Group 1 - The "Good Products Enter Beijing for the New Year" national promotion event for high-quality agricultural products was held in Beijing, focusing on products from Huancheng County [1] - Over 200 types of agricultural specialty products from 13 enterprises, including Huancheng millet, yellow wine, buckwheat noodles, and buckwheat vinegar, were showcased at the event, attracting significant attention from attendees [3] - Multiple projects were signed at the event, with a total agreement amount reaching 355 million yuan [3] Group 2 - The Vice Mayor of Qingyang City, Wang Yihua, stated that the promotion event will serve as an opportunity to focus on modern cold drought characteristic agriculture, aiming to expand scale, extend chains, and improve quality and efficiency [3] - The initiative aims to enhance specialty industries such as grain, livestock, fruits, vegetables, mushrooms, and medicinal products, positioning "Gansu flavor" products as key drivers for increasing income and promoting rural revitalization [3]

Core Insights - The Guangdong provincial government highlighted significant achievements in the agricultural sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in the city of Qingyuan, where five major agricultural industries have seen an average annual growth of over 25% in their total industrial chain output value [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Industry Growth - Qingyuan's five major agricultural industries, including Qingyuan chicken, Xiniu bamboo shoots, and Yingde black tea, have each surpassed a total industrial chain output value of 10 billion yuan [1] - The total output value of these five industries is projected to reach 46.124 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - Qingyuan chicken is recognized as the largest and most well-structured industry among 27 quality breeds in the country, with 14 breeding farms and 28 standardized demonstration farms [1] Group 2: Regional Development and Economic Goals - Qingyuan has developed a strong county and wealth-generating industry tailored to local conditions, with provincial parks achieving full coverage across counties [2] - Seven counties have been rated as performing well in the "Hundred Million Project" initiative in Guangdong province [2] - The city aims to become a modernized scenic city and a vibrant garden in the Greater Bay Area, targeting an economic total exceeding 300 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - On January 12, a significant transaction of 1.1613 million tons of soybean meal occurred in China, with 1.077 million tons attributed to forward basis contracts, indicating strong demand from various regions including Northeast, North China, Central China, and the two Guang regions [1] - The forward market profitability provided oil mills with opportunities for hedging and pre-sales, particularly in South China where basis trading was prevalent, with prices for May-July contracts at a discount of 30 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The USDA report released on January 13 indicated an increase in both the beginning stocks and production of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, raising total supply by 17 million bushels, with planted area adjusted to 81.2 million acres and harvested area at 80.4 million acres [2] - U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected to rise to 35 million bushels, reflecting a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a reduction in the average price to $10.20 per bushel [2] Group 3 - Brazil's soybean production forecast was raised by 3 million tons to 178 million tons due to improved rainfall in the southern regions, with domestic crushing and consumption also slightly increasing [2] - The increase in Brazilian soybean production is expected to exert long-term pressure on global soybean prices and lower import costs [3] Group 4 - The National Grain Trade Center conducted several auctions for imported soybeans, with the auction on January 13 achieving a 100% transaction rate for 1.1396 million tons at an average price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [4][5] - The successful auction results signal a "short-term supply abundance" and indicate a favorable environment for downstream enterprises, despite potential delays in imports due to customs policies [5]

晨光生物1月16日公告，为拓展公司业务，合理完善产业布局，公司拟使用8000万元在桂林市成立全资 子公司，开展罗汉果加工提取业务。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——白银50天涨逾80%，疯狂程度远超黄金，历史上爆炒白银往往预示贵金属 牛市已到高潮，这次有何不同？ （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，晨光生物1月16日晚间发布公告称，晨光生物科技集团股份有限公司于2026年1月16日召 开的第五届董事会第二十一次会议审议通过了《关于在桂林设立全资子公司的议案》，根据公司战略发 展需要，为拓展公司业务，合理完善产业布局，公司拟使用自有资金8000万元在桂林市成立全资子公 司，开展罗汉果加工提取业务。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The global and Canadian canola supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which restricts prices. However, the improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports. There are also positive news from US biodiesel, and the supply side has continued to cut production this month with a significant increase in palm oil exports in the first half of the month. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and canola oil is in a destocking mode, supporting prices. But the arrival of Australian canola and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations will increase long - term supply pressure. The short - term price fluctuations are intensifying, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade negotiations [6]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures continued to decline. The USDA monthly supply - demand report is bearish, dragging down US soybeans. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China is a recent focus [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,063 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The global 2025/26 canola production is expected to be 95.172 million tons, with an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year. Canada's 2025/26 canola production is 22 million tons, an increase of 2.761 million tons year - on - year. The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports, and there are positive factors such as US biodiesel news. In China, oil mills are shut down, and canola oil is destocking, but future supply pressure may increase [6]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA report is bearish for soybeans, but US soybean crushing in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation and fluctuates with soybean meal [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices and Positions**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 269,628 lots, an increase of 24,507 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 917,639 lots, an increase of 108,294 lots from last week [12]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were - 6,415, compared with - 10,917 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 240,846, compared with - 107,343 last week, with an increase in net short positions [18]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 2,142, and those of canola meal were 84 [24]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,950 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 887 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 195 yuan/ton [31][37]. - **Futures Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 53 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 68 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [43]. - **Futures - Spot Ratios**: The ratio of the 05 canola oil - canola meal contract was 4.02, and the average spot price ratio was 3.95 [47]. - **Price Spreads between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,047 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 389 yuan/ton, also with narrow fluctuations this week [56]. - **Price Spreads between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 472 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread was 770 yuan/ton [62] 3. Industry Chain Situation **Rapeseed** - **Supply - side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [66]. - **Imported Pressing Profit**: As of January 15, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,202 yuan/ton [70]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the second week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0% [74]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total rapeseed import volume was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72% [78] **Canola Oil** - **Supply - side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 295,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.64%. In November 2025, the total canola oil import volume was 1.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons compared with the same period last year [82]. - **Demand - side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 605.7 billion yuan [86]. - **Demand - side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 55,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [90] **Canola Meal** - **Supply - side Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week [94]. - **Supply - side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total canola meal import volume was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96% [98]. - **Demand - side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.9779 million tons [102] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of January 16, this week, canola meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 25.54%, basically the same as last week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [106]

证券之星消息，1月16日农产品加工板块较上一交易日下跌0.06%，田野股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4101.91，下跌0.26%。深证成指报收于14281.08，下跌0.18%。农产品加工板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600962 国投中鲁 | | -3093.59万 | 13.33% | 224.39万 | 0.97% | -3317.99万 | -14.30% | | 300138 | 晨光生物 | 1034.83万 | 4.21% | 295.55万 | 1.20% | -1330.38万 | -5.41% | | 000930 中粮科技 | | 281.52万 | 3.82% | 372.98万 | 5.06% | -654.50万 | -8.87% | | 001338 | 永顺泰 | 38.54万 | 0.56% | 31.81万 | 0.46% | -70.36万 ...

Group 1 - The 62nd French International Agricultural Show (SIA) will take place from February 21 to March 1, 2026, at the Paris Porte de Versailles Exhibition Center, marking the third appearance of the China Pavilion [1] - The China Pavilion aims to serve as a comprehensive international platform for brand promotion, trade matching, and cultural exchange, evolving from a single display platform to a multifaceted entity [2] - The theme for the China Pavilion at this year's show is "Cultivating China, Tasting the World," highlighting the preparation progress and core planning for the event [2] Group 2 - The event is supported by various government entities and organizations, including the Beijing Fengtai District People's Government and the Shandong Laiyang Municipal Government, emphasizing the collaboration between government, enterprises, and research institutions [3] - The French market shows a high recognition of Chinese cuisine, and the agricultural fair is expected to enhance cultural and trade exchanges between China and France, showcasing the high-quality development of China's agricultural sector [1][2] - The event aims to deepen the integration of the agricultural value chain between China and France, creating new opportunities in the global market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the metals sector, it points out that copper's long - term fundamentals are good but short - term prices are affected by inventory structure and geopolitical risks; in the agricultural products sector, it mentions that factors such as supply and demand, policies, and seasonal patterns influence the prices of various products. Summary by Catalog Daily Selections - Alumina: The market maintains a wide - range shock. The core contradiction lies in the tug - of - war between policy expectations and the weak fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to oscillate around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton [2]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the spot price is under pressure. It is expected to operate stably with a downward trend [3]. - Coking Coal: The coal trading in Shanxi has warmed up, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. Before the Spring Festival, driven by the replenishment demand, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [4]. - Eggs: The egg price has stabilized and increased, and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The futures price is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly stronger state in the short term [5]. Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Thursday, the A - share market showed a mixed trend. The main stock index futures contracts had different trends, with IH2603 falling and the other three rising. The basis of the main contracts also showed different states [6][7]. - News: Domestically, the central bank adjusted interest rates and increased the quota of some re - loans. Overseas, the US imposed tariffs on some semiconductors [7][8]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market decreased slightly, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a net investment [8]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH on dips. For small - and medium - cap indexes, use bull spreads and control risks [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [11]. - Policy: The central bank cut interest rates on re - loans and rediscounts, and mentioned that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12]. - Operation Suggestions: Unilateral strategies suggest continued waiting, and curve strategies tend to steepen the curve in the medium - term perspective [13]. Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data, such as the decline in the number of initial jobless claims and the increase in overseas holdings of US Treasury bonds, affected market expectations. The US government's decision on tariffs and geopolitical tensions also influenced precious metal prices [14][17]. - Future Outlook: Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side shock in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to operate strongly, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [17][18]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Index: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index and the US West route index showed different trends [19]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different performances [19]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price entering the downward cycle pressured the futures [19]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is affected by factors such as inventory structure and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot inventory continues to accumulate, and the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to short on rallies [25][27]. - Aluminum: The price is at a high level and oscillates. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The inventory is decreasing, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31][33]. - Zinc: The LME's suspension of zinc delivery from South Korea Zinc boosted the price. The fundamentals show that the supply is tight at the mine end, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term [34][37]. - Tin: The market sentiment has declined, and the price is at a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [37][42]. - Nickel: The price is strong, affected by Indonesia's policy on nickel ore. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand varies in different sectors. It is recommended to operate within a range [42][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price oscillates strongly, mainly driven by the raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate strongly [45][48]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price oscillates and adjusts. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and consider positive spreads between months [49][53]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to production cuts and demand recovery [53][55]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is at a low - level shock. It is expected to maintain a supply - demand dual - weak pattern in January, and it is necessary to pay attention to polysilicon production changes [56][58]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The market is in a weak supply - demand state during the off - season, and the price oscillates. It is expected that the steel price will move within a range [58][59]. - Iron Ore: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [60][62]. - Coking Coal: The price in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the trading has warmed up. It is recommended to go long on dips before the Spring Festival and pay attention to arbitrage [63][67]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage [68][69]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation improves marginally. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [70][72]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese ore has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [73][76]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks drivers, and the soybean meal oscillates. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [77][78]. - Live Pigs: The price returns to the oscillating pattern. The supply is relatively abundant in January, and it is recommended to short on rallies after stabilization [79][80]. - Corn: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment and policy releases [81][83]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price falls, and the domestic market focuses on stocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84][85]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is stable, and the domestic price stops falling and stabilizes. The short - term price may be adjusted [88]. - Eggs: The price is stable and rising, and the supply - demand pressure is not large. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [92]. - Oils: Palm oil leads the decline in the vegetable oil market. Different oils have different price trends and influencing factors [93][95]. - Red Dates: The market trading is weak, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [96]. - Apples: The market sentiment cools down, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [97]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The high valuation and downstream production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 7000 yuan and consider low - long positions in the medium - term [98][99]. - PTA: Similar to PX, it is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to try to go long when the price is below 5000 yuan and consider positive spreads [100][101]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [102][103]. - Bottle - grade Chips: The supply and demand both decrease in January, and the price follows the cost. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing margin range [104][105]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is under pressure due to seasonal inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4000 yuan for EG2605 and consider reverse spreads [106][107]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation improves slightly, but the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to short BR2603 on rallies and pay attention to the narrowing spread between EB and BZ [108]. - Styrene: The price is short - term strong, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short EB03 on rallies and reduce the processing margin [109][110]. - LLDPE: The basis remains stable, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [111][112]. - PP: The number of maintenance increases, and the price is strong. It is recommended to hold the position when the PDH profit expands [113]. - Methanol: The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see [113]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the price is expected to operate stably with a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [114][115]. - PVC: The price fluctuates due to export policies. It is recommended to wait and see on short positions [116][117]. - Urea: The price center moves up due to agricultural demand and inventory reduction. It is expected to be strong in the short term [118][119]. - Soda Ash: The production capacity recovers, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [120][123]. - Glass: The sentiment declines, and the sales rate continues to fall. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term [120][124]. - Natural Rubber: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [124][126]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support range and consider long - short arbitrage [127][130].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, and the US stock market closed higher. Gold, silver, and copper prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4%. Domestically, December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the suspension of tariff concerns, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Copper prices may adjust in the short - term but will likely see a long - term increase in the valuation center. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels due to mixed macro news and weak downstream demand. Alumina prices are under pressure and may oscillate weakly. Cast aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels. Zinc and lead prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Tin prices may shift to high - level oscillations [4][6][8][10][11]. - For steel products, steel prices are generally oscillating due to limited fundamental drivers. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate due to strong supply and weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue oscillating due to weak fundamental drivers. For agricultural products, soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [19][20][21][24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US job market is resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, reducing tariffs from 20% to 15% in exchange for semiconductor - related investments in the US. The US stock market closed higher, the US dollar index rose above 99.3, precious metals prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4% [2]. - Domestic: December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP and retained the possibility of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [3]. Precious Metals - The Trump administration decided not to impose full - scale tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. After the suspension of tariff concerns, precious metals prices oscillated at high levels. Market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice in 2026 [4][5]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a high level, and the London copper found support at $12,800. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had weak trading. The LME and COMEX inventories increased. Trump may cancel tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and key minerals. The market expects the US to impose a 15% import tariff on refined copper from 2027. In the medium - term, the structural imbalance in fundamentals will raise the valuation center of London copper [6][7]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,320 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. The LME aluminum closed at $3,171.5/ton, down 0.56%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory increased. The strong US employment data supported the US dollar index, and the domestic "structural interest rate cut" showed moderately loose policy characteristics. The downstream demand for aluminum was weak, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on high - level aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2,766 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The spot alumina national average price was 2,671 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, and the supply - demand surplus continues. The inventory continues to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [10]. Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The supply - side profit inversion restricts production, and the downstream demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The cost side has slightly loosened, and the price is expected to adjust under pressure [11]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract 2603 rose and then fell during the day and oscillated narrowly at night. The LME zinc oscillated narrowly. The LME will not accept certain brands of zinc for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The downstream consumption is further suppressed, and the social inventory is stagnant at around 118,000 tons. The zinc price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [12][13]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract 2603 oscillated during the day and shifted upward slightly at night. The LME lead oscillated strongly. The LME will not accept certain brands of lead for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The social inventory increased to 32,500 tons, and the inventory's support for the lead price weakened. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely due to the combination of multiple and short factors [14][15]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract 2603 oscillated at a high level during the day and fell at night. The LME tin fell slightly. On January 15, the tin registered warehouse receipts increased by 2,419 tons. The exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio, daily limit range, and trading volume limit for tin to cool down the over - heated market. The tin price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [16][17][18]. Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated. The five major steel products' supply increased slightly, the total inventory decreased slightly, and the apparent consumption increased. The steel price is expected to oscillate due to limited fundamental drivers [19]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted slightly. The demand side is restricted by the off - season, and the supply side will see a concentrated arrival of iron ore due to the end - of - year mine production rush. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coking enterprises' profitability shrank, and the production slowed down. The upstream coal mines resumed production, but the coking coal output was not high. The downstream finished products had high inventory and limited steel mill profits, and the demand for coke price increases was weak. The price is expected to continue oscillating [21]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 05 contract closed down 0.33%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed down 0.74%. The US December soybean crushing volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year. The US biodiesel policy may be finalized in early March. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [22][23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract closed down 2.03%. The Malaysian palm oil export volume increased from January 1 - 15. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, boosting the US soybean oil price. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].