Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance. The aluminum ingot price is expected to experience a short - term weak callback, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. The total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during this period. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5th, most will stop in mid - January, and a few after January 20th. The daily output is expected to be affected by 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center continues to shift downward. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum was due to the selling of precious metals, triggering risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of loose liquidity was disappointed, and funds fled from risk assets such as commodities. The previous large increase in the non - ferrous metal sector led to profit - taking, intensifying the downward pressure on prices [1] - In January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. In February, it is expected to decrease month - on - month due to fewer natural days. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to be put into production stably [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand for raw materials weakens, and the high aluminum price suppresses demand. The enterprise's willingness to cast ingots increases significantly, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to drop sharply [2] - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, showing characteristics of "accelerated seasonal decline and deepened high - price suppression effect". Most sub - sectors' operating rates decreased, and the industry is quickly entering the Spring Festival off - season [2] - As of January 29, the national social inventory of aluminum ingots has reached 782,000 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [2] Later Concerns - For finished products, the concerns are macro - policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum ingots, the concerns are changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [3]

上周，贵金属经历了一轮惊心动魄的"高台跳水"。1月30日，白银日内暴跌，创下1980年以来最大单日跌幅；黄金日内则跌超10%，同样刷新了过去几十年 的单日跌幅纪录。表面上看，金、银巨幅波动与美国总统特朗普在社交平台上的表态有关，他打算提名鹰派色彩浓厚的前美联储理事会成员凯文.沃什担任 下一任美联储主席。 消息一出，美元应声反弹，美债利率抬升，全球流动性收紧预期升温。而在超买环境下本就刚刚经历了加速上涨的贵金属，则是在短时间内巨幅回撤。笔者 认为，以上是市场典型的"膝跳反应"：交易员们正迅速定价一个更偏紧缩的货币政策未来。 然而，尽管在一夜之间资产价格的运行趋势似乎就发生了巨大偏移，但对于敏锐的投资者而言，市场情绪宣泄过后，此时可能恰恰是甄别优质资产、重新布 局有着长期趋势的品种的绝佳窗口。就拿同为金属，但又具备独特韧性与强大成长逻辑的铝来说，刚性供给约束与持续增长的需求形成的剪刀差有望进一步 扩大，而这也意味着二级市场以中国宏桥(01378)为代表的相关标的将持续受到资金青睐。更不消说，以交易视角看，本轮贵金属尤其是白银品种的调整， 抑或会促使里面的投机性资金转向电解铝等长期看成长性与确定性均更强的方向。 市 ...

消息一出，美元应声反弹，美债利率抬升，全球流动性收紧预期升温。而在超买环境下本就刚刚经历了加速上涨的贵金属，则是在短时间内巨幅回撤。笔者 认为，以上是市场典型的"膝跳反应"：交易员们正迅速定价一个更偏紧缩的货币政策未来。 然而，尽管在一夜之间资产价格的运行趋势似乎就发生了巨大偏移，但对于敏锐的投资者而言，市场情绪宣泄过后，此时可能恰恰是甄别优质资产、重新布 局有着长期趋势的品种的绝佳窗口。就拿同为金属，但又具备独特韧性与强大成长逻辑的铝来说，刚性供给约束与持续增长的需求形成的剪刀差有望进一步 扩大，而这也意味着二级市场以中国宏桥（01378）为代表的相关标的将持续受到资金青睐。更不消说，以交易视角看，本轮贵金属尤其是白银品种的调 整，抑或会促使里面的投机性资金转向电解铝等长期看成长性与确定性均更强的方向。 市场"膝跳反应"，电解铝料强者恒强 特朗普提名凯文·沃什执掌美联储引发一系列连锁反应，尽管一时间全球资本市场阴云密布，但智通财经认为愈是在这种时刻，理性的投资者更需要忽略宏 观"噪音"，而更加专注于中观视角下产业自身的基本面与投资逻辑。 1月最后一周，氧化铝价格下跌0.57%至2635元/吨；电解铝方面，沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum-based new materials industry in Guangyuan is projected to grow significantly, aiming for a total industrial output value exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2025, marking it as the first industry in Guangyuan to reach this milestone [4][5]. Industry Growth and Development Strategy - Guangyuan's aluminum-based new materials industry achieved an annual output value increase of over 25% in the past five years, with a target to accelerate towards a trillion-yuan industrial cluster [5][9]. - The city has implemented a "1345" development strategy, positioning the aluminum industry as a leading sector for industrial economic breakthroughs [5][6]. - By 2030, Guangyuan aims to establish an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 1 million tons, recycled aluminum capacity of 2.5 million tons, and aluminum processing capacity exceeding 5 million tons, with a total industrial output value reaching 120 billion yuan [6]. Infrastructure and Ecosystem Development - Guangyuan has built five specialized aluminum industry parks and a nearly 100,000 square meter incubation park, attracting numerous aluminum processing enterprises [9]. - The city has established a complete industrial ecosystem, including an aluminum trading center, processing center, and logistics center, with a cumulative trade volume exceeding 37 billion yuan [18][19]. Innovation and Green Development - Guangyuan's aluminum production is closely linked to clean energy, with significant reductions in carbon emissions achieved through the use of renewable energy sources [15][16]. - The city has implemented advanced recycling technologies, creating a closed-loop system for aluminum production that minimizes waste [12][16]. - Guangyuan aims to enhance its green manufacturing capabilities, with plans to develop zero-carbon parks and increase the proportion of green electricity consumption [16][20]. Collaborative and Supportive Framework - The local government has established a supportive policy framework, including the "Aluminum Ten Measures" and financial incentives to promote industry innovation and development [18][19]. - Guangyuan has formed partnerships with various organizations to enhance collaboration across the aluminum industry, fostering a synergistic environment for growth [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guinea's long - term contract price continues to decline in Q1, and the cost of alumina in February is continuously reduced. Before the Spring Festival, as downstream stocking nears its end and logistics comes to a halt, alumina inventory gradually accumulates. After the festival, alumina production cuts combined with the expectation of restarting production of electrolytic aluminum in the southwest may trigger a new round of raw material procurement by downstream enterprises. It is expected that alumina may show a trend of being weak first and then strong within the month. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic holiday acts as a buffer, and the sentiment of funds around the festival is expected to gradually subside. After the festival, it may enter the stage of verifying demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas geopolitical risks during the holiday and the extent of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. Whether the development of the US - Iran situation triggers new macro - pricing may determine the starting point of the aluminum price after adjustment [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In January, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 30th, the main contract closed at 2,768 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.4%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 24,560 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 7.1%. The aluminum alloy futures also fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 22,820 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 4.4% [5][6][7]. 3.2 Spread - In January, the alumina's discount widened from 46 yuan/ton to 1,439 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum's discount widened from 220 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in January was 88.82 million tons, with a production of 7.49 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 0.4% and a year - on - year decline of 1.2%. Manufacturers in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan all carried out maintenance and load - reduction operations. In January, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased to 44.1 million tons, with a production of 3.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The aluminum - water ratio dropped to 75.1% [3][5]. 3.4 Demand - High prices and environmental control diluted the stocking performance. In January, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 60.2%, a 0.85% decrease compared to December. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip increased by 1% to 65.3%, the operating rate of aluminum foil increased by 1.05% to 70.9%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 3.98% to 47.6%, the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 0.5% to 60.1%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.55% to 60.1%. The processing fees of aluminum rods decreased across the board by 50 - 350 yuan/ton, while the processing fees of aluminum poles remained stable in many places, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase in Henan [3][5]. 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory, in January, the alumina inventory increased by 15,300 tons to 135,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 87,000 tons to 217,000 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 498,000 tons. In terms of social inventory, the alumina monthly inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 227,000 tons; the aluminum ingot monthly inventory increased by 137,000 tons to 782,000 tons; the aluminum rod monthly inventory increased by 104,500 tons to 244,000 tons [3][5].

库存方面，当前铝库存水平高于近两年同期，持续累库对铝价上行形成了一定的压制。虽然目前库存水 平仍难形成明显压力，但就像一颗"定时炸弹"，随时可能对铝价产生更大的冲击。 短期"风雨飘摇"，中长期"曙光初现"？ "忽如一夜春风来，千树万树梨花开"，本应是充满生机与希望的时节，铝市却遭遇了一场"暴风雪"。 2026年2月2日，长江有色金属网数据显示，长江现货A00铝锭价格暴跌，单日大跌960元/吨至23700元/ 吨；沪期铝更是直接封停9.01%，报收于23035元/吨，宛如一颗重磅炸弹，在铝市场掀起了惊涛骇浪。 与此同时，国际市场也未能幸免，伦铝震荡触底，LME三个月北京时间15：20报于3024.5美元/吨，跌 109.5美元/吨，跌幅达3.49%。这突如其来的暴跌，究竟是何原因所致？未来铝价又将何去何从？ 宏观"风暴"来袭，铝价"摇摇欲坠" 本轮铝价跌停，海外宏观消息的冲击与资金的抛售成为了"罪魁祸首"。当地时间1月30日，美国总统特 朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接替即将在5月任期结束的杰罗姆·鲍威尔，出任下一任美联储主 席。这一消息犹如一颗投入平静湖面的石子，瞬间打破了市场的平静。 此前，市 ...

2月2日，中国铝业大宗交易成交130万股，成交额1653.6万元，占当日总成交额的0.16%，成交价12.72 元，较市场收盘价12.72元持平。 | 交易日期 证券简称 | | 壬券代码 三 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 026-02-02 | 中国铝补 | 601600 | 12.72 1653.6 器會是愛蘭與嘉豐 | 130 | 公開管家材料及 | | ка | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is bearish, leading to significant declines in precious metals and a broad drop in non-ferrous metals, with aluminum futures experiencing sharp declines [1] Macro Environment - Last Friday, Trump nominated Waller for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, perceived as hawkish by the market [1] - Unexpected rise in US PPI inflation data resulted in a drop in US stocks and the dollar experiencing its largest single-day increase since May of last year [1] Market Performance - The main aluminum futures contract closed at 23,035 yuan/ton, while the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,840 yuan/ton [1] - Precious metals, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced a sharp decline [1] - The non-ferrous sector collectively weakened [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum shows limited changes, with expectations for production increases in the future [1] - Demand is expected to weaken as the market enters a seasonal lull, compounded by the upcoming Spring Festival and high aluminum prices, which are suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The willingness of downstream enterprises to accept goods remains low, leading to a continuous decline in industry operating rates [1] - Recent accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventories has been noted [1] Industry Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that overall consumption is weakening, with reduced orders from end manufacturers as the Spring Festival approaches [1] - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is declining, and current aluminum prices remain high with low pre-holiday stocking demand [1] - Supply is expected to show slight growth, while the fundamentals are weakening and inventories are rising, although current inventory levels do not pose significant pressure [1] - The market is primarily influenced by macro factors, including the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical disturbances in Iran, leading to potential fluctuations in aluminum prices [1] - Short-term operations are advised to be cautious, while a long-term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [1]

免责声明 铝类产业日报 2026/2/2 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,035.00 | -1525.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,772.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -1,335.00 | -1395.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -162.00 | -4.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 238,005.00 | -46894.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 375,783.00 | -67133.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) ...

Group 1 - The company Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) has repurchased a total of 2,130,800 shares, which accounts for approximately 0.02% of its total share capital, as of January 31, 2026 [1] - The highest price for the repurchased shares was 7.41 CNY per share, while the lowest price was 6.59 CNY per share [1] - The total amount of funds spent on the share repurchase was 14,547,778 CNY, excluding transaction fees [1]