如何看待后续地产政策与产业链的投资机会？20251120 摘要 房价下行周期分为小型、中型和大型泡沫，分别对应不同的跌幅和持续 时间。租售比和房价收入比等估值指标对判断房价拐点有参考意义，但 通常滞后于房价实际拐点。 核心城市房价承压主要源于收入或通胀预期不乐观以及租售比和利率倒 挂。通过贴息或抵税等方式降低购房成本，全局性、普遍性的补助能更 有效地提振市场信心和需求。 贷款贴息政策对房地产市场影响显著，覆盖范围和持续时间是关键。若 仅覆盖新房，财政代价较小，但若包括存量贷款或二手房，财政负担将 大幅增加。 收入预期比利率本身更重要。改善收入预期和优化分配是提高购房吸引 力的关键，实际房贷利率的降低可以通过解决租售比倒挂问题来提高购 房吸引力。 房地产行业面临成交量走弱、新旧库存压力和收入预期低迷等多重挑战。 优质龙头公司通过提升市占率和优化格局，展现出较强的抗风险能力， 业绩增长潜力较大。 Q&A 进入三季度以来，地产行业的基本面景气度出现了加速下滑，市场对政策博弈 的预期升温。未来哪些政策仍然值得期待？这些政策的有效性如何？ 在我们对全球 1970 年以来 58 个经济体所形成的 195 个房价周期进行复 ...

海尔智家 20251120 摘要 海尔智家 10 月运营良好，国内外市场均实现中位数偏左增长，国内市 场表现出较强韧性，优于行业整体水平。 为应对 2025 年国补政策带来的高基数效应，海尔智家提升产品竞争力， 特别是空调和水产品表现突出，并通过数字化库存改革提高全流程效率。 公司通过产品结构补充和迭代升级应对国补退坡，同时综合考虑市场竞 争情况进行定价，避免恶性价格竞争，保障利润空间。 目前量贡献多于价贡献，公司采取一定程度的自补措施，但受到严格利 润考核限制，并通过调整费用结构进行管理，对全年利润指引影响不大。 公司预计 2026 年国家补贴政策将持续，但金额和范围可能变化，公司 将根据最悲观的行业预期制定目标，保持双位数增长目标不变。 10 月份出口方面，新兴市场表现优于发达国家市场。四季度盈利能力预 计保持稳定增长，并按照整体业绩指引进行拆解。 面对宏观经济不确定性，海尔智家将抓住确定性的增长机会，提升效率 和市场份额，改善边际利润，对 2026 年业绩规划充满信心。 Q&A 海尔智家在 2025 年第三季度的业绩表现如何？ 2025 年第三季度，尽管整个行业呈现双位数下降趋势，但海尔智家实现了双 位 ...

当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese automakers are facing significant challenges due to U.S. tariffs, leading to a collective profit decline of 1.5 trillion yen (approximately 68.78 billion RMB) in the first half of 2025, marking a 27.2% year-on-year decrease [6][7]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The North American market has severely impacted Mazda and Subaru, with Mazda's U.S. sales accounting for about 30% of its global sales, resulting in a profit drop of approximately 97.1 billion yen (about 4.45 billion RMB) due to tariffs [6]. - Subaru, with nearly 80% of its sales in the U.S., faced a tariff impact of 154.4 billion yen (around 7.08 billion RMB), nearly offsetting its profits from vehicle sales [6][7]. Group 2: Domestic Market Saturation - Japan's domestic car market is saturated, with a new car sales forecast of approximately 4.42 million units in 2024, a decline of about 7.5% from 2023 [8]. - The younger generation in Japan shows a declining interest in car ownership, with 32% citing "sufficient family cars" and 28% concerned about high car prices [8]. Group 3: Global Market Challenges - Japanese automakers have historically relied on overseas markets, which account for nearly 80% of their sales, but are now facing increased competition and market share losses, particularly in China and Southeast Asia [8][9]. - From 2021 to 2024, Japanese automakers lost significant market share in Southeast Asia, with declines of 5% in Malaysia, 6% in Indonesia, and 12% in Thailand [9][12]. Group 4: Declining Sales in China - Japanese automakers have seen a decline in sales in China, with Toyota's sales down 1.7% to 1.908 million units, Honda's down 10.1% to 1.234 million units, and Nissan's down 16.1% to 794,000 units in 2023 [9]. - The market share of Japanese brands in China dropped from 20.6% in 2021 to 11.2% in 2024, largely due to the rise of domestic electric vehicle brands [9][12]. Group 5: Shift in Consumer Preferences - The younger generation in Southeast Asia is increasingly favoring electric vehicles and brands that offer better value and technology, leading to a shift away from traditional Japanese automakers [12][17]. - Japanese automakers are struggling to adapt to the electric vehicle trend, with their market share in the rapidly growing EV segment remaining below 30% in Southeast Asia [16][17]. Group 6: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Despite challenges, Toyota remains the world's most profitable automaker, with a profit of 31.2579 billion USD (approximately 224.5 billion RMB) in 2025, significantly outperforming competitors [17][21]. - The overall performance of Japanese brands in other sectors, such as convenience stores and cosmetics, is declining, indicating a broader struggle beyond the automotive industry [18][21].

2025 年 11 月 22 日 尔机器人与 INDEMIND i 合作,比依股份定增获批 -《2025/11/17-2025/11/21》家电周报 本期投资提示: 相关研究 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 本周家电板块跑赢沪深 300 指数。本周申万家用电器板块指数下跌 2.3%，同期沪深 ● 300 指数下跌 3.8%，家电板块指数跑赢沪深 300。重点公司方面，奥普科技（6.7%)、 浙江美大 (2.7%)、苏泊尔 (1.5%) 领涨;九阳股份 (-15.6%)、倍轻松 (-9.3%)、比 依股份（-9.2%）领跌。 行业动态：1）海尔机器人与 INDEMIND 达成战略合作。11 月 19 日，海尔机器人与 ● 北京盈迪曼德科技有限公司（INDEMIND）在北京正式签署战略合作协议，共同推动 具身机器人在家庭场景的落地与应用。在具体合作上，INDEMIND 将作为海尔 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3850 points, while market volume saw a slight increase [2][5] - The performance of various sectors showed that home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking sectors performed relatively well, while metal materials and mining, power and new energy equipment, and electronics sectors led the decline [2][5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.02%, the SSE 50 Index declined by 1.74%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index dropped by 3.72%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [2][8] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking, while the lagging sectors were metal materials and mining (-5.11%), power and new energy equipment (-4.78%), and electronics (-4.66%) [8] - Concept stocks such as China Shipbuilding System (+3.51%), aquatic products (+0.65%), Xiaohongshu platform (+0.47%), and Pinduoduo partners (+0.42%) showed gains, while lithium mining and related concepts faced declines [8] Market Drivers - Key market drivers included the unexpected rise in U.S. unemployment rates despite job growth, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8] - Concerns about high asset prices and AI bubble risks contributed to a decline in U.S. stocks, which in turn affected market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a short-term market correction may occur due to rapid price increases, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of a "slow bull" market trend [14] - In the medium term, the market's strength may depend on macroeconomic policies and technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, which are seen as key areas for creating new demand [15] - Long-term fundamentals, including stabilization in the real estate market and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support continued growth in the A-share market [15]

Core Viewpoint - Hisense Home Appliances has engaged in multiple financial product agreements with Yongcheng Insurance Asset Management, totaling RMB 1.738 billion, utilizing idle funds from the group [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of November 21, 2025, Hisense Home Appliances' stock closed at 26.04 yuan, down 0.8% from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 36.062 billion yuan [1] - The stock opened at 26.0 yuan, reached a high of 26.5 yuan, and a low of 25.99 yuan, with a trading volume of 2.61 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.09% [1] Group 2: Financial Product Agreements - The company entered into financial product agreements from March 6 to November 21, 2025, with a total subscription amount of RMB 1,738,000,000 [1] - The subscribing parties include the company and its subsidiaries, with the funds sourced from the group's own idle funds [1] - The financial products are classified as fixed-income types, with a risk rating of low to medium-low, and the expected annual yield is benchmarked against the central bank's one-year deposit rate [1]

Core Insights - The nature of US-China competition has changed, with the US now acknowledging China as a competitor, marking a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics [3][4] - The concept of a "G2" world, where the US and China are the two dominant powers, is gaining traction, as highlighted by President Trump's remarks [4] - The long-term resilience of the Chinese economy is emphasized, with a focus on its manufacturing sector's growth and innovation capabilities [5][6] Group 1: US-China Relations - The US has imposed tariffs on over a hundred countries, but China has effectively countered these actions, leading to a balance of power [3] - The perception of China as an unstoppable force is growing among the American intellectual elite, indicating a potential shift towards coexistence [4] - The historical context of China's economic growth is highlighted, with projections showing its share of global manufacturing increasing from 5% in 2000 to 45% by 2030 [5] Group 2: Economic Dynamics - Despite macroeconomic challenges such as low consumption and a sluggish real estate market, China continues to see technological innovations in sectors like AI and electric vehicles [5] - The US dollar remains a powerful tool for the US, and any sanctions involving the dollar would significantly impact China [5] - The unexpected strength of the global economy, despite rising tariffs, suggests that regions outside the US are becoming more trade-oriented [7] Group 3: Innovation and Perception - The belief that Chinese individuals lack innovation is challenged, with evidence suggesting that local talent is increasingly driving innovation [6] - The discussion highlights the contrasting views of stability and harmony in Chinese society versus the Western emphasis on freedom and democracy [5][6] - The response of various Asian countries to US policies indicates a lack of unified retaliation, with smaller nations seeking to enhance trade relationships independently [7]

12月4日至6日，2025-2026 赛季长虹・国际雪联单板及自由式滑雪大跳台世界杯将在北京首钢园"雪飞天"燃情开赛，赛事赞助商也随赛事官宣正式亮相，其 中，长虹成为赛事冠名赞助商。 作为国际A类赛事，滑雪大跳台世界杯不仅是全球顶尖滑雪运动员的荣耀竞技场，更是2026年米兰冬奥会资格积分赛最为关键的赛事。 此外，国际雪联2025-2026赛季跳台滑雪世界杯也于今日在曾举办过冬奥会的挪威利勒哈默尔首站起跳。长虹等企业对一系列顶级冰雪赛事的深度参与，会 为品牌与赛事的融合创新提供鲜活样本，助力中国冰雪经济与体育产业协同发展。 免责声明：此文内容为本网站刊发或转载企业宣传资讯，仅代表作者个人观点，与本网无关。文章不构成投资建议，仅供读者参考，并请自行核实相关内 容。 根据目前的报名情况，本次赛事世界滑雪名将云集，北京冬奥会冠军苏翊鸣、亚冬会单板滑雪男子大跳台冠军杨文龙、2024-2025赛季国际雪联自由式滑雪 世界杯克拉根福站女子大跳台冠军刘梦婷等中国名将，将与来自奥地利的冬奥会单板滑雪大跳台项目双冠王安娜·加塞尔，挪威单板滑雪运动员马库斯·克莱 韦兰等全球20余个国家和地区的百余名顶尖选手展开巅峰对决。 ...

Group 1 - Ant Group officially launched its full-modal AI assistant "Lingguang," which can generate interactive applications in 30 seconds based on natural language descriptions, allowing users to create personalized tools with zero barriers [1] - McDonald's 2025 Christmas advertisement was produced entirely with AI assistance, reducing the traditional advertisement production cycle by 70% [1] Group 2 - There is a growing sentiment of helplessness in various industries as AI technology evolves rapidly, challenging the belief that creativity is a uniquely human trait [4] - AI is increasingly involved in tasks such as coding, planning, video editing, and management decision-making, leading to concerns about human roles being optimized to mere components in a system [6] Group 3 - Despite advancements in management tools, employees report feeling more exhausted, indicating a disconnect between technological efficiency and actual work satisfaction [9] - The traditional "Newtonian" management approach, which views organizations as machines, is failing in the current unpredictable environment dominated by AI and the internet [11] Group 4 - Haier's founder, Zhang Ruimin, and management expert Peter Senge are influenced by the book "Leadership and the New Science," which discusses the concept of "strange attractors" in chaotic systems [8][15] - Haier has transformed its organizational structure from a hierarchical model to thousands of small, independent units focused on user experience, allowing for adaptability in a chaotic market [19] Group 5 - The new edition of "Leadership and the New Science" serves as a survival guide in a turbulent world, emphasizing the need for organizations to embrace chaos rather than control [21][22] - The author suggests creating "Islands of Sanity" within organizations to foster genuine human connections and counteract the prevailing bureaucratic culture [26] Group 6 - The book advocates for a shift from a control-oriented mindset to one that embraces uncertainty, highlighting the importance of relationships and human connections in navigating the AI-dominated landscape [34][35]