新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-23 套利：中性。 风险 现货偏紧贸易商挺价 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.90 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌110元/吨至22650元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌5元/吨至200元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨至22620元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨25元/吨至170元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌100元/ 吨至22640元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至190元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-22沪锌主力合约开于22515元/吨，收于22455元/吨，较前一交易日下跌130元/吨，全天交易日 成交82262手，较前一交易日减少16240手，全天交易日持仓59658手，较前一交易日减少7517手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22535元/吨，最低点达到22365元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-22，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.04万吨，较上周同期减少-0.59万吨。截止2025-05-22，LME 锌库存为156225吨，较上一交易日减 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot market premium in most regions is weakening, and downstream demand remains cautious due to high prices. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. There is still profit in smelting, and supply pressure persists. Consumption in May may face challenges, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$29.83/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,760 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,700 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 25 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,530 yuan/ton and closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,502 lots, an increase of 3,796 lots, and the position was 67,175 lots, a decrease of 9,455 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,510 - 22,675 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 21, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - In the spot market, inventories in Guangdong are continuously declining, while premiums in other regions are weakening. After the rebound of absolute prices, downstream buyers are still hesitant due to high prices and make inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand. Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. Although the increase in TC is limited, smelting still has profits, and the supply pressure persists. Domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and domestic ore TC is still rising. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a sequential decline in consumption after May [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-20 沪锌价格依旧在博弈库存变化 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-20.95 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌120元/吨至22650元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至230元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌220元/吨至22510元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌95元/吨至90元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/吨 至22630元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至210元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-19沪锌主力合约开于22480元/吨，收于22455元/吨，较前一交易日下跌70元/吨，全天交易日成 交126096手，较前一交易日增加7907手，全天交易日持仓85560手，较前一交易日减少8786手，日内价格震荡，最 高点达到22565元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-19，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.38万吨，较上周同期减少-0.17万吨。截止2025-05-19，LME 锌库存为160800吨，较上一交易日减少3400吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both single - side and arbitrage strategies is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Affected by the positive sentiment of Sino - US talks, commodity prices generally rose, but zinc prices were relatively weak due to weak fundamental data, increasing TC, supply pressure, an open zinc ingot import window, and signs of inventory accumulation. If the inventory accumulation trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, high premiums have significantly declined due to increased inventory and more relaxed supply. Consumption in May may face challenges, with the possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [3] Summary by Related Content Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium was - 26.13 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 22720 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 50 yuan/ton to 430 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 22720 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 50 yuan/ton to 430 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 60 yuan/ton to 22690 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 60 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22360 yuan/ton, closed at 22490 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 229910 lots, an increase of 89893 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 118030 lots, a decrease of 1140 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22080 - 22515 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 169850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment is generally stable and positive with eased trade frictions and expected domestic monetary policies. The raw material supply is expected to be loose, and the TC increase space in May is limited. The zinc price is expected to be weak, ranging from 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. If the zinc price rebounds with the macro - sentiment, short positions can be considered. Continuous attention should be paid to the macro and downstream consumption situations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.87% to 22,700 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 1.60% to 22,190 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 2.95% to 2,653.5 dollars/ton [15]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate Situation - **Port Inventory**: As of May 9, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 130,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons [28]. - **Profit**: As of May 8, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,774 yuan/metal ton. In March, the zinc concentrate import volume was 359,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.09% and a year - on - year increase of 47.16% [35]. - **TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased slightly. As of May 9, the average import TC was 40 dollars/dry ton, and the average domestic TC was 3,500 yuan/metal ton [3]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Situation - **Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises fluctuated slightly. As of May 8, the production profit was - 494 yuan/ton. In April, the output increased to 555,400 tons. In May, the output is expected to remain stable [43]. - **Import**: The Shanghai - London ratio rose, and the import profit window opened. As of May 9, the import profit of refined zinc was 66.05 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 1.01 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43,000 tons [47]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Situation - **Galvanizing**: The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.26 percentage points to 60.87%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Terminal orders from special - high - voltage projects were released, but export orders decreased due to tariff uncertainties [55][58]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The price of zinc alloy declined. The operating rate increased by 5.59 percentage points to 54.6%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. Electronic product orders were okay, but traditional hardware and export orders were weak [66][70][73]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The price of zinc oxide decreased. The operating rate increased by 1.16 percentage points to 59.73%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Rubber - grade and feed - grade orders weakened, ceramic - grade orders were stable, and export was uncertain due to anti - dumping investigations [81][84][87]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - **Social Inventory**: As of May 8, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 72,300 tons, an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease [94]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 9, the SHFE inventory was 47,100 tons, a decrease. The LME inventory was 170,300 tons, a decrease [97]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from January 2024 to March 2025, with some months in short supply and others in surplus [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices maintain a volatile pattern. Consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices. The consumption side may face a test in May, with a possible sequential weakening in consumption after May. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$36.93/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On May 8, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,245 yuan/ton, closed at 22,175 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 222,075 lots, an increase of 66,119 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 119,907 lots, an increase of 3,206 lots. The highest price reached 22,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,070 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 170,650 tons, a decrease of 750 tons from the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Trading has been lukewarm. Rising absolute prices have dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decline in spot premiums. However, overall inventory is low and supply is tight, so spot premiums remain at a high level. [4] - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upside potential in the future. But it does not affect smelters' profitability, so TC is not the main concern for now. [4] - **Supply**: The expected output in May is slightly lower, but still shows a high year - on - year growth. There may also be a delay in maintenance, so the supply pressure persists. [4] - **Consumption**: This is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory supports zinc prices. Consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices. Consumption in May may face a test, and there may be a sequential weakening in consumption after May due to the approaching end of the export rush window and over - drafting. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory is the main current concern, and consumer resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices [1][3] - The cost of TC is not the main concern, the supply - side pressure remains, and the consumer side is the focus, with a possible weakening of consumption after May [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$37.09/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,860 yuan/ton, SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 22,910 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium rose by 60 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 6, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,390 yuan/ton, closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 115,056 lots, a decrease of 306 lots, and the position was 111,715 lots, an increase of 5,719 lots. The highest price was 22,580 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 172,925 tons, a decrease of 875 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upward space in the future, and it is not the main concern for now [3] - **Supply**: The expected output in May will decline slightly but still maintain high - year - on - year growth, and there may be a delay in maintenance, so the supply - side pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: It is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory and the rising spot premium support zinc prices. However, consumption may face a test in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy is neutral [4]

不锈钢——观望 期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 沪锌早报 走势评级： 镍——反弹后做空 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【格林美 2024 年实现净利润 10.2 亿元 镍金属产量增长 91%】格林美年报显示，2024 年，公司实现营业收入 332 亿元，同比增长 8.75%，创历史新高；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 10.20 亿元，同 比增长 9.19%。2024 年全年产出镍金属 51,677 吨，同比增长 91%，为 2024 年公司业绩稳定与增长奠定坚实基础。公司在印尼建成 15 万金吨/ 年镍资源产能，目前公司控股产能为 11 万金吨镍/年，参股产能为 4 万 金吨镍/年，在世界 MHP 镍产能领域排名前 3，镍资源竞争力与影响力进 入全球级。（格林美） 矿端：印尼于 26 日提高矿业特许权使用费，矿端价格坚挺，菲律宾聂矿 到岸价格出现反弹，季节性的镍矿转松尚未显现，如节奏过慢，将导致短 期矿端偏紧，对价格形成支撑，需作为风险点考虑。但正常情况下，季节 ...