一级发行如何？整体来看，2025 年以来城投债发行政策仍处于严监管态势 之下，未有大幅放松，仍以借新还旧为主。2025 年以来发行及偿还端较 2024 年同期均减少，净融资继续下滑，但下滑幅度不算大。 分省来看，截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，与历年同期相比：（1）12 省中 10 省 净融资回正；（2）山东、河南、江西、福建、上海等区域净融资较去年同 期下滑较多；（3）湖南区域仍有较大的净融资缺口。 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 低票息时代下的城投资产选择 上半年城投债市场表现如何？ 二级市场表现如何？2025 年以来城投债走势可大致分为 3 个阶段： （1）年初-3 月中旬：年初受春节前影响，资金面呈现紧平衡状态。春节 后，资金面紧张格局未扭转，短端利率受影响调整幅度较大，后传导至长 端，城投债收益率随之被动抬升，信用利差因利率上行被动走阔。（2）3 月中旬-4 月：3 月下旬，MLF 操作方式调整叠加央行净投放资金，资金 面边际宽松。4 月美国对中国加征"超预期关税"及中国反制措施引发市 场避险需求，推动利率下行，带动城投债收益率同步下行，信用利差也被 动收窄。（3）5 月以 ...

Core Insights - Yunnan has issued various special local bonds with different maturities and scales, indicating active financing efforts in infrastructure projects [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Yunnan issued a 30-year special local bond for toll roads with a scale of 2.00 billion and an interest rate of 2.05%, achieving a marginal multiple of 1.82, with an expected multiple of 2.00 [1] - A 7-year special local bond for urban renovation was issued with a scale of 1.10 billion and an interest rate of 1.64%, achieving a marginal multiple of 2.73, with an expected multiple of 1.65 [1] - A 10-year special local bond was issued with a scale of 17.04 billion and an interest rate of 1.70%, achieving a marginal multiple of 2.10, with an expected multiple of 1.74 [1] - Another 30-year special local bond was issued with a scale of 15.01 billion and an interest rate of 2.03%, achieving a marginal multiple of 1.64, with an expected multiple of 1.99 [1] - A 7-year special local bond was issued with a scale of 65.70 billion and an interest rate of 1.64%, achieving a marginal multiple of 2.00, with an expected multiple of 1.65 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The science and technology innovation bond (Sci - tech Bond) market is at the stage of policy support and market demand superposition. The launch of Sci - tech Bond ETF and the landing of risk - sharing tools will provide more diversified and stable funding sources for science and technology innovation enterprises and enrich investors' asset allocation options [3][12]. - From January to May, the national real estate market continued to adjust, with real estate development investment and sales declining year - on - year, and the market still at the bottoming stage [5][18]. - In the money market, the central bank conducted open - market operations, with net capital withdrawal last week, but carried out large - scale buy - out reverse repurchase operations to ensure a stable end - of - quarter capital situation. Interest rates showed a mixed trend [6][21]. - In the primary market of credit bonds, issuance cooled last week, with a decrease in the issuance scale. The average issuance interest rates of most bonds with different maturities and ratings increased. In the secondary market, trading activity increased, and bond yields generally declined [7][36]. Summary by Directory Market Dynamics - On June 18, 10 public fund companies submitted applications for the first batch of Sci - tech Bond ETF products, marking the product - based implementation stage of the bond market serving science and technology innovation. The Sci - tech Bond market is in a stage of policy support and market demand superposition, and the development of related innovative products will provide more diversified and stable funding sources for science and technology innovation enterprises [3]. - On June 18, the first batch of projects using Sci - tech Bond risk - sharing tools were launched. Five private equity investment institutions successfully issued Sci - tech Bonds with a total scale of 1.35 billion yuan. The mechanism design introduced multiple arrangements such as credit risk mitigation vouchers, guarantee enhancement, and cornerstone investment [4][14]. Macroeconomic Data - From January to May, real estate development investment totaled 3.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%, with the decline widening by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first four months. New commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points [5][18]. - Other macroeconomic data include GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate, official manufacturing PMI, social consumer goods retail year - on - year growth rate, etc. For example, in the first quarter of 2025, the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate was 5.40%, and in May 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.50% [19][20]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank conducted open - market operations and net withdrew 7.99 billion yuan. On June 16, the central bank carried out a 40 - billion - yuan 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation. Near the end of the quarter, the central bank carried out two buy - out reverse repurchase operations, totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, to ensure a stable end - of - quarter capital situation [6][21]. - The 14 - day and 21 - day pledged repurchase rates increased by 13bp and 3bp respectively, while the other term pledged repurchase rates decreased. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor both decreased compared to the previous week, and the spread between them narrowed to 4bp [6][21]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds cooled, with the issuance scale at 333.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.161 billion yuan compared to the previous period. The infrastructure investment and financing industry and industrial bonds both saw a decrease in issuance scale [7][25]. - In terms of net financing, most industries in industrial bonds showed net financing inflows. In terms of issuance costs, the average issuance interest rates of most bonds with different maturities and ratings increased by 2 - 40bp [7][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 1,023.5849 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume increased by 8.0377 billion yuan compared to the previous period, indicating increased trading activity [36]. - The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds generally declined. The credit spreads of 1 - year and 5 - year AAA - rated bonds widened by 1 - 8bp, while the other term spreads narrowed, with a change of no more than 10bp. The rating spreads fluctuated, with a change of no more than 5bp [36][43].

随着投资者持续消化与冲突相关的新闻，美国股市保持稳健。近期油价波动加剧，加上市场忧虑局势升 级，为国防概念股提供一定支持。不过，市场尚未反映长期冲突的风险。大宗商品价格上升可能会推高 多个行业的营运成本，导致短期利润率受压，而在以往的冲突中，投资者均对此情况高度敏感。 在轰炸事件后，新兴市场整体表现相对冷静，主要由于油价及美元走势平稳，两者向来是影响新兴市场 股票表现的关键因素。若事件能迅速化解，中东股市或会受惠上升。另持续关注中国的态度，目前其立 场仍属克制，但若采取更强硬的姿态，或进一步加剧中美紧张关系。从长远角度看，关注中国对中国台 湾省的政策走向。这次袭击事件可能会对短期行动起到阻吓作用，但若中东局势持续恶化，或令中国趁 美国专注中东局势时调整行动策略。目前，对市场维持审慎乐观，因为推动2025年新兴市场表现的主要 动力仍然存在。 思博瑞投资管理发文称，根据市场初步反应，伊以冲突事件对能源市场造成最大波动，尤其是石油市 场。相信由于伊朗有避免大规模战争的强烈动机，确保石油在波斯湾的输出，因此对全球整体影响仍会 较低。中东局势缓和或导致能源价格(包括石油及液化天然气)下降，较低的能源价格有助于抑制通胀， ...

Group 1 - The Barclays research team believes that emerging markets are impacted by US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and global economic slowdown, but these effects are offset by rising commodity export prices and renewed investor interest in emerging market assets for diversification [1] - The outlook for local and credit markets in emerging markets is expected to remain strong, with trends likely to continue [1] - The weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of the year is not seen as a negative factor for emerging market economies, and any trend towards diversifying away from dollar assets could further weaken the dollar and benefit emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is favorable for emerging market currencies due to the broad weakening of the US dollar and decreased market volatility, which particularly benefits arbitrage trading [2] - Investor enthusiasm for emerging market credit appears low, with recent inflows into emerging market bond funds concentrated in local currency funds, despite emerging market sovereign credit spreads showing resilience [2] - Emerging market sovereign credit spreads are only about 15 basis points above their lowest levels in years, indicating strong performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Despite the announcement of tariffs by the US in early April, emerging Asian markets have shown relatively robust export performance, attributed to trade front-loading effects, although this may vary by economy [3] - Core inflation in the region is showing signs of rising, while energy inflation remains low; however, geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices and sustained inflation [3] - The average CPI inflation forecast for the top ten emerging Asian economies for 2025 has decreased to 1.5%, down from 2.2% in 2024, indicating a potential for more cautious monetary policy amid moderate inflation data [3]

Group 1 - Guangdong issued 10-year general local bonds with a total scale of 18.96442 billion, at an issuance rate of 1.7500%, with a marginal multiple of 3.65 times, exceeding the expected multiple of 1.72 [1] - Guangdong issued another 10-year general local bonds with a total scale of 7.34279 billion, also at an issuance rate of 1.7500%, achieving a marginal multiple of 5.63 times, again surpassing the expected multiple of 1.72 [1] - Guangdong issued 20-year ordinary special local bonds with a total scale of 7.64973 billion, at an issuance rate of 2.0300%, with a marginal multiple of 1.16 times, below the expected multiple of 2.00 [1] - Guangdong issued an additional 20-year ordinary special local bond with a total scale of 892.32 million, at an issuance rate of 2.0300%, achieving a marginal multiple of 1.22 times, slightly below the expected multiple of 1.99 [1]

2025年4月，中国再次出手，抛售了82亿美元的美国国债，使其持仓骤降至7570亿美元，创下近15年来的新低。自2022年起，中国便开启了持续的减持模 式，连续18个月的抛售，累计甩掉了超过2800亿美元的美债。 长期以来，美国对中国采取了多方面的限制措施，从加征关税到技术封锁，再到在台湾问题上不断挑衅。 美国将经济手段政治化，而中国显然不会再甘愿 充当美国债务的"冤大头"。 更令人担忧的是，美国债务问题日益严峻。 2025年，联邦债务突破36.2万亿美元大关，平均每个美国人背负超过11万美元的债务。 仅2024年，美国用于支 付利息的支出就高达1.13万亿美元，这一数字甚至超过了其国防预算。 回顾2013年，中国曾持有高达1.32万亿美元的美债，而如今的持仓几乎腰斩。 这次大规模的减持行动，远非简单的投资策略调整，而是中国在中美博弈中精 准出击，直击美国经济软肋的关键一步。 美国政府每天需要支出30多亿美元来偿还利息。 更为棘手的是，到2026年底，将有9.3万亿美元的债务到期，需要以更高的利率进行再融资，这将进一步加 剧其财政负担。 市场也对美国债务问题表现出高度担忧。 2025年4月，10年期美债收益率 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the winning yield rate for the 7-year U.S. Treasury bond auction held on June 26 is 2.43%, a significant decrease from the previous value of 55.87% [1]

Core Insights - The auction for 7-year U.S. Treasury bonds held on June 26 resulted in a winning yield of 4.022%, a decrease from the previous yield of 4.19% [1] Group 1 - The winning yield of 4.022% indicates a decline in interest rates for 7-year Treasury bonds, which may reflect changing investor sentiment and market conditions [1] - The previous yield of 4.19% suggests that there has been a notable shift in the bond market, potentially influenced by economic indicators or Federal Reserve policies [1]

2/10年期德债收益率利差涨2.168个基点，报+74.135个基点。 周四（6月26日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨0.4个基点，报2.569%，"跳空低开"之后，全天持 续震荡上行，整体交投于2.533%-2.574%区间。 两年期德债收益率跌1.8个基点，报1.825%，日内交投于1.844%-1.812%区间，整体呈现出W形下跌；30 年期德债收益率涨1.8个基点，报3.070%。 ...