑催化。 宠物：成长明确，国产崛起，产销研三环节俱全具备强竞争力。 1）宠物市场蓬勃发展，宠物主消费力仍强，且为宠物付费的意愿提升，宠物赛道成长性明确。2）2025年行业陷入卷流量做大收入规模困境，宠物品牌在营 销费用投放方面加大力度，影响行业公司短期利润率。3）产销研三环节俱全的公司稀缺，此类公司有望在行业竞争中获得胜利，关注自主品牌增速和价格提 升情况。 风险提示： 气温气候大幅波动的风险；农产品价格大幅波动的风险；养殖疫情和农产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pet economy, with a market size of 300 billion and a gross margin of up to 50%, appears lucrative but is proving challenging for large companies to profit from [6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The pet food sector is the most popular category, with domestic brands achieving gross margins of 40%-50%, and some products, like high-end cat food, reaching a gross margin of 44.7% [8]. - Despite the high gross margins, many companies in the pet industry, such as Zhongchong Co. and Petty Co., report low net profit margins, with Zhongchong's gross margin at 28.16% and net margin at only 9.33% for 2024 [9]. - The high gross margins in the pet economy are often offset by significant marketing and operational costs, leading to a situation where companies struggle to convert revenue into profit [11][12]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Large Companies - Large companies entering the pet market, like Hema, have faced significant losses, with Hema's Pet Fresh store losing over 20,000 yuan per month and closing after just nine months [6][9]. - The reliance on KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) for marketing has led to increased sales expenses, which can consume a large portion of revenue, making it difficult for companies to achieve profitability [12][16]. - The pet economy is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with many successful businesses being small, owner-operated shops rather than large chains [20][24]. Group 3: Emotional Value vs. Cost - The perceived high margins in the pet economy are often attributed to the emotional value pet owners place on their pets, but this emotional value comes with significant costs, particularly in marketing and service delivery [11][14]. - Services like pet grooming and veterinary care can be profitable, but they require skilled personnel, making it difficult for large companies to scale effectively [20][23]. Group 4: Comparison with Other Industries - The challenges faced by the pet economy are similar to those in other high-margin industries like beauty and medical aesthetics, where the profitability often lies with individual practitioners rather than large companies [18][19]. - The pet industry, like the beauty industry, is heavily reliant on personal relationships and trust, which complicates efforts to scale operations [22][24].

Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, anticipating a rebound in the meat and dairy cycles, benefiting industries related to dairy and beef cattle [1][4] - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments, such as YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a focus on industry leaders poised for recovery [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant reversal, with a focus on beef and dairy cattle. The domestic beef production capacity is anticipated to decrease to levels seen during the 2019 pig cycle, with prices expected to rise until 2028 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic raw milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to production capacity pressures. The "meat and milk ratio" has reached historical highs, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [14][36] - Recommended companies in the livestock sector include YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are expected to benefit from improving raw milk prices and the upward trend in beef prices [14][17] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.67 yuan/kg, reflecting a 13% month-on-month increase [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the swine industry, such as Huazhong Holdings and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to see significant cash flow improvements and higher dividend returns due to their low-cost advantages [15][19] - The overall industry is projected to stabilize, with a focus on valuation recovery for leading firms as the market adjusts to supply and demand dynamics [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is witnessing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery. The price of broiler chickens has shown a month-on-month increase of 9% [22] - The report notes that the structure of parent stock is changing, which may impact actual supply growth. However, demand is expected to benefit from domestic stimulus policies and macroeconomic improvements [22][28] - Key companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Food and Shengnong Development, which are positioned to maintain good profitability amid these changes [18][22] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising consumer segment, with domestic brands rapidly gaining market share. The emotional consumption trend is expected to drive long-term growth in this sector [16][18] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, which is focusing on product upgrades and direct sales transformation to capture market opportunities [16][18] Feed and Grain Sector - The feed sector is benefiting from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] - The report indicates that corn prices are at a historical low, with strong support expected from cost structures, while soybean meal prices are also at low valuations, awaiting a cyclical rebound [18][21]

一袋猫粮数百元、宠物疫苗年销售额破亿元，以及宠物专用扫地机器人逐渐成为城市养宠家庭标配，从数据来看，宠物消费从过去的边缘成为拉动消费增长 的新引擎。近日，京东发布的数据显示，宠物消费逐年增长。2025年，养宠家庭作为一个独特的消费单元，需求贯穿了家居清洁、环境健康、休闲娱乐乃至 家具设计等各个生活领域。宠物，成为撬动智能家居、健康家电甚至快消品等庞大市场新增量的关键变量。新品消费的迅猛增长和品牌推新频率的加快，正 是这一"融合创新"活力的体现。 无论是养宠家庭保洁，还是上门喂养，都标志着养宠消费观念从"养宠"向"宠养"迭代，各类宠物饮食健康、情感满足、个性体验、医疗保健等服务型消费新 赛道涌现。 京东数据指出，宠物健康已成为无可争议的消费增长第一动力。全国宠物消费大盘中，2025年，宠物处方食品同比增幅高达290%，宠物治疗药增长80%， 情绪舒缓类产品增长超90%，这些数字远高于传统品类增长。 在直播渠道，宠物处方食品、驱虫和综合营养稳居销量前三。具体到产品，皇家品牌的泌尿道、肠道处方粮，硕腾的速诺消炎片、勃欣定（宠物心脏病药） 等专业药品销量突出。 生态扩张 "宠物+"消费爆发 宠物经济最引人瞩目的趋势是 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 农林牧渔 2026 年 1 月投资策略 优于大市 看好肉奶周期共振反转，奶牛及肉牛相关产业受益 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头）、现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）、德康农牧（创新农户合作模式 的生猪养殖标的）、立华股份（低成本黄鸡与生猪养殖标的）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：12 月末生猪 12.67 元/公斤，月环比上涨 13%， 7kg 仔猪价格约 231.67 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Chinese pet industry is in a "golden development period" characterized by high growth and resilience, with a projected market size increase from 725 billion CNY in 2015 to 3,598 billion CNY by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.66% [2][4]. Core Insights - The Chinese pet industry is experiencing significant structural upgrades, with consumption shifting towards high-value areas such as medical care and smart products, driven by increasing pet ownership and consumer spending [1][2]. - The industry is characterized by a younger, highly educated, and middle-to-high-income demographic, with pet ownership becoming an integral part of family life [13][14]. - The report highlights the rapid rise of domestic brands leveraging local innovation and supply chain advantages, with a focus on high-end and global market expansion [1][19]. Market Structure - The market is expanding rapidly, with the urban pet population expected to exceed 124 million by the end of 2024, and average spending per pet increasing significantly [4][5]. - Pet food remains the largest market segment, accounting for 52.8% of total consumption in 2024, with notable growth in medical care spending, which rose from 19% in 2018 to 28% [7][9]. - The penetration rates for various pet categories are increasing, with pet food and medical services showing strong growth potential, while traditional grooming services face challenges [9][12]. Consumer Demographics - The pet consumer base is predominantly composed of individuals born in the 1990s and 2000s, who represent 66.8% of the market, indicating a shift towards younger pet owners [13][14]. - The report notes a significant increase in married pet owners, reflecting a change in the perception of pets as family members rather than mere companions [14][17]. - Online purchasing channels dominate, accounting for 68.1% of pet product sales, while offline channels are preferred for service-related purchases [18]. Industry Chain and Segmentation - The pet industry chain encompasses food, products, and services, with a clear trend towards brand specialization and lifecycle service upgrades [19][20]. - The pet food segment is projected to grow from 157 billion CNY in 2012 to 1,585 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 21.2%, indicating strong resilience and potential for growth [21]. - The smart pet products market is rapidly expanding, with significant increases in sales for smart feeding devices and health monitoring products [22][23]. Future Trends - The report anticipates a convergence of technology and emotional consumerism in the pet industry, with smart devices enhancing pet care experiences and emotional services becoming more prevalent [28][29]. - Globalization is expected to create new opportunities, with Chinese pet food exports projected to grow significantly, indicating a shift towards international markets [30]. - Cross-industry innovations, such as pet-friendly travel and integrated home designs, are expected to emerge, providing new growth avenues for the pet industry [31].

Core Viewpoint - The pet economy, while appearing lucrative with a market size of 300 billion and gross margins up to 50%, is not a profitable venture for large companies due to high operational costs and reliance on human capital rather than scalable business models [4][10][30]. Industry Overview - The pet economy is characterized by high gross margins, particularly in pet food, where domestic brands can achieve margins of 40%-50% [10][11]. - Service sectors such as grooming and veterinary care also show high potential margins, but the actual profitability for companies is often low due to high operational costs [10][15]. Company Performance - Major players like Pet Fresh and others have faced significant losses, with Pet Fresh closing 18 stores after burning through 178 million RMB in just nine months, averaging losses of over 200,000 RMB per store monthly [5][11]. - Companies like Zhongchong Co. and Petty Co. report low net profit margins, with Zhongchong's gross margin at 28.16% and net margin at only 9.33% [11][12]. Marketing and Sales Costs - The cost of acquiring customers through KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) and marketing has skyrocketed, with sales expenses for companies like Guibao Pet increasing from under 100 million RMB in 2017 to 500 million RMB in 2024, leading to diminished net profit margins despite increased sales [13][14]. Challenges in Scaling - The pet economy is heavily reliant on personal relationships and trust between pet owners and service providers, making it difficult for large companies to replicate the success of smaller, independent businesses [27][30]. - The high costs associated with maintaining quality service and customer trust, such as expensive store locations and high employee wages, hinder profitability for larger firms [15][28]. Comparison with Other Industries - Similar challenges are observed in other high-margin industries like beauty and medical services, where the core value lies in skilled personnel rather than scalable business operations [19][20][24]. - The pet industry exemplifies a trend where the most profitable segments are those that rely on individual expertise and customer relationships, rather than mass-market strategies [30].

出品 | 36氪未来消费（微信ID：lslb168） 离你更近的消费创投一线。 整理 | 兰杰 Busy Money 潮玩品牌"黑玩"完成过亿元A轮融资 此轮融资由金鼎资本领投，祥峰投资跟投。本轮所融资金将主要用于打通线上线下渠道体系，提升销售效率；布局欧美、日韩等核心海外市场，组建本土 化团队。 黑玩拥有10个以上自研IP，且"哦崽"和"MIMI"两大IP的年度GMV过亿。 潮玩公司"杰森娱乐"近日获得新一轮融资，金额达数亿元 杰森娱乐(全称广东杰森娱乐发展有限公司)，旗下拥有Card.Fun集卡社、GOODSFUN森罗万象、XTREME ARTS造极、TOYFANS潮玩分子等潮玩品 牌。 宠物产业服务平台"宠乐Go"获得超4000万的天使轮融资 据IT桔子消息，宠乐Go，全称深圳市宠优购科技有限公司，是一家综合性宠物产业服务平台，专注于为宠物提供优质、安全、有趣的产品体验，形成了 线上线下深度融合的服务格局。公司推出的宠物用品AI便利店合作项目，将公司在宠物用品选品和供应链管理方面的能力与人工智能技术相结合，运用物 联网设备和移动支付系统，实现24小时无人值守运营。 中国具身智能机器人公司"深庭纪智能"完 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of consumer behavior in 2025 reflects a return to rational spending, with consumers becoming more selective about their purchases, particularly for non-essential items [2][3] - Consumers are still willing to spend on items that bring joy or utility, indicating a shift towards valuing meaningful purchases over impulsive buying [2][3] - The trend of spending on health and fitness is highlighted, with consumers investing in gym memberships and wellness activities, as seen in the decision to purchase a long-term swimming card [3][4] Group 2 - The enjoyment derived from swimming is emphasized, showcasing how physical activity can lead to a sense of well-being and relaxation, which is a significant aspect of consumer spending on health [4][9] - The narrative includes observations of social interactions in swimming facilities, indicating a community aspect to fitness that enhances the overall experience [6][8] - The article discusses the emotional value of spending on plants, with consumers finding joy and satisfaction in nurturing them, which reflects a growing trend in emotional value consumption [15][17] Group 3 - The article notes a decline in spending on traditional entertainment like movies, yet highlights a consistent interest in cinema, suggesting that while the medium may be perceived as outdated, it still holds value for certain demographics [28][29] - The experience of watching films in theaters is described as irreplaceable, emphasizing the unique atmosphere and engagement that cinemas provide compared to home viewing [30][35] - The article mentions a significant contribution to the box office from consumers, indicating that despite concerns about the industry's future, there remains a dedicated audience for quality films [29][35] Group 4 - The increase in attendance at comedy shows and live performances reflects a growing interest in live entertainment, suggesting a shift in consumer preferences towards experiences that offer immediate enjoyment [38][39] - The article highlights the importance of personal connections with performers and the emotional impact of live comedy, which enhances the value of such experiences for consumers [38][39] - The narrative also touches on the appreciation for high-quality performances in ballet, indicating a willingness to invest in cultural experiences that provide aesthetic pleasure [43][44] Group 5 - The trend of purchasing physical books over digital formats is noted, with consumers seeking tangible items that facilitate focus and engagement, reflecting a desire for deeper connections with reading material [46][47] - The article discusses the emotional resonance of certain books, particularly those that reflect personal experiences and societal issues, indicating a trend towards literature that offers relatable narratives [48][50] - The ongoing investment in pet care, particularly for aging pets, highlights a commitment to animal welfare and the emotional bonds that drive consumer spending in this area [54][56]