集装箱运输
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集装箱运输市场日报:短期偏弱震荡格局延续,船司陆续公布黄金周空班-20250905
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 02:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak and volatile pattern of the container shipping market continues, and shipping companies are gradually announcing blank sailings for the Golden Week [2]. - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. The prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The EC2510 contract is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with purchased shipping space but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [2]. - For shipping companies with increased blank sailing efforts or approaching the peak season, to prevent rising freight rates and increased transportation costs, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions - The futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 780 lots to 27,222 lots, the short positions decreased by 1300 lots to 30,668 lots, and the trading volume increased by 1140 lots to 29,546 lots (bilateral) [2]. - CMA CGM has continuously lowered the European line quotes for September, and the futures price weakened and fluctuated as expected following the decline of the spot cabin quotes on the European line. However, there are still uncertainties, including the uncertainty of US tariffs and the gradually announced blank sailing plans of major shipping companies for the Golden Week, which support the futures price from the supply side [2]. Bullish Interpretations - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These additional tariff measures can remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court [3]. - On September 1st local time, due to the expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [3]. Bearish Interpretations - MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, with the decline basically remaining the same [4]. - CMA CGM's spot cabin quotes on the European line in early September continued to decline [4]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 5, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 472.90 points, with a daily increase of 22.30 points and a weekly decrease of 232.30 points; the basis of EC2512 was 97.60 points, with a daily increase of 25.20 points and a weekly decrease of 321.60 points; and so on for other contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1300.7 points, with a daily decline of 1.69% and a weekly increase of 1.22%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1676.0 points, with a daily decline of 1.48% and a weekly increase of 6.68%; and so on for other contracts. Also shows the price differences between different contracts [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 15, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1092, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1827, an increase of $11. On September 18, the total quote for 20GP was $1040, an increase of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1740, an increase of $10 [7]. - For CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the next two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1210, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020, a decrease of $200 [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, a decrease of 216.6 points or 10.88% compared to the previous value; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.9 points, a decrease of 27.48 points or 2.64% [7]. - The SCFI for the European route was $1481 per TEU, a decrease of $187 or 11.21%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923 per FEU, an increase of $279 or 16.97% [7]. - The XSI for the European line was $2421 per FEU, a decrease of $31 or 1.26%; the XSI for the US - West line was $2034 per FEU, an increase of $96 or 5.0% [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, an increase of $16 or 0.81% [7]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 4, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.360 days, a decrease of 0.098 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.420 days, a decrease of 0.378 days; and so on for other ports [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 4, 2025, the average speed of container ships over 8000 TEU was 15.769 knots, a decrease of 0.055 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of container ships over 3000 TEU was 14.765 knots, an increase of 0.013 knots; the average speed of container ships over 1000 TEU was 13.323 knots, an increase of 0.183 knots [22]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, the same as the previous day [22].
集装箱运输市场日报:现舱报价引领期价下行-20250904
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:31
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The prices of all monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined. The futures prices dropped as expected following the decline in the spot cabin quotes on the European line, especially Maersk's new weekly cabin opening quotes. For the future, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with available cabin space but full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended entry range for selling EC2510 is 1350 - 1450 [1]. - For those hoping to book cabins based on order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures to lock in booking costs. The recommended entry range for buying EC2510 is 1150 - 1250 [1]. Market Information - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from the 39th to the 41st week, canceling a total of four voyages. Maersk increased the quotes for some newly added cabins in early September [2]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, and the quotes of MSC and Hapag - Lloyd for spot cabins on the European line in early September continued to fall [3]. Data Analysis - **EC Basis and Price Spread**: The basis, daily and weekly changes of different EC contracts on September 4, 2025, are provided, along with the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads between different contracts [4]. - **Shipping Quotes**: Maersk's shipping quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam for different container types and departure dates in September are given, showing some increases and decreases. MSC's quotes for the next two weeks decreased, and Hapag - Lloyd's average quotes for the past three weeks also declined [6]. - **Global Freight Index**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of multiple global freight indexes, including SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX, are presented [7]. - **Port Waiting Time**: The waiting times at major global ports on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, are provided, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Yantian, Singapore, Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah ports [14]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Vessels**: The average speeds of different types of container ships on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage are given [22].
集装箱运输市场日报:MSC新添空班,警惕高位风险-20250903
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 00:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened with a significant upward movement, then fluctuated, and declined near the close. All contracts' prices ended the day higher. The significant increase in today's futures prices was due to the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal, bringing positive macro - sentiment, and the upward trend of US - line freight rates also had a spill - over effect on the market. Additionally, MSC announced a blank - sailing plan for the Asia - Europe route, which was favorable for the futures price from a supply perspective. Looking ahead, Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the likelihood of EC futures prices oscillating or oscillating downward was relatively high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained shipping positions but face full capacity or poor booking volumes during the off - peak peak season and are worried about falling freight rates, with a long spot exposure, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank - sailing efforts or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to orders, with a short spot exposure, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [1]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These measures could remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. This ruling did not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations [2]. - On September 1st local time, due to expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC planned to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [2]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Maersk's new weekly opening quotes continued to decline, and the decline remained basically the same [3]. - The SCFIS European Line index accelerated its decline [3]. 3.3 EC Data 3.3.1 EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 3, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 432.90 points, with a daily decrease of 49.30 points and a weekly decrease of 238.40 points. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.3.2 EC Prices and Spreads - On September 3, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1340.7 points, with a daily increase of 3.82% and a weekly increase of 1.65%. Different contracts had different price changes and spreads [4]. 3.3.3 EC Main Contract Speculation and Closing Price - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.3.4 EC Main Contract Basis - Relevant data and trends are presented graphically, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 11, Maersk's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1175, up $10 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $1970, up $20. On September 18, the 20GP opening quote was $1020, up $120 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1700, up $200 [6]. - In the second week of September, Evergreen's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1455, down $150 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $2210, down $200 [6]. 3.5 Global Freight Rate Indexes - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, down 216.6 points (-10.88%) from the previous value. Different global freight rate indexes showed different changes [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, down $11 (-0.55%) from the previous value [7]. 3.6 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 2, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.760 days, an increase of 0.321 days from the previous day. Different ports had different waiting time changes [14]. 3.7 Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 2, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.804 knots, a decrease of 0.022 knots from the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages remained at 17 [22].
集运日报:SCFIS跟随下跌盘面处于筑底过程基差收紧近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250902
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:05
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict and tariff fluctuations make the game difficult, suggesting light - participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - The overall freight rate is still declining, and the market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI flash was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI flash was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI flash rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the services PMI flash was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. 3.3 Trade and Policy - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try long positions lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly with small positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On September 1, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, down 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical Events - On August 31, the Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli army killed the spokesman of the Hamas Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip, but Hamas has not confirmed this news. The Israeli army has been expanding military operations against Hamas [5]. - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea [5].
集运指数欧线周报(EC):运价持续下跌,不断接近成本线-20250901
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 06:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating weakly", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillating weakly; arbitrage: 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation" [3] Core View of the Report - The freight rate of the container shipping index has been continuously falling and is approaching the cost line. Spot freight rates are bearish, with the September FAK freight rate center in the market at 2000 - 2200. Political and economic factors are neutral, and the container ship order book has reached 10 million TEU. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, and the demand is also neutral. The OCEAN's September freight rate reduction rhythm has accelerated, which may put pressure on MSK to reduce prices to attract cargo. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the price of the 12 - contract is likely to show an oscillatingly weak operating trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The September prices of GEMINI, OA, PA, and MSC have all decreased, with the market FAK freight rate center in September at 2000 - 2200 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. There are events such as the threat of revenge from the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, the extension of the exclusion list measures in the US - China trade investigation, the EU's proposed tariff on US goods, the container ship order book reaching 10 million TEU, and the US government's plan to expand national security tariffs [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The subsequent shipping capacity deployment shows different levels in different months, and there is a transfer of ships from the US line to the European line in September [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, and the OA alliance's loading rate has a relatively large decline, resulting in a relatively large price reduction recently [3] - **Summary and Strategy**: The OCEAN's freight rate reduction may put pressure on MSK. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the 12 - contract price is likely to be oscillatingly weak. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillating weakness and 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation [3] Part Two: Price - **Spot Market**: The demand recovery is slow, the supply is high, a new alliance has been established, and the price is falling in the off - season [5] Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on container ship order volumes in different loading capacities and time periods [15] - **Delivery Volume**: Data on container ship delivery volumes in different loading capacities and time periods are presented [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: Information on future container ship deliveries in different loading capacities, time periods, and quarterly seasonality is provided [24][26][27] - **Shipbreaking Price**: Data on shipbreaking prices of container ships in different loading capacities and new - building prices, including indices and prices in different loading capacities, are shown [31][33] - **Second - hand Ship Price**: Information on second - hand container ship prices, including indices and prices of ships with different loading capacities and ages, is presented [37][39][41] - **Existing Capacity**: Data on the existing capacity of container ships, including total capacity, capacity in different loading capacities, the proportion of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and shipbreaking average age, are provided [46][49][53] Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: Data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances and shipping companies, are presented [60][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Information on container ships with installed, being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, as well as average speed and idle capacity, is provided [71][72][79]
SCFI欧线降幅不减,短期震荡偏弱格局延续
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 11:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European route) futures fluctuated slightly downward. As of the close, the prices of all EC monthly contracts declined. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional investors on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 688 lots to 28,238 lots, and the short positions decreased by 619 lots to 30,214 lots. The trading volume increased by 1,269 lots to 28,527 lots (bilateral). ONE continued to lower the spot container quotes for the European route in early September, which was negative for the futures price trend. In the current off - season with weakening demand, the European route freight rates continued to decline. For the future market, it is more likely that EC will continue the trend of fluctuating and falling back, and attention should be paid to the risk of a low - level rebound in some contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained container positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's container positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling suggestion in the range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the blank sailing rate or are about to enter the peak market season and hope to book containers according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and additional transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the container booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying suggestion in the range of 1150 - 1250 [1]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Israeli military said it was preparing to expand military operations against Hamas in Gaza City [2]. - **Negative Factors**: ONE continued to lower the European route quotes in early September, and the SCFI European route accelerated its decline [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 729.20 | 24.00 | 48.00 | | EC2512 | 427.50 | 8.30 | 98.50 | | EC2602 | 582.10 | - 8.10 | 56.90 | | EC2604 | 785.80 | 11.60 | 60.10 | | EC2606 | 614.1 | - 2.10 | - 136.07 | [4] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1261.0 | - 1.87% | - 3.67% | EC2510 - 2602 | - 147.1 | - 32.1 | 8.9 | | EC2512 | 1562.7 | - 0.53% | - 5.93% | EC2602 - 2606 | 32 | 6 | - 3 | | EC2602 | 1408.1 | 0.58% | - 3.88% | EC2606 - 2510 | 115.1 | 26.1 | - 5.9 | | EC2604 | 1204.4 | - 1.77% | - 4.75% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 301.7 | - 15.7 | 50.5 | | EC2606 | 1376.1 | 0.15% | - 3.77% | EC2512 - 2602 | 154.6 | - 16.4 | - 89.3 | | EC2608 | 1561 | - 1.11% | - | EC2602 - 2604 | 203.7 | 19.7 | 3.2 | [5] Container Shipping Spot Container Quotes - On September 11, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,160, a $5 increase from the previous value in the same period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,940, a $10 increase from the previous value in the same period. - In early September, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,674/1,374, a $130 decrease from the previous value in the same period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2,143, a $200 decrease from the previous value in the same period [7]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 1990.2 | 2180.17 | - 189.97 | - 8.71% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1041.38 | 1106.29 | - 64.91 | - 5.87% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 1481 | 1668 | - 187 | - 11.21% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 1923 | 1644 | 279 | 16.97% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 1916 | 1887 | 29 | 1.54% | [8] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | 2025 - 08 - 28 | 2025 - 08 - 27 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.370 | 0.542 | - 0.172 | 0.855 | | Shanghai Port | 1.469 | 1.646 | - 0.177 | 1.185 | | Yantian Port | 0.774 | 1.008 | - 0.234 | 0.719 | | Singapore Port | 0.786 | 0.669 | 0.117 | 0.545 | | Jakarta Port | 0.782 | 0.601 | 0.181 | 0.969 | | Long Beach Port | 2.185 | 2.403 | - 0.218 | 1.805 | | Savannah Port | 1.216 | 1.417 | - 0.201 | 1.858 | [13] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | Ship Type | 2025 - 08 - 28 | 2025 - 08 - 27 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.896 | 15.911 | - 0.015 | 15.681 | | 3000+ | 14.882 | 14.905 | - 0.023 | 14.96 | | 1000+ | 13.264 | 13.236 | 0.028 | 13.299 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | [23]
集装箱运输市场日报:期价短期仍以偏弱震荡为主-20250829
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European routes) are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with a relatively high possibility of a continued oscillating and declining trend, but be aware of the risk of a low - level rebound in some contracts [1]. - The continued reduction of the spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by MSC and CMA CGM is negative for the futures price trend, and geopolitical risks may also decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendation - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [1]. - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine the booking cost in advance [1]. Market Data EC Contract Data - As of August 29, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts all declined. For example, EC2510 closed at 1285.0, down 2.36% daily and 3.02% weekly [4]. - In terms of the long - short positions of the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 643 to 28949, the short positions decreased by 1003 to 30997, and the trading volume increased by 8352 to 28093 (bilateral) [1]. Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 11, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP total quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam remained the same as the previous period. In early September, MSC's 20GP and 40GP total quotes decreased by $50 compared to the previous period, and CMA CGM's 20GP and 40GP total quotes decreased by $100 and $200 respectively [6]. Global Freight Rate Index - Most global freight rate indices declined, such as the SCFIS European route index, which dropped 189.97 points to 1990.2, a decrease of 8.71% [6]. Port Waiting Time - On August 28, 2025, the waiting times of some ports changed compared to the previous day. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port increased by 0.071 days to 0.542 days, while that at Shanghai Port decreased by 0.035 days to 1.646 days [13]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity - On August 28, 2025, the speeds of some container ships increased slightly, such as the 8000 + container ship with a speed of 15.911 knots, up 0.092 knots from the previous day. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 0 [21]. News and Events - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's delegation visited Canada and will go to the US. China is willing to work with the US to maintain the healthy and stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]. - US President Trump held a meeting to break the negotiation deadlock between Israel and Hamas and formulate a post - Gaza war plan [3].
“再全球化” 推动贸易韧性增长 集装箱巨头中集集团破局增长
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-28 10:48
Group 1: Industry Overview - The global container shipping industry is experiencing increased volatility due to factors such as tariff changes and geopolitical tensions, yet international trade volume continues to grow, indicating a shift towards "re-globalization" with emerging markets in Africa, South America, and South Asia becoming key growth nodes [1][8] - The container supply chain sentiment index remains in a positive range, with a reported index of 176.61 in July 2025, reflecting an upward trend in new container production and slight price increases [4][5] Group 2: Company Performance - CIMC Group reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, achieving operating income of 76.09 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.278 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 47.63% [2] - The container manufacturing segment remains a strong pillar for CIMC Group, with revenues of 21.735 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.2% increase year-on-year, alongside a record sales volume of 1.1259 million TEU for dry containers [2][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite uncertainties from tariff changes, domestic trade in China is steadily growing, with a reported import and export volume of 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 2.9% year-on-year [4] - The demand for refrigerated containers has surged, with sales reaching 92,000 TEU, doubling year-on-year, driven by strong export demand for fruits from South America [2][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global container shipping market is projected to see a trade volume increase of 2.5% by the end of 2025, reaching 219 million TEU, supported by a significant rise in imports to the U.S. and exports from the EU [5][6] - Shipping companies are actively preparing for emerging markets and new shipping routes, with new container ship orders reaching 1.9201 million TEU in the first half of 2025, a 25.78% increase from the same period in 2024 [9]
中国拉动亚洲赴欧集装箱运量创新高
日经中文网· 2025-08-27 08:00
Core Viewpoint - The container shipping volume from Asia to Europe reached a historical high in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by increased exports from China and Hong Kong, which accounted for nearly 80% of the total volume, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [1][6]. Group 1: Container Shipping Volume - In the first half of 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 9.571 million TEUs, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase and setting a record for the highest volume in the first half of the year [3]. - The previous record was 8.79 million TEUs in the first half of 2024, influenced by disruptions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which led to a surge in cargo shipments [3]. - The overall shipping volume for 2024 was also a record high at 18.18 million TEUs [3]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - The increase in container shipping volume is significantly influenced by the escalating US-China trade tensions, which have led China to pivot towards Europe as an alternative market for exports [1][6]. - The US government's substantial tariff hikes on Chinese goods have resulted in a decline in shipping volumes from China to the US, with three consecutive months of lower volumes compared to the previous year [6]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Future Outlook - Despite the increase in shipping volumes, the European economy lacks strong momentum, leading to an uncertain outlook for cargo transportation [1][8]. - In June 2025, the shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.625 million TEUs, showing a modest year-on-year growth of 1.3%, but a slight decline of 0.3% from the previous month [8]. - Factors such as Germany's large-scale fiscal stimulus may boost cargo transport, but the ongoing "de-risking" initiatives in Europe could reduce reliance on Chinese imports, creating uncertainty for future shipping volumes [8]. Group 4: Freight Rates and Supply Chain Dynamics - The freight rates for container shipping between China and Europe have begun to decline, with the current rate at $1,668 per 20-foot container [9]. - The influx of new ships since 2024 has led to signs of oversupply in the container shipping market, contributing to the downward pressure on freight rates [9]. - The reallocation of container ships from European routes to US routes has created temporary tightness in supply, but as ships return to European routes, freight rates are expected to fluctuate [9].
集装箱运输市场日报:期货标的降幅扩大,08合约交割-20250826
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 07:41
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first oscillated upwards and then returned to oscillation. As of the close, except for EC2606, the prices of each monthly contract of EC have rebounded. Affected by commodity sentiment, the futures price rebounded from a short - term low. Considering the current spot cabin quotes on the European line and the situation of the futures underlying, it is more likely that EC will continue to oscillate with a downward bias or maintain an oscillating trend [1] - The rise of the main commodity contracts is positive for the short - term sentiment of container shipping [2] - ONE has lowered its September European line quotes [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For cabin management, if one has already obtained cabins but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about a decline in freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin situation to lock in profits. For the EC2510 contract, the recommended selling entry range is 1450 - 1550 [1] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation, to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. For the EC2510 contract, the recommended buying entry range is 1200 - 1300 [1] EC Contract Data - As of the close, from the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, for the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 614 lots to 28,928 lots, the short positions increased by 1393 lots to 32,916 lots, and the trading volume increased by 16,486 lots to 47,955 lots (bilateral). Today, the EC2508 contract was delivered, and the delivery settlement price was 2135.3 points, basically consistent with the final closing price of 2136.0 points [1] - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2136.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 2.29%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1358.0 points, with a daily increase of 3.74% and a weekly decrease of 1.10%; and so on for other contracts. There are also detailed data on price differences between different contracts [4] - On August 26, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was - 145.80 points, with a daily decrease of 8.30 points and a weekly decrease of 237.77 points; the basis of EC2510 was 632.20 points, with a daily decrease of 49.00 points and a weekly decrease of 174.87 points; and so on for other contracts [3] Spot Cabin Quotes - According to Geek Rate, on September 4, for Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam sailings, the total quote for 20GP was $1310, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2200, an increase of $10 compared to the previous period. In early September, for ONE's Shanghai - Rotterdam sailings, the total quote for 20GP was $1654, a decrease of $460 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2343, a decrease of $700 compared to the previous period [6] Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1990.2 points, a decrease of 189.97 points or 8.71% compared to the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1041.38 points, a decrease of 64.91 points or 5.87% compared to the previous value; and so on for other freight rate indices [7] Global Major Port Waiting Time - On August 25, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.452 days, a decrease of 0.112 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.800 days, a decrease of 0.120 days compared to the previous day; and so on for other ports [13] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity at Suez Canal - On August 25, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.872 knots, an increase of 0.094 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.742 knots, a decrease of 0.09 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.385 knots, an increase of 0.143 knots compared to the previous day. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 18, a decrease of 3 compared to the previous day [23]