2025 年 12 月 23 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 218 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 CRO 需求回暖，实验猴供给紧张涨价--行业动态研究 年末债市还有哪些好策略？--债券研究周报 长安深蓝与北汽蓝谷极狐获首批 L3 级准入许可，长城欧拉 5 上市 12 万版本搭载激光雷达--行业周报 液氯、碳酸锂价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 猪价承压，关注去化进程--行业周报 2026 年房地产展望--宏观深度研究 债市回暖，市场机构怎么看？--债券研究周报 中证 A500ETF 资金大幅净流入--策略周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、CRO 需求回暖，实验猴供给紧张涨价--行业动态研究 分析师：曹泽运 S0350525110001 分析师：林羽茜 S0350524070002 投资要点: 本周（指 2025 年 12 月 15 日至 19 日，下同）本周沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，医药生物下跌 0.14%，处于 31 个 一级子行业第 22 位，医 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global risk appetite is weak, with significant asset performance divergence observed. Developed markets show gains while emerging markets decline, with the UK FTSE 100 and Vietnam index leading in gains. Precious metals continue to perform strongly, with COMEX silver increasing by 9.4% in the week and over 120% year-to-date [3][4] - The correlation between A-shares and REITs has decreased, while the positive correlation between A-shares and Indian stocks has also marginally declined. The risk premium of the CSI 300 relative to 10Y Chinese government bonds has decreased, while the risk premium of the S&P 500 relative to 10Y US Treasuries has increased [3] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index remained relatively flat, with developed markets outperforming emerging and Asian markets. The MSCI emerging and Asian indices fell by 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw slight increases, while the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 declined [4] - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Wind All A index down by 0.2%. The Korean market also saw significant pullbacks, with the KOSPI down by 3.5% and KOSDAQ down by 2.4%. Conversely, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index rebounded by 3.5% after previous adjustments [4] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market shows a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening. AAA-rated bond yields have generally decreased, while credit spreads have increased [5] - The US bond market also exhibits a "bull steepening" characteristic, with a similar downward shift in the yield curve. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 is currently at 22.1%, with anticipated cuts moved forward to March and July [5] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity performance shows divergence between domestic and international markets, with the dollar index rising by 0.3%. The CRB commodity index fell by 1.1%, while the South China index increased by 0.1%. Eight out of thirteen major commodity futures recorded gains, with COMEX silver leading [5] - The US natural gas price rose by 33% from $3.36 to $4.48 per mmbtu, while European gas prices fell by 12%. The average gasoline crack spread in Singapore increased by 111% year-on-year [9][10] Group 5: Automotive Industry Developments - The National Market Supervision Administration has proposed a compliance guideline for automotive pricing, aiming to regulate pricing behaviors in the industry. This guideline is expected to mitigate price wars and improve profit margins for automakers and dealers [14][15] - The guideline emphasizes fair pricing strategies based on production costs and market demand, requiring clear rebate policies and respect for dealer pricing autonomy. This is anticipated to enhance the pricing ecosystem within the automotive supply chain [14][15]

| 市场 | 什CK电 | 名称 | 示日涨幅 | 当日价格 | 换手率 | 金额 | 净买入 # | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 派 | 000981 | 山子高松 | +9.94% | 3.65 | 7.13% | 24.36亿 | 6.88亿 | | 流 | 000572 | 世界印度 | +9.99% | 9.36 | 17.18% | 25.77亿 | 3.02(Z | | 深 | 300189 | 神农种业 | +20.03% | 7.13 | 45.52% | 27.20亿 | 2.60 Z | | 版 | 300086 | 康之药业 | +19.96% | 13.22 | 24.75% | 13.52亿 | 2.52亿 | | ਹੈਰ | 601212 | 白银有色 | +10.04% | 5.70 | 4.09% | 16.91亿 | 2.45 Z | | 淡 | 300086 | 康芝药业 图 | +19.96% | 13.22 | 24.75% | 13.52亿 | 2.39 Z | | য় | 688668 ...

（1）本周沪深300指数跌幅0.28%，其中汽车板块涨幅0.13%，涨跌幅位居A股一级行业第19位。（2） 本周乘用车Ⅱ指数跌幅1.64%，北汽蓝谷、小鹏汽车-W领涨。（3）本周商用车指数跌幅0.43%，曙光股 份、福田汽车领涨。（4）本周汽车零部件Ⅱ指数涨幅1.12%，浙江世宝、豪恩汽电领涨。其中电控系 统涨跌幅6.86%，德赛西威、伯特利领涨；电机涨跌幅-2.00%，恒帅股份、云意电气领涨；减速机/齿轮 类涨跌幅-2.00%，易实精密、双环传动领涨；轴承涨跌幅-2.20%，冠盛股份领涨；轻量化&结构件涨跌 幅-1.46%，华达科技、天龙股份领涨；直线传动部件涨跌幅-2.98%，贝斯特跌幅较小；传感器涨跌幅 0.75%，华培动力、日盈电子领涨；Tier1涨跌幅0.64%，均胜电子、神通科技领涨。 以下为研究报告摘要： 行业重点新闻 （1）我国首批L3级自动驾驶车型获准入许可：深蓝SL03、极狐阿尔法S将在北京重庆试点；（2）中国 长安新能源汽车年销量破百万，2030年剑指500万辆产销目标；（3）岚图汽车和宁德时代签署十年深化 合作协议，优先搭载更领先的电池技术；（4）"全球首款豪华城市SUV"：奔驰VLE ...

本报讯 在长兴地通汽车零部件二期车间内，自动化生产线全速运行，机器人与工人紧密协作，一道道 工序无缝衔接。下线的车身产品仅需几分钟车程，便可直达两公里外的吉利整车工厂，实现了从零部件 到整车的"无缝对接"。据悉，企业今年产值可达2.6亿元。 记者 许旭 陈虹 （来源：湖州日报） 转自：湖州日报 地通汽车的快速发展，是长兴持续放大"一企带一链、一链成一片"集群倍增效应的典型。通过精准服务 并支持链主型企业和核心供应商，长兴成功吸引了更多上下游企业集聚，形成了愈发紧密、高效的本地 化供应链生态。 产业集群发展为区域经济发展注入强劲动能。市委九届九次全体（扩大）会议召开后，长兴县迅速掀起 传达学习贯彻市委全会精神热潮，围绕全会提出的"十五五"时期实施"三大战略"、湖州经济社会发展主 要目标、十方面重点任务等内容，紧密结合当地经济社会发展实际，对标相关内容，深入谋好长兴"十 五五"时期的目标、定位、战略和重点，奋力开创高质量发展新局面。 近年来，该县认真贯彻落实党中央和省、市决策部署，坚持以创新为核心引擎，以"链主"引领为抓手， 以人才集聚为支撑，推动新兴产业从"破局"到集群崛起，助力传统产业加速提质升级，在高质量发 ...

汽车 汽车 2025 年 12 月 21 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 徐剑峰（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090004 王镇涛（研究员） 证书编号：S0790124070021 相关研究报告 《"两新"政策有望优化实施，客车 行 业 出 口 加 速 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《鸿蒙智行尊界 S800 轿车 11 月交付 破 2000 台，宇树科技完成 IPO 辅导— 行业周报》-2025.12.7 《特斯拉 FSD V14.2.1 上线，长安汽车 拟 2.25 亿元参与设立机器人公司—行 业周报》-2025.11.30 首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型获准入许可，全球首条具身 智能机器人电池产线在宁德 ...

以下文章来源于e公司 ，作者证券时报 聂英好 周内涨幅最高的机构调研个股为震有科技，本周涨21.89%，航天智造、经纬恒润-W、南京商旅、红棉股份等9家公司涨幅超过10%，其中红棉股份、雪 人集团、德联集团周内实现首板。 热门标的方面，本周有长安汽车、一品红、博盈特焊、华通线缆等4家公司接受百家以上机构调研，其中长安汽车迎来最多机构投资者， 博盈特焊则在一 周之内接待4次机构调研。 长安汽车获得首批L3准入 长安汽车（000625）本周接受214家机构调研，因工信部在12月15日宣布，发放我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型产品准入许可。 极狐汽车与长安汽车 的两款纯电动轿车获得资质，将在北京、重庆指定区域开展上路试点，长安汽车获批车型为旗下深蓝SL03。 e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价的 主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 来源：e公司 本周（12月15日—12月19日）共有165家上市公司披露机构调研记录，从赚钱效应看，机构调研股涨跌各半， ...

本周（12月15日—12月19日）共有165家上市公司披露机构调研记录，从赚钱效应看，机构调研股涨跌 各半，约五成机构调研公司周内实现正收益。 周内涨幅最高的机构调研个股为震有科技，本周涨21.89%，航天智造、经纬恒润-W、南京商旅、红棉 股份等9家公司涨幅超过10%，其中红棉股份、雪人集团、德联集团周内实现首板。 热门标的方面，本周有长安汽车、一品红、博盈特焊、华通线缆等4家公司接受百家以上机构调研，其 中长安汽车迎来最多机构投资者，博盈特焊则在一周之内接待4次机构调研。 长安汽车获得首批L3准入 博盈特焊一周接待4次机构调研 另一家本周热门调研公司博盈特焊，在周内接待了4次机构调研，共有107家机构参与。博盈特焊自成立 以来就以防腐防磨堆焊装备为核心，专注于特种装备制造，产品广泛应用于节能环保、电力、能源、化 工、冶金、造纸等工业领域。针对垃圾焚烧、生物质发电等领域锅炉腐蚀磨损的行业性痛点，博盈特焊 自主研发了数字脉冲MIG高频振荡堆焊等核心技术，推动了该技术的产业化应用。 长安汽车（000625）本周接受214家机构调研，因工信部在12月15日宣布，发放我国首批L3级有条件自 动驾驶车型产品准入许可。 ...

机构投资者还问及，长安汽车将自动驾驶速度区间限制在0—50公里/小时的原因，长安汽车回应称是基 于用户实际使用场景和先进技术安全应用的考量。作为首批准入试点，长安汽车核心目标是完成安全闭 环验证、推动行业标准成熟，而非追求技术上限。长安汽车表示，基于对日常用户情况的调研及城市交 通分析报告，长安汽车发现0—50公里/小时的速度范围已能覆盖用户在拥堵场景下的需求。 长安汽车还谈及关于L3商业化落地的后续规划，公司预计2026年一季度与使用主体长安车联科技进行 上路通行试点应用。在国家相关法规及政策正式发布实施后，长安汽车将开始面向C端用户进行产品准 入和市场投放。 博盈特焊一周接待4次机构调研 热门标的方面，本周有长安汽车、一品红、博盈特焊、华通线缆等4家公司接受百家以上机构调研，其 中长安汽车迎来最多机构投资者，博盈特焊则在一周之内接待4次机构调研。 长安汽车获得首批L3准入 长安汽车本周接受214家机构调研，因工信部在12月15日宣布，发放我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型 产品准入许可。极狐汽车与长安汽车的两款纯电动轿车获得资质，将在北京、重庆指定区域开展上路试 点，长安汽车获批车型为旗下深蓝SL03车型。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is at a new crossroads in 2026, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology. Investment opportunities lie in commercial vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles, focusing on finding resilient alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends of smart technology and robotics/AIDC [4][10]. Group 1: Automotive Sector Investment Strategy - The automotive industry should reference the years 2011 and 2018 for strategic insights. The focus is on finding resilient alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends, particularly in smart technology and robotics/AIDC [4][10]. - The total domestic demand for passenger vehicles in 2026 is expected to be 22 million units, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, while the demand for new energy vehicles is projected to reach 13.2 million units, an increase of 6.4% [5][10]. - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks are forecasted to be 1.16 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Domestic sales are expected to decline by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are projected to rise by 18.8% to 390,000-400,000 units [5][27]. Group 2: Key Investment Opportunities - In the bus sector, the top picks are Yutong Bus and Jinlong Automobile. For motorcycles, the preferred choices are Chunfeng Power and Longxin General. In the heavy truck sector, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power are favored. For passenger vehicles, BYD is the primary choice, with Jianghuai Automobile as a secondary option. In the parts sector, Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Minth Group are recommended [6][10]. - The L4 RoboX investment opportunities focus on the B-end software sector over C-end hardware. Preferred stocks include XPeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, and others in the H-share market, while A-share selections include Qianli Technology and Desay SV [7][10]. - The robotics and AIDC investment opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on the upcoming Optimus V3 overseas and the rapid development of domestic robotics. Key selections include Top Group for robotics and liquid cooling, and Junsheng Electronics for robotics [7][10]. Group 3: Market Forecasts - The passenger vehicle market is expected to see a total sales volume of 22 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 13.2 million units, an increase of 6.4% [5][17]. - The heavy truck market is forecasted to have a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with domestic sales declining by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are expected to rise by 18.8% [5][27]. - The bus sector is anticipated to maintain a strong export growth rate of over 30%, with domestic sales expected to reach 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [5][32]. Group 4: Motorcycle Market Insights - The motorcycle industry is projected to have total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%. The large-displacement motorcycle segment is expected to reach 1.26 million units, a 31% increase [5][34]. - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 430,000 units, a 5% increase, while exports are projected to be 830,000 units, a 50% increase [5][35]. Group 5: Future Trends and Innovations - The penetration rate of smart driving technology in new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 40% by 2026, with significant growth in the use of domestic chips [22][23]. - The heavy truck export market is expected to recover, with significant growth in regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa, driven by local infrastructure and mining demands [28][29].