光大证券研究所 祝您2026元旦快乐 光大 证券 EVEBRIGHT SECURITIES 1 点击上方"光大证券研究"可以订阅哦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent approval of 18 brokerages for non-financial corporate debt financing tool underwriting qualifications marks a significant step in the development of China's bond market, enhancing the service quality for the real economy and increasing direct financing's share [1][5]. Group 1: Qualification Expansion - 18 brokerages have been approved, forming a clear three-tier business structure, reflecting regulatory precision in managing bond underwriting [2][3]. - Six brokerages, including Caitong Securities and Huatai United, have obtained general lead underwriter qualifications, allowing them to independently lead various debt financing products [2][3]. - One brokerage, Zhongyin Securities, has secured a special lead underwriter qualification focused on technology innovation debt financing tools, benefiting from policy support [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The entry of these 18 brokerages is expected to disrupt the existing market structure, which has been dominated by large banks and a few leading brokerages, where brokerages previously held less than 30% of the lead underwriting qualifications in the interbank market [5][6]. - The new qualifications enable brokerages to independently participate in the interbank market, previously requiring collaboration with banks, thus allowing them to retain a larger share of underwriting fees [5][6]. Group 3: Business Opportunities - The qualification expansion provides brokerages with broader opportunities in fixed income business, allowing them to build a full-chain service capability from issuance to trading and market-making [7]. - The diverse range of non-financial corporate debt financing tools, including short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, complements the existing products in the exchange market, enhancing the overall bond service system [7][8]. - The competition in the bond underwriting market is expected to intensify, leading to a more reasonable underwriting fee structure and providing issuers with more options [8]. Group 4: Future Implications - Leading brokerages with strong capital and risk control systems are likely to dominate high-quality projects, while smaller brokerages may need to adopt differentiated strategies to survive [8]. - The approval of qualifications is not a permanent solution; ongoing regulatory oversight will require brokerages to enhance their risk management and pricing capabilities to capitalize on the benefits of their new qualifications [8].

记者丨 崔文静 编辑丨巫燕玲 当前，我国正加速迈向"金融强国"的新征程。作为资本市场的核心中介与关键枢纽，证券行业 被赋予更高期望：不仅要更高效地服务实体经济，还要在全球金融舞台上争取更大话语权。如 何平衡"立足本土"与"竞逐全球"这双重使命，成为券业发展的重要议题。 近日，21世纪经济报道记者专访了中金公司党委副书记、副董事长、总裁王曙光。他明确指 出， 服务国内实体经济与争夺全球金融定价权是"双向赋能"、协同共进的关系。唯有深耕本 土，才能锻造国际竞争的核心能力；同时，只有争取全球定价权，才能反哺国内高质量发展。 面向更宏伟的全球愿景，王曙光认为，中国投行跻身国际一流投行的当务之急在于"锻内功、 转思维"，转向价值创造，全力弥补在深度研究、协同服务、全球风控与高端人才等方面的关 键短板。 尤为值得关注的是，在王曙光看来，中国投行对全球金融秩序更深层次的贡献，并非简单的定 价权争夺，而在于将中国市场实践中形成的、强调金融与实体经济深度融合的"赋能型"发展范 式，以开放合作的姿态贡献于世界，推动全球金融治理体系朝着更加包容、均衡和可持续的方 向演进。这一系列判断，为理解中国券商在新时代的战略定位与转型方向提供 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Issuance - In November, the bond market issued a total of 70,179.3 billion yuan, including 10,444.2 billion yuan in government bonds, 9,126.9 billion yuan in local government bonds, 11,955.0 billion yuan in financial bonds, 13,948.8 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 327.2 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 24,009.2 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] Group 2: Bond Market Operation - In November, the interbank bond market had a total transaction volume of 30.5 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2] - The exchange bond market recorded a transaction volume of 3.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 188.7 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Foreign Participation in Bond Market - As of the end of November, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market was 3.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.9% of the total custody balance [3] - Foreign institutions held 2.0 trillion yuan in government bonds, representing 56.2% of their total holdings [3] Group 4: Money Market Operation - In November, the interbank lending market had a transaction volume of 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% but a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [4] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.42%, up by 2.5 basis points month-on-month [4] Group 5: Bill Market Operation - In November, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 4.0 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 3.1 trillion yuan [5] - Small and micro enterprises accounted for 93.5% of all bill issuers, with a total bill issuance amount of 3.0 trillion yuan [5] Group 6: Stock Market Operation - By the end of November, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, a decrease of 66.2 points or 1.7% [6] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 808.05 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 16.0% [6] Group 7: Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of November, there were 3,987 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [8] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated among state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [8]

Macroeconomic Insights - China's economic growth is characterized by a shift from a single focus on growth rate to a more balanced and stable economic structure, with significant contributions from domestic consumption [2] - The resilience of exports has exceeded expectations despite external tariff pressures, indicating a robust adaptability of China's economic fundamentals [2] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting the midstream manufacturing sector, leading to a revaluation of value driven by deeper industrial structure changes [2] Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a range of approximately 30 basis points, reflecting a complex interplay of market forces [3] - The narrative in the bond market has shifted from linear macroeconomic projections to a focus on event impacts, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors [3] - Chinese bonds are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors, offering stable returns and low correlation, positioning them as a potential "stability anchor" in global portfolios [4] Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is transitioning from a "technology race" to a practical "value realization" phase, with rapid industry expansion and a shift in investment focus from infrastructure to application layers [5] - The structure of the AI industry is expected to resemble an inverted pyramid, with increasing market size driven by applications, models, and chips [5] - Companies with a growing share of AI revenue are likely to attract more capital market attention, leading to potential valuation increases [5] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is undergoing a significant value reassessment, with a clear divide in performance between traditional cyclical products and sectors like precious and non-ferrous metals [7] - Analysts predict that the structural differentiation in the commodity market will continue, driven by supply reshaping, policy adjustments, and enhanced financial attributes [7] - Non-ferrous metals are widely regarded as having the most significant upside potential in the upcoming market landscape [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the competitive landscape of IPO underwriting in the A-share market, with leading brokerages solidifying their positions while smaller firms carve out niches in specific segments [1] - The top five brokerages accounted for 64 IPO projects, representing approximately 50% of the total market underwriting volume [1] - The dual innovation board has become a key platform for financing technology and emerging industries, raising a total of 633.71 billion yuan, nearly half of the annual IPO fundraising total [3] Group 2 - In the 2025 IPO underwriting rankings, the top five brokerages were Guotai Junan (19 projects), CITIC Securities (17), CITIC Jianzhong (12), China Merchants Securities (10), and Huatai United (0) [2] - CITIC Securities led the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with an underwriting scale of 168.95 billion yuan and a market share of 44.64%, driven by high-profile technology companies [3][4] - The top five brokerages for the ChiNext IPO underwriting included Guotai Junan and China Merchants Securities, with CITIC Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, and CICC following closely [4][6] Group 3 - The Beijing Stock Exchange continues to focus on serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, with the top underwriters being China Merchants Securities, Huatai United, Dongfang Securities, Guotai Junan, and Guojin Securities [7] - The 2025 evaluation results from the China Securities Association showed that 12 brokerages received an A rating, with five firms maintaining this rating for two consecutive years, indicating stable business quality management [8] - The regulatory environment remains stringent, with a notable shift in the quality evaluation system reflecting ongoing optimization and a strong compliance focus in the securities industry [8] Group 4 - Looking ahead to 2026, the IPO market is expected to remain active, with a structural optimization characterized by stable volume and improved quality, particularly in hard technology sectors [9] - Key industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and biomedicine are anticipated to see an increase in the number of listed hard technology companies [9] - Brokerages will continue to focus on supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades, intensifying competition between leading firms and niche players [9]

而白银方面，中信建投证券在上周的研报中就已经提示"白银的波动率指数处于历史极大值，要警惕超 买后的回调风险"。道明证券的大宗商品分析师在其2026年展望中写道，他们预计白银价格在未来一年 将放缓至40美元左右。 来源 | 央视财经、中国基金报、21世纪经济报道、河南日报 受美国芝商所昨天开始上调金属期货履约保证金等因素影响，大量投资者赶在新规生效前卖出。29日， 国际贵金属价格经历大幅下跌；30日，国际黄金、白银价格出现反弹。 截至北京时间12月30日晚上7点30分，纽商所明年3月交割的白银期货价格报每盎司74.42美元，涨幅达 5.62%；纽商所明年2月交割的黄金期货价格报每盎司4402.1美元，涨幅达1.35%。此外，国际铜价也出 现反弹，纽商所明年3月交割的铜期货价格报每磅5.6945美元，涨幅达2.30%。 | | ■金金 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | COMEX白银 | 75.965 d | 5.505 | 7.81% | 159.35% | | NYMEX铂 | 2260.0d | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reflects on the significant year of 2025, emphasizing its role in China's modernization journey and the importance of the capital market as a driver of innovation and a bridge to common prosperity [4][16]. Group 1: Achievements in 2025 - The company issued 8 equity underwriting projects and surpassed a bond underwriting scale of 100 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position for three consecutive years in main underwriting scale [6][17]. - The establishment of multiple government-guided funds has facilitated investments in technology innovation and regional development, contributing to the growth of green industries and advanced technologies [6][17]. - The company has strengthened its core capabilities in brokerage, credit business, and asset management, achieving record market share and business scale [6][17][18]. Group 2: Embracing Change and Innovation - The company has actively pursued digital transformation, launching self-developed platforms and applications that enhance collaboration between humans and machines [7][18]. - It has expanded into new business areas such as cross-border wealth management and options market-making, obtaining new qualifications that enhance its professional service capabilities [7][18]. - Recognition as a "supporting collective for Zhejiang's development" highlights the company's commitment to serving the real economy [7][18]. Group 3: Future Directions - The company aims to adhere to three principles: serving national strategies, deepening reform, and promoting inclusive finance, to contribute to the construction of a financial powerhouse [8][19]. - It plans to focus on high-level technological self-reliance and optimize resource integration to build a comprehensive financial platform driven by technology and professionalism [8][19]. - The company expresses its commitment to supporting the high-quality development of China's capital market and contributing to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for economic and social development [8][19].

Core Viewpoint - The "Qihang·2025 Financial Annual Conference" highlighted the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of 2026 for China's economy and capital markets, which are expected to enter a recovery phase and experience significant growth opportunities [1][2]. Economic Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a turning point as China moves away from inflation lows and establishes a new economic equilibrium, with expectations of a recovery cycle in the economy and capital markets [2]. - The "Fifteen Five" period is projected to be a golden era for both the Chinese economy and capital markets, with significant improvements in overall productivity and advancements in technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors [3]. Inflation and Commodity Prices - The CPI is expected to stabilize around 0.5, with the possibility of higher figures, while the PPI may turn positive in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The "pig oil resonance" phenomenon is predicted, where pork prices will significantly influence the CPI, and oil prices are expected to remain supported due to geopolitical risks and limited production increases from OPEC+ [2][3]. Capital Market Insights - The capital market is expected to enter a golden age during the "Fifteen Five" period, with foreign investment becoming a crucial source of incremental capital [4]. - The future of the Chinese stock market looks promising, with continuous inflow of new capital being a key factor for a sustained bull market [4]. - To surpass the 2015 market peak, the daily trading volume in the A-share market needs to reach between 2.5 trillion to 3 trillion yuan, supported by regulatory policies aimed at attracting long-term capital [4].

"却顾所来径，苍苍横翠微。" 2025年这一年，全球经济复苏乏力与地缘博弈交织的外部环境，同国内高质量发展与金融强国建设的内在要求相互碰撞，共同推动中国金融体 系加速告别规模扩张的旧范式，迈入以质量提升、结构优化、风险可控为核心的新周期。 2025年10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称"十五五"规划建议）正式公布，为未来五年 中国经济社会发展擘画了宏伟蓝图。这份纲领性文件将金融提升到前所未有的战略高度，"金融"一词被提及17次，并首次将"加快建设金融强 国"确立为核心目标，标志着金融发展从"大"到"强"的历史性跨越。 "十五五"规划建议为金融强国建设明确了清晰的实施路径与核心任务。在对内改革层面，明确提出完善中央银行制度、货币政策与宏观审慎管 理体系"双支柱"框架；将科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融这"五篇大文章"确立为金融服务实体经济的核心抓手；并致力 于提高资本市场制度的包容性与适应性。 在对外开放与监管层面，规划强调"稳"与"进"的平衡：一方面要求全面加强金融监管，强化央地协同，丰富风险处置工具，构建坚实的风险防 范化解体系；另一方面则明确 ...