Group 1: Market Overview - HSBC reports that global aluminum prices are at multi-year highs and are expected to surpass historical records this year due to ongoing supply constraints [1] - The aluminum market is experiencing tight supply conditions, exacerbated by high capacity utilization and low inventory levels [1][2] - Structural supply limitations persist, particularly in China, where effective production capacity is capped at approximately 45 million tons, while overseas supply growth remains limited [2] Group 2: Price Trends - Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum prices have surpassed 23,000 RMB/ton, while London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices have risen above 3,000 USD/ton, reaching multi-year highs [2] - Despite these increases, prices have not yet returned to the historical peaks seen in 2021/22, indicating potential for further upward movement if supply conditions tighten [2] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand remains resilient, driven by strong consumption related to automotive lightweighting and electric vehicle (EV) needs, as well as stable investments in power grid infrastructure [3] - Solar energy demand is normalizing from recent peaks but continues to contribute significantly to aluminum demand [3] - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization after years of weakness, alleviating long-standing negative factors affecting aluminum market growth [3] Group 4: Company Outlook - HSBC has raised the target price for China Hongqiao to 41.00 HKD, up from 37.40 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on strong aluminum prices and effective cost management [3] - The company is expected to achieve further profit growth by Q4 2025, with a projected compound annual growth rate of approximately 21% in earnings from 2024 to 2027 [3]

汇丰表示，尽管行业轮动，需求仍保持韧性：在需求方面，受汽车轻量化和电池外围强劲需求推动，与 电动汽车相关的消费依然强劲。电网层面的投资则继续提供一个稳定的、为期多年期的需求来源。太阳 能需求正从近期峰值全面正常化，仍是铝需求的重要贡献者。建筑层面的需求在经历多年疲软后似乎正 在企稳，减轻了长期以来铝市场增长路径的不利因素。总体而言，该机构预计中国铝需求将保持强大韧 性，支撑更紧张的市场平衡态势。 汇丰分析师团队强调称，这种趋紧的平衡已转化为铝价格走势。上海期货交易所的铝价已突破23，000 元人民币/吨的重要关口，伦敦金属交易所LME铝价持续上行至突破3，000美元/吨，创下多年来的历史 最高点位，但尚未重返2021/22年所见的历史最高峰值(分别为大约24，000元人民币/吨以及>3，800美 元/吨)，这表明如果状况持续或进一步趋紧，仍然存在可观的上行潜力。 不过汇丰的分析师们表示，结构性供应限制依然存在：比如，在中国市场，产能上限继续限制增量级别 产出，尽管价格强劲，但汇丰认为产量大幅增长的空间很小。海外供应增长则相对温和，且日益面临中 断风险。South32旗下Mozal铝厂(约0.25百万吨)确认将 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased week - on - week. Both domestic and foreign ore prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The alumina market has a relatively stable supply, but the previous hype about enterprise restructuring has cooled down, and the alumina price has given back its previous gains. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and new production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad. The overall demand for aluminum is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises may continue to face pressure. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum may continue to adjust at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (2 - year, 10 - year, 10 - year minus 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (inter - bank middle rate, on - shore and off - shore spot rates) [6][7] 3.2 Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Due to the small proportion of circulating goods, the prices of domestic ore have stabilized after a general reduction, and it is not yet the next long - term contract negotiation cycle. Mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are still the core bottlenecks restricting the resumption of production of many mines, which are difficult to solve fundamentally in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $1.9 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.8 per dry ton. The shipping volume of Guinea ore has increased, the spot supply of imported ore has increased, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. In terms of long - term contracts, the first - quarter long - term contract signing work in the imported ore market has basically ended, and some contracts adopt the monthly pricing model [10] 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 9,625 tons (an increase of 40 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 84%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,627.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.1 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week. The national alumina supply is relatively stable. In late January, two alumina plants in Guangxi will conduct rotational maintenance on their roasting furnaces for about 12 days, and it is expected to affect a total output of about 30,000 tons during the maintenance period. The previous hype about the restructuring of alumina enterprises has cooled down, and combined with the correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, the alumina futures price has given back its previous gains [13] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.2 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 4,463.4 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). In terms of new production capacities, the first - phase 120,000 - ton production capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, the second - phase 80,000 - ton is still under construction and is expected to reach full production this year. The 350,000 - ton production capacity of Zha Aluminum will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Overseas, on January 15, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation and may reach full production in the second quarter. On January 11, the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia started production. On January 13, the Slovak government sought to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer [22] 3.5 Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and the LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate during the week [27][28][29][30] 3.6 Casting Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 58% week - on - week. Due to the continuous heavy - pollution weather, the regional production restriction policy has been repeatedly implemented, and the start - up rate of enterprises affected by environmental protection production restrictions in the early stage has not recovered. Under the high aluminum price limit, the orders of some recycled aluminum plants have decreased significantly, but downstream die - casting enterprises have been forced to replenish inventory to maintain normal production [33] 3.7 Downstream Start - up - Last week, the start - up rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 60.3%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to 47.9%. In the industrial profile sector, the start - up rate of sample enterprises in the photovoltaic profile segment has slightly increased driven by the component export tax - refund policy, while the automotive profile is relatively stable. In the construction profile sector, the start - up rate has continued to decline, and the downstream market is gradually entering the shutdown and holiday cycle. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 66%. The strong pre - Spring Festival stocking demand for can materials has driven the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip to recover. However, the processing fee space of mid - and low - end products has been squeezed by the aluminum price, and downstream enterprises have generally postponed their pre - holiday stocking plans and only maintained the on - demand procurement rhythm. The start - up rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remained stable at 59.6% week - on - week. After the New Year's Day holiday, enterprises concentrated on digesting the previously accumulated orders, and the grid order matching work was carried out in an orderly manner. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 58.6%. Although the aluminum price is high, approaching the Spring Festival, alloy enterprises have successively carried out pre - holiday inventory replenishment, promoting a slight increase in the start - up rate. Downstream enterprises that previously adopted a two - day weekend due to the high aluminum price have gradually resumed normal production rhythms, and some enterprises have begun to gradually accept the current aluminum price level and carry out pre - holiday inventory replenishment [45][49]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the aluminum industry Core Insights - Aluminum is the second most produced and consumed metal globally, following steel, due to its lightweight, corrosion resistance, high conductivity, and recyclability, making it a cost-effective and sustainable industrial metal [3] - The industry is characterized by a "cost + processing fee" business model, where profits are driven by the price difference between aluminum and overall production costs [16] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, which has led to a focus on cost and efficiency rather than expansion, positioning the country as the largest producer globally [24] Summary by Sections Industry Definition - Aluminum is a lightweight, corrosion-resistant metal with excellent conductivity and processing capabilities, achieving a balance between physical properties, economic costs, and sustainability [3] Main Processes - The primary production methods for aluminum include the Bayer process for alumina and the electrolytic method for primary aluminum [5][8] Key Policies - China's electrolytic aluminum policy includes a 45 million ton capacity ceiling to prevent disorderly expansion and promote green low-carbon transformation [9] - The industry is guided by policies aimed at high-quality development, resource recycling, and safety production standards [10] Industry Chain Analysis - The value in the aluminum industry is concentrated in the midstream electrolytic aluminum preparation segment, with significant upstream resource dependencies [11] Business Model - The core profit driver in the aluminum industry is the difference between aluminum prices and production costs, with varying profit drivers across different segments [16] Upstream Bauxite - China heavily relies on imported bauxite, with a 70% dependency, leading to supply chain vulnerabilities [20] Midstream Electrolytic Aluminum - China holds approximately 60% of global electrolytic aluminum production capacity, with strict policy constraints shaping the competitive landscape [24] Downstream Demand - Global aluminum demand is steadily increasing, with China being the largest consumer, accounting for 62.89% of global demand by 2024 [31] Future Opportunities - The aluminum industry is expected to benefit from policy support for green transformation, increased demand for aluminum in power grids, and a boom in recycled aluminum production [39][40][41][42]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the US inflation data in November met expectations, stabilizing market expectations for the Fed in 2026. Trump postponed new tariffs on key mineral imports, and NVIDIA significantly reduced copper usage in data centers, suppressing precious metal and copper prices and cooling the bullish sentiment in the metal sector. Domestically and in Indonesia, newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects continued to ramp up production. The consumption - side saw a slight increase in the开工 rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils, while other sectors remained relatively weak. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 736,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory rose by 36,500 tons to 206,000 tons compared to before the holiday. Overall, the bullish sentiment in the metal market subsided, SHFE aluminum positions declined slightly, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the fundamentals and continuous inventory accumulation, putting upward pressure on aluminum prices, leading to high - level volatile adjustments, which are expected to be limited in the medium - to - long - term due to supply constraints [3][8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, last week, the aluminum alloy开工 rate remained stable at 58%. Repeated environmental protection policies and high costs hindered enterprises' resumption of production, keeping the开工 rate low. On the consumption side, downstream customers still had a fear of high prices, but due to continuously high aluminum prices, they were forced to replenish stocks, resulting in a slight increase in recent inquiries. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 110 tons to 70,000 tons. In summary, the cost support for cast aluminum has slightly weakened, and there is increased pressure for price adjustment in the off - season of demand. However, the uncertainty of regional tax policies and environmental protection restrictions form a rigid constraint on the supply side, and macro - favorable factors provide support, so the adjustment range is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price decreased from 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, to 3,128.5 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a drop of 20.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 24,420 dollars/ton to 24,020 dollars/ton, a decline of 400 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.8 to 7.7, a decrease of 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,825 tons to 488,000 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 49,838 tons to 140,750 tons. The spot average price increased by 442 yuan/ton to 24,302 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 24,302 yuan/ton, up 442 yuan/ton from last week; the South China Storage spot weekly average price was 24,334 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of the macro - environment, the US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The PPI and core PPI in November increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Energy cost increase was the main driver of the PPI rise. The US retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth since July last year. The market expected a 95% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in January 2026. China's foreign trade imports and exports in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and announced five other measures related to structural monetary policy tools [6][7]. - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's开工 rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. The开工 rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased slightly, mainly driven by pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment and the demand for can materials and packaging foils. Currently, the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment cycle has started, providing some support for the开工 rate of each sector, but high aluminum prices have restricted the scale of inventory replenishment, and with insufficient new orders, the increase is expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, on January 15, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons compared to before the holiday [7]. - For cast aluminum, the Friday SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy was 23,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 147 yuan/ton to 2,614 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 93 yuan/ton to 3,743 yuan/ton. Last week, the开工 rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained flat at 58%. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 110 tons to 70,000 tons [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, in the electrolytic aluminum sector, the market sentiment is bearish, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulating, leading to high - level volatile adjustments with limited medium - to - long - term adjustment. In the cast aluminum sector, there is increased pressure for price adjustment, but the adjustment range is expected to be limited due to supply - side constraints and macro - favorable factors [8]. 4. Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 545,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, as the benchmark price rises, the tariff part of the "premium" paid by buyers has increased from about 1,300 dollars per ton in June to 1,550 dollars per ton. China's automobile production and sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 34 million vehicles, setting a new record, and new energy vehicles have become the dominant force in the market, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [10][11]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, aluminum premiums, inventory seasonal changes, etc., which visually display the market data and trends of aluminum [13][14][16][18][20][22][24][27][30].

人民财讯1月19日电，中金公司（601995）研报称，看涨铝价和吨铝利润扩张，迎接电解铝板块重估机 遇。研报认为，电解铝供需缺口持续扩大，叠加全球积极的财政和货币政策共振，铝价有望持续创出新 高；考虑成本侧有望维持低位，吨铝利润有望随着铝价上行进一步走阔。按照当前价格，电解铝公司 2026年平均估值中枢仍压在10倍附近，在涨价过程中具备较大向上重估空间，板块有望迎来戴维斯双 击。 ...

中金公司研报指出，供给端弹性下降且脆弱性上升。一是国内产能触顶，二是欧美受制于电力紧张难以 恢复且脆弱性提升，三是印尼受制于电力供应产能难以快速释放，我们预计2025-2030年全球供应增速 将系统性下滑,供应CAGR为1.4%。需求侧受益于财政货币双宽松且新兴需求方兴未艾。我们认为，一 是传统需求有望在宽松下获得提振，二是储能、IDC叠加新三样正在成为铝需求的新引擎，三是海外新 兴经济体支撑铝需求进入新周期，我们预计2025-2030年需求CAGR为2.3%。成本端，我们认为，一是 氧化铝受反内卷和几内亚政策风险有望驱动价格否极泰来，二是能源绿色转型有望降低电解铝绿电成 本，三是煤炭需求拖累价格维持低位。中国铝产业加速出海布局，具有出海潜力的公司具备更强的成长 性。受制于国内铝土矿短缺和2017年以来电解铝产能天花板限制，中国铝企出海东南亚、非洲、中东等 地的进程正全面加速。率先出海的企业将构建先发优势，卡位资源和能源丰富区域。看涨铝价和吨铝利 润扩张，迎接电解铝板块重估机遇。我们认为，电解铝供需缺口持续扩大，叠加全球积极的财政和货币 政策共振，铝价有望持续创出新高；考虑成本侧有望维持低位，吨铝利润有望随着 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation and modernization of Xinjiang Agricultural Sixth Division Aluminum Co., led by Li Qingxin, emphasizing innovation, sustainability, and the shift from traditional manufacturing to intelligent production [2][5]. Group 1: Company Development - Xinjiang Agricultural Sixth Division Aluminum Co. has developed modern electrolytic aluminum production facilities over the past decade, showcasing a commitment to production efficiency and technological advancement [2]. - The company was established in a challenging environment, with initial investments from Shandong Xinfahua Aluminum Co. in 2009, where the conditions were harsh and infrastructure was lacking [3]. - The first aluminum ingot was produced in just 11 months after the start of construction, demonstrating the company's rapid development and commitment to overcoming obstacles [3]. Group 2: Innovation and Sustainability - Li Qingxin emphasizes that innovation is crucial for the survival of traditional industries, leading to the establishment of innovation studios and research centers to foster a culture of creativity [4]. - The company has implemented a significant solar power project, generating 1.45 billion kilowatt-hours of green electricity annually, which reduces carbon emissions by 1.21 million tons [5]. - A 2000-acre smart agricultural base has been developed, utilizing industrial waste heat for greenhouse heating and promoting sustainable practices in a previously barren area [5].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.66%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% for the week [3] - European markets showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.09%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.14%, and France's CAC 40 down 1.23% [3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. economic data includes GDP, PCE inflation, and consumer confidence index, which are crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4] - The PCE inflation data for November is set to be released, which is a key indicator for the Fed [4] - The U.S. third-quarter GDP revision is expected to show a growth rate of 4.3%, which may impact market expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] Earnings Season - The second week of the U.S. earnings season will feature major companies like Netflix and Intel, along with other industry leaders such as Johnson & Johnson and Abbott [5] Oil and Gold Markets - Oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive week, with WTI crude up 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Iran [7] - Gold futures increased by 2.18% to $4588.40 per ounce, while silver futures surged by 11.69% to $88.09 per ounce, amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility [8] European Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's economic growth prospects remain a key focus, particularly with fiscal stimulus from Germany [10] - The European Central Bank's upcoming meeting minutes will be scrutinized for any discussions on future interest rate hikes [10] - Key macroeconomic data releases include the ZEW economic sentiment index and manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC has upgraded the rating of China Aluminum A-shares to "outperform the market" with a target price of 17.10 yuan [1]