Report Title - [New Energy Weekly Report] [1] Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Nonferrous Metals Research Center [2] - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling [2] - Assistant Analyst: Chen Yusen [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The polysilicon market has an "anti - involution" policy framework, and the fundamentals may improve in the medium to long term, but prices may fluctuate in the short term. The lithium carbonate market has strong terminal demand, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [8][9][86] Summary by Directory 1. Nonferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report monitors the closing prices of various nonferrous metals and new energy products, including the US dollar index, exchange rates, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, etc. For example, the current value of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6] 2. Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 95,500 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week. The number of open furnaces is 313, an increase of 3 from the previous week. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month and a 7.33% decrease from the same period last year. October production is planned to be 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from the previous month and a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 32,000 tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Organic silicon DMC weekly production is 47,600 tons, a 1.04% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 693,900 tons, a 0.86% decrease from the previous week, with year - on - year growth of 23.18%. The industry inventory is 442,500 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, a 0.07% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 133 yuan, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Investment View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the price may fluctuate [8] Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. August production was 131,700 tons, a 23.31% increase from the previous month and a 2.41% increase from the same period last year. September production is planned to be 126,700 tons, a 3.80% decrease from the previous month and a 2.69% decrease from the same period last year [9] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 13.65GW, a 0.27% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.60GW, a 0.45% increase from the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 25,390 tons, a 4.83% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 24,420 tons, a 3.30% increase from the previous week [9] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,543 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,057 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" policy framework may improve the fundamentals of polysilicon in the medium to long term. Due to the long - term non - implementation of "anti - involution", market sentiment has subsided, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] 3. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. September production was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from the previous month and a 52.00% increase from the same period last year. October production is planned to be about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from the previous month and a 50.78% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month and a 23.54% increase from the same period last year. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month and a 33.13% decrease from the same period last year [86] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,100 tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 18,800 tons, a 0.48% increase from the previous week [86] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a 11.91% increase from the previous month and a 27.40% increase from the same period last year; the sales volume was 1.3953 million, a 10.55% increase from the previous month and a 26.84% increase from the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative winning bid power of domestic energy storage was 41.09GW/111.43GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 134,800 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous week. The lithium salt factory inventory is 34,700 tons, a 4.85% decrease from the previous week [86] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external purchase is 77,806 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease from the previous week; the production profit is - 7,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 727 yuan/ton from the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, pushing up prices. In the medium to long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [86]

Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main contract of polysilicon continued to weaken. The closing price of the PS2511 contract was 48,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.43%. The open interest was 91,009 lots, with a net increase of 6,022 lots [4] Market Outlook - Polysilicon has reached a stalemate, with the price operating range between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan. Policy-driven factors take precedence over fundamental factors, but there has been no more-than-expected policy drive since September. The supply-side's expected production control is within expectations, and the implementation of new energy consumption standards has a limited effect on capacity contraction to achieve supply-demand balance. Other market rumors have not been realized. Therefore, there is no more-than-expected policy drive. The spot price is running strongly, but the supply-demand relationship has not significantly improved. The downward pressure on the price range comes from the less-than-expected policy intensity and weak fundamentals. The support level of 45,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton comes from policy support, but the upward driving force is also insufficient, and the overall trend is wide-range fluctuations [4] Market News - On October 10, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 8,140 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Regarding the notice on improving the price mechanism to promote the nearby consumption of new energy power generation, the power source of nearby consumption projects should be connected to the user side at the property boundary point between the user and the public power grid. The proportion of the annual self-generated electricity of new energy in the total available power generation should not be less than 60%, and the proportion in the total electricity consumption should not be less than 30%. For new projects starting from 2030, this proportion should not be less than 35%. The project should have the condition of sub-metering, and the power grid enterprise should install metering devices at the power generation, plant power consumption, grid connection, self-use, and energy storage gates to accurately measure the electricity data of each link [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1][5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory of over 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and it is advisable to go long at low prices with caution [2][4][12] - The progress of platform companies in the polysilicon sector has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline in the market. However, it may be premature to declare their failure. The judgment that spot prices will not fall in October is maintained. The PS2511 contract is significantly at a discount, and the PS2512 contract is basically at par. It is advisable to consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][14][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 45 yuan/ton to 8,685 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 2,395 yuan/ton to 48,965 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - Compared to the end of September, Xinjiang added 3 furnaces, and Yunnan reduced 1 furnace. Northern large - scale factories are increasing production, while some southern silicon factories are starting to reduce production slightly and may significantly cut production at the end of October. It is expected that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to more than 20, and in Sichuan to around 35. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.54 million tons. Downstream demand is for essential purchases. If the eastern base of Xinjiang large - scale factories opens 50 furnaces, the industrial silicon may accumulate about 40,000 tons of inventory from September to October and deplete about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If 60 furnaces are opened, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a small amount in December [2][12] 3.3 Organic Silicon Market Conditions - The price of organic silicon remained flat this week. Some production facilities are under maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate is 71.95%, the weekly output is 47,600 tons (a decrease of 1.04% month - on - month), and the inventory is 42,900 tons (a decrease of 1.61% month - on - month). The operating rate has declined, supply has shrunk, and with the support of previous order fulfillment, monomer factories' inventory has been digested to some extent. Enterprises are more willing to hold prices, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [12][13] 3.4 Polysilicon Market Conditions - The spot price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. In September, the average transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and a small number of orders reached 53 yuan/kg before the National Day. The large - scale transactions in October have not started yet. The production schedule for October has been further increased to 138,000 tons. There are rumors that the south - western base of leading enterprises will gradually reduce production during the dry season at the end of October. As of October 9, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 240,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' supply. Although production restrictions have not been implemented, sales restrictions are still in place, making the monthly supply - demand situation tighter than shown in the balance sheet. Considering the inventory distribution and production pressure in downstream sectors, the spot price of polysilicon may remain flat [3][14] 3.5 Silicon Wafer Market Conditions - The price of silicon wafers remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.35/1.40/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule for October was 55.68GW (a decrease of 3.4GW month - on - month). As of October 9, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.78GW (an increase of 0.55GW month - on - month). The inventory is within a reasonable range, and future prices are expected to remain stable [15] 3.6 Battery Cell Market Conditions - The price of battery cells remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells remained at 0.32/0.29/0.31 yuan/watt. Benefiting from domestic centralized demand, some battery manufacturers raised the price of G12 battery cells to 0.32 yuan/W. As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.97GW (an increase of 2.93GW month - on - month). Due to the National Day holiday, the inventory has accumulated but is still under control. The domestic centralized orders are acceptable. India announced the final anti - dumping "suggested" tax rate on imported batteries and components from China on September 29, with a planned three - year levy period starting in 1 - 3 months. To avoid taxes, the Indian market may continue to stockpile batteries, and short - term battery exports are expected to increase again and remain high until the end of the year [16] 3.7 Component Market Conditions - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly fulfilled previous orders, with the mainstream delivery price ranging from 0.63 to 0.69 yuan/watt. The delivery price for large - scale customers of distributed projects was between 0.66 and 0.69 yuan/watt, and a small number of transactions were above 0.7 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (a decrease of 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule for October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The rush to install to meet the 14th Five - Year Plan target supports demand in October, but considering the poor tendering situation this year, the component demand from November to December may be pessimistic. Components are under pressure from rising raw material costs and price increases of auxiliary materials such as glass and adhesive films. With policy support, component prices will eventually rise, but terminal demand may decline. It is expected that component prices will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [17] 3.8 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: It is advisable to go long at low prices with higher probability of success but be cautious when chasing long positions [4][18][19] - Polysilicon: Consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][19] 3.9 Hot News - GCL Technology completed the first batch of subscriptions. The second batch will be completed on November 7th and 19th. After two rounds, it will receive approximately 5.446 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 5 billion yuan). The funds will be used for polysilicon capacity adjustment, R & D and production of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, and general working capital [20] - The 15,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project in Angola has been fully put into operation. The second - phase project plans to invest 100 million US dollars to produce 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials, and the construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [21] - The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on industrial silicon imports from Angola starting from October 1st, and also impose high tariffs on imports from other countries [21]

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 仓单注册叠加宏观情绪偏弱 多晶硅短期偏弱运行 工业硅：短期供需偏宽松，盘面偏震荡运行 市场分析 价格：10月10日当周，本周工业硅期货维持震荡运行，主力合约小幅震荡。现货方面，10月供应端维持增长，节 后工业硅现货成交价格小幅回落。据SMM统计，10月10日，SMM华东不通氧553#在9200-9400元/吨；通氧553#在 9400-9500元/吨；521#在9500-9700元/吨；441#在9600-9700元/吨；421#在9600-9800元/吨；421#有机硅用在9800-10300 元/吨；3303#在10500-10600元/吨。 供应：本周供应端增加，周度产量小幅增加，根据SMM统计，样本厂家周度产量6.18万吨，环比增加3600吨。根 据百川统计数据，目前金属硅总炉数 796 台，本周金属硅开炉数量与上周相比增加 3 台，截至 10月 10 日，中国 金属硅开工炉数 313 台，整体开炉率 39.32%。 需求：下游铝合金方面，本周铝板带箔产量 208845 吨，产量较上周减少。铝棒产量 297675 吨，产量较上周增 加约 3150 吨，产 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

供需失衡未有扭转 工业硅弱于多晶硅运行 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 工业硅月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 多晶硅月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃/纯碱） 2025-07-09：《光伏电力行业专题报 告： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon remains stable, and the inventory has increased on a weekly basis. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure and weak price transmission downstream. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,650 yuan/ton and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 176,563 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,774, a decrease of 209 from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon and 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in other regions were slightly stable [1]. - As of October 9, the total social inventory of industrial silicon was 545,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from before the National Day. The ordinary social warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 425,000 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC monomer production enterprises' operating rate was about 71%, and most enterprises had pre - sold orders. The stable raw material cost provided strong cost support, and the monomer factories were willing to hold prices [2]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations. For the dry - season contracts, consider going long at low prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 51,280 yuan/ton and closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 84,987 lots (87,359 the previous day), and the trading volume was 201,311 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.00 (a 6.19% increase), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.78GW (a 3.39% increase). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (-0.10% change), and the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW (-6.89% change) [4][5]. - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [5][6]. - During the National Day, the polysilicon market transactions were light, and there was obvious resistance to high - priced resources. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and was expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5]. Strategy - In the short term, conduct range operations, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Group 1 - Daqo Energy's stock increased by 2.12% on October 9, with a trading volume of 671 million yuan, and a net financing purchase of 700,400 yuan for the day [1] - As of October 9, the total margin balance for Daqo Energy was 862 million yuan, with a financing balance of 860 million yuan, accounting for 1.37% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] - On the same day, Daqo Energy had a short selling activity with 5,200 shares repaid and 6,166 shares sold, resulting in a selling amount of 180,900 yuan, with a short balance of 66,400 shares, also indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, Daqo Energy had 35,100 shareholders, a decrease of 2.64% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.71% to 15,763 shares [2] - For the first half of 2025, Daqo Energy reported a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.15 billion yuan, a decline of 71.10% [2] - Daqo Energy has distributed a total of 9.743 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 8.588 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2]