Group 1 - A recent incident involving a visually impaired individual highlights the conflict between technological implementation and human-centered service, raising questions about the adherence to the principle of being "people-oriented" in institutional practices [1][2] - The incident illustrates how rigid execution of regulations can lead to the alienation of users, as technology intended to enhance user experience, such as facial recognition, becomes a barrier instead [2][3] - The lack of market competition contributes to service inertia, resulting in a failure to innovate and adapt services to meet the needs of special groups, emphasizing the need for a balance between commercial and social value in institutional frameworks [3] Group 2 - Institutions should design flexible regulations that accommodate the needs of special groups, ensuring that they are not excluded by cold processes [3] - There is a call for companies and institutions to reassess their evaluation mechanisms, incorporating a sense of humanistic responsibility while pursuing business objectives [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The communication equipment industry has shown a recovery in revenue growth, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 revenues increasing by 2.9% and 12.9% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a successful transition to new growth drivers, particularly AI computing power [2][3] - The net profit for the communication equipment sector saw a decline of 141% in Q4 2024, followed by a 24% increase in Q1 2025, reflecting a positive trend in profitability as the industry adapts to new growth dynamics [2][3] - Key segments such as optical devices and IoT are experiencing significant growth, with optical devices showing revenue growth of 52.6% and 67.5% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, driven by global AI demand [2][3][4] Financial Analysis Communication Equipment - The overall revenue for the communication equipment sector in Q4 2024 was 61.94 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 9.5%, while Q1 2025 saw a recovery with a 9.1% increase [41] - The net profit for the main equipment sector dropped by 66% in Q4 2024 but showed a smaller decline of 11.9% in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges but potential for recovery [41][39] Optical Devices - The optical device segment has shown remarkable growth, with revenues increasing by 52.6% and 67.5% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, and net profits growing by 124.4% and 114.3% [2][3] IoT Sector - The IoT sector continues to validate its recovery, with good revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, benefiting from the ongoing trend of interconnected devices [2][3] IDC & CDN - The traditional IDC sector faces challenges, but the AIDC market is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing demand for computing power driven by AI applications [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "AI + Overseas Expansion + Satellite" as core investment opportunities, particularly in areas like optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power lines [5][6] - Specific stocks recommended include Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and China Mobile, among others, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the AI and digital economy trends [6][13]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月12日 通信行业 2024 年及 2025 年 Q1 经营总结分析 优于大市 运营商稳健发展，AI 产业高景气拉动光通信增长 市场走势 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 相关研究报告 《通信行业周报 2025 年第 16 周-中国推进 6G 国际合作，华为昇 腾新一代芯片规模化商用》 ——2025-04-19 《通信行业 2025 年 4 月投资策略-AI 产业持续保持高景气度，兼 核心观点 行业研究·行业投资策略 | | | 优于大市·维持 | 证券分析师：袁文翀 | 证券分析师：徐文辉 | | --- | --- | | 021-60375411 | 021-60375426 | | yuanwenchong@guosen.com.cn | xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn | | S0980523110003 | S0980524030001 | 顾运营商高股息价值》 ——2025-04-13 《通信行业周报 2025 年第 15 周-"对等关税"扰动，信创受益； 光模块迎"关税豁免"》 ——2025-04-13 《通信行业周报 2025 年第 1 ...

Group 1 - Public funds are preparing for the second half of the year, with a significant increase in attention towards dividend assets, which are viewed as stable components in investment portfolios [1][2] - The average returns of active equity funds have shown recovery, with ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds returning 2.13% and 2.28% respectively year-to-date as of April 30, and a one-year return of 6.95% [1] - The price-performance ratio of dividend assets, such as the CSI Dividend Index, is at the 99th percentile of the past decade, indicating that these assets are currently among the most cost-effective options [2] Group 2 - Certain low-volatility sectors with high dividend yields, such as banking, ports, hydropower, and logistics, are expected to perform steadily due to stable earnings and favorable dividend sustainability [3] - The Hong Kong stock market shows a valuation advantage for high-dividend stocks, supported by a conducive market environment for their performance [3] - Regulatory policies enhancing dividend oversight, combined with a low-interest-rate environment, are likely to accelerate the entry of long-term capital into the market, maintaining the investment value of Hong Kong dividend stocks [3]

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The communication industry achieved high growth in Q1 2025, with notable performance in optical modules, Beidou navigation, and AI supply chains. In 2024, 170 companies in the A-share communication sector reported a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 208.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Excluding the three major operators, the net profit was 27.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. In Q1 2025, the same 170 companies reported a net profit of 52.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 88.3%. Excluding the three major operators, the net profit was 10.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The communication industry is divided into 16 sub-industries, with the highest net profit growth rates in 2024 being: optical modules (12.30 billion yuan, +113%), IoT (1.18 billion yuan, +69%), AI supply chain (43.59 billion yuan, +37%), and operators (180.41 billion yuan, +6%). Other sectors like optical fiber and cable, main equipment, and IDC showed declines [4]. Q1 2025 Sub-Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the sub-industry net profit growth rates were led by Beidou navigation (128 million yuan, +193%), optical modules (4.50 billion yuan, +110%), and AI supply chain (12.82 billion yuan, +65%). The operators reported a net profit of 42.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [5][6]. Top Companies by Net Profit - The top companies by net profit in Q1 2025 included China Mobile (30.63 billion yuan, +3%), China Telecom (8.86 billion yuan, +3%), and China Unicom (2.61 billion yuan, +7%). Notably, New Yi Sheng reported a significant increase of 385% in net profit [6][7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The communication sector still presents structural opportunities, particularly in operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. Certain growth segments are expected to perform well, suggesting a focus on these areas for investment [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by AI development, including servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas markets for servers, switches, and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - China Unicom's Q1 2025 financial report shows growth driven by cloud and IDC data center businesses, with cloud revenue at 19.72 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, and IDC revenue at 7.22 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1]. - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node cluster, featuring 384 Ascend chips, is expected to accelerate domestic AI chip replacement and boost demand for optical modules [1]. - The demand for inference computing continues to grow as tech companies accelerate their investments in multimodal interaction and AI agents, exemplified by Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" and OpenAI's new models [1][7]. - The three major telecom operators are steadily advancing cloud computing and computing power services, driving rapid growth in AI computing demand [3]. Summary by Sections Subsector Insights - **Servers**: 2025 is projected to be a year of significant growth in inference demand, with a shift from centralized cloud services to mass terminals requiring cost-effective dedicated chips. Domestic ASIC chip manufacturers like ZTE and Unisoc are expected to benefit [2][6]. - **Optical Modules**: The CloudMatrix system's architecture will significantly increase the demand for optical modules, with major domestic suppliers like LightSpeed Technology and Shijia Photonics poised for growth [2][10]. - **IDC**: The three major operators are increasing investments in computing power, with companies like DataPort and Runjian benefiting from the growing demand for data centers [3][13]. Key Data Updates - The telecom sector's main business revenue reached 295 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [17]. - The number of fixed broadband access users reached 675 million, with gigabit users accounting for 31.7% [18]. - The mobile internet traffic reached 55.39 billion GB, up 13.6% year-on-year [21]. Market Trends - The report indicates a steady upward trend in the telecom sector, with operators, optical modules, and servers showing robust growth [14][17]. - The IDC index has seen a decline of 2.17% this week, reflecting market fluctuations [13]. Company News - OpenAI has launched the GPT-4.1 series models, enhancing performance and cost efficiency, which is expected to drive demand for AI computing power [55]. - Major cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI and cloud services, indicating strong future demand for computing infrastructure [7].

Core Viewpoint - The trade war is in a stalemate phase, making unexpected stimulus and compromise-based trade agreements unlikely to occur [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Policy Options - The stalemate phase tests the economic resilience of both countries, with China having more policy options, greater space, and longer endurance compared to the U.S. [4] - For China, maintaining its interests and bottom line in the trade war is more important than sustaining a specific economic growth figure [3] - The U.S. faces challenges such as supply chain disruptions, production slowdowns, and inflationary pressures, which limit its fiscal and monetary policy options [6] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is a key element in boosting confidence during the trade war, with strong government commitment to stabilize the capital market [9] - Since April 7, significant inflows into passive ETFs have been observed, with a total net inflow of 1.5 trillion yuan into large-cap ETFs and 491 billion yuan into small-cap ETFs [10] - The central bank's liquidity support for the stock market indicates a long-term holding strategy, aiming to stabilize the domestic stock market regardless of overseas fluctuations [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market may be a weak link in the short term, but there is still a noticeable underweight of mainland funds in Hong Kong stocks [11][12] - The potential for future capital inflows into the Hong Kong market is significant, driven by both domestic and international investors seeking to diversify their portfolios [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - From a risk-averse perspective, sectors such as autonomous technology, those benefiting from European capital expenditure expansion, essential consumer goods, stable dividends, and materials not reliant on short-term performance are expected to outperform [13][14] - Key trends to monitor include the increasing recognition of China's technological self-sufficiency, rising European demand in various sectors, and strengthened trade and technological cooperation between China and non-U.S. markets [14]

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the recent implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is expected to increase global trade costs, leading to potential inflationary or recessionary pressures on the global economy [1][8] - The tariffs include a 10% minimum baseline tariff and higher tariffs on specific countries, with China facing a 34% tariff, which could exacerbate external demand challenges for China [7][8] Short-term and Mid-term Market Impact - In the short term, risk appetite is likely to be under pressure due to inflation or recession narratives, impacting asset pricing and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][10] - Historical data suggests that after tariff announcements, the A-share market may experience initial pressure followed by potential rebounds, depending on new catalysts [10] - Mid-term asset pricing will revert to fundamentals, with the actual impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries being crucial [10] Policy Response and Domestic Growth - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the actual impact of tariffs and potential policy responses, as external demand contraction may necessitate stronger domestic growth policies [2][9] - There is an expectation for increased domestic policy measures to stimulate growth, such as interest rate cuts and consumption incentives, especially if negotiations yield positive outcomes before the tariffs take effect [2][9] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive approach focusing on dividend-paying assets, as market risk appetite is expected to decline [4][11] - Key sectors to consider include telecommunications, transportation, utilities, and state-owned banks, which are likely to attract defensive capital [11] - Additionally, there is a recommendation to explore offensive opportunities in sectors that may benefit from tariff exemptions or domestic growth policies, such as local consumption and infrastructure investments [12]

Group 1 - Concerns over tariffs have altered long-term expectations for the US stock market, leading to the conclusion that the bull market that began in October 2022 has ended [1] - The impact of tariff policies is significant, as the current administration prioritizes reducing fiscal deficits over economic growth, inflation, and stock market performance [1] - The risk of stagflation may increase if oil prices rise sharply in the second quarter, with stagflation characterized by uncontrollable inflation beyond 3.0% [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators are gradually improving, with social financing data showing year-on-year increases and PPI showing notable improvements [2] - The A-share market is expected to shift from sentiment-driven to performance-driven in the second quarter, favoring sectors with low valuations and strong earnings [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face limited impact from US tariff policies, with a shift from broad-based gains to sector differentiation anticipated [3] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Cloud computing, which is expected to benefit directly from deployments in various enterprises [3] 2. New energy vehicles and components, which have shown rapid growth and competitive advantages [3] 3. New consumption and pharmaceuticals, with the latter undergoing valuation recovery after three years of decline [3] 4. Dividend sectors, including insurance and stable earnings from operators, banks, and public utilities [3] 5. A performance revision pool in Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 51% of companies showing upward revisions in earnings [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights that global major indices experienced a general adjustment in March, with the US stock market leading the decline, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell over 8% [5][6] - A/H shares showed strong performance in the first half of the month but retreated in the latter half, indicating resilience compared to other global markets [5][6] - The article notes a significant depreciation of the US dollar and a notable appreciation of the euro, driven by disappointing US economic data, which heightened recession concerns [5][6] Group 2 - China's economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in January and February, but the foundation remains weak, with industrial profits declining by 0.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned negative in February, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to show negative growth for 29 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic demand [8][9] - The uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of real estate sales and the impact of overseas tariffs on exports poses risks to China's economic outlook [8][9] Group 3 - The market is transitioning from a phase of "speculative expectations" to a "performance verification" window, particularly significant in April when A-share earnings reports are released [10] - The first quarter earnings reports are expected to show strong performance in certain sectors, including non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and engineering machinery, driven by structural price increases and domestic and foreign demand [12][14] - The technology sector is anticipated to report high growth, particularly in areas such as IoT, audio, and wearable devices, supported by recovery trends [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the narrowing of style gaps in the market, indicating a potential return to original styles after periods of extreme divergence, with historical examples provided [16][17] - The TMT sector's trading volume has returned to a safe zone, suggesting that market sentiment has stabilized [19] - The relationship between US and Chinese assets is highlighted, with the narrative of "East rising, West falling" becoming more pronounced, particularly in the tech sector [21][22]