Group 1: Service Consumption Catalysts - The promotion of service consumption has a higher marginal increment, with the Ministry of Commerce and nine departments recently releasing policies to expand service consumption, highlighting structural focus [1] - Historically, the structural proportion of service consumption has increased, with the ability to sustain price increases; enhancing vacation markets and flexibility will lead to higher demand elasticity [1] - In service consumption, the education sector shows rigid demand with volume and price still benefiting; policies have expanded high school education, while leading tea and coffee brands have significant expansion space and competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Symbolic Consumption and Emotional Value - Emotional value and experiential consumption address demand pain points and are rapidly realizing commercial value; industries like IP toys essentially consume symbolic and content value [2] - Interesting retail has become a clear trend in offline business development; the Chinese IP toy industry is still in a high growth phase, with leading IPs breaking through demographics, regions, and scenarios [2] - The craftsmanship of gold products is enhancing their added value, driven by consumer attributes, with innovations like ancient gold meeting young consumers' aesthetic and preservation needs [2] Group 3: New Channels Reshaping the Industry Chain - The trend in China's distribution system transformation is shifting from manufacturer-led deep distribution to consumer-driven efficient retail, with core retail capabilities evolving from site selection to product selection [3] - Retail in China is diversifying across categories and scenarios, with positive competition expected among discount snacks, community retail, and hypermarket remodels [3] - Competition in food delivery and instant retail is ongoing, with changes in fulfillment systems and differing demand attributes leading to significant shifts in competitive dynamics [3] - AI technology is being applied to new physical devices, with advancements in efficiency and commercialization in sectors like human resources, e-commerce, and education [3]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is losing confidence in Pop Mart as the LABUBU craze fades, despite the company reporting significant revenue growth in Q3 2025 [1][3][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 245% year-on-year, with Chinese market revenue up by 185% to 190%, and overseas revenue soaring by 365% to 370% [1][3]. - The company's stock price fell by over 30% since reaching a peak market value of over 400 billion HKD in late August, resulting in a market cap loss of nearly 100 billion HKD [5][9]. - The revenue from the LABUBU series reached 48.14 billion CNY in H1 2025, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue, indicating a heavy reliance on a single IP [5][17]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the Q3 announcement, Pop Mart's stock price dropped by 8.08% on the announcement day and further declined by 9.36% on October 23 [4][9]. - The LABUBU secondary market prices plummeted over 80%, reflecting a loss of confidence in the brand's sustainability [8][9]. - Despite temporary boosts from celebrity endorsements, such as appearances by Tim Cook and David Beckham, the stock price could not maintain its gains [9][10]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Challenges - Pop Mart's attempt to extend the LABUBU brand with the "Mini LABUBU" series failed, with prices dropping over 50% shortly after launch [11][13]. - The company's strategy to increase production capacity has led to a decline in the perceived value of LABUBU, transitioning it from an investment item back to a consumer product [14][15]. - The company is at a critical juncture, needing to prove that LABUBU's success can be replicated with new IPs to maintain market confidence [15][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Pop Mart's reliance on LABUBU raises concerns about future revenue growth, especially as the market questions the sustainability of its current success [9][28]. - The company has invested approximately 3 billion CNY in IP development, but this is significantly lower than competitors like Disney, indicating a need for increased investment to build a robust IP portfolio [22][29]. - If Pop Mart cannot deliver a new hit IP by 2026, it may face a shift in market perception from a high-growth leader to a mature consumer goods company, leading to lower valuation multiples [29].

"花用( 善思录：陆天然/文 "1分钱拍下自动长在脑子里的'爱因斯坦的脑子'，月销超7万单；成本几十元的盲盒，隐藏款二手溢价超二十倍；一杯印着励志语录的奶茶，能卖出普通饮 品三倍的价格。"这些看似荒诞的消费现象，正指向一个万亿级赛道的崛起——情绪经济。当物质需求趋于饱和，曾被视为"虚无"的情绪需求正在爆发，那 些看似"无用"的商品与服务，正以惊人的溢价能力重构中国消费市场的底层逻辑。 情绪经济的崛起并非偶然，而是社会发展到特定阶段的必然产物。从数据来看，2024年我国情绪消费市场规模已突破8000亿，未来五年将以每年25%的速度 高速增长，2025年预计突破2万亿元。这一爆发式增长的背后，是三重社会结构性变化的驱动。其一，物质丰裕催生需求升级，当衣食住行等基础需求得到 满足，消费者开始追求精神层面的满足，马斯洛需求层次理论实现"从生存到生活"的进化。其二，社会压力制造"情绪赤字"，996工作制、职场内卷、社交 疏离等问题，让焦虑、孤独成为当代人的集体症候，情绪消费成为填补缺口的"代偿方案" 。其三，代际更迭重塑消费逻辑，2.6亿Z世代贡献了超40%的消费 总额，其中68%的IP消费用于情绪价值产品，他们将消费 ...

Group 1: China Ping An (2318) - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 132.856 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%[6] - The new business value (NBV) for life and health insurance grew significantly to 35.724 billion CNY, up 46.2% year-on-year[7] - The first-year premium income was 141.769 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[7] - The operating profit for the first three quarters was 116.264 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%[6] - The target price is set at 92.7 HKD, representing a potential upside of 65% from the current price[11] Group 2: Pop Mart (9992) - The company reported a revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations[17] - Domestic revenue increased by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%[17] - The target price is set at 400.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 75.3% from the current price[25] Group 3: Alphabet (GOOGL) - Alphabet achieved a revenue of 102.3 billion USD in Q3 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year, marking its first quarter with over 100 billion USD in revenue[30] - The net profit for the quarter was 35 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33%[30] - The target price is raised to 350 USD, suggesting a potential upside of 27% from the current price[34]

Core Insights - The opening of the first store in the Middle East at Hamad International Airport in Doha marks a significant expansion for Pop Mart, being the first 24/7 operational store globally, aimed at providing warmth and companionship to travelers [1][2] - The store's location is strategic, situated in a high-traffic area of an airport recognized as the best globally in 2024, with a transit passenger rate of 74% [1] - The store features a travel-exclusive product line, "Starry People Wonderful Journey Series," designed to cater to travelers' needs, including items like card holders and plush toys [1] Expansion Strategy - The Middle East store is part of Pop Mart's global expansion strategy, which includes establishing regional headquarters and opening stores in key locations such as the UK and Indonesia [2] - As of June 30, Pop Mart operates 571 stores across 18 countries, with a net increase of 40 physical stores and 105 robot stores in the first half of the year [2] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's global business has become a key growth driver, with significant revenue increases across all regions in the first half of 2025, including a 135.2% increase in China and a staggering 1142.3% increase in the Americas [3] - The company reported a projected revenue growth of 245%-250% for Q3 2024, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 365%-370% [3] Market Trends - The opening of the Middle East store reflects Pop Mart's exploration of new tourism consumption scenarios, with a focus on travel retail as a core direction for global expansion [4] - The brand's products are increasingly becoming popular as "travel souvenirs," with recent openings in various tourist hotspots enhancing their visibility and appeal [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyou Securities has a positive outlook on Pop Mart (09992), highlighting its strong capabilities in IP acquisition, incubation, and operation, and maintains a "buy" rating for the company [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 172%, 38%, and 36% for the years 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 251%, 42%, and 39% for the same period, all of which have been revised upwards [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.16, 11.59, and 16.16 CNY per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26x, 18x, and 13x [1] Group 2: Seasonal Outlook - Q4 is traditionally a peak sales season for Pop Mart, with significant demand expected for gifts and trendy toys due to Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas [2] - The launch of the Halloween-themed "why so serious" series has seen strong sales, and upcoming Christmas product releases are anticipated to further boost sales growth [2] Group 3: Long-term Business Development - Over the past decade, Pop Mart has developed a comprehensive operational platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, focusing on five key areas: global artist discovery, IP incubation and operation, consumer engagement, trendy toy culture promotion, and innovative business incubation and investment [3] - The company plans to introduce new product lines, including accessories and building blocks in 2024, and magazines, doll clothes, and gold products in 2025, indicating a gradual expansion of its comprehensive platform [3] Group 4: Company Expansion and Innovation - The company aims to increase its overseas business share by opening stores in key landmark cities, particularly in the US and Europe, and plans to expand new business models overseas, including live streaming [4] - Cost control measures include establishing regional warehouses in Southeast Asia and Europe, which are expected to save 50% in costs and improve replenishment efficiency [4] - The company intends to maintain a disciplined approach to SKU numbers, with a projected limit on the absolute number of SKUs in 2025 compared to 2024, focusing on quality over quantity [4] - Plans for 2025 include opening 100 stores overseas, with overseas revenue expected to exceed 50%, and the North American market projected to match the sales volume of the Chinese market in 2020 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that Pop Mart (09992) is a leader in the domestic trendy toy industry with strong capabilities in IP acquisition, incubation, and operation, leading to a positive long-term outlook for the company [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 172%, 38%, and 36% for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with upward revisions [1] - The net profit growth rates for the same period are projected at 251%, 42%, and 39%, also revised upwards [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 8.16, 11.59, and 16.16 CNY per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26x, 18x, and 13x [1] Group 2: Seasonal Outlook - Q4 is traditionally a peak sales season for Pop Mart, with significant demand expected due to Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas in overseas markets [2] - The launch of the Halloween-themed "why so serious" series has seen strong sales, indicating a positive trend for upcoming product releases [2] Group 3: Long-term Business Development - Over the past decade, Pop Mart has developed a comprehensive operational platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, focusing on five key areas: global artist discovery, IP incubation, consumer engagement, trendy toy culture promotion, and innovative business incubation [3] - The company plans to introduce new product lines, including accessories and building blocks in 2024, and magazines and clothing in 2025, indicating a gradual expansion of its product offerings [3] Group 4: Company Expansion and Innovation - The company aims to increase its overseas business share by opening stores in key landmark cities, particularly in the US and Europe, and expanding sales channels in tourist areas [4] - A focus on live streaming for e-commerce is planned, with expectations that live streaming will account for over 20% of overseas e-commerce by 2025 [4] - The company intends to maintain a controlled SKU strategy, with no more than the absolute value of SKUs in 2024, ensuring a streamlined product offering [4] - Plans for 2025 include opening 100 stores overseas, with overseas revenue expected to exceed 50%, and the North American market projected to match the sales volume of the Chinese market in 2020 [4]

图片来 源：界面图库 近日，泡泡玛特旗下热门IP CRYBABY发布全新的"度假模式"（Vacation Mode On）系列，这是泡泡玛 特时隔5个月再度推出CRYBABY搪胶系列盲盒，一经发布秒售罄。 据悉，泡泡玛特本次推出的CRYBABY"度假模式"新品系列包含6个常规款和1个隐藏款，单个盲盒129 元，整盒价774元。得物App数据显示，隐藏款"美人鱼的眼泪"成交价从129元升至999元，溢价仅6.7 倍，弱于今年5月发售的CRYBABY"豹豹猫猫"系列搪胶毛绒挂件，后者隐藏款"豹豹猫猫"发售后成交 价由79元上涨至1186元，溢价14倍。今年1月，CRYBABY推出了"爱神的眼泪"系列搪胶毛绒吊卡，价 格199元上涨至445元，溢价1.2倍。 近期，泡泡玛特业绩强劲。10月21日，泡泡玛特发布公告，2025年第三季度整体收入同比增长245%至 250%。其中，中国收入同比增长185%至190%；海外收入同比增长365%至370%。 第三季度，中国各渠道收入表现方面，线下渠道同比增长130%至135%；线上渠道同比增长300%至 305%。海外各区域收入表现方面，亚太同比增长170%至175%；美洲同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai highlights that Pop Mart (09992) has exceeded expectations in Q3 revenue performance and has a strong outlook for Q4, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 132.9 billion, 197.8 billion, and 252.0 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 400.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 75.3% from the current stock price and a buy rating [1] Domestic Online Business Performance - The domestic offline channel saw a revenue increase of 130-135% in Q3, attributed to optimized store experiences and improved operational efficiency, maintaining an average store efficiency above double [2] - The online channel performed exceptionally well, with a year-on-year growth of 300-305%, driven by effective conversion from live e-commerce, deep operation of private traffic through box machines, and recognition of some Q2 pre-sale orders in Q3 [2] Overseas Business Growth - In Q3 2025, overseas revenue continued to grow significantly, with the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) increasing by 170-175%, the Americas by 1265-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735-740% [3] - The company is rapidly expanding its market presence by opening new stores, with the number of overseas stores reaching 140 by August 20, 2025, and expected to reach 200 by year-end [3] - Future plans include exploring emerging markets in the Middle East, Central Europe, and Central South America, while also establishing flagship stores in major global cities like Paris, Sydney, Milan, and New York [3] New Product Success - The market demand for new products remains high, with strong growth momentum. The Halloween-themed "Why So Serious" plush series launched on October 9 sold out quickly, and several regular items are selling at multiple times their original price [4] - The "Starry Person" product has seen rapid market recognition and appreciation through series operation, with a secondary market premium of 99%, second only to LABUBU's 215% [4] - Collaborations with popular media, such as the SKULLPANDA series linked to the show "Wednesday," have significantly boosted brand awareness and engagement in the North American market [4] Q4 Growth Catalysts - Looking ahead to Q4, the domestic market will experience major e-commerce events like "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," while overseas markets will see traditional consumption peaks during Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [5] - The company is expected to launch several holiday-themed new products and replenish popular items, which is likely to reignite global consumer purchasing enthusiasm and support Q4 performance [5]

智通财经APP获悉，第一上海发布研报称，基于泡泡玛特(09992)Q3超预期的营收表现以及Q4强劲的旺 季展望，将2025-2027年盈利预测上调至132.9/197.8/252.0亿元，给予目标价400.0港元，相当于25/26财 年盈利预测35.8/24.1倍PE，距离当前股价有75.3%涨幅，买入评级。2025Q3公司营业收入同比增长 245%-250%，在基数较高的背景下，较2025H1204%的增速进一步提速其中国内营收同比增长 185%-190%，海外营收同比增长365%-370%，整体业绩表现超预期。 第一上海主要观点如下： 国内线上业务表现亮眼 国内分管道看，线下管道Q3营收同比增长130-135%，考虑到期内国内门店网络规模并未进行快速扩 张，预计这一增长主要得益于门店体验的持续优化与运营效率的全面提升，使得平均店效维持在翻倍以 上水准。线上管道表现尤为突出，同比增长300%–305%，该行认为线上管道收入高增主要得益于直播 电商的高效转化、抽盒机等私域流量的深度运营，以及部分Q2预售订单在Q3确认收入的共同贡献。 海外业务延续爆发式增长，美洲市场为主要增长引擎 2025Q3海外营收延续高增 ...