高基数及长假效应影响出口回落，但仍具韧性。10月份我国出口同比增速明显回落，继今年2月后首次转负，主要的影响可能在于去年同期基数较高，以 及今年中秋国庆长假连在一起，接近两周的假期对于出口形成较大影响。10月份，我国出口东盟同比增速降至10.96%，从出口东盟的绝对金额来看，小 幅回落3.7亿美元，继续稳居中国第一大贸易伙伴地位。对欧盟出口同比增速明显回落，由9月的14.18%降至0.92%，从出口的季节性来看，回落程度要高 于往年，一定程度上或与10月份中欧贸易摩擦有所升级有关。对美国出口增速小幅回升至-25.17%，较9月份增速回升1.86个百分点。尽管10月底中美吉隆 坡经贸磋商达成一致取消了该关税的加征，月初特朗普加征关税言论或还是一定程度上促进了货物阶段性的抢运。后续随着中美元首会晤释放中美经贸关 系缓和的积极信号，吉隆坡经贸磋商成果正式公布，外需将进一步回暖。同时，美联储重启降息，或推动全球进入降息周期，宽松的流动性环境也将带动 需求温和修复。因此我国出口韧性仍强。 薛鹤翔、陈梦赟（薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） + 摘要 在当前新旧动能转换仍不顺畅的背景下，积极的财政 ...

Group 1 - The total value of China's goods trade import and export reached 37.31 trillion yuan in the first ten months of this year, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive months since February [1] - In October, China's goods trade imports amounted to 1.53 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 1.4%, continuing a five-month growth trend [1] Group 2 - Imports from Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia increased by 1%, 5.2%, and 23.7% respectively this year [2] - Mechanical and electrical products are the mainstay of China's exports, accounting for over 60% of total exports, contributing 5.2 percentage points to overall export growth in the first ten months [3] Group 3 - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner in the first ten months, with growth in imports and exports from private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises [4] - The favorable market opportunities, good business environment, and rich innovation scenarios in China continue to attract foreign investment, with 81,000 foreign-invested enterprises engaged in import and export activities, an increase of 1.3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports show resilience despite a slowdown in growth due to external demand weakening, with a total import and export value of 37.31 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 3.6% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, exports grew by 6.2%, while imports remained stable compared to the previous year [1] - The export growth rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, with October showing a decline in exports of 0.8% in yuan terms and 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February [1] - The decline in October exports was influenced by a high base from the previous year, reduced working days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, and ongoing high tariffs from the U.S. impacting global trade [2] Group 2: External Factors - The U.S. tariffs have led to a significant drop in exports to the U.S., with a year-on-year decrease of 25.2% in October, contributing to a 3.8 percentage point drop in overall export growth [2] - Other regions also experienced a decline in export growth, with exports to the EU, Japan, ASEAN, and Belt and Road countries showing varying decreases in growth rates compared to the previous month [3] Group 3: Resilience in Exports - Despite external challenges, China's exports remain resilient, supported by diversification in trade and a surge in AI investments and domestic manufacturing upgrades, particularly in chip and automotive exports [4] - In the first ten months, trade with ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 4.9%, respectively, while trade with the U.S. decreased by 15.9% [4] Group 4: Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (24.7%) and automobiles (14.3%), while labor-intensive products saw a decline [5] - In October, chip exports grew by 26.9% and automobile exports by 34.0%, indicating strong performance in these sectors [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to rebound to around 2.0% in November, but overall export momentum is anticipated to weaken in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three quarters [6] - Policies to stabilize foreign trade are expected to support enterprises in shifting exports to domestic sales and expanding export credit insurance coverage [6] - The Shanghai export container freight index rose by 10.5% in late October, indicating stable demand in European shipping routes and positive market conditions for North American routes [6]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade shows resilience amid challenges, with a total import and export value of 37.31 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [1] - High-tech product exports have significantly increased, with integrated circuit exports reaching 1.16 trillion yuan, up 24.7%, and automobile exports at 798.39 billion yuan, up 14.3% [1][6] Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 6.18 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.1%, accounting for 16.6% of total foreign trade [2] - Trade with the EU reached 4.88 trillion yuan, growing by 4.9%, while trade with the US decreased by 15.9% to 3.38 trillion yuan [2] Trade Structure and Optimization - Private enterprises play a crucial role in foreign trade, with their import and export value at 21.28 trillion yuan, a growth of 7.2%, making up 57% of total foreign trade [5] - The import of electromechanical products was 6.05 trillion yuan, up 5.5%, while exports reached 13.43 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% [6] Market Diversification Strategy - China's market diversification strategy has proven effective, focusing on enhancing trade with developed economies while expanding into emerging markets [4] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version was signed, covering nine areas including digital economy and green economy, expected to further boost trade [4][5] Government Initiatives - The government emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to create a favorable foreign trade environment, enhancing competitiveness through innovation [7] - Recent initiatives like the "Shared Big Market · Export China" series aim to expand imports and promote balanced trade development [8]

Export Data - From January to October 2025, China's goods trade exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 0.9%, resulting in a trade surplus of $964.82 billion[1] - In October 2025, exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant decline of 9.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, while imports grew by 1.0%, down 6.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus for October 2025 was $90.07 billion[1] Trade Partners - In October 2025, exports to the United States decreased by 25.2%, while imports fell by 22.8%, with total trade amounting to $45.08 billion, accounting for 8.7% of total trade[2] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 11.0% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 4.6%, with total trade reaching $85.75 billion, representing 16.5% of total trade[2] - Exports to the European Union rose by 0.9%, while imports increased by 4.0%, with total trade amounting to $66.03 billion, accounting for 12.7% of total trade[2] Product Performance - From January to October 2025, integrated circuits, general machinery, and ship exports grew by 23.7%, 20.5%, and 25.0% year-on-year, respectively[3] - High-tech product imports remained active, with semiconductor devices, integrated circuits, and automatic data processing equipment showing year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 9.0%, and 19.5% respectively[3] - Light industrial products, such as lamps, toys, and bags, saw export declines exceeding 10% year-on-year[3]

Core Insights - In the first ten months, China's export of electromechanical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7%, accounting for 60.7% of total exports [1] - Exports of labor-intensive products amounted to 3.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3%, representing 15.3% of total exports [1] - Agricultural product exports totaled 598.98 billion yuan, showing a growth of 2% [1] Electromechanical Products - Exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components were 1.19 trillion yuan, down by 0.7% [1] - Integrated circuit exports reached 1.16 trillion yuan, increasing by 24.7% [1] - Automobile exports were valued at 798.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [1] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of clothing and accessories amounted to 905 billion yuan, declining by 3% [1] - Textile exports were 844.19 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.8% [1] - Exports of plastic products totaled 614.55 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% [1]

Core Insights - China's export of electromechanical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan in the first ten months, marking an 8.7% increase and accounting for 60.7% of total exports [1] Electromechanical Products - Exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components totaled 1.19 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 0.7% [1] - Integrated circuits exports were valued at 1.16 trillion yuan, with a significant growth of 24.7% [1] - Automobile exports amounted to 798.39 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [1] Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of labor-intensive products reached 3.38 trillion yuan, down by 3%, representing 15.3% of total exports [1] - Clothing and apparel exports were 905 billion yuan, decreasing by 3% [1] - Textile exports were valued at 844.19 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.8% [1] - Plastic products exports totaled 614.55 billion yuan, showing a marginal decline of 0.1% [1] Agricultural Products - Exports of agricultural products reached 598.98 billion yuan, with a growth of 2% [1]

Core Points - Liaoning's exports to South Korea increased by 14.4% in the first three quarters of the year, reaching 333.5 billion RMB, contributing to 8.9% of the province's total foreign trade value [1] - The main products exported include electromechanical products, which accounted for 51.9% of total exports to South Korea, with a significant growth of 39.8% [2] - High-tech product exports also saw a rise, with a 25.6% share of total exports, particularly in semiconductor and biomedicine sectors [2] - The export of agricultural products, particularly mixed clams, has increased significantly, with a total export value of 25.4 billion RMB, marking a 2.9% growth [2] - Private enterprises in Liaoning have been actively expanding into the South Korean market, with imports and exports totaling 249.1 billion RMB, a growth of 6.4% [3] - State-owned enterprises also reported growth in trade with South Korea, with a total of 93.9 billion RMB, reflecting a 10.9% increase [4]

Core Insights - The signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade protocol during the 47th ASEAN Summit enhances the cooperation between the Yangtze River Delta and ASEAN markets, solidifying the region's role in international trade [1] Trade Dynamics - China has maintained its position as ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, while ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for 5 years [1] - By 2024, bilateral trade between China and five ASEAN countries (Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore) is expected to exceed 100 billion USD, with trade with Vietnam and Malaysia surpassing 200 billion USD [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, ASEAN remained the largest trading partner for the Yangtze River Delta, with import and export volume reaching 2.01 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% [1] Regional Contributions - Shanghai's imports and exports with ASEAN reached 474.82 billion CNY in the first three quarters of this year, growing by 12.5%, significantly higher than the city's overall import and export growth of 5.4% [2] - Zhejiang's exports to ASEAN amounted to 188.52 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7%, highlighting the region's potential in the ASEAN market [3] - Jiangsu's trade with ASEAN reached 791.73 billion CNY, a 22.8% increase, with significant growth in consumer goods and electronic products [4] - Anhui's trade with ASEAN totaled 100.81 billion CNY, growing by 39.8%, with a remarkable 71.0% increase in imports and exports from Hefei [4] Product Categories - In Shanghai, mechanical and electrical products accounted for 61.5% of exports to ASEAN, with significant growth in integrated circuits and mobile phones [2] - Zhejiang's "New Three Samples" (newly emerging products), auto parts, and ships showed impressive growth rates of 49.5%, 28.0%, and 28.6% respectively [3] - Jiangsu saw explosive growth in consumer goods such as cosmetics and daily necessities, alongside strong performance in electronic consumer products [4] Investment and Services - In the first three quarters, Zhejiang issued 488,000 certificates of origin under the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, valued at 142.92 billion CNY, benefiting enterprises by approximately 12.8 billion CNY [3] - Jiangsu's investment in ASEAN countries reached 1.67 million USD, accounting for 25% of the city's total foreign investment [4] - Nanjing's service outsourcing cooperation with ASEAN countries reached 860 million USD in the first half of this year, continuing to grow by 22% [4]

Core Insights - Xi'an High-tech Zone plays a crucial role in China's (Shaanxi) Free Trade Pilot Zone, leading high-quality development through an open economy [1] - In the first three quarters of this year, the total import and export value reached 250.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, contributing over 80% to the city's foreign trade growth [1] - The zone's export performance is particularly strong, with exports reaching 168.78 billion yuan, up 27.9% year-on-year, while imports grew by 3.2% to 81.75 billion yuan, resulting in a trade surplus of 87.03 billion yuan [1] Trade Performance - General trade increased by 46.3%, becoming the main driving force for foreign trade growth, indicating enhanced competitive strength of local industries [1] - Processing trade grew by 9%, and bonded logistics increased by 4.8%, showcasing the resilience of diverse trade methods [1] - The top 30 enterprises in the zone accounted for over 93% of the total import and export value, with a total of 234.83 billion yuan, reflecting significant driving effects [1] Export Dynamics - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year export increase of 29.2%, while automotive exports surged by 73.7%, marking a new growth point in foreign trade [2] - High-tech product exports rose by 22.1%, demonstrating the competitive edge of technology-intensive products [2] - Cross-border e-commerce emerged as a new growth engine, with exports reaching 220 million yuan, a 49.2% increase, significantly outpacing overall trade growth [2] Future Strategies - The Xi'an High-tech Zone plans to enhance foreign trade quality by focusing on three main areas: implementing targeted policies for enterprises, expanding market reach through domestic and international exhibitions, and optimizing services for private enterprises [2]