股市赋能"反内卷"，历史借鉴及港股机会展望 20250804 摘要 当前中国工业企业利润率接近历史低位，传统行业和新兴产业均面临内 卷式低价竞争，削弱行业竞争力和创新能力，亟需新一轮供给侧改革以 提升整体竞争力。 本次供给侧改革不同于 1998 年和 2016 年的改革，旨在通过优化市场 环境、强化行业自律和引导企业创新，解决低价恶性竞争问题，推动高 质量发展。 历史上的供给侧改革曾带来股市行情，如 1998 年国企改革和 2016 年 去产能改革，分别在 A 股和港股市场引发上涨行情，并带动相关行业股 票估值修复。 新一轮反内卷政策有望减少低价竞争，提高企业利润空间，促进技术积 累和创新研发投入，利好具备核心技术优势和创新能力强的企业，并带 动相关领域股票估值修复。 能源和原材料行业市净率普遍较低，若估值修复至 1 倍或 1.5 倍，将带 来显著上涨空间。可重点关注港股中传统中上游行业龙头公司，其估值 修复潜力较大。 Q&A 2024 年下半年开始的新一轮供给侧改革的背景和目标是什么？ 从 2024 年下半年开始，中国政府启动了新一轮供给侧改革，旨在应对企业资 本回报率下降和产能利用率低的问题。2025 年 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk-based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For financial institutions and exchange service providers, when the amount of funds remitted abroad by customers is RMB 5,000 or more per transaction, or the foreign currency equivalent of $1,000 or more, they should verify the identity of the remitter to ensure the accuracy of the remitter's information. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards worth more than RMB 10,000 at one time [2] - In the first half of the year, China's total service imports and exports reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Among them, exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%; imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [2] - According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in July were 1.18 million, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. Among them, Tesla China sold 67,900 vehicles in July, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% [2] - US President Trump said that India is not only buying a large amount of Russian oil but also reselling a large part of it on the open market to make huge profits. Therefore, the US will significantly increase the tariffs paid by India to the US [2] - In July, imported soybeans arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the operating rate of oil mills remained high. The soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 10.1 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 14.59%. Last week, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills remained at a high level. As of the week ending August 1, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.25 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 80,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 180,000 tons, and an increase of 360,000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2.2 million tons [3] Group 2: Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, plastic, Shanghai copper, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - The night session performance of different commodity sectors shows that non-metallic building materials rose 2.89%, precious metals rose 28.20%, oilseeds rose 12.31%, non-ferrous and soft commodities rose 2.53% and 21.15% respectively, coal, coke, steel and ore rose 14.26%, energy rose 3.09%, chemicals rose 11.61%, grains rose 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.78% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - The changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data is not clearly described in text form [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of different asset classes are provided. For example, among equities, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% daily, 0.28% monthly, and 6.91% annually; among fixed-income products, the 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.02% daily, -0.01% monthly, and -0.42% annually; among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index fell -0.55% daily, -1.50% monthly, and -0.49% annually [7] Group 6: Major Commodity Trends - The trends of major commodities are presented through various charts, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership among CATL, Times Electric, Shenzhou Car Rental, and CMB aims to introduce battery swapping models into the car rental industry, creating a sustainable energy supply solution and enhancing the mobility ecosystem [2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed by CATL, Times Electric, Shenzhou Car Rental, and CMB in Ningde City, focusing on large-scale implementation of battery swapping in the rental sector [2]. - The partnership will leverage energy supply, asset operation, financial support, and vehicle services to build a comprehensive ecosystem for mobile travel [2]. Group 2: Vehicle and Technology Integration - Shenzhou Car Rental will introduce CATL's "Chocolate" battery-swapping models across various vehicle categories, including economy, comfort, and business types, with plans to operate over 100,000 battery-swapping vehicles this year [2]. - The vehicles will be equipped with CATL's standardized battery swapping blocks, offering a range of 400-600 kilometers, catering to diverse rental needs [2]. Group 3: Infrastructure Development - The collaboration will utilize Shenzhou Car Rental's over 2,000 offline locations and parking resources to establish a battery swapping network, enabling efficient "return and swap" services for rental customers [3]. - Battery swapping stations will prioritize the use of photovoltaic green electricity and participate in grid peak regulation, contributing to the development of a new power system [3]. Group 4: Cost Efficiency and Digital Integration - CMB and Times Electric will provide competitive battery leasing solutions to reduce rental vehicle costs and enhance operational efficiency for Shenzhou Car Rental [3]. - A digital platform will be developed, integrating battery swapping station navigation and payment functions into the Shenzhou Car Rental app, creating a seamless "rental-swap-return" service process [3].

Research Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the agricultural products sector, most products are in a state of weak supply - demand balance or facing certain pressure. In the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors such as production, demand, and international market conditions. The industrial metal sector is influenced by supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and policy factors. The financial market is affected by macro - economic data, policy expectations, and international market trends [6][9][14]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, most chemical products' prices decreased. For example, the price of coking coal dropped from 1,141.00 to 1,126.00, a decrease of 15.0 with a decline rate of 1.315%. The price of asphalt decreased from 3,573.00 to 3,549.00, a decrease of 24.0 with a decline rate of 0.672%. Only natural rubber and 20 - number rubber prices increased slightly [6]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: Some agricultural products' prices increased, such as yellow soybean No.1, which rose from 4,117.00 to 4,133.00, an increase of 16.0 with an increase rate of 0.389%. However, some products' prices decreased, like white sugar, which dropped from 5,718.00 to 5,709.00, a decrease of 9.0 with a decline rate of 0.157% [6]. - **Market Analysis** - **Peanuts**: The peanut market price is basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to have a strong - side shock but still maintain a downward trend [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: The total trading volume of oils and fats decreased by 57% compared with the previous trading day. The market lacks driving forces and is expected to have a weak - side shock [14]. - **Sugar**: The sugar futures showed a downward - shock trend. The Brazilian sugar production is about to enter the supply peak, and the domestic market needs to be vigilant against the pressure of processed sugar arrival in August [14]. - **Corn**: The corn futures weakened. The wheat substitution effect is prominent, and the import supply pressure increases. It is expected to have a weak - side shock [14]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and the demand improvement is not obvious. The market is expected to maintain an interval shock [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg spot market has differences between the north and the south. After the correction, the spot is expected to have limited further decline. The 08 - contract futures should avoid long positions and try short positions [15]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton continued to decline, and the Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly. The domestic cotton spot market has a weak foundation, and short - term long positions should be cautious [17]. 3.3 Macro - economic News - **Policy and Regulation**: The central bank, financial regulatory authorities, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for customer due diligence of financial institutions. Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, and Hainan has proposed 20 measures to develop future industries [9][10]. - **Economic Data**: In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume was 38872.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. It is expected that the new social financing in July will increase year - on - year. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in July is 118 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [9][10]. - **International News**: Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on India. The EU will suspend the implementation of tariff counter - measures against the US for six months. The probability of a US interest rate cut in September is high [10][11][24]. 3.4 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price continued to be under pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level adjustment due to factors such as supply increase and consumption off - season [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the futures price is in a high - level adjustment, being vigilant against the impact of macro - emotions [21]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market of steel products has limited demand in the off - season. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are affected by macro - emotions and raw material prices, and they are in a weak - side shock to find the bottom [21]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese continues to increase, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by macro - policy expectations, and it is recommended to adopt a range - shock strategy [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is under high - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. If it effectively stands above 70,000 yuan, a small - position long position can be tried [23]. 3.5 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On August 4, the A - share market showed different trends. The trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and the volatility investors can sell wide - straddle options to short volatility. The short - term adjustment of the stock index does not need to be worried, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [23][24].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market, with a penetration rate of 44.3% in the first half of the year, marking a historical high for the same period [5][8] - The Shanghai government has implemented measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, aiming to boost high-quality development [5][8] - Beijing has introduced a mechanism to promote investment growth in future industries through 16 measures, tailored to local conditions [5][8] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,583.31, with a slight increase of 0.66%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.46% to 11,041.56 [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.60 and 40.70, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][15] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a recovery in the engineering machinery and industrial robotics sectors, with the AIDC industry showing high prosperity [34] - The food and beverage sector has seen a slight increase, particularly in the white wine and cooked food segments, despite overall underperformance in the first half of the year [18][19] - The photovoltaic industry has rebounded significantly, with a 9.73% increase in the index, driven by policies aimed at curbing low-price competition [22][24] New Energy Vehicle Industry - The global sales of electric vehicles are projected to exceed 20 million units by 2025, with China's market leading in both total volume and growth rate [26][27] - The report emphasizes the comprehensive development of the NEV industry chain in Henan Province, which includes upstream raw materials, midstream components, and downstream vehicle manufacturing [25][27] New Energy Storage Industry - The new energy storage sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in installed capacity expected to reach over 30 million kilowatts by 2025 [28][32] - The report outlines the importance of lithium-ion batteries in the storage market, highlighting the competitive landscape and the need for technological advancements [29][33] Capital Market Insights - The report notes that the capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by favorable policies and liquidity conditions [8][15] - The focus on technology growth and cyclical manufacturing sectors is recommended for future investments, particularly in software development, photovoltaic equipment, and pharmaceuticals [15][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability, highlighting the recent performance of external stock prices and key economic indicators from China [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the timing for an interest rate cut is approaching due to signs of a weakening job market and a lack of persistent tariff inflation [1]. - China's service import and export total reached 38,872.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Exports were 16,883 billion yuan, up 15%, while imports were 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit decreased by 1,522.1 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks rose, with defense and machinery sectors leading the gains, while retail and oil sectors lagged. The market turnover was 15.2 trillion yuan [2][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 4.753 billion yuan to 1.966274 trillion yuan as of August 1 [2][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy has been driving stock index increases since July, with current policy signals clear, but the fundamentals have yet to be validated [2][10]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Rubber prices stabilized after a decline, supported by supply-side factors, while demand remains weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][17]. - Glass futures continue to show weakness, with inventory levels decreasing as summer maintenance deepens, indicating a focus on supply-side contraction [3][16]. - The pure soda market is also experiencing a trial stop in price declines, with inventory levels decreasing, suggesting a process of stock digestion [3][16]. Group 4: Industry News - In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [7].

据中国机械工业联合会，今年上半年，新能源汽车市场渗透率达44.3%，创同期历史新高。 乘联分会：7月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量118万辆，同比增长25% 据乘联分会消息，根据月度初步乘联数据综合预估：7月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量118万辆，同比 增长25%，环比下降4%。今年1-7月累计批发763万辆，同比增长35%。 余承东：尊界S800车型累计大定超1万台 8月4日，华为常务董事、终端BG董事长余承东宣布，尊界S800上市67天大定突破10000台。据了解，尊 界S800为华为与江淮汽车合作的尊界品牌首款车型，官方售价70.8万-101.8万元，大规模交付将于8月中 旬全面开展。 今年上半年新能源汽车市场渗透率创同期历史新高 国家企业信用信息公示系统网站显示，7月31日，爱驰汽车有限公司新增一则股权冻结信息，股权所在 企业为上海爱驰亿维汽车销售有限公司，冻结股权数额7亿人民币，冻结期限3年，执行法院为上海市黄 浦区人民法院。 吉利智驾整合：吉利研究院等三大团队并入新公司，规模3000人 极狐汽车与广汽能源开启充电网络共享合作 据21财经，吉利控股集团近期对吉利系内部智驾公司、团队进行了一轮大整合。极 ...

记者丨郑植文 编辑丨张明艳 在乐道L90正式上市之前，价格、交付分别是外界最关注和最担心的点。 前者关系到这款产品能否迅速占领用户心智，让乐道品牌"起死回生"，助力蔚来公司穿越低谷；后者则关系到这款意义重大的产品是不是 真的"成了"，还是会重蹈L60、ET5的覆辙，半路哑火。 7月31日，乐道L90以整车购买最低26.58万元的价格上市，当晚便开启交付。据乐道总裁沈斐透露， 乐道L90的定价相对较早，"但是冰箱 加入标配是（上市）头一天晚上定的。" 一时间，乐道门店人潮涌动，看车、下单的消费者络绎不绝，一位乐道销售告诉21世纪经济报道记者："每天看车的人从早到晚都没停过， 用户一拨接一拨，早班熬成通班，都没时间吃饭，试驾车轮子都快跑冒烟了。" 蔚来创始人李斌在最新的媒体见面会上坦言： "上市当天新增订单确实比我们想象得多很多。" 乐道L90的上市表现，不仅是一款新车产品 定义的成功，更是蔚来战略转型的关键一役，承载着蔚来扭亏为盈与重塑市场信心的双重使命。 L90上市当晚，蔚来美股股价涨超5%。"蔚来真的好起来了"，一位蔚来用户在看完上市发布会后告诉记者。 但对于乐道和蔚来而言，还不到"开香槟"的时候，沈斐强调 ...

Group 1 - Renowned historian Xu Zhuoyun passed away at the age of 95, known for his influential works in Chinese history [3] - Xu's notable academic contributions include "Ancient China Trilogy" and "Chinese Culture Trilogy," with significant awards such as the National Library Wenjin Book Award [3] - The article highlights Xu's impact on the Chinese-speaking world and his various academic positions across prestigious universities [3] Group 2 - Neta Auto is seeking potential investors for restructuring, requiring a deposit of 50 million RMB by September 15, 2025, with 53 interested parties reported [5] - Longfor Group denied rumors regarding Li Ka-shing's sale of his Hong Kong property, clarifying that the information is false [5] - WeChat employees refuted claims that changing phone dates could recover expired files, emphasizing that expired files cannot be retrieved [7] Group 3 - Zhejiang Hongzhen Intelligent Chip Company, where Zong Fuli served as a director, has been dissolved as of July 28, 2025 [10] - Zhao Wei's shares in multiple companies have been frozen, totaling 1.59 million RMB, with a three-year freeze period [11] - Henan retail giant Pang Donglai reported a sales figure of 1.666 billion RMB for July, with a cumulative sales of 13.386 billion RMB for the first seven months of the year [11] Group 4 - ByteDance has launched its 2026 campus recruitment, offering over 5,000 positions, a significant increase from the previous year's 4,000+ [14] - The recruitment drive shows a 23% increase in demand for R&D positions, particularly in algorithms and front-end development [14] Group 5 - ChatGPT's weekly active users are projected to reach 700 million, marking a fourfold increase compared to last year [20] - OpenAI's annual recurring revenue has risen from 10 billion USD in June to 13 billion USD, with expectations to exceed 20 billion USD by year-end [20] Group 6 - VinFast is negotiating to increase local procurement in India as it opens its first factory there [22] - AI startup Linggan Shike has achieved a valuation exceeding 100 million USD after recent funding rounds led by Sequoia China and Hillhouse Capital [23] - The electric vehicle market is seeing significant investment, with various companies completing substantial funding rounds [23]

过去十年，"扩张"一度是中国产业的重要关键词。光伏组件产能飙升，新能源汽车赛道涌入近百家造车新势力，电商平台用"9块9包邮"改写零售规则。这种 以规模换份额、以低价换市场的"内卷式竞争"，不仅扭曲了市场定价，也扰乱了竞争秩序。 在此背景下，从中央财经委会议的定调，到各部委密集出台的政策细则，一场旨在重塑行业生态、优化产能结构、推动高质量发展的行动正在展开。2025年 中央财经委会议首次将"破除内卷式竞争"上升为国家战略，本轮"反内卷"不再局限于传统行业，而是将光伏、新能源汽车、医药、半导体等战略性新兴产业 一并纳入，覆盖面更广、影响更深。 与此同时，资本市场也在悄然重构。投资者开始重新审视那些长期被"价格战""产能过剩"压制的行业，寻找真正具备技术优势、治理规范、盈利可持续的龙 头企业。而在这场产业出清与价值重塑的浪潮中，创业板指（399006）作为中国创新创业企业的"晴雨表"，其成份股高度聚焦政策支持的"三创四新"领域， 与"反内卷"战略方向深度契合，或将成为捕捉政策红利与产业升级机遇的精准载体。 "反内卷"进行时 竞争是市场经济的灵魂，企业通过竞争提高产品和服务质量。但"内卷式"竞争依赖"价格战"和盲目跟 ...