对于后市，我们比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以政策表述从"超常规"到"跨周期"解读政策不积极，但 这存在谬误，2025年超常规是相较于2024年尾部风险暴露而言。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明 确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌 回稳"，并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政 策，继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考 虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年 初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资 金回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始。 考虑到前期股指的大幅调整、总量政策加码与增量入市环境，当下是布局春季行情的重要窗口。春节前 具备产业趋势的大盘成长有望占优，受益险资"开门红"配置的大盘价值也有望反弹。看好科技/券商保 险/消费。 中信建投：跨年有望迎来新一波行情 从9月初至12月初，AH两地市场经历了较长时间的调整，投资者情绪 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Huide Technology (603192) is a leading provider of polyurethane solutions, actively seizing industry trends. The company focuses on differentiated competition strategies and collaborates with downstream customers for customized solutions. Its production of polyurethane for leather accounts for 10.9% of the domestic total, ranking fourth in market share [5][6][7]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The domestic new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is expected to drive significant growth, with NEVs accounting for 26%, 32%, 41%, and 47% of total domestic vehicle production from 2022 to October 2025. Huide Technology's products are widely used in automotive applications, with estimated polyurethane material costs per NEV ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 yuan [6][7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural supply-demand mismatches in the polyurethane market, with projections indicating that by 2030, China's MDI capacity will account for 52% of global capacity, and TDI capacity will reach 59%. This is coupled with strong demand for artificial leather and insulation materials, particularly in the automotive sector [8]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is expected to maintain high-quality growth, with projected net profits of 126 million yuan, 131 million yuan, and 136 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding EPS is estimated to be 0.89, 0.93, and 0.96, leading to a PE ratio of 26.39x, 25.32x, and 24.52x for the same years [8].

Core Viewpoint - Huide Technology is a leading player in the polyurethane solutions sector, actively seizing industry trends [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Huide Technology's polyurethane production accounts for 10.9% of the total domestic output, ranking fourth in market share nationwide [1] - From 2019 to 2024, the company's polyurethane production and sales rate has consistently maintained above 98% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The downstream demand for the company remains robust, with key chemical raw material prices entering a downward trend [1] - The company has achieved full production capacity with its established facilities [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is actively positioning itself in the environmentally friendly and recycled polyurethane market segment, indicating a commitment to sustainable growth [1] - Given the favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives, the company is expected to maintain a high-quality growth trajectory, leading to an initial "buy" rating [1]

MDI Market Overview and Outlook Industry Overview - The global MDI market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to new capacities from China and South Korea, coupled with the impact of US-China tariffs, which limit price increase momentum. The domestic market has entered a low season, and short-term prices are expected to remain stable [1][2] - Global MDI demand growth is lower than expected but still positive. Recent domestic prices for polymer MDI are around 14,500-14,600 RMB/ton, while pure MDI has decreased to approximately 19,500 RMB/ton [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: The MDI industry has seen significant changes in 2025, with slow recovery in domestic and overseas demand. The expected global demand growth was initially set at 3-4%, with domestic expectations at 5-6%, but actual growth has fallen short [2][5] - **Regional Price Comparison**: Recent price adjustments in Asia were lower than anticipated, with a recent increase of $100 instead of the expected $200. Current prices in Europe and domestically are close, while the US market remains stable due to anti-dumping policies and stable demand [2][3] - **Production Rates**: Domestic MDI operating rates have dropped to around 70%, with planned maintenance by companies like Wanhua Ningbo and BASF Chongqing having limited supply impact. European operating rates are also around 70%, while US production has returned to normal levels [4][6] - **Demand Drivers**: Domestic demand for MDI is positively influenced by growth in refrigerator and freezer production, automotive production, and cold storage capacity. The demand for formaldehyde-free board materials is increasing, and wind turbine blade demand is also growing [5][7] Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: MDI inventory is distributed among factories, traders, and end customers. Factory inventories are normal, while traders are keen to stock up, and downstream customers are maintaining low inventory levels due to seasonal price fluctuations [11] - **Future Demand Outlook**: The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with reduced tariff impacts and recovery in the refrigerator and freezer supply chain. The automotive sector is expected to maintain high growth, although slightly lower than in 2025. Exports may rebound, particularly from Europe, Africa, and India, compensating for weakness in the US market [9][10] - **Cost Structures**: Domestic production costs vary, with Wanhua using a coal chemical route at a lower cost compared to others using natural gas. European production costs are higher due to stable natural gas prices, while US production costs remain the lowest globally [13][15] Conclusion - The MDI market is navigating through a complex landscape of supply-demand dynamics, pricing pressures, and regional variations. The outlook for 2026 appears positive, with several growth drivers in place, although challenges remain in the form of geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a layout period at the end of the year, with a high overall weighted operating rate and low price differentials indicating potential for a reversal [14] - The tire industry has shown signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and recovering raw material costs [15] - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" is anticipated to accelerate industry transformation and upgrading [16] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 54,965.58 billion and a circulating market value of 48,900.97 billion [2] Price and Performance - The report indicates a 2.0% absolute performance increase over one month, 28.6% over six months, and 25.6% over twelve months [3] - Key price increases this week include Henry natural gas (+18.5%), ethane (+10.4%), and octanol (+7.8%) [13] Sector Tracking - The tire sector is highlighted for its recovery, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [15] - The agricultural chemical sector is noted for recent price increases in small pesticide varieties and the essential nature of fertilizers [7] - The phosphorous chemical sector is under observation for changes in industry dynamics due to favorable policies [7] Investment Strategies - Suggested investment routes include early-stage recovery stocks, scarce resource leaders, high-growth potential companies, and sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors for their valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [17][18] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated discussions on PTA industry development to prevent excessive competition and promote stable operations [16] - The report notes that the petrochemical sector is expected to undergo significant changes due to new policies aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing technological innovation [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to see a continuous recovery in its economic environment, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions [5][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline is narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in chemical product prices [1] - Capital expenditures in the chemical industry are decreasing, which, combined with recovering demand, is likely to improve the supply-demand balance and enhance industry prosperity [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The basic chemical sector has experienced a slight decline of 0.5% in the past week, ranking 21st among all sectors [10] - The basic chemical index's Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is at 43.8 times, while the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is at 2.47 times, indicating a higher PE valuation compared to historical PB levels [2] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The chemical industry has passed its peak production capacity, leading to a reduction in capital expenditures, with fixed asset investments down by 5.6% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the chemical product price index (CCPI) was 3882 points as of December 4, 2025, reflecting a 10.4% decrease since the beginning of the year [1] 3. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent government initiatives aim to optimize market competition and eliminate outdated production capacity in the chemical sector, which is expected to foster healthy industry development [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical and chemical industry, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% from 2025 to 2026 [4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sectors such as phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, pesticides, MDI, titanium dioxide, and lithium battery materials, which have strong cost control capabilities [5] - It also recommends companies in semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and other high-tech chemical fields that possess technological barriers and customer validation advantages [5]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.27% and a current increase of 1.14% [1][6] - Key stocks in the sector include agricultural chemicals, nitrogen fertilizers, polyurethane, and phosphate chemicals, with notable gains from Yangnong Chemical (over 6%), Luxi Chemical (over 4%), and several others rising over 3% [1][6] - The lithium iron phosphate industry is undergoing a collective price increase, driven by rising raw material costs and expanding market demand, which is seen as the core driver for this price adjustment [7][8] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that strong demand in power and energy storage is pushing the lithium battery supply chain to a turning point, with tight capacity leading to price increases [8] - By 2025, the lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to see a significant shift, with processing fees potentially increasing by 3,000 yuan per ton, raising the average profit margin to 7.5%, an increase of over 7 percentage points from current levels [8] - The current valuation of the chemical sector remains attractive, with the Chemical ETF's underlying index price-to-book ratio at 2.32, positioned at the 39.61 percentile over the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [9] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in demand starting in 2024, driven by improvements in both domestic and international demand, particularly in sectors like automotive, home appliances, and textiles [10] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., thus providing a robust investment opportunity [10]

化工板块今日（12月5日）震荡盘整，截至发稿，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）场内价 格涨0.13%。 成份股方面，农药、钾肥、聚氨酯等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，扬农化工、亚钾国际双双大涨 超2%，鲁西化工、万华化学、华峰化学等多股跟涨超1%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | | | | | | F9 盘箱盘后 婴加 九50 面迁 工具 @ 00 | | 4. TETF 1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 10:18 价 0.791 温康 0.001(0.13%) 均价 0.791 版交量 98 (OPV 0.7914 ) | | | | | | | +0.001 +0.139 | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 10:18:44 交易中 | | 0 / 8 + | | 0.732 | | | | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen rapid development in China's chemical new materials industry, with continuous expansion of industry scale and enhancement of technological innovation capabilities. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on three key paths: pursuing high-end development, promoting green intelligence, and facilitating collaboration [1] Pursuing High-End Development - There is a significant imbalance in the development of chemical new materials in China, necessitating enhanced R&D for high-end materials. The self-sufficiency rate for engineering plastics is improving, but high-end products like optical-grade PC and medical polyether ether ketone have a domestic production rate of less than 30% [2] - The electronic chemicals sector faces challenges with insufficient high-end products. While mature processes have achieved domestic production for certain chemicals, the overall domestic production rate for advanced process chemicals remains low, indicating a critical area for future development [2] Promoting Green Intelligence - Green transformation is becoming a global imperative. The engineering plastics industry is encouraged to transition towards a "green circular" model, focusing on bio-based alternatives, recycling, and clean production methods [4] - The synthetic rubber industry is directed towards "green symbiosis" and "intelligent integration," emphasizing the development of bio-based and green materials, as well as the application of artificial intelligence to optimize production processes [4] Facilitating Collaboration - Collaborative innovation is essential for overcoming industry development bottlenecks. The engineering plastics sector is advised to establish a comprehensive collaborative innovation system, integrating various stages from monomer synthesis to application verification [5] - Standardization is highlighted as a crucial support for the electronic chemicals industry, with a need for a complete standard system to enhance consensus between chemical producers and downstream chip manufacturers [6]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 13th this week (2025/11/24-2025/11/28) with a change of 2.98%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 4.54%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 1.58 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 1.56 percentage points [1]. Key Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that adopt green energy alternatives and leverage integrated and scaled advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will be phased out more rapidly. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with high quota shares, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly [2]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core component of domestic industrialization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, but there is a mismatch with the fragmented and insufficient capacity of high-end electronic specialty gases. Companies that establish high-end capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are likely to seize opportunities for growth. Demand is driven by integrated circuits, displays, and photovoltaics. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [3]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals also align with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. Companies in this sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see their values reassessed [4]. COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of R&D. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic sources is increasing the demand for these materials. The market is currently constrained by high prices, but domestic companies are expected to break through and expand market space. Key company to watch is Acolyte [5]. Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle. Canpotex has withdrawn new quotes, and Nutrien has announced production cuts, leading to a short-term decline in supply. The termination of the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement has increased the prices of wheat and corn, boosting the demand for potash fertilizers. Companies like Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining are positioned to benefit from this trend [6]. MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily improving due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among five major chemical giants, which account for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price fluctuations, MDI remains a high-margin product. Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to benefit from a favorable supply structure as demand recovers [7]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included methanol (East China) at 6.27%, NYMEX natural gas (futures) at 5.90%, and caprolactam (East China CPL) at 5.49%. The top five price decreases included liquid chlorine (East China) at -7.82% and propylene oxide (East China) at -5.85% [8]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 168 chemical enterprises had their production capacities affected, with 9 new repairs and 3 restarts reported [9].