Group 1: Visa Waiver Agreement Impact - The mutual visa waiver agreement between China and Malaysia officially took effect on July 17, allowing citizens of both countries to enter each other's territory without a visa for up to 30 days, with no termination date set for the policy [3][5][15] - Following the agreement, there has been a significant increase in flight operations, with over 4,000 flights to Malaysia since 2025, marking a growth of over 40% [5][6] - The number of Malaysian travelers entering China through Shenzhen Airport has exceeded 148,000 since 2025, reflecting a nearly 60% year-on-year increase, making Malaysian nationals the largest group of foreign travelers at this airport [7][15] Group 2: Tourism Industry Response - Travel agencies in both countries are actively expanding their offerings, with a notable increase in demand for deep travel experiences and educational tours, particularly during the summer peak season [8][10] - Following the announcement of the visa waiver, travel agencies reported a 30% increase in transaction volume, with popular destinations experiencing supply shortages [12][10] - The demand for business travel has also surged, with multiple business delegations from Malaysia visiting China to explore investment opportunities [13][18] Group 3: Economic Cooperation Enhancement - The visa waiver is expected to stabilize business expectations and reduce costs for enterprises, facilitating more efficient cross-border cooperation [15][17] - Companies in Shenzhen have reported a significant reduction in order processing time, from an average of 2-3 months to 1-1.5 months, leading to a 30% increase in order conversion rates [18][21] - Chinese companies are more confident in expanding their operations in Malaysia, with one brand already establishing over 100 stores in the country since 2025 [23]

Group 1 - The Brazilian Foreign Minister stated that Brazil is currently awaiting a response from the United States regarding its trade proposals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's exports to the U.S. rebounded in June, indicating strong bilateral trade amid ongoing tariff negotiations between the two countries [1] Trade Performance - Swiss exports to the U.S. increased by 26.9% in June compared to May, after seasonal adjustments [1] - Imports from the U.S. saw a slight growth of 0.2% [1] Trade Agreement Negotiations - Switzerland is in negotiations with the U.S. to reach a trade agreement, with Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter stating that the two countries are "very close" to an agreement [1] - Reports suggest that the draft agreement includes guarantees to avoid tariffs on Swiss pharmaceutical exports [1] Political Context - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated to Switzerland that an agreement is imminent, but President Trump mentioned that global pharmaceutical tariffs could be implemented as early as August 1 [1] - Swiss left-wing lawmakers are calling for joint countermeasures with the EU in response to U.S. tariffs [1]

金十数据7月17日讯，印度在与美国进行贸易谈判时寻求比印尼和越南更低的关税，而特朗普则暗示将 达成"相当不错的协议"。据周四的一份报告称，一名印度官员表示，在与特朗普政府进行的贸易谈判 中，印度希望达成一项比印尼和越南更有利的税率协议。 特朗普周二表示，将对印尼征收19%的关 税，并可实现美国商品对印尼零关税出口。这一税率较4月宣布的32%有所下调。越南的关税税率则降 至20%。外媒此前报道称，美国和印度正致力于达成一项协议，将拟议税率降至20%以下。印度相信， 其与美国的贸易协议将优于印尼和越南，因为美国并不视其为像其他东南亚国家那样的转运枢纽。 印度寻求与美达成比印尼和越南更低的关税协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's Finance Minister is set to meet with U.S. trade officials to propose new measures aimed at avoiding a potential 36% tariff threatened by President Trump [1] Group 1 - The meeting will involve discussions on revised proposals, including further tariff reductions on U.S. products [1] - The Thai Commerce Minister indicated that the Finance Minister will hold a video conference with U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [1]

据央视新闻，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自欧盟的输美产 品征收30%的关税。对此，越来越多的欧盟成员国希望在8月1日前无法达成可接受协议的情况下，启动 该集团最强有力的贸易工具——反胁迫工具进行反击。 "这些是具有挑战性的复杂谈判，我们作为欧盟仍专注于实质性讨论。" "在这场谈判中，你需要展示力量、武力、团结和决心。" 风险提示及免责条款 法国主导推动，欧盟委员会持谨慎立场 "反胁迫工具是为非常情况而设，我们还没到那个地步。" 以法国为首的半数以上欧盟国家支持动用这一工具，该工具赋予欧盟官员广泛的报复权力，包括对美国 科技巨头征收新税、限制美国在欧投资，以及限制美国企业进入欧盟市场。据媒体援引知情人士透露， 贸易部长们在周一的会议上讨论了这一问题。 美欧之间的谈判仍在继续。欧盟专员Michael McGrath周三对媒体表示，预计8月1日前能达成协议，尽 管布鲁塞尔对收到特朗普的信件"感到惊讶和失望"。McGrath称： 法国欧洲事务部长Benjamin Haddad表示，欧盟的回应应包括使用这一工具的选项。他在接受采访时 称： 反胁迫工具作为欧盟贸易防线的"重器" ...

Group 1 - The international silver market is experiencing a fluctuating trend, with the price at $37.83 per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% increase as investors await the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) announcement for further Federal Reserve cues [1] - The U.S. has announced reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, adding uncertainty to global trade dynamics [3] - The U.S. inflation rate has surged to 2.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices of imported goods, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September [3] Group 2 - Silver prices opened at $38.094, peaked at $38.374, and closed at $37.685, indicating a bearish trend with potential targets at $37.8 and $37.5, and further support at $37.30-$37.50 [4] - The silver market is under pressure as the gold-silver ratio rises above 88.00, with a significant support level at $37.30; a break below this level could lead to testing the next support at $35.65-$35.85 [4]

Core Insights - WTO economists predict a slowdown in global goods trade growth later this year due to ample inventories and increased tariffs impacting import demand [1][7] - In the first quarter of 2025, global goods trade volume increased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, driven by a surge in North American imports in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The growth in trade volume exceeded WTO's earlier forecast of a 0.2% decline for the year [3] Trade Volume and Value - The dollar value of global goods trade, adjusted for seasonality, increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong trade volume growth despite a decline in prices [3] - The first quarter saw significant growth in specific categories: office and telecommunications equipment (up 16%), chemicals (up 12%), and clothing (up 7%) [6] Regional Performance - North America led with a 13.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in imports, followed by Africa (5.1%), South America and Central America & Caribbean (3.6%), the Middle East (3.0%), Europe (1.3%), and Asia (1.1%) [4] - In terms of exports, the Middle East recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth at 6.3%, followed by Asia (5.6%) and South America (3.2%) [5] Future Trends - Data indicates that after a surge in the first quarter, import demand is beginning to slow down, with U.S. imports growing only 1% in the first two months of the second quarter after a 25% increase in the first quarter [7][8] - The World Bank reports a significant downward adjustment in trade growth forecasts for developed economies, with expected growth for 2025 being about half of earlier predictions [8]

特朗普还计划将所有国际事务与关税挂钩。他曾以巴西政府对前总统博索纳罗的"政治迫害"为由，宣布将对巴西进口商品的关税从10%提高至50%。面对美 国日益强硬的立场，巴西总统卢拉并未屈服，而是采取了审慎而坚定的态度，指示其内阁团队，在与美国的谈判中必须保持坚定立场，不能被特朗普的压力 所击倒。卢拉还指出，美国对巴西长期存在贸易顺差，因此对巴西加征关税不仅会影响美国对巴西的出口，还可能导致美国消费者承担更高的成本，显示出 特朗普此举的经济意义并不大。 o 0 随着"对等关税"措施的实施期限到来，美国特朗普政府不仅宣布了推迟期限的决定，还向170多个国家发送了关税通知，单方面宣布对这些国家输往美国的 商品实行阶梯式加征关税的政策，绕过了传统的谈判机制，直接发布了最后通牒。此前，美国曾为谈判提供了一定的空间，尽管如此，实际效果并不理想， 最终仅与英国达成了协议。 这一次，美国选择跳过谈判的过程，直接采取行动，且覆盖的范围极为广泛。在8日，美国向12个国家发出了关税通知函，其中部分商品的关税税率高达 60%至100%。随后，美国又宣布了14国的名单，并对其中的日本和韩国征收25%的关税，对柬埔寨和泰国的关税为36%，对老 ...

马科斯无论如何也没有想到，菲律宾替美国鞍前马后，竟然也会有今天，被特朗普当做"软柿子"捏。 日前，美总统特朗普公布第二批关税名单，继第一批的14国之后，又对8国宣布征税，其中菲律宾"光荣上榜"，将面临美国20%的对等关税，高于4月2日最 初宣布的17%。 特朗普在写给马科斯的信中，还劝菲律宾政府包容理解，这已经是美国做出的最大让步了，按照美菲的贸易逆差，这个数字原本应该更高，言外之意就是菲 律宾受了惩罚，马科斯应该对他感恩戴德。 那么，如何看待美国的关税大棒砸向菲律宾呢？ 首先，其实早在特朗普挑起全球关税战的一开始，美国的眼里就没有盟友可言，相反越是盟友宰得越狠，最典型的就是加拿大和欧盟，如今美国的"屠刀"砍 向菲律宾，完全在预料之内。 本质上讲，美国的对等关税其实十分随意，保持"恃强凌弱"的加税原则，同时非常关注转口贸易。 对此，马科斯政府倒是表现得比较平静，只是表示将与美方展开进一步谈判，正在安排人员访美，倒是拜登政府时期的美国官员，表现得比菲律宾还着急， 称此举将削弱美国对盟友的公信力，质问特朗普还想不想跟中国竞争。 举例来讲，美国一开始将中国关税加到了超过100%，这是为了迫使中国接受美国主导的贸易规 ...