"深入贯彻落实习近平总书记视察枣庄重要指示要求，如何创新推动石榴产业发展？""做优品牌、 提高品质、完善产业链，在释放石榴这一土特产的经济潜力中发挥了哪些作用？""结合榴园镇石榴产业 的蓬勃发展，您认为农村党员应如何推动本土特色产业发展？"这是围绕同一重大主题，省级、枣庄市 指导峄城区、榴园镇立足各自党员教育培训需求，开发的党员培训课程的思考题。 持续强化优质内容供给，山东从资源整合、渠道拓展、师资培育三方面入手，推动分级分类课程资 源直达基层、惠及党员。 宁津县柴胡店镇王世英村党支部书记陈绪勇不仅带领本村发展泥鳅养殖改善生活，还整合附近村庄 资源开展水产特色养殖实现共富。如今，他常常受邀向基层党员干部分享发展特色产业、强化党组织凝 聚力的实践经验与心得。 为进一步建强师资队伍、夯实教学支撑，山东重点从基层党组织书记、优秀党员、党代表、乡土人 才、选调生等群体中发掘培育本土师资，每年举办全省党员培训课程开发与师资队伍建设示范培训班， 每两年完成基层师资轮训，完善名师带徒、跟班听课等机制。2025年以来，省市县三级已开展师资培 训、备课说课等活动480余场次，为课程落地提供坚实人才保障。（记者 刘一颖 通讯员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. - The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance. [31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.40% decline, at 426.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.06 million barrels to 15.06 million barrels, a 0.43% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.07 million barrels to 8.43 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.40 million barrels to 24.66 million barrels, a 5.39% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 48.15 million barrels, a 2.57% decrease [8]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 38 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 25 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2148 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was reported at - 159 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The total basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 11 yuan/ton, reporting 1697 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been consolidating. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are at a low level, and the buying demand for winter storage is a bullish factor. The bulls believe in seasonal expectations and improved demand, while the bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 56 yuan, reporting 4652 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4400 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 252 (+ 26) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 129 (+ 1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period. The demand - side overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The factory inventory was 32.9 tons (- 1.6), and the social inventory was 105.7 tons (- 0.3) [12]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5394 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The basis was 98 yuan/ton, weakening by 67 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 129.12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated plant profit was - 406.75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.47 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%. The PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%, the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%, and the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6320 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The basis was 130 yuan/ton, strengthening by 96 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, a 0.92% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 tons, a 1.72 - ton increase from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 3.56 tons, a 0.20 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, narrowing by 9 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy**: Although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6213 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 62 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, a 1.66% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton increase from the previous week, the trader inventory was 19.83 tons, a 0.9 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the port inventory was 6.75 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 107 yuan/ton, narrowing by 90 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 208 yuan, reporting 7070 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars, reporting 866 dollars. The basis was - 28 yuan (unchanged), and the 3 - 5 spread was 54 yuan (+ 22). The PX operating rate in China was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, down 0.4%. In terms of plants, a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 55 - ton plant of South Korea's GS was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days of December were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 305 dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 dollars (+ 9) [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 134 yuan, reporting 4882 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 100 yuan, reporting 4750 yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 72 yuan (+ 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 91.2%, unchanged. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 tons, a 1.9 - ton decrease from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee fell 37 yuan to 130 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 3 yuan to 244 yuan [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan, reporting 3738 yuan. The East - China spot price fell 34 yuan, reporting 3633 yuan. The basis was - 16 yuan (+ 6), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 1). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, up 2%. The synthetic - gas - based operating rate was 75.5%, up 3.3%, and the ethylene - based operating rate was 70%, up 1.3%. In terms of plants, Zheng Dakai restarted, and a line of Yankuang was under maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 11.8 tons, and the East - China departure on December 18 was 0.86 tons. The port inventory was 84.4 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 834 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 964 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 29 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 570 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance [31].

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【中国前11个月轮胎出口量同比增长3.7%】据中国海关总署12月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前11个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达883万吨，同比增长3.7%； 出口金额为1537亿元，同比增长2.5%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达850万吨，同比增长3.5%；出口金额为1477亿元，同比增长2.3%。按条数计算，出 口量达64,321万条，同比增长3.8%。1-11月汽车轮胎出口量为751万吨，同比增长3.1%；出口金额为1266亿元，同比增长1.7%。 2. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Overseas raw material prices are high, supporting rubber prices, but China's natural rubber inventory continues to accumulate significantly, with notable inventory pressure and low market acceptance of high - priced rubber. Under the game between long and short positions, rubber prices are expected to show a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term [106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China's tire exports from January to November 2025 increased year - on - year, with the export volume of rubber tires reaching 8.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the export amount reaching 153.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In November, the output of rubber tire casings decreased year - on - year [5]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of tires in the United States increased year - on - year, but the import volume from China decreased [6]. - The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) approved an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote measures to stabilize rubber prices, aiming to digest 250,000 tons of rubber annually [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, domestic and foreign rubber prices fluctuated slightly, with RU slightly falling and NR, SGX TSR20, and JPX RSS3 slightly rising. As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2605 was 15,190 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%; the closing price of NR2605 was 12,390 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [9][11]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: Thailand's southern region has entered the rainy season with recent decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in the northeast has ended with relatively low temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [37][39]. - Raw material prices: The suspension of tapping in domestic production areas is accelerating, and overseas raw material prices are high due to the continuous tense geopolitical situation between Thailand and Cambodia [41]. - Export situation: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while exports to China increased month - on - month. Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month in November, and exports to China decreased significantly [61][64][67][73][75]. - Import situation: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and tire inventory continued to accumulate. In November, tire exports increased slightly month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales increased slightly month - on - month in October. Passenger car sales continued to grow in November, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. In November, the freight turnover of road transportation rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [85][90][91]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: As of December 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.1529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.50%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86% [101]. - Futures inventory: As of December 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 87,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.94%. The futures inventory of 20 - number rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [103]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Market outlook: The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. High overseas raw material prices support rubber prices, but China's large - scale inventory accumulation puts pressure on the market, resulting in low acceptance of high - priced rubber [106][107]. - Valuation: On Friday, the price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 2,830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 720 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton [108]. - Supply strategy: For the single - side strategy of RU, it is recommended to wait and see; for the inter - period strategy, a long - short spread between January and May contracts is suggested as the peak production period may put more pressure on the May contract; for the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to observe [109].

利比里亚《非洲首页报》12月18日报道：利比里亚橡胶出口商与小农近日集体反驳部分媒体的"偏 见性报道"，指责其成为外国橡胶巨头的"雇佣喉舌"，意图削弱本土经营者、巩固行业垄断。争议源于 一篇题为《利比里亚经济面临严重威胁》的报道，被批评片面渲染本土从业者的困境，却淡化如费尔斯 通等跨国企业的做法。业内指出，本土经营者正面临全球胶价波动（2025年末约1500美元/吨）、供应 链中断及生产成本上涨等多重压力，任何违法行为指控应通过调查与正当程序处理，而非通过煽动性报 道瓦解利比里亚企业。他们警告，若实施橡胶出口禁令，将导致本地市场过剩、收购价暴跌，重演 1970-80年代资源外流至外资低价收购站的历史，使约10万从业者（尤其是占出口量40%-50%的小农） 陷入贫困，并加剧外资主导的"经济再殖民化"。行业呼吁政府采取审慎行动：一方面需保护本土生产 者、调查有偏颇的媒体报道，另一方面应通过透明监管、扶持合作社及鼓励本地加工等措施平衡行业发 展。决策必须兼顾长远，切忌在这一年产值约1.5-2亿美元、关乎国家经济主权与乡村生计的支柱产业 中，因急切的短期监管手段而动摇国家的长期产业自主与民生根本。 （原标题：利比里亚 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 01 市场焦点 | 多方因素 | 空方因素 | | --- | --- | | 泰柬冲突影响供应预期，支撑海外端原料价格 | 天然橡胶库存去化有所不畅，小幅累库 | | 丁二烯库存压力有所缓解，支撑价格 | 顺丁橡胶产量高位，厂内库存去化不畅 | | | 轮胎库存去化不畅，拖累产能利用率 | 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶原料端价格稳中略偏强 ➢ 成本方面，12月18日，泰国地区胶水价格为55.8泰铢/千克，杯胶价格为51泰铢/千克，均较前期有所走强。国内海南 地区原料价格为13000元/吨。国内产区逐步停割胶价维持稳定，海外产区受泰国与柬埔寨边境紧张局势升级，引发了 市场对局部产区割胶作业及加工厂生产的担忧。尽管冲突区域并非核心产区，实际产量影响有限，但这一事件推动胶 价表现偏强，橡胶成本端存支撑。 数据分析 PART 03 天然橡胶整体小幅累库 基本面概况 本周天然橡胶盘面维持横盘震荡，合成橡胶表现 ...

12月19日，商务部发布2025年第81号公告，公布对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的 反倾销措施发起期终复审调查。 商务部公告2025年第81号 公布对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的反倾销措施发起期终复审调查 2020年12月18日，商务部发布2020年第60号公告，决定自2020年12月20日起，对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进 口三元乙丙橡胶征收反倾销税，税率为美国公司214.9%—222.0%，韩国公司12.5%—24.5%，欧盟公司14.7%— 31.7%，实施期限为5年。 根据商务部2021年第3号公告，2020年12月31日英国脱欧过渡期结束后，之前已对欧盟实施的贸易救济措施继 续适用于欧盟和英国，实施期限不变；该日期后对欧盟新发起的贸易救济调查及复审案件，不再将英国作为欧 盟成员国处理。 2025年10月17日，商务部收到中国石油天然气股份有限公司吉林石化分公司和上海中石化三井弹性体有限公司 （以下称申请人）代表国内三元乙丙橡胶产业提交的反倾销措施期终复审申请书。申请人主张，如果终止反倾 销措施，原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶对中国的倾销可能继续或再度发 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the raw material increased after the rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened beyond expectations, and the compression of production profit drove the spot market price up. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,250 to 11,000 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and the main sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton in total, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina Southwest increased by 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Most of the previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have gradually restarted, and the domestic production has increased. This week, the operation gradually resumed, but the flow of goods was average, the inventory of production enterprises increased, and the monthly plan on the spot side was gradually implemented, but the market transaction follow - up was average, and the inventory of trading enterprises also increased. With a large amount of circulating resources on the spot side and a high load of domestic production plants, the supply pressure remained high. In terms of demand, tire enterprises arranged production flexibly this week, some enterprises controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises was weak, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, the finished product inventory increased, and under the production and sales pressure, some enterprises had shutdown and production - limit phenomena [6]. - The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of raw materials increased after rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened, and the spot market price rose. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong continued to rise, and the ex - factory prices of major sales companies increased [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply pressure is high due to the restart of plants and increased inventory, while the demand is weak as tire enterprises face seasonal off - season and production and sales pressure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,650 and 11,400 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided other than the topic of "Position Analysis of the top 20 in cis - butadiene rubber" [11]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 19, the spread between contracts 2 and 3 of butadiene rubber was - 25 [16]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [19]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of December 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of December 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Prices of Naphtha and Ethylene**: As of December 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 534.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.87 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory of Butadiene**: As of December 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.55%, a decrease of 0.62% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 36,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [32]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: In November 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.26%, an increase of 5.57% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of December 18, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of December 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 34,010 tons, an increase of 2,060 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 27,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,410 tons, an increase of 960 tons from last week [42]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. Enterprises arranged production flexibly, and some controlled production, with the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises being weak [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [48]