证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...

Major Events - Fenglong Co., Ltd. announced that Yubisheng committed not to inject assets into the company within 36 months after the acquisition, and the company's stock will resume trading on February 2, 2026 [1] - Jiamei Packaging's stock will resume trading on February 2, 2026, after a 408.11% price increase during the suspension period, with expected net profit for 2025 projected to decline by 53.38% to 43.02% year-on-year [2] - Hongbaoli clarified that it does not produce propylene oxide products, and its subsidiary's project has entered the pre-production preparation stage [3] Tax Policy Impact - China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile announced that the VAT rate for certain telecom services will increase from 6% to 9% starting January 1, 2026, which will impact their revenues and profits [4][5][6][7] Investment and Financing - Aoshikang plans to invest 1.82 billion yuan in a high-end printed circuit board project, with a total investment of 1.82 billion yuan expected to enhance product competitiveness [8] - Huada Zhizao intends to acquire 100% equity of two companies for a total price of 365.7 million yuan, aiming to integrate advanced technology platforms [8] - Yanzhou Coal Mining announced the public transfer of 100% equity of its subsidiary at a base price of 670 million yuan, which may significantly impact its 2026 net profit [9] Operational Updates - Tiandi Online confirmed that its operations are normal and there are no undisclosed significant matters, despite a stock price fluctuation exceeding 20% [10] - Hunan Gold reported abnormal stock trading and is in the process of acquiring two companies, pending multiple approvals [11] - ST United's review of its acquisition proposal has been suspended due to outdated financial documents [12][13] - Fushikong's actual controller has been placed under detention, but the company's operations remain normal [14] Performance Reports - Leshan Electric Power reported a 6.24% increase in revenue for 2025, with net profit growing by 3.68% [15] - Sairisi's January car sales reached 45,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 104.85% [16] Contracts and Agreements - Jerry Holdings signed a contract worth approximately 1.82 billion yuan for gas turbine generator sets for a data center [17] - Fulongma pre-won four sanitation service projects in January, with a total first-year service fee of 83.54 million yuan [18] Share Buybacks - GoerTek increased its share buyback fund to between 1 billion and 1.5 billion yuan, having already repurchased shares worth 950 million yuan [19] - Quzhou Dongfeng's controlling shareholder proposed a share buyback of 50 million to 100 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans [20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating a potential increase in investment opportunities due to the expansion of the Agent ecosystem and the rising demand for CPU and storage solutions [4][6]. Core Insights - The Agent ecosystem is rapidly expanding, with companies like Anthropic significantly increasing their revenue forecasts, expecting sales to grow fourfold to $18 billion this year and $55 billion next year [11][12]. - The introduction of advanced models like K2.5 allows for the dynamic allocation of tasks among multiple agents, enhancing efficiency in handling complex tasks [12]. - The demand for CPU is expected to surge due to the operational requirements of Agent systems, which necessitate high-performance CPUs for logic orchestration and memory management [16]. - Storage needs are also increasing as Agents require substantial memory and context caching, leading to a growing market for SSDs and other storage solutions [31]. Summary by Sections 1. Expansion of the Agent Ecosystem - Recent advancements in the global Agent ecosystem highlight significant innovations, with Anthropic's revenue projections reflecting a strong market position and growth potential [11][12]. - The K2.5 model's ability to create a team of agents for task execution showcases the shift towards more sophisticated AI applications [12][14]. 2. Rigid Demand for CPUs Driven by Agents - The complexity of Agent workflows increases the operational burden on CPUs, necessitating enhanced processing capabilities to manage multiple tasks and context switching [16]. - The need for KV Cache Offloading to alleviate GPU memory constraints further emphasizes the critical role of CPUs in modern AI applications [16][20]. 3. Growing Storage Demand Driven by Agents - The execution of Agent tasks requires significant memory resources, leading to a heightened demand for storage solutions, particularly SSDs [31][40]. - Companies like Seagate and SanDisk are reporting substantial revenue growth, indicating a robust market for storage solutions driven by AI workloads [40][41]. 4. Related Companies - Key players in the overseas computing/storage sector include companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yi Sheng, and Micron, while domestic players include Cambrian, Huafeng Technology, and China Longhua [4][42].

2026 年 2 月 1 日 春季行情有望延续 投 资 2026 年 2 月份投资策略报告 投资要点： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 邮箱：zenghao@dgzq.com.cn 上证指数 4117.95 深证成指 14205.89 | 涨跌幅 3.76% 5.03% 证 券 研 究 | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | | 沪深 300 4706.34 | 1.65% | | 创业板指 3346.36 | 4.47% | | 北证 50 1531.55 | 6.33% | | 科创 50 1509.40 | 12.29% | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 上证指数月线走势 | 报 | | 告 | | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind | | 上证指数月线走势 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 月度策略/A 股市场 分析师：费小平 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind SAC 执业证 ...

Group 1 - February macro outlook indicates a favorable macro environment for equity markets, with expectations of strong economic and credit data at the beginning of the year [7][9] - The strategy outlook suggests a transition in market styles, with a focus on growth "rest" and a continued bullish stance while adjusting portfolio structures [9][10] - The quantitative strategy emphasizes investing in small-cap stocks and taking long positions before the Spring Festival [10] Group 2 - The February gold stock selection includes companies from various sectors: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit, Shengkong Co. - Consumer Electronics: Baiwei Storage - Computing: Yunsai Zhiliang - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Non-ferrous Metals: Shengtun Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum - Machinery: Zhonglian Heavy Industry - Coal: Huaibei Mining - Non-bank Financials: Dongfang Securities [12][14] - The rationale for selected stocks includes: - Shiyun Circuit is expected to benefit from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, potentially leading to significant growth [13] - Shengkong Co. is positioned to gain from the semiconductor cycle, with demand driven by AI and storage needs [17] - Baiwei Storage is set to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with a focus on domestic market share growth [20] - Yunsai Zhiliang is anticipated to see increased demand for cloud services and IDC, driven by AI advancements [22] - Kexin Innovation Source is expected to achieve breakthroughs in the AI liquid cooling market, enhancing revenue and profitability [26] - Shengtun Mining is projected to improve profitability through copper price increases and strategic acquisitions [31] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to benefit from increased copper and cobalt production, alongside new gold mining projects [35] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry is positioned for growth through diversification in machinery sectors and global expansion [40] - Huaibei Mining is highlighted for its high elasticity in coking coal, with price improvements expected in 2026 [46] - Dongfang Securities is set to benefit from regulatory support and potential mergers, enhancing its market position [49]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to enter a strong seasonal rally phase following the release of annual report forecasts, with a high probability of small-cap stocks outperforming during this period [3][18]. - In 2025, the proportion of companies with low expectations and those forecasting losses or negative growth has reached new highs compared to previous years, indicating significant pressure on annual report forecasts [8][10]. - Historical data shows that the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions is characterized by a strong seasonal effect, with small-cap indices showing a 100% probability of rising during this time [19]. Group 2 - The report outlines four reversal strategies based on the operational positions of various industries as of Q3 2025, focusing on identifying sectors that may validate recovery trends in Q4 [21]. - Reversal Strategy 1 highlights industries that have already shown profit inflection points in Q3 2025, particularly in AI and energy storage, with expectations for continued recovery in lithium battery materials and storage sectors [32][35]. - Reversal Strategy 2 focuses on the computer sector, which may see profit inflection points in Q4 2025 due to prior cost and personnel reductions, indicating a potential supply clearing and demand improvement [38]. - Reversal Strategy 3 examines industries under pressure but showing signs of demand-side improvement, particularly in the U.S. manufacturing export chain, which is expected to face challenges in Q4 due to currency appreciation and tariffs [45][48]. Group 3 - The report identifies high-growth sectors that remain undervalued, including overseas computing power, domestic computing power, and offshore wind energy, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas following the annual report forecast phase [52][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. earnings reports for insights into overseas demand trends, which could impact A-share valuations [59].

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for February 2026 [6]. Core Insights - The report identifies several companies across different segments of the technology industry, including electronics, communications, computing, and media, suggesting a diversified investment approach [6]. - Key companies recommended include: - Electronics: Dongshan Precision, Lanke Technology - Communications: Wolong Materials, Haige Communications - Computing: Zhongkong Technology, Haiguang Information - Media: Kaiying Network, Giant Network [6]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Dongshan Precision**: Positioned for growth due to AI technology advancements, with a focus on optical communication and PCB sectors. The acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics enhances its market position [9]. - **Lanke Technology**: Expected to benefit from the growth in AI servers and memory interface chips, with a projected increase in DDR5 penetration rates [10]. Communications - **Wolong Materials**: Strong in traditional materials and expanding into new energy products, with significant profit growth expected from 2025 to 2027 [10]. - **Haige Communications**: Focused on commercial aerospace and satellite communication, with anticipated profit recovery post-2025 [10]. Computing - **Zhongkong Technology**: Emphasizes industrial AI transformation, leveraging its self-developed industrial model TPT to enhance customer ROI and operational efficiency [11]. - **Haiguang Information**: A leader in high-end CPUs and DCUs, expected to see significant growth driven by domestic demand for AI computing [12]. Media - **Kaiying Network**: Anticipates new game launches in 2026, with a strong pipeline of products expected to drive revenue growth [13]. - **Giant Network**: Positive performance from existing games and new releases, with ongoing AI integration in gaming expected to enhance user engagement [13]. Financial Projections - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the recommended companies, indicating expected growth in profitability from 2024 to 2027 [14].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Price-Volume Data Modeling - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages convolutional neural networks to analyze standardized graphical representations of price-volume data, aiming to predict future price trends and map learned features to industry thematic indices[79][81] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardize price-volume data into graphical formats for each stock within a specific time window[79] - Apply convolutional neural networks to extract features from these graphical representations[79] - Map the extracted features to thematic industry indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, and others[81] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry themes based on price-volume data and provides actionable insights for sector allocation[79][81] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CNN Model - **Thematic Indices Configured**: - CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (h11057.CSI)[81] - CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813.CSI)[81] - CNI Oil & Gas Index (399439.SZ)[81] - CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index (931248.CSI)[81] - CNI Nonferrous Metals Index (399395.SZ)[81]

Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to maintain stability and has further upward potential, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended, particularly focusing on technology represented by AI applications and traditional assets like liquor and real estate[1] - Since December 17, 2025, the A-share spring market has gradually unfolded, with significant contributions from broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds[1] - The cumulative excess returns of growth and cyclical sectors have recently declined, while the negative excess returns of financial and consumer sectors have significantly recovered[1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, during spring market periods, both growth and value styles have performed well, with average maximum gains of 24.0% for growth and 23.5% for value since 2005[2] - The current market structure is showing signs of convergence towards balance as the spring market progresses into its later stages, consistent with historical patterns observed in previous bull markets[2] - The A-share industry rotation strength was at a historical low of 18% as of January 23, indicating a lack of significant rotation, but this metric has recently shown signs of recovery[1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current A-share index has a potential upside of approximately 20%, while the maximum increase since December 17, 2025, has only been 9.8%, indicating room for growth[3] - Continued macroeconomic policy support is expected to provide a fundamental basis for market growth, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market as announced by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development[3] - The upcoming bull market in 2026 is anticipated to enter its later stages, driven by the recovery of macro and micro fundamentals and increased participation from retail investors[3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume-based timing signals to assess market sentiment and provide trading signals[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the volume timing signals of major broad-based indices - Signals are categorized as "cautious" or "optimistic" based on volume trends - As of January 30, 2026, all major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward approach to gauge market sentiment but may lack granularity in capturing nuanced market dynamics[23][24] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 Index over a specific period[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - The indicator is calculated as: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages with different window periods (N1 = 50, N2 = 35) to create a "fast line" and a "slow line" - A buy signal is generated when the fast line exceeds the slow line, and a neutral signal is generated when the fast line falls below the slow line[26][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator is effective in capturing upward market opportunities but may fail to predict downturns accurately. It also tends to miss gains during prolonged market exuberance[25] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index and generate trading signals[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 Index closing price with parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 - Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds: - If the price exceeds more than five moving averages, the sentiment is bullish - Generate a buy signal when the current price exceeds five moving averages[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear framework for trend analysis but may oversimplify complex market dynamics[36] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Model - All major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals as of January 30, 2026[24] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 N-day upward stock proportion indicator was above 60% as of January 30, 2026, indicating high market sentiment[25] - The fast line was above the slow line, suggesting a bullish outlook for the CSI 300 Index[26] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 Index was in a "sentiment prosperity zone" as of January 30, 2026, indicating a bullish sentiment[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to assess the Alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures short-term Alpha opportunities but may not fully reflect long-term trends[37] 2. Factor Name: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituents over time to assess the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides insights into market stability but may be less effective in highly volatile markets[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-sectional Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.14%, in the 69.55th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.45%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.61%, in the 66.93rd percentile of the past two years[38] 2. Time-series Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 0.96%, in the 57.20th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.22%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.17%, in the 64.94th percentile of the past two years[41]