Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in livestock and feed industries, with a focus on identifying quality companies for investment opportunities [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the livestock segment, is experiencing significant price fluctuations and profitability challenges, with a recommendation to focus on low-cost, high-quality enterprises [3][4][5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the beef and dairy markets as seasonal demand increases, while also noting the ongoing pressures in the pig farming sector due to price declines [3][4][5][6]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if crop yields decrease significantly [6][49]. Summary by Sections Swine Farming - Current pig prices are in a downward trend, with the average weight of pigs at 128.25 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price drops [3][22]. - The report anticipates continued increases in pig output in the coming months, with limited seasonal accumulation space, suggesting further price declines [3][22]. - Long-term prospects remain positive for leading companies in the sector, with recommendations to focus on low-cost producers like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The poultry sector is stabilizing, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing resilience due to improved downstream demand and supply contraction [4][36]. - The report notes that while white feathered chicken prices are under pressure, overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve with a recovery in consumer demand [4][38]. Livestock - Beef prices are expected to rise as the consumption season approaches, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [5][42]. - The report indicates that the beef and dairy sectors are currently facing losses, but a recovery is anticipated as demand increases and supply contracts [5][43]. Planting Industry - The planting sector is experiencing price volatility due to new corn harvests and ongoing uncertainties regarding soybean imports [6][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving grain yields and suggests that a significant reduction in crop production could enhance the sector's outlook [6][49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various feed types [6][62]. - The aquaculture sector is showing positive trends, with certain fish prices increasing, indicating a potential recovery in this segment [6][62].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 3、宠物板块：淘天首份宠物板块双 11 战报公布，平台流量前置战开启！ 我国宠物经济蓬勃发展，国产品牌崛起快速，关注国内收入高增长的公司。重点推荐宠物食品【乖 宝宠物】、【中宠股份】、【佩蒂股份】；建议关注：宠物医疗【瑞普生物】、宠物用品【源飞宠物】、 【天元宠物】。 4、牛板块：原奶价格持续磨底，静待新周期；肉牛超级周期或已启动；重视牛产业机会！ 奶牛与肉牛产业经历深度亏损后产能加速出清，奶牛存栏下降达 8%（据中国奶业协会）。由于复 产周期长、效率低，预计本轮上行周期持续时间较长。我们认为，当尽管双节对奶价形成短期支 撑，但行业去产能趋势不改，待节日消费支撑减弱，去化趋势更无需担忧，目前产能去化或已接 近尾声，奶价周期拐点值得期待；牛肉价格或迎拐点，但因资金/信心/环保等多重因素影响补栏 积极性，其后续涨幅与持续性可能超预期。具备母牛资源或采用"奶肉联动"模式的企业，盈利 能力更加突出。建议关注：【优然牧业】、【中国圣牧】、【光明肉业】、【现代牧业】、【澳亚集团】 等。 5、禽板块：白鸡&蛋鸡重视引种缺口；黄鸡重视消费需 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The first pet Double Eleven sales report has been released, indicating potential catalysts for the sector [1][12] - The trend of domestic substitution and premiumization in the pet food market remains strong, with most top brands being domestic [2][13] - The current valuation of pig farming is relatively low, with opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies [3][15] - The poultry market shows mixed signals, with white feather chicken prices declining while yellow feather chicken prices are increasing [15][30] - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance growth potential in the agricultural sector [15] Summary by Sections Pet Industry - The top ten brands in the pet food sector are predominantly domestic, with high-end brands like Xianlang and Fregate leading the sales [2][13] - The Double Eleven event is ongoing, with expectations for new product launches and sales data to be closely monitored [14] Pig Farming - The national price for lean pigs is 10.98 yuan/kg, down 3.6% from last week [3][16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.03 yuan/kg, down 2.4% [16][24] - Self-breeding pig farming shows a loss of 244.7 yuan per head, indicating a decrease in profitability [20][21] Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens is 6.87 yuan/kg, down 0.1%, while chicken product prices average 8.6 yuan/kg, down 0.6% [15][34] - The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 2.2% to 3.29 yuan each [15][30] - Yellow feather chicken prices have shown a 1.9% increase, suggesting seasonal price elasticity opportunities [15][40] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is set to enter commercial sales, with potential for growth in the sector [15] - The fluctuation in agricultural product prices is expected to continue, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors [15][49] Commodity Prices - Domestic corn prices have decreased by 2.0% to 2263.14 yuan/ton [50] - Soybean meal prices have dropped by 0.7% to 2993.43 yuan/ton [68] - The price of imported fish meal has decreased by 3.7% to 13067.39 yuan/ton [80]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that pig prices are stabilizing at low levels, with a continued reduction in breeding stock. As of October 17, 2025, the national average price for live pigs is 11.18 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.19 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 6.52% [3][12] - The report highlights that the price of piglets has further declined, which may accelerate the culling of sows. The price for 7kg piglets has dropped to 165 yuan/head, below the industry average cost of 300 yuan/head, leading to potential losses that could hasten the elimination of sows [4][19] - The report notes that the domestic pet market is experiencing a rise in local brands, particularly during the Double Eleven pre-sale event, where the top eight brands in sales are all domestic [5][22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is in a low-level fluctuation, with breeding stock reduction continuing. The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales is 1.02%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points but a year-on-year decrease of 5.07 percentage points. The utilization rate of breeding facilities is 32%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous period and down 15.9 percentage points year-on-year [12][13] Weekly Perspective - The report suggests that losses in pig farming may accelerate the reduction of breeding stock. The price of live pigs continues to decline, reaching a new low for the year, and the losses in pig farming are deepening. The report recommends stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [29][30] Market Performance (October 13-17) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.73 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the agricultural index down 2.20%. Notable stock performances include Shenyin Wanguo Biological (+10.33%) and others [32][37] Price Tracking (October 13-17) - The average price for live pigs is 11.17 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 17.99 yuan/kg, down 0.73 yuan/kg. The average price for white strip meat is 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg [6][47] Key News (October 13-17) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to strengthen the inspection and slaughtering of pigs, emphasizing the importance of quality control in pork products [38]

事实上，自9月生猪价格逐步下行以来，生猪行业已经出现了从盈利到亏损的根本性利润变化，养殖积 极性也不同程度地受到影响。不过，魏鑫表示，由于目前处于亏损初期，养殖端节奏变化不大，相对的 低价还可以限制部分投机性养殖，减少市场波动。 "具体看，9月下旬后行业面临仔猪及育肥猪双亏的局面，淘汰母猪的情绪有所增加，产能去化速度较前 期有所提升，但超预期去产能现象还未发生。短期看，9月至今，出栏体重仍处于环比增长态势，猪价 的大幅下跌也未使得短期产能明显出清，前期的恐慌出栏可能主要集中在无法继续压栏的大体重猪上。 因此，在需求未大幅度提升的情况下，短期猪价反弹力度有限，但继续大幅下跌并维持在现金流成本以 下在较长时间内也难看到，因为短期出栏压力小幅缓解后，养殖端只要不出现恐慌性抛售，生猪价格或 维持底部震荡为主。"侯晓瑞说。 记者注意到，自5月底以来，国家相关部门已四度召开产能调控座谈会，政策力度逐渐加码，如6月农业 农村部会议提出到今年年底全国调减能繁母猪100万头，9月农业农村部畜牧兽医局会同国家发展和改革 委员会召开生猪产能调控企业座谈会，进一步落实产能调控要求。 当前，行业对此的落实情况如何？对此，魏鑫介绍说，从 ...

2025年上半年，在成本下行和养殖技术提升的背景下，生猪养殖行业整体呈现出"量增利更增"的特点， 龙头企业如牧原股份净利润同比暴增逾1000%。多位分析人士表示，猪企业绩增长主要得益于成本控制 能力提升，行业也面临规模扩张与资金链平衡的挑战。进入三季度，生猪价格持续下跌。受此影响，上 市猪企整体呈现"销售增长、收入下降"的特征。 营收分化明显 从2025年上半年生猪养殖业务的收入来看，牧原股份以超过750亿元的营收规模遥遥领先，稳居行业榜 首。温氏股份位列行业第二，营收规模约327亿元。新希望（144亿元）与海大集团（97亿元）分列第 三、第四位。其余上市猪企生猪养殖业务的营收均未突破50亿元。 企业的盈利水平高度依赖成本控制能力。牧原股份、巨星农牧、温氏股份、神农集团等企业凭借精细化 管理和战略调整，将成本优化至行业领先水平，其净利润同比增幅均超过150%。 此外，2025年上半年行业整体出栏量大幅提升。24家上市猪企累计销售生猪1.09亿头，同比增长 31.95%，增速明显提升，印证了"以量补价"的策略成效。 记者了解到，今年上半年，生猪养殖成本已从2024年的14元/公斤降至12元/公斤，部分企业单月养 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. Considering the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term based on the inventory data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, and the active slaughter of large - scale farms, the supply is under pressure. The secondary fattening entry showed signs of cooling. Although the terminal demand is expected to improve with the temperature drop, the current demand is lower than expected. Overall, due to the cooling of secondary fattening entry and the loose supply - demand situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. The supply is under pressure due to theoretical slaughter pressure and active slaughter by large - scale farms. Secondary fattening entry supported the spot price in the early part of the month but showed signs of weakening. The terminal demand is expected to improve but is currently lower than expected. It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak, and short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract are recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price dropped this week, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 30,554 lots, a decrease of 2,535 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 111, an increase of 111 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 390, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 250 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig November contract was 150 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was - 470 yuan/ton [27]. - **Price of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The average national live pig market price was 11.27 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 22.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of October 9, the national pork market price was 23.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 8, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.46, a decrease of 0.22 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads month - on - month, an increase of 0.05% year - on - year, reaching 103.5% of the normal inventory. In September, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.28% month - on - month and increased by 1.09% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.50% month - on - month and increased by 2.10% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In September, according to Mysteel data, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.44% month - on - month and 5.29% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 2.93% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In September, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 4.54% month - on - month and increased by 23.49% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 1.39% month - on - month and 33.52% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.43 kg, a decrease of 0.05 kg from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of October 17, the breeding profit of purchased piglets reported a loss of 375.29 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 75.25 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was a loss of 244.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.46 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.40 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: In August 2025, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.11%. From January to August, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43% [68]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of white - striped chickens dropped, and the spread between standard and fat pigs widened [69]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2993.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2269.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 869.88, a decrease of 1.23% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week. As of August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, an increase of 999,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [75][80][85]. - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 42nd week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly开工 rate fluctuating between 30.95% and 34.44%. The frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.09% from last week. As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 33.5 million heads, an increase of 5.81% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [92][97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report presented the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [98][101]

点击查看公告原文>> 养殖模式方面，基于业务发展历史，唐人神坚持"公司 + 农户"与"自繁自养"相结合的模式。近年来，公 司本部强化营运管理与人才培养，生猪养殖生产指标持续改善。截至2025年上半年，"公司 + 农户"模式 肥猪出栏198.87万头，占肥猪出栏量的80.64%。预计未来肥猪出栏增长仍以该模式为主。 公司资产负债率及资金情况备受关注。截至2025年6月30日，资产负债率为64.5%，账面货币资金约24 亿元，2025年上半年经营活动现金流净额达6.60亿元。未来，公司将持续做好资金管理，与银行等金融 机构保持良好合作，通过子公司股权融资等方式拓宽融资渠道，做好风险管理。 此外，公司在种猪体系建设上也有新进展。为打造生长速度快等综合性能更优的种猪体系，2020年引进 1400多头曾祖代新丹系种猪。经过培育，丹系种猪大幅增加，种猪体系逐步从"新美系"转向高繁殖性能 的"新丹系"，近一年新丹系种猪占比从56%提升至76%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不 ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - The company aims to maintain a pig output target of 5 to 5.5 million heads for 2025, with no adjustments made to the annual output goal as of now [2] - The company operates under a "company + farmer" and "self-breeding" model, which has shown continuous improvement in production indicators [2] - As of mid-2025, the "company + farmer" model accounted for 80.64% of the total pig output, with 198.87 million heads produced [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 64.5%, with cash reserves of approximately 6.60 billion [2] - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 24 million in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3: Breeding System Changes - The breeding system has shifted from the "New American" to the "New Danish" system, with the proportion of new Danish breeding pigs increasing from 56% to 76% over the past year [3] - The company introduced 1,400 new Danish breeding pigs in 2020, enhancing the overall breeding performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to declining prices, with the national average price dropping to approximately 11 yuan/kg, leading to a downturn in the entire sector [1] Industry Overview - The pig price has been fluctuating and has accelerated its decline post-National Day, with the average price falling to about 11 yuan/kg, indicating that the industry is in a loss-making phase [1] - The price of piglets has also decreased sharply, with the price for 7 kg piglets dropping to 183 yuan/head, a decline of 43.5% since early September [1] - The industry is experiencing a comprehensive loss, and the "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the reduction of pig farming capacity [1] - The number of breeding sows has decreased by 0.1% month-on-month as of August, according to the Ministry of Agriculture [1] Company Performance - In September, listed companies reported a total pig output of 14.23 million heads, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month but an increase of 26.3% year-on-year [3] - Excluding Muyuan Foods, the total output of listed companies was 8.65 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.6% and a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [3] - For the first three quarters, the total output of listed companies reached 142.2 million heads, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.7% [3] - Specific companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Dekang Agriculture reported varying output changes in September, with Muyuan Foods seeing a significant decrease of 20.4% month-on-month [3] Sales and Pricing - The average sales price for listed companies in September was calculated at 13.0 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.12% [4] - The average weight of pigs sold in September was approximately 114.7 kg/head, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [4] - Both fat pigs and piglets are currently in a loss-making situation, which is likely to accelerate the reduction of production capacity [4] Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is in a state of comprehensive losses, with prices falling below the cash costs for most enterprises, and piglet sales are also unprofitable [5] - Given the current loss situation in the industry and the "anti-involution" backdrop, the reduction of pig farming capacity is expected to commence [5] - The sector is currently valued relatively low, with a focus on leading companies with cost advantages recommended, such as Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods [5] - Other companies to watch include Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe, with potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology and smaller farming enterprises such as Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [5]