Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.2% to 25,742.24 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.89%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index rising by 0.27% [1][9]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with SMIC (中芯国际) rising over 7% to a price of 69.800 [3][12]. - Gold stocks experienced a broad increase, with Lingbao Gold (灵宝黄金) rising over 6% as gold prices surpassed $4,380, setting a new historical high [3][15]. - The new consumption concept stocks mostly rose, with Mixue Group (蜜雪集团) increasing by over 9% to 432.200 [6][16]. New Listings - Four new stocks were listed today: Impression Dahongpao, Huasheng Biotechnology, Mingji Hospital, and Nanhua Futures, all of which faced significant declines, with Mingji Hospital dropping over 42% and Impression Dahongpao down by 25% [7][17]. Investment Insights - The entry of new shareholders into Anjieli Meiwai, including state-backed funds, indicates recognition of the company's technological strength in packaging substrates, which is a focus area for domestic innovation [2][11]. - Goldman Sachs has identified "going long on gold" as a core high-conviction trading strategy, driven by central bank purchases and cyclical support from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][14]. Economic Context - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption were highlighted, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the importance of a strong domestic market [6][16].

新消费概念股普遍活跃，截至发稿，蜜雪集团(02097)涨7.29%，报423.8港元；老铺黄金(06181)涨 5.02%，报691港元；锅圈(02517)涨5.09%，报3.51港元；泡泡玛特(09992)涨3.89%，报200.4港元；布鲁 可(00325)涨2.96%，报71.3港元；沪上阿姨(02589)涨2.78%，报94.15港元。 东兴证券指出，2025年新消费投资情绪经历了从狂热到谨慎的过程。2026年政策的持续加码有望提振消 费信心，对于新消费领域的投资将从纯粹的短期叙事回归商业模式与盈利壁垒，投资者会倾向寻找那些 真正能够构建稳固的商业模式，盈利模式可持续的公司。该行认为新消费行业会向三个趋势和两个维度 的方向发展。三个趋势是健康化、新实用主义和情绪消费，两个维度是智能化和消费出海，建议积极关 注相关方向的投资机会。 消息面上，近期消费有关政策频出。中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经济工作的重点任务，其中第一项 重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12月15日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之 举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用 ...

东兴证券指出，2025年新消费投资情绪经历了从狂热到谨慎的过程。2026年政策的持续加码有望提振消 费信心，对于新消费领域的投资将从纯粹的短期叙事回归商业模式与盈利壁垒，投资者会倾向寻找那些 真正能够构建稳固的商业模式，盈利模式可持续的公司。该行认为新消费行业会向三个趋势和两个维度 的方向发展。三个趋势是健康化、新实用主义和情绪消费，两个维度是智能化和消费出海，建议积极关 注相关方向的投资机会。 智通财经APP获悉，新消费概念股普遍活跃，截至发稿，蜜雪集团(02097)涨7.29%，报423.8港元；老铺 黄金(06181)涨5.02%，报691港元；锅圈(02517)涨5.09%，报3.51港元；泡泡玛特(09992)涨3.89%，报 200.4港元；布鲁可(00325)涨2.96%，报71.3港元；沪上阿姨(02589)涨2.78%，报94.15港元。 消息面上，近期消费有关政策频出。中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经济工作的重点任务，其中第一项 重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12月15日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之 举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发 ...

每经AI快讯，12月22日，港股新消费概念股集体走高，蜜雪集团、老铺黄金、布鲁可涨超4%，泡泡玛 特涨近4%，古茗、卫龙美味涨近3%。 ...

Group 1: Impact of Hong Kong IPOs on Secondary Market - The Hong Kong IPO market has significantly rebounded this year, with approximately 100 companies raising over 250 billion HKD, and the expected IPO financing center for 2026 is around 330 billion HKD [1] - There is a positive correlation between IPO financing in the primary market and the performance of the Hang Seng Index, suggesting a mutual causation [2] - A weak US dollar and low Hibor rates are common factors driving the simultaneous strength of both IPO and secondary markets, as investors tend to reduce US asset allocations and increase global market allocations, with Hong Kong stocks being a potential option [3] Group 2: Performance of Secondary Market Post-IPO - Large IPOs do not have a significant overall impact on the secondary market, as the Hang Seng Index shows no clear pattern in the 20 trading days prior to large IPOs, while the probability of the index strengthening in the 20 trading days following a large IPO is 56%, with a median increase of 4% [4] - The probability of large IPOs being successful is high, with positive median absolute and excess returns from listing to the time of inclusion [5] Group 3: New Consumption Policies - Recent policies from the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance aim to promote new consumption formats, with pilot programs launched in 50 cities, emphasizing the need for robust implementation plans and project management [6] - The younger generations, particularly Y and Z, are becoming the main consumer force, with a focus on personalized and emotional consumption, leading to the rise of industries like the "guzi economy" [6] - The new consumption sector is expected to evolve towards three trends (health, new pragmatism, and emotional consumption) and two dimensions (intelligent and overseas consumption), suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [6]

今年下半年以来，港股新消费板块经历深度调整。 以"新消费三姐妹"泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为例，截至12月18日收盘，三只个股较今年股价最高 点分别下跌43%、39%、35%。受访专家表示，以"新消费三姐妹"为代表的新消费板块回调，本质上是 对前期过高估值的修正，市场正对新消费商业模式可持续性进行深度审视。 "新消费三姐妹"正围绕本土IP出海、强化全球供应链管理、加快产品创新等方式，擘画"第二增长曲 线"。受访专家认为，国际消费巨头的经验表明，新消费企业要做好品牌文化沉淀以及全球化与本地化 的平衡，唯有将短期热度转化为长期用户忠诚度，方能在周期波动中立于不败。 高估值后的回调 今年上半年，港股"新消费三姐妹"股价涨幅巨大，估值一度远超传统消费巨头和国际同行。万得数据显 示，老铺黄金动态市盈率一度超过142倍，泡泡玛特一度达到113倍，同期迪士尼动态市盈率在20—40倍 左右，LVMH动态市盈率在20倍左右。 较高的估值也推动持仓资金集中离场，导致板块进入调整期。记者查看多家重仓港股的基金持仓发现， 它们均在三季度大幅削减了新消费龙头股的仓位。 数字经济智库高级研究员翁一在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，"新消费 ...

近三个月港股调整的因素主要有三。1）以中美稀土关系为标志开启的中美关系博弈压制市场风险偏 好。2）海外流动性预期反复：市场对美联储降息的节奏预期经历了从乐观到审慎的反复调整，引发美 元指数的阶段性强势。3）风格切换与"拥挤度"调整：三季度以AI为首的科技板块行情高度集中，进入 四季度，资金在阶段性获利了结与风险规避的需求驱动下，向红利等高确定性板块转移，此外海内外市 场重新审视AI等科技领域资本开支的可持续性与回报率进一步加剧这一过程。 从大周期来看，目前港股处于牛市中段，其中流动性周期已经从2023年中随海外七大央行开启降息周期 后连续上行。估值水平在港股连续修复后来到中上分位。盈利周期目前刚刚从底部回升，但实体经济的 复苏动能仍显温和，盈利修复斜率较为平缓。 多重因素促成港股中期交易窗口打开。1）港股本轮经历的市场调整增厚了安全边际，为新一轮反弹预 留了足够的空间；2）南向资金依然保持净流入态势，或随着海外流动性预期重新恢复，后续出现内外 流动性共振；3）近期中国宏观基本面有所改善，通胀数据继续回升，出口边际再度改善。此前港股主 要的估值修复集中于景气板块，后续或随宏观基本面改善逐步扩散；4）美国新版《国 ...

近期，知名经济学家洪灝在与瑞士宝盛的本年度收官对话中，展望了2026年的美股、A股市场，并重点剖析了AI、大宗商品及人民币等核心议题。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下: 1、现在说（美国AI）泡沫要破，可能还为时过早。但必须承认估值已经很贵了。那么历史上达到如此估值的高度次数屈指可数。 以及一般来说，这个估值水平， 美股未来7到10年的平均回报率往往只有个位数。 2、 从下半年开始，我们就建议客户把美股获利的部分转向非美市场。主要原因是 美股相对于其他市场的表现已经达到历史高位，再期待它持续跑赢，可 能不太现实。 3、我 相信如果投AI的话，我们会继续投现在已经崭露头角的公司，以及一些大型的从以前的科技、互联网公司转型成AI公司的领头羊。 以下是投资作业本课代表（微信ID：touzizuoyeben）整理的精华内容，分享给大家： 2026年只要经济不太差，A股值得期待 主持人：年初至今，上证和沪深300指数以及港股恒生指数涨了很多，在全球市场算是领先的。不过从十月开始，股指上升势头有所减弱，板块之间开始 轮动，比如科技类的成长股承压明显，反而价值股和周期股更受资金青睐。 4、如果AI故事继续，经济周期位置不变 ...

航空股延续涨势，首都机场涨超7%。上海浦东、虹桥机场及北京首都机场陆续启动新一轮免税招标， 关键变化是引入外资参与者。国泰海通证券发布研报称，上海机场新一轮免税合同模式出现调整，按照 提成比例中值16%静态测算，新旧模式机场免税收入基本持平；若实际综合提成比例高于中值，新合同 将提升机场免税收入。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 √ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00694 | 北京首都机场股1 | 2.860 | 7.12% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 5.180 | 4.65% | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 6.980 | 3.71% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 5.750 | 3.23% | | 00293 | 国泰航空 | 11.880 0.42% | | 锂电池股跌幅居前，宁德时代跌超3%。由于储能和商用车需求超预期爆发，摩根大通将2030年全球锂 需求预测上调至350万吨（共识上限）。分析师认为，中期4-7%的供需缺口将迫使碳酸锂价格在明年底 冲向18000美元，较现货价高出约33%。因此该行全面看多，直言锂价已进入 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent actions of some funds in response to market volatility, indicating that certain fund managers are reducing positions to secure year-to-date gains while others are adjusting their portfolios for the upcoming year-end market trends [1][2] - Many fund managers maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, suggesting that the recent adjustments in high valuations are healthy and may create new opportunities for future operations [1][7] - Specific examples include the performance of the Guangfa Xinyi fund, which has shown a relatively stable net value despite market fluctuations, and the strategies employed by fund managers to manage their portfolios effectively [3][4] Group 2 - Flexible allocation funds are noted for their ability to adjust stock holdings more freely compared to traditional equity funds, allowing them to mitigate risks during market downturns and capitalize on opportunities during uptrends [5][6] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of market judgment and position control, suggesting that effective management of these flexible funds requires a higher level of skill and adaptability [6][7] - Investment directions highlighted include sectors such as computing infrastructure, AI-driven applications, and emerging consumer companies, which are expected to maintain growth potential despite current market conditions [8][9]