Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg's unexpected copper production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the mid - term allocation value of copper is still optimistic, with consideration of long - term mid - term orders or selling put options below 78,000 [1] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are acceptable, and one can hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating this week. The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see; for domestic - foreign arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be made for domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak. The short - term macro aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and the policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [3][4] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 [5] - Tin prices are in a wide - range oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and one can lightly short above 275,000 yuan/ton; in the medium - to - long - term, hold near the cost line at low prices [10] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillates. With the support of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance after CATL's production cut turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is average [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident delays Grasberg's resumption of production, reducing the 2026 copper production guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase in the mine supply next year if the Panama mine does not resume production [1] - Fund long positions are gradually increasing, but the focus of macro and bulk CTA funds is still on precious metals. The gold - copper ratio is at a low historical quantile [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, and aluminum ingot imports provide an increase from January to August [1] - Downstream construction improves, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules stabilizes. Attention should be paid to whether overseas demand stabilizes after the decline [1] - There is a slight inventory reduction in September, and a seasonal slight inventory increase is expected in October [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreases further, and imported TC increases further. The domestic zinc ore supply is tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas mine supply increased unexpectedly in the second quarter [2] - In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic social inventory oscillates, and overseas LME inventory decreases. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is close to opening [2] Nickel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [3] - There is a slight inventory increase in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3] Stainless Steel - The supply side expects a slight resumption of production by steel mills, the demand side is mainly for rigid demand, the price of nickel iron remains stable, and the price of chrome iron rises slightly [3][4] - There is inventory reduction in Xifu, and a slight inventory reduction in warehouse receipts [3][4] Lead - On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery is in short supply, the recycled lead maintains low - level operation, and the TC quotation is in a chaotic decline [5] - On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, the battery construction rate increases this week, and the demand turns slightly prosperous [5] - The refined - scrap price difference is - 75, the long - term supply in Henan is tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decrease by 20,000 tons [5] Tin - On the supply side, the domestic smelting plants reduce production, and the supply from overseas gradually recovers. The supply side is marginally repaired [10] - On the demand side, the demand for solder is mainly rigid. The downstream restocking intention is strong when the price drops rapidly this week, and the inventory reduction is significant [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the expected changes after October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises resume production, and some factories in the southwest may gradually reduce production later [11] - The supply and demand are balanced in September and October, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material end has strong price - support intention from overseas mines and reluctant selling from traders, but salt factories have low acceptance of high - price lithium mines [11] - The pre - holiday stocking rhythm of the lithium - salt end is strong first and then weak, and the spot basis is weakly stable, with some discounts expanding by 100 - 200 yuan [11] - In the context of strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance speculation materializes, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbance materializes [11]

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The zinc spot market is difficult to improve, even if the previous absolute price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton, the spot discount has not been repaired. The domestic and foreign trends still deviate, with continuous destocking of overseas inventories, increasing the risk of warehouse receipts, which forms a favorable support for prices. Domestically, consumption shows an obvious transition from the off - season to the peak season, with the downstream operating rate increasing month - on - month, but the domestic supply - side pressure remains. Although the domestic concentrate TC may decline later, the imported concentrate TC continues to rise, so the inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $43.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 21,830 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 75 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,895 yuan/ton, closed at 21,860 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 109,733 lots, and the position was 141,867 lots. The highest intraday price reached 21,985 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,860 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased again, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metal prices. However, the zinc spot market is difficult to improve. The domestic and foreign trends deviate, with overseas destocking and increasing warehouse - receipt risks supporting prices. Domestically, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but supply - side pressure remains, and inventory accumulation is still expected. [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The domestic zinc market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, while overseas is facing continuous de - stocking. The domestic and overseas zinc market trends are still deviating, with an external strength and internal weakness situation persisting. The zinc ingot export window is about to open, and short - term attention should be paid to the re - balancing impact on the domestic and overseas markets after the change of the import and export window [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $50.91 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 21,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,960 yuan/ton and closed at 22,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 140,526 lots, and the position was 130,425 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,095 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,890 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 46,825 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The domestic and overseas zinc market trends deviate, with the internal - external ratio continuing to widen. Overseas inventory is continuously de - stocking, the premium is rising, and the warrant risk is further increasing, which supports the price. In the domestic market, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the downstream operating rate is increasing month - on - month, and social inventory has slightly declined. However, the domestic supply - side pressure remains. Although the domestic ore TC may decline in the later period, the imported ore TC continues to rise, so the inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. Domestic downstream price - fixing enthusiasm increased, and the spot discount was slightly repaired but still weaker than the off - season. The internal - external ratio is widening, with the LME inventory falling below 50,000 tons and the spot export window about to open. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with large supply pressure and difficult de - stocking. Overseas has strong support, and attention should be paid to overseas interest rate cut frequency and inflation data [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $24.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 80 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On September 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton, closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 119,872 lots, and the open interest was 71,757 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 48,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market Performance: Shanghai zinc futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. ZN2510 closed at 22,280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%, with reduced volume and positions. The 10 - 11 spread was - 5. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, with some local quotes slightly falling. SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. By - product sulfuric acid prices dropped due to supply recovery. Despite a contraction in comprehensive profit, it remained at a relatively high level. September saw more smelter overhauls and some secondary zinc enterprises faced raw material price hikes and tight supply, with expected monthly output down 1 - 2 tons to around 600,000 tons. Supply remained generally loose. After the parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China were lifted, leading to a month - on - month increase in the primary consumption sector's开工. However, the improvement in consumption was slowly transmitted upstream, and social inventories continued to accumulate, though at a slower pace. There was a divergence between the strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with concerns about overseas refined zinc supply causing a spot premium (0 - 3B41.33). Given the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc and no sign of a de - stocking inflection point, the market maintained a range - bound pattern. The market generally expected a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to be announced early Thursday, and attention was on Powell's speech for guidance on the path of interest rate cuts for the year [7] Group 3: Industry News - Zinc Price and Transaction Information: On September 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,175 - 22,280 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand was 22,285 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,105 - 22,210 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v at a 20 - yuan/ton discount, Huize at a 50 - 60 - yuan/ton premium, and high - end brand Double - swallow at a 90 - 100 - yuan/ton premium. In different regions, the prices and quotes relative to the contracts varied. For example, in Ningbo, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,175 - 22,260 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2510 contract; in Tianjin, 0 zinc was at 22,110 - 22,270 yuan/ton, with various discounts to the 2510 contract; in Guangdong, 0 zinc was at 22,090 - 22,230 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2511 contract and a discount to Shanghai spot prices, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price spread widened [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department provided data on the two - market zinc price trends, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [7][10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the inventory accumulation in China is expected to continue, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the expectations for the peak consumption season are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $30.17/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 70 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,190 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 110 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 90 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On September 15, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,345 yuan/ton, closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,830 lots, and the open interest was 92,003 lots. The highest price was 22,365 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,255 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of September 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,600 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 50,150 tons, a decrease of 375 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices fall, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories increase. The liquidity of spot goods improves, and procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits increase, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. The raw material reserves of smelters are further improved, and the number of available days of ore does not decline. It is expected that the TC will continue to rise. The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and the inventory accumulation in China is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand with inventory accumulation. However, as downstream开工 rates rise and there is an expectation of regular inventory stocking before the National Day holiday, the demand side is expected to improve, and the speed of inventory accumulation will slow down. Additionally, LME zinc remains in a back structure, the Shanghai-London ratio continues to deteriorate, and the zinc ingot export window is expected to open. In the short term, the support below the zinc price is solid, and one can lightly allocate long positions. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes and overseas risks [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.96% to 22,160 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.68% to 22,305 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.45% to 2,956 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount, trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, Shanghai - London ratio, and various spot and futures spreads [12][14]. 2. Raw Material Situation - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 445,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons [21]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of September 11, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,838 yuan/metal ton. In July, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.20% [28]. - **Processing Fees**: The domestic TC decreased slightly, while the imported TC continued to increase. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][32]. 3. Refining Production - **Production Profit**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of September 11, the production profit was - 228 yuan/ton. In July, the domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 620,000 - 630,000 tons in August [38]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window was closed. As of September 12, the import profit of refined zinc was - 2,804.68 yuan/ton. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,600 tons [41]. 4. Downstream Consumption - **Galvanizing**: The galvanizing enterprise开工 rate increased by 5.98 percentage points to 56.06%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [47][50]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The price of zinc alloy increased slightly. The开工 rate increased by 2.99 percentage points to 53.99%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [59][62][65]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The price of zinc oxide increased by 0.47% to 21,300 yuan/ton. The开工 rate increased by 2.71 percentage points to 57.21%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [69][72][75]. 5. Inventory Situation - **Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory**: As of September 11, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 143,300 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [82]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE inventory was 94,600 tons, showing an increase. As of September 11, the LME inventory was 50,500 tons, showing a continuous decline [85]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from July 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc [91].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Spot water further expands, downstream high - price fear leads to rigid demand restocking. Under the consumption recovery and domestic supply pressure, the spot water expands compared to the off - season. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing while domestic inventory is increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but overseas factors support the price [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content a) Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $23.01/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 105 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On September 11, 2025, the opening price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, the closing price is 22,250 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 93,321 lots, and the open interest is 100,442 lots. The highest price is 22,285 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 22,145 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 154,200 tons, with a change of 2,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 50,625 tons, with a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3]. b) Market Analysis - Spot water expands, downstream restocks due to rigid demand. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing and there is a risk of cornering the market, while domestic inventory is increasing and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year [4]. c) Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has increased expectations of three interest rate cuts within the year due to the decline in the US PPI to 2.6% and the weakening of the US non - farm payroll data. Copper supply is facing disruptions, and the market is expected to have a pattern of "increased supply and weakened consumption" next week [3][4]. - The alumina supply - demand surplus is becoming more apparent in the spot market, with prices showing a downward trend, but there may be interference from the "anti - involution" sentiment [11][13]. - The aluminum price is supported by the increase in market interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in fundamental factors such as the decrease in ingot casting volume and the reduction in social inventory [17][21]. - The policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry have initially shown their impact, but the actual influence is still limited to local areas. The alloy ingot spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [25][29]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increased social inventory and weak consumption, and the short - term price trend is not clear [34][37]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [41]. - The nickel market is affected by factors such as the increase in LME inventory and high supply growth, and the price has limited upward space and a weak trend [48][49]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern due to concerns about recession risks and the accumulation of supply pressure [57]. - The tin market has tight ore supply and uncertain demand recovery, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63][66]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state, and short - term long positions are recommended [70]. - The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [75][76]. - The lithium carbonate market has a stage - tight supply - demand situation, and short - term rebounds can be considered for short - selling opportunities [81]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE copper 2510 contract was 80,130 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, with the index position increasing by 8,972 lots to 494,900 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 85 yuan/ton, while the premiums in Guangdong and North China decreased [2]. - **Important Information**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its closed copper mine. As of September 11, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons compared to Monday, but is expected to increase slightly next week [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic factors increase interest - rate cut expectations, and the copper supply is affected by production accidents and policies, with tight supply and weakened consumption [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a weak oscillation [14]. 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review**: The price of the alumina 2511 contract increased by 16 yuan to 2,925 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [8]. - **Relevant Information**: India has postponed the approval of an alumina project, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises are conducting alumina procurement tenders. The industry's average profit in August was 368 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus is obvious, and prices are falling. The flow of goods from the north to the south is increasing, and the market is in a weak state [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: After a correction, consider long positions on dips, conduct inter - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [11]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The September 11 closing price of the SHFE aluminum 2510 contract was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 1,305 yuan, with the position increasing by 27,022 lots to 569,300 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [17]. - **Relevant Information**: The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and China's CPI and PPI data were released. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and some overseas projects are progressing [17][18]. - **Trading Logic**: The market's interest - rate cut expectations support the price, and the improvement in fundamentals such as inventory reduction drives the price up [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be considered on dips. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [22][23]. 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 125 yuan to 20,475 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 2,314 lots to 14,012 lots. Spot prices remained stable [25]. - **Relevant Information**: Policy adjustments in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting the market, the industry's profit in August was 104 yuan/ton, and the futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [25][26][28]. - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes, tight raw material supply, and increasing downstream demand support the price, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly strong [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [30][31]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: The SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 970 lots to 222,700 lots. The spot market trading was dull [33]. - **Relevant Information**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the CZSPT released the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of smelters may decline slightly in September, consumption is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [35][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and consider short positions on rallies [38]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: The SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.36% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 742 lots to 89,300 lots. The spot market had weak demand [39]. - **Relevant Information**: The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may move sideways in the short term [42]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 130 yuan to 120,620 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,412 lots. The premiums of different nickel products changed [43][44]. - **Relevant Information**: SMM expects the Indonesian domestic trade ore price to rise slightly in the second half of September [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in LME inventory and high supply growth limit the upward space of the price [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [50][51][52]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract fell 30 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,990 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [54]. - **Relevant Information**: The stainless - steel inventory in Foshan decreased, and a new project's environmental impact report was being approved [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about recession risks and supply pressure lead to a wide - range oscillation pattern [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely, and temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [58][59]. 3.9 Tin - **Market Review**: The main SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 271,260 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan/ton or 0.66%, and the position decreased by 532 lots to 57,067 lots. The spot price rose, but the trading was slow [61]. - **Relevant Information**: US and Chinese economic data were released, and the domestic tin production in August decreased [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ore supply is tight, the demand recovery is uncertain, and the price may oscillate weakly after the macro - boost sentiment fades [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate weakly, and temporarily wait and see for options [66][67]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Affected by market rumors, the industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price generally rose 100 yuan/ton [68][69]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [70]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state, and the price has an upward trend [70]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and consider reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts [71]. 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract rose slightly, closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price remained stable [74]. - **Relevant Information**: The national economic and social development plan implementation report was released, and the demand and supply situation of polysilicon in September was analyzed [75]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, and short - term light long positions can be considered [76]. - **Strategy**: Participate in light long positions with timely stop - loss, conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy wide - straddle options for profit - taking [77]. 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 880 yuan to 71,000 yuan/ton, the index position decreased by 17,672 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [78]. - **Relevant Information**: Shanghai's new energy上网电价 reform notice was issued, and the national economic and social development plan implementation report was released [79][80]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is stage - tight, and the price may have a short - term rebound [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, temporarily wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [80][81][83].