Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF Tianhong (159281) will be listed on September 2, 2025, providing investors with a new tool to invest in high-dividend central enterprises within the Hong Kong Stock Connect framework [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The fund closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, which consists of 50 listed companies controlled by central enterprises, selected for their stable dividend levels and high dividend yields [1]. - The index is weighted by dividend yield and has strict requirements for the sustainability of dividends, with a cap on individual sample weights, focusing primarily on the financial and industrial sectors [1]. Group 2: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, China National Freight, PetroChina, CITIC Bank, China Pacific Insurance, CNOOC, China Shenhua Energy, China Unicom, and Sinopec Engineering, collectively accounting for 30.47% of the index as of August 29 [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Benefits - The index offers a strategic overlay by allowing mainland investors to conveniently invest in scarce high-dividend central enterprise stocks in the Hong Kong market, avoiding QDII quota restrictions [4]. - Central enterprises exhibit strong operational stability and cash flow, demonstrating resilience during macroeconomic fluctuations [4]. - The index's dividend yield as of August 29 is 5.89%, outperforming the 4.29% yield of the CSI Central Enterprise Dividend 50 Index [4]. Group 4: Market Context - The Hong Kong dividend market continues to benefit from inflows of southbound capital, enhancing the investment value of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF amid weak economic expectations [4]. - The combination of stable dividends, structural opportunities, and supportive government policies contributes to the attractiveness of this investment vehicle for conservative investors seeking stable cash flow and asset preservation [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The updated time of the current fundamental high - frequency data is from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025. The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds expands, with a signal factor of 5.0% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.6, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 43.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points, and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.0, with a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.1%, and that of PPI is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.6, with a week - on - week increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency transportation index is 130.2, with a week - on - week increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency financing index is 235.6, with a week - on - week increase of 29.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering the overall situation, production, demand, prices, and financing is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices are built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 86.7%, up from 86.5%; the semi - tire operating rate is 72.8%, down from 73.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 63.8%, down from 64.8%; the PTA operating rate is 70.9%, down from 76.2%; the PX operating rate is 84.6%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 48.4 tons, up from 47.7 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters, up from 212,000 square meters; the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6%, down from 10.3% [30]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Decreases - The operating rate of petroleum devices is 29.3%, down from 30.7% [39]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1156 points, down from 1175 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.0 points, up from 296.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Decreases - The daily average box office of movies is 152.4 million yuan, down from 176.7 million yuan [61]. CPI: Agricultural Product Prices Remain Stable - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.0 yuan per kilogram, down from 20.1 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan per kilogram, up from 4.8 yuan; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan per kilogram, up from 17.5 yuan [68]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 695 yuan per ton, down from 703 yuan; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 68 US dollars per barrel, up from 67 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9725 US dollars per ton, up from 9616 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2616 US dollars per ton, up from 2577 US dollars [72]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 39.37 million person - times, down from 40.09 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,473, down from 14,834 [83]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 153,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons; the soda ash inventory is 1.878 million tons, down from 1.904 million tons [91]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Continues to Rise - The net financing of local government bonds is 243.5 billion yuan, up from 208.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 30.4 billion yuan, up from - 48.4 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.7%, up from 0.6%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.9%, up from - 1.03% [102].

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250901 从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟踪 202509 2025 年 09 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的五维行业轮动 月度跟踪 202508 2025-08-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 模型多空对冲绩效：以 2015/01/01-2025/08/31 为回测区间，五维行业轮 动模型在申万一级行业中，六分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 21.44%，年 化波动率为 10.84%，信息比率为 1.98，月度胜率为 71.95%，历史最大 回撤为 13.30%；多头对冲全市场行业等权组合的年化收益率为 10.52%， 年化波动率为 6.58%，信息比率为 1.60，月度胜率 70.49%，历史最大回 撤为 9.36%。 ◼ ...

个股方面，8月29日有1729只个股获融资净买入，净买入金额在1亿元以上的有56股。其中，11股获融资 净买入额超3亿元。东方财富获融资净买入额居首，净买入15.23亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还有宁德 时代、工业富联、新易盛、中际旭创、顺丰控股、天孚通信、胜宏科技等股，净买入金额均超6亿元。 Wind统计显示，8月29日，申万31个一级行业中有20个行业获融资净买入，其中，电子行业获融资净买 入额居首，当日净买入48.09亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有通信、电力设备、非银金融、交通运 输等，净买入金额均超10亿元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Upstream prices**: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - **Exchange rate**: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - **Inflation and trade**: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - **High - frequency data changes**: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].

Overall Analysis - In Q2 2025, the overall A-share market experienced a decline in profitability, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.41% for net profit attributable to shareholders, down from 2.57% in H1 2025 [11][12] - The revenue growth for the entire A-share market in H1 2025 was 0.21%, with Q2 showing a slight improvement to 0.49% [12][19] - The return on equity (ROE) for the non-financial and non-oil sectors stabilized at 6.26% in Q2 2025, indicating a need for further observation regarding upward elasticity [28][31] Industry Analysis - The industries with the highest year-on-year net profit growth in Q2 2025 included comprehensive services (+239.7%), steel (+82.2%), electronics (+27.6%), and electric equipment (+24.6%) [3][24] - The real estate, electric equipment, and defense industries showed improvements in net profit growth compared to Q1 2025 [3][24] - The TMT sector (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) demonstrated strong performance, with electronics and computing sectors showing significant improvements [3][24] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow showed a year-on-year improvement in Q2 2025, although overall cash flow levels remained low compared to the past decade [12][19] - The financing cash flow indicated a reduction in corporate debt repayment pressure, while investment cash flow remained stable [12][19] Dividend Distribution - As of August 30, 2025, 813 listed companies had disclosed and implemented dividends, with a total dividend payout of 642.8 billion yuan, reflecting an increase from 2024 [4][25]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of listed companies reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - In the second quarter, revenue was 18.11 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.15% [1] - The net profit for the first half of the year was 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [1] Group 2 - Nearly 60% of companies reported revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability, with 2,475 companies showing positive net profit growth and 1,943 companies experiencing both revenue and net profit growth [1] - Excluding the financial sector, the revenue of real economy listed companies was 30.42 trillion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, while net profit was 1.59 trillion yuan, up 0.94% year-on-year [1] - Companies listed on the ChiNext, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange showed significant revenue growth rates of 9.03%, 4.9%, and 6.08% respectively, with ChiNext's net profit growth rate at 11.18%, surpassing the overall market level [1] Group 3 - Among 19 industry categories, 17 achieved profitability, with 7 industries showing revenue growth and 10 industries reporting net profit growth [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, as well as transportation, storage, and postal services, experienced both revenue and net profit growth [2] - All 10 sub-sectors of manufacturing achieved profitability, with 6 industries reporting revenue growth and 5 industries showing net profit growth, particularly in specialized, general, and transportation equipment, as well as electrical, electronic, and communication sectors, which experienced both revenue and net profit growth [2]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.3% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points [1][3] - The overall economic climate in China continues to expand, with expectations for sustained release of domestic demand potential in September and the fourth quarter [1][11] Manufacturing Sector - In August, various sub-indices within the manufacturing sector, including production, new orders, and procurement volume, showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 1.8 percentage points, while the inventory and employment indices saw slight declines [3][10] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have also improved, with indices at 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, marking a continuous rise for three months [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has stabilized above 50%, with new orders showing a slight increase, indicating a stable operational environment [5] - The financial services sector, including banking and capital markets, has shown strong performance, with business activity indices above 60% [5][4] Consumer Activity - The hospitality and restaurant sectors have seen significant increases in their business activity indices, with both indices rising over 5 percentage points compared to the previous month [6] - Transportation sectors, including rail and air travel, have maintained high activity levels, with indices above 59% [7] Emerging Industries - The information services sector, particularly telecommunications and internet services, is experiencing robust growth, with business activity indices above 55% [8] - The ongoing "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to further enhance the application scenarios and development potential of the information services industry [8] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the macroeconomic environment will continue to improve, with stable recovery in manufacturing demand and expansion in production activities [11][12] - The impact of recent policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth, including support for new industrialization and carbon market development, is expected to inject new momentum into the economy [12]

Group 1 - A-share companies have announced over 800 mid-term cash dividend plans, setting a historical record, with total cash dividends exceeding 639 billion yuan and a cash dividend ratio of 21.36% of total net profits [1] - The banking sector leads in dividend scale, with an expected mid-term cash dividend of 237.54 billion yuan in 2025, followed by industries such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, non-bank financials, coal, and transportation [1] Group 2 - Major companies like China Mobile and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have cash dividends exceeding 50 billion yuan, while over 20 companies, including Chang'an Automobile and Hengli Petrochemical, are initiating mid-term dividends for the first time [3] - In terms of cash dividend ratios, companies like Shuoshi Biology and Yisheng Shares have exceptionally high ratios, with Shuoshi Biology proposing a cash dividend of 34 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 7142.28% [3] - Institutional investors show a clear preference for high dividend yields, with Dongfang Yuhong leading at a yield of 7.87%, and several other companies also exceeding 5% [3][4] Group 3 - Among stocks with dividend yields over 2%, six companies, including Bingchuan Network and Jinneng Technology, reported net profit growth exceeding 50% in the first half of the year [4] - Bingchuan Network achieved a net profit of 336 million yuan, marking a turnaround, with a mid-term dividend yield of 2.3% [4]