Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is at a critical juncture, with the long-term debt cycle under pressure and a restructuring of global order and reserve assets expected to influence market trends in 2026 [1][2]. Macro Context - The current global economy is at the tail end of a long-term debt cycle, with government debt as a percentage of GDP at historically high levels and diminishing marginal effects of traditional monetary policy [2][3]. - The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar faces challenges, with international trade shifting from globalization to regionalization and increased protectionism of key technologies and resources [2]. Commodity Market Outlook - The downward pressure on the commodity market is expected to ease, with prices gradually rising, although sector differentiation will continue [2][4]. - Gold is anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating pattern due to ongoing diversified purchases by central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - Copper and aluminum are seen as leading indicators of structural market trends, driven by demand from infrastructure upgrades related to electric grids and new energy vehicles [4]. - The oversupply pressure in the oil market is gradually being digested, with OPEC's production increase slowing down, which may push oil prices higher [4]. Agricultural Products - Agricultural prices are likely to continue a pattern of oscillation, with current prices at low levels and cost support gradually emerging [5]. A-Share Market - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "low volatility, slow bull" characteristic in 2026, with opportunities arising from three main lines: upstream resource companies benefiting from fiscal expansion, companies achieving breakthroughs in key technologies, and undervalued defensive sectors [6][8]. Investment Strategy - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 should focus on flexibility and structure, moving from traditional balanced approaches to more aggressive strategies [10]. - Long-term opportunities in the commodity market, particularly in gold, copper, and aluminum, are highlighted as core investment options [10]. Differentiated Investment Strategies - Conservative investors should focus on high-grade bonds, deposits, and money market funds, with limited exposure to equities and commodities [12]. - Moderate investors are advised to balance their portfolios with a tilt towards equities, while aggressive investors should increase their allocations to stocks and commodities [12].

编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构研究大咖及相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投 资赛道。 2026年，全球金融市场站在新旧周期交替的关键路口——长期债务周期尾部承压，全球秩序与储备资产重构，政策转向发力。多重变量交织下，投资者该 如何布局？ 近日，期货日报记者就马年宏观格局、各类资产走势及差异化配置策略采访了平安期货研究所所长李晨阳，为投资者拆解周期密码、布局方向。 宏观底色：债务尾部与秩序重构 理解马年资产配置，必须先看清当下市场所处的周期位置。李晨阳表示，当前全球处于长期债务周期尾部，政府债务占GDP的比重普遍处于历史高位，传 统货币政策边际效应递减。与此同时，美元主导的国际货币体系正面临多元挑战，国际贸易从全球化走向区域化，关键技术和资源品保护加剧。 "全球秩序与储备资产的重构将是马年金融市场走势的关键背景。"他说。 李晨阳表示，2026年欧美央行仍处于降息周期，且通胀尚未形成明显的上行压力。经济有韧性，货币与财政政策相对友好，这种组合对权益市场和大宗商 品市场形成支撑。 大宗商品市场：下行压力缓解，价格重心或逐步上移 在李晨阳看来，马 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间2026年2月17日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌2.33%报4896.10 美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌3.93%报73.55美元/盎司。 ...

与此同时，美股三大指数 期货 也全线跳水。纳指跌0.8%，日经225指数跌0.5%，富时中国A50 期货 指 数跌超0.7%。 【导读】金银、股市全线跳水 中国基金报记者泰勒 大家好啊，大年初一，海外市场不平静，一起看看发生了什么事情。 2月17日，现货黄金、白银价格盘中突然大幅跳水，白银一度暴跌约5%，随后跌幅收窄，现货黄金跌破 4900美元/盎司。 KCM Trade市场分析师蒂姆·沃特勒表示："由于多个市场假期以及缺乏新的利好因素，今日市场呈现防 御态势。交易员们正密切关注美伊之间的动态，伊朗近期的军事演习足以抑制市场风险偏好。" 周一，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐在日内瓦与联合国核监督机构负责人举行了会谈，随后将与美国展开 第二轮核谈判。特朗普此前曾威胁称，除非伊朗同意达成协议以限制其核计划来换取制裁减免，否则将 对其进行打击。 分析师称，由于美国和亚洲假期导致流动性减少，周二的市场走势可能难以作为参考，但仍在场内的投 资者即便表现最好，也显得情绪谨慎。随着贵金属价格走低，有迹象表明，1月下旬金银随股市一同崩 盘造成的心理创伤依然挥之不去。 （文章来源：中国基金报） ...

2月16日，现货钯金突破1700美元/盎司整数关口，日内涨幅达1.56%。此后涨势进一步扩大，据东方财 富Choice数据，现货钯金当日上涨逾3%，升至1741.7美元/盎司。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 南华期货在2月11日发布的研报中指出："铂钯近期波动核心承接贵金属板块情绪传导，走势与白银高度 相似，宏观因素扰动下银铂钯共振显著。"该研报同时提到，特朗普拟推出120亿美元"金库计划"，构建 关键矿产战略储备与优惠贸易区，拟设价格下限并以关税等边境措施护航。南华期货在研报中认 为："中长期来看，铂钯牛市基础仍存。2026年上半年美联储预计维持宽松基调，央行购金、避险及投 资需求将持续推升贵金属价格中枢。" 钯金主要应用于汽车尾气催化转化器制造，在全球汽车排放标准趋严的背景下，其工业需求保持刚性。 与此同时，贸易政策的不确定性正在重塑贵金属市场的供需预期，钯金后续走势仍值得持续关注。 近期钯金价格波动显著加剧。2月13日，钯金期货盘中一度大跌6%，现货钯金随后快速反弹，当日涨幅 达4%，报1680.91美元/盎司。2月14日，现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau has imposed corrective measures on Yong'an Futures Co., Ltd. due to violations related to compliance management and risk control systems [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Yong'an Futures has been ordered to rectify its compliance management, risk management, and internal control systems, which were found lacking [4]. - The regulatory authority has issued warning letters to three executives: Ma Zhiwei, Huang Zhiming, and Ge Guodong, holding them responsible for the violations [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Yong'an Futures, known as the "King of Futures" in the industry, reported a revenue of 8.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 55.26% year-on-year [17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 475 million yuan, an increase of 13.31% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 475 million yuan, up by 15.35% [17][19]. - In the third quarter alone, the company generated a revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, down 57.36% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 173.39% to 305 million yuan [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau has issued administrative regulatory measures against Everbright Futures Co., Ltd. for compliance and risk management failures [1] Group 1: Regulatory Findings - Everbright Futures Co., Ltd. failed to establish and continuously improve a compliance management, risk management, and internal control system covering its subsidiaries and business [1] - The company did not effectively implement relevant compliance management, risk management, and internal control requirements, violating the provisions of the "Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies" [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau has decided to impose corrective administrative measures on Everbright Futures Co., Ltd. [1] - The violations will be recorded in the integrity archives of the securities and futures market [1]

黄金、白银，又跳水了！ 2月16日，现货黄金、白银盘中再度下探。 现货黄金盘中跌超1%，跌破4990美元/盎司，失守5000美元/盎司的压力位。 | 〈 | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 4996.880 | 昨结 | | 5042.205 | 开盘 | 5028.944 | | | -45.325 | 0.00 -0.90% | 总量(kg) | | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5053.110 | 持 仓 | | 0 外 盟 | | o | | 最低价 | 4988.700 | 增 仓 | | 0 内 盘 | | o | | સ્ત્ર સ્વ | 五日 日K | | | 月K 更多 | | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价: -- 盘口 | | | | 5095.710 | | | | 1.06% | 卖1 4997.180 0 | | | | | | | | 买1 4996.880 0 | | | | | | | 11:03 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：情报员 国家知识产权局信息显示，大有期货有限公司申请一项名为"一种分布式并行蒙特卡洛金融风险评估方 法及系统"的专利，公开号CN121526812A，申请日期为2025年12月。 专利摘要显示，本发明涉及量化金融分布式计算技术领域，公开了一种分布式并行蒙特卡洛金融风险评 估方法及系统，其中一种分布式并行蒙特卡洛金融风险评估方法，包括：分析任务依赖强度识别任务协 同组、统计数据访问拓扑特征计算缓存价值评分、根据访问模式确定最优缓存位置、监测任务迁移事件 执行缓存协同迁移、周期性重新评估基于缓冲机制动态调整缓存。本发明解决了传统缓存策略忽视任务 依赖空间局部性、未协同响应任务迁移的技术问题，实现了缓存数据布局与任务分布的智能协同优化。 天眼查资料显示，大有期货有限公司，成立于2003年，位于长沙市，是一家以从事资本市场服务为主的 企业。企业注册资本83000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，大有期货有限公司共对外投资了2家企 业，参与招投标项目183次，专利信息13条，此外企业还拥有行政许可2个。 ...

以上问题反映出公司内部控制存在缺陷、风险管理不到位，违反了《期货公司监督管理办法》（证监会 令第155号）第五十六条、第八十九条、第九十七条的规定。 依据《期货公司监督管理办法》（证监会令第155号）第一百零九条的规定，云南证监局决定对公司采 取出具警示函的行政监管措施，并记入证券期货市场诚信档案。 近日，中国证监会云南监管局公告，对云晨期货有限责任公司采取出具警示函措施的决定。 公告显示，经查，公司存在以下问题： 一、部分业务系统用户权限配置存在前后台用户权限未分离的情形； 二、信息技术部门组织结构不够完善，2024年2月至2025年5月期间技术部门人员未达到要求人数，未设 立内部审计岗位，个别人员存在岗位兼任情形； 三、对个别接入的外部信息系统未审慎开展合规评估、风险评估和技术系统测试。 据公司官网介绍，云晨期货有限责任公司创办于2002年3月，是中国铝业集团有限公司金融板块旗下的 期货公司，公司经营范围为"商品期货经纪、金融期货经纪"。公司注册资本金为3亿元，是大连商品交 易所、上海期货交易所、郑州商品交易所、广州期货交易所、上海国际能源交易中心会员，中国金融期 货交易所交易结算会员。在北京、上海、昆明 ...