央视财经（记者 平凡 张娅芳）记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，受国际油价下跌影响，国内汽柴油价格将于10月27日24时下调。据国家发展改革委价格 监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（10月13日—10月24日）国际油价大幅波动，呈先降后升走势。 总体将维持宽幅震荡走势 调价周期内，国际油价大幅波动，呈先降后升走势，平均水平较上一轮调价周期大幅下降。前期，受以色列和巴勒斯坦达成停火协议、胡塞武装与美国达成 红海休战协议影响，中东地缘政治紧张局势趋缓，油市风险溢价有所削减。与此同时，全球经贸环境不确定性上升，加之"欧佩克+"持续增产，使得国际油 价进一步走低。以伦敦布伦特原油期货价格为例，最低降至每桶61美元左右，为近半年来低位。后期，美国加大对俄罗斯两大石油公司制裁，市场认为这将 影响印度从俄罗斯原油进口。同时，俄乌冲突持续，美俄原定将举行的峰会推迟。受此影响，国际油价快速回升，目前伦敦布伦特油价在每桶65美元左右波 动。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心认为，当前巴以、俄乌局势不稳定性较大，欧美对部分产油国制裁政策延续，这将对短期油价提供支撑并加大波动幅度。但全 球原油市场处于供应过剩格局较难改变，国际能源署最新《 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market is in a stage of game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand fundamental bearish factors. Short - term low - position long ideas are recommended, and the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply should be continuously monitored [2][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and strong trend. SC2512 opened at 438 for the week, reached a high of 471, a low of 431, and closed at 465, with a weekly increase of 29.9 or 6.87% [3] 3.2 Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.2.1 OPEC - OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production. In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ member countries' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply reached 108 million barrels in September, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held, and Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30. On October 5, eight voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next eight - country meeting will be held on November 2 [6] - In September, the output of above - scale industrial crude oil was 17.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, with a daily output of 592,000 tons. From January to September, the output was 162.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [6] 3.2.2 Russia - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to reach 515 - 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16 that the oil production in 2025 is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains high [7] - In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - In September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day. In September 2025, Russia's seaborne oil exports increased by 12.8% compared with August, with ESPO crude oil exports increasing by 22.6% to 146,000 tons per day, reaching the highest level since 2025. The seaborne volume of the main export variety, Urals crude oil, increased by 7.7% to 290,000 tons per day. In the four weeks ending October 19, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 29 - month high [8] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on two large Russian oil companies on October 22, and the EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas. After the US sanctions, India's Reliance Industries decided to stop buying Russian crude oil [8][9] 3.2.3 United States - As of the week ending October 17, the US daily crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a decrease of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 129,000 barrels from the same period last year. The average daily production in the four weeks ending October 17 was 13.6 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. This year, the average daily production was 13.454 million barrels, 1.9% higher than last year [10] - As of the week ending October 24, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 60 from the same period last year. The number of natural gas - drilling rigs was 121, the same as the previous week and an increase of 20 from the same period last year. The total number of oil and gas drilling platforms was 550, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 35 from the same period last year [10][12] - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will increase by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. It is predicted that the low oil price at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decline in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and the inventory will be adjusted later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [12] 3.2.4 America's Production Increase - The IEA expects non - OPEC+ countries' daily crude oil production to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels in the next two years respectively, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+ will increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that the global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than the demand next year [18] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 2025, the OECD's commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, less than the average of the past five years by 128.5 million barrels and less than the average of 2015 - 2019 by 208.6 million barrels [19] - As of the week ending October 17, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.388 million barrels, a decrease of 142,000 barrels from the previous week. The commercial crude oil inventory was 422.824 million barrels, a decrease of 961,000 barrels from the previous week. The gasoline inventory was 216.679 million barrels, a decrease of 2.146 million barrels from the previous week [19] 3.2.6 Consumption - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year, and the global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [25] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year. However, in the remaining time of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day [25] - As of the four weeks ending October 17, the average daily total demand for refined oil in the US was 20.474 million barrels, 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The four - week average daily demand for gasoline was 8.587 million barrels, 3.6% lower than the same period last year [25] 3.2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee - The average refining profit margin of Shandong local refineries in this cycle was 154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 271 yuan/ton from the previous cycle. The average refining profit margin of major refineries was 512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous cycle [27] 3.2.8 Refinery Operating Rate - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the operating rate was 93.16% [29] - This week, the average operating load of domestic major refineries in China was 80.89%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.04%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week [29] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The US sanctions on Russian suppliers and India's review of Russian oil purchases have led to concerns about short - term supply reduction and pushed up crude oil prices. Based on past experience, the actual impact is limited, and attention should be paid to whether Russia can restructure its trade flows. The short - term strategy is to be bullish at low positions and continue to monitor the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply [35]

智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第九次下调。 10月27日，国家发改委发布消息称，自24时起，国内汽油价格和柴油价格分别下调265元/吨和255元/吨。折合升价，92号汽油下调0.21元，95 号汽油和0号柴油均下调0.22元。 此次调价落实后，消费者出行成本将有所下降。 按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92号汽油节省10.5元；物流行业中，以月跑1万公里、百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下 次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将下降390元左右。 隆众资讯测算，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.5-6.7元/升，92号汽油零售限价在6.8-6.9元/升。 下一轮成品油价上调趋势概率较大。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦告诉智通财经，展望后市，中美经贸磋商出现积极进展，市场对美国关税及贸易争端的忧虑有所下降，叠加地缘局 势的不稳定性依然存在，预计下一轮成品油调价上调的概率较大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师许磊向智通财经表示，尽管市场对欧洲某国石油公司的制裁程度存疑，但是地缘紧张局势不确定性仍未消退，对国际 原油价格仍有支撑，后市关注中美经贸谈判以及美国石油产量增加预期，原油多空因素交织。 "近 ...

Core Points - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced due to the decline in international oil prices [1] - The price adjustments will take effect on October 27 at 24:00, with gasoline prices decreasing by 265 yuan per ton and diesel prices by 255 yuan per ton [1] - The average price reduction per liter will be 0.21 yuan for 92-octane gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0-octane diesel [1] - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will result in a savings of 10.5 yuan [1]

印度那个能源巨头信实工业突然宣布停止购买俄罗斯原油，这可不是小事儿！要知道，信实之前简直是 俄油的"头号粉丝"，光九月份一天就能吞下63万桶，占印度总进口量快一半了。但美国一制裁俄罗斯石 油公司和卢克石油公司，信实立马怂了，赶紧表态要"调整运营合规"——说白了，就是怕被美国盯上， 惹一身骚。这事儿可不止信实一家在折腾，其他印度国有炼油厂也偷偷摸摸审查文件，生怕踩雷。不过 有意思的是，进口量不会一下子归零，因为中间商还能钻空子倒腾油，就像打地鼠游戏，总有几个漏网 之鱼。但代价来了：专家算了一笔账，换成中东或其他地方的油，成本得蹭蹭涨，炼油厂利润肯定被压 榨，最后这锅说不定得老百姓背，加油费可能又要涨一波。更魔幻的是，这操作反而可能让印度和美国 关系升温——停购俄油一直是美印贸易谈判的绊脚石，现在一撤，说不定能换来点实惠协议。要我说， 印度这步棋走得挺险，短期看是亏本买卖，但长远说不定在赌更大的政治筹码。你们觉得，印度这波操 作到底是被迫低头，还是暗藏玄机？ ...

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao - SAC Registration Numbers: S1340523070001, S1340523120001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com, cuichao@cnpsec.com [2] Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: steel production is stable with a slight increase, asphalt开工率 is continuously declining at a high level, PX and PTA开工率 remain flat, and tire开工率 slightly increases; the real estate market shows marginal improvement with increases in both commercial housing transactions and land supply areas; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and coking coal prices, continuous increase in copper prices, and accelerated upward movement in overall agricultural product prices; domestic and international freight rate indices show a divergent trend, with BDI changing from rising to falling and domestic SCFI and CCFI both rising. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies and the recovery of the real estate market [2][30] Summary by Section Production - Steel production is stable with a slight increase, and tire开工率 is generally on the rise. In the week of October 24, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.83 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.44 pct, and the rebar production increased by 5.91 tons; the petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 4.7 pct; the chemical PX and PTA开工率 remained the same as the previous week; the full - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 1.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.95 pct [2][3][9] Demand - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, and SCFI continues to rise. In the week of October 19, the commercial housing transaction area continued to recover, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area recovered, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased; the movie box office decreased by 1.19 billion yuan compared with the previous week; the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 21,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 11,000 vehicles. In the week of October 24, the shipping index SCFI increased by 7.11%, CCFI increased by 2.02%, and BDI decreased by 3.77% [2][3][12] Prices - Crude oil, coking coal, and non - ferrous metals all increased, and the upward movement of agricultural products accelerated. On October 24, the Brent crude oil price increased by 7.59% to $65.94 per barrel, the coking coal futures price increased by 5.66% to 1,251.5 yuan per ton, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +3.21%, +2.81%, and +2.62% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.23%; the overall agricultural product prices increased, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increasing by 2.11%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -1.66%, -1.99%, +5.92%, and -1.40% respectively compared with the previous week [3][20][23] Logistics - The number of domestic flights slightly recovered, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of October 24, the subway passenger volume in Beijing slightly increased and that in Shanghai slightly decreased, the number of domestic flights increased while the number of international flights decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline [3][26][27] Summary - Crude oil and coking coal prices significantly increased, and copper prices continued to rise. High - frequency economic data focuses on production, demand, prices, and logistics. Short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and the real estate market recovery [30]

比罗尔表示，"美洲五国"(美国、加拿大、巴西、圭亚那、阿根廷)的石油产量增速已超过需求增速，石 油市场将处于过剩状态。需求增长放缓的主要原因是中国正逐步减少对重工业和燃油汽车的依赖。本月 早些时候，IEA已上调2026年石油过剩规模预期，认为届时将出现创纪录的石油过剩。 上周，美国对俄罗斯最大几家石油生产商实施新制裁，引发市场对石油实际供应的担忧，原油价格因此 上涨近8%。作为俄罗斯石油的主要买家，印度的炼油厂表示将停止采购俄罗斯石油，中国部分炼油厂 也出现恐慌性停止采购的情况。 智通财经APP获悉，国际能源署(IEA)表示，受供应充足影响，预计油价将趋于平稳。IEA执行董事法提 赫·比罗尔(Fatih Birol)称："得益于美洲地区产量持续增长、欧佩克+(OPEC+)调整政策扩大产能，以及 需求增长放缓，我认为油市不会出现重大动荡。综合这些趋势，我预计未来几天到几周内，油价将趋于 平稳。" 他指出，若不发生其他重大地缘政治事件，关于中美本周可能达成贸易协议的猜测，仅会给油价带 来"小幅提振"。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant short-term pullback in gold prices, attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and fully priced expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to profit-taking pressure after substantial prior gains [1][7][30] - The U.S. inflation data released by the Labor Department showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 3.0% for September, which was below market expectations of 3.1%, and a core CPI increase of 3.0%, also lower than expected [1][8][30] - The report notes that the economic data vacuum due to the government shutdown may persist, affecting the release of future inflation data [1][7] Group 2 - In the global equity markets, the report indicates mixed performance, with the South Korean index showing the highest gain at +5.14%, followed by the Shenzhen Composite Index at +4.73% and the Hang Seng Index at +3.62% [2][34] - The report details that the energy sector in the U.S. stock market saw a rise of +2.90%, while the consumer staples sector experienced a decline of -0.59% [41] - In the Hong Kong market, the energy sector also led gains at +5.26%, while the healthcare sector fell by -0.74% [41]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 制裁引发供给担忧，国际油价强势反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:制裁引发供给担忧，国际油价强势反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | （1）EIA：EIA继续上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年，全球原油及相关液体产量为10,585万桶/日，较2024年上升267 万桶/日。(2)OPEC:9月份OPEC国家原油产量为2844万桶/日，较8月份上升52.4万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1460.6万桶/日，较8月份上升 | | | | 10.6万桶/日。（3）IEA：9月份OPEC国家原油产量为2945万桶/日，较8月份上升86万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.20-10.24) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油受地缘因素影响自低位大幅上行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.44美元，周涨7.32%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货 价格收于每桶64.72美元，周涨6.05%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至467.6元/桶，周涨8.09%。周初市场仍受美俄和谈影响低位运行，供应端未 受显著影响压制油价，而周中特朗普意外表示暂不考虑与俄罗斯总统普京会面，同时美国财政部加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，前所未有直接提 振市场地缘担忧情绪，令有消息称印度与美国进行关税谈判或减少俄油进口，更进一步拉升油价，原油回升至前期 ...