丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 2025 年宠物食品中报业绩前瞻：出口代工受 关税影响，618 大促国产高端品牌全面崛起 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 618 大促国产高端品牌全面崛起，头部企业品牌矩阵优势扩大，弗列加特、领先天猫 排名提升明显，预计二季度乖宝、中宠自有品牌保持 30%+高增长。外销层面，2025Q2 猫狗零 食对美出口额同比下滑 18.1%，对美出口业务受关税扰动影响，乖宝宠物二季度外销收入预计 下滑 10%左右，中宠股份受益于美国工厂布局，二季度外销收入预计保持 15%左右增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 顾熀乾 卜凡星 SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490519060003 SFC：BQT624 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 2025 年宠物食品中报业绩前瞻：出口代工受关 2] 税影响，618 大促国产高端品牌全面崛起 [Table_Summary2] 2025 年 618 大促国产高 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" process in the pig farming industry and suggests seizing investment opportunities in high-quality pig farming companies. It highlights the expected improvement in industry profitability and stability due to capacity control measures [3][4]. - The report also notes that the pet food industry is experiencing a resurgence, with expectations for mid-year reports to positively impact certain companies, despite potential challenges from U.S.-China trade tensions affecting Q2 export performance [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.0%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.8%. The top five gainers included Shenyuan Biological (+27.7%) and Andeli (+13.6%), while the top five losers included Dayu Water-saving (-10.3%) and ST Tianshan (-10.0%) [3][4]. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs was 14.02 yuan/kg as of August 3, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.6%. The average weight of market pigs was 127.98 kg, down 0.50 kg from the previous week. The price of weaned piglets fell slightly to 429 yuan/head, down 11 yuan from the previous week [3][4]. - The report stresses the need to focus on high-quality pig farming companies as the industry moves towards a phase of stable and high-quality development, with expected improvements in profitability and valuation for leading companies like Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuffs [3][4]. Poultry Farming - For white feather broilers, the average selling price of commercial broiler chicks rose to 2.33 yuan/chick, a week-on-week increase of 45.6%. The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.35 yuan/kg, up 2.2% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability for yellow feather broilers as the traditional consumption peak season approaches, suggesting a focus on companies like Lihua Stock [3][4]. Animal Health - The report indicates a recovery in animal health companies' performance due to improved profitability in pig farming and rising demand for vaccines. The industry saw a 15.8% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies like Huisheng Biological and Kexin Biological are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. foreign policy and trade dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, highlighting potential economic bifurcation and investment opportunities in technology sectors due to shifting geopolitical landscapes [2][5][11]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is experiencing a shift, with China taking a more dominant role in negotiations compared to previous years [2][5]. - The potential for a "tariff spiral" is noted, drawing parallels to historical events in the 1930s, which could impact global trade and economic conditions [1][5]. - The U.S. currently accounts for 27% of global consumption, with strong performance in the Nasdaq indicating robust corporate earnings [6][20]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The demand for AI technologies is experiencing exponential growth, benefiting U.S. tech giants and potentially impacting A-shares in sectors like optical modules [2][20]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" in China emphasizes investment in technology, with high demand for computing power, servers, and semiconductors expected to persist throughout the year [2][18]. - The article suggests a focus on defensive asset classes such as bonds and utility stocks, as well as sectors related to security and technology, in light of geopolitical tensions [8][11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The article indicates that corporate profitability may face deflationary pressures due to increased costs from tariffs and trade restrictions [8][11]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by high volatility and structural rotation, suggesting a need for strategic investment approaches [8][11]. - The anticipated return of capital to the U.S. markets is expected to favor domestic technology and debt markets, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" objectives [18][20].

Group 1 - The film "浪浪山小妖怪" has achieved a box office of over 86 million yuan within a day of its release, showcasing the commercial value of IP development [1] - Over 400 licensed derivative products were launched simultaneously with the film, indicating a comprehensive approach to IP commercialization [1] - Companies within the related industry chain are expected to enhance performance through diversified monetization strategies, accelerating the restructuring of the cultural industry value chain [1] Group 2 - Lululemon's "Summer Fun Challenge" in Shanghai attracted nearly 6,000 participants and 1,500 teams, highlighting the effectiveness of community marketing strategies [2] - The event reinforces brand loyalty and is likely to boost sales, providing support for the company's stock price [2] - The sportswear sector is gaining market favor due to increased consumer participation, reflecting economic vitality and consumer confidence [2] Group 3 - Delisi has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xiamen Haifusheng Food Group and New Sanhe (Yantai) Food Co., focusing on product supply, market expansion, and freeze-dried pet food R&D [3] - This collaboration aims to leverage complementary advantages and create development opportunities in the growing pet economy sector [3] - The entry of traditional meat product companies into the pet food industry may intensify market competition and drive technological upgrades within the sector [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the low prices of piglets and the high average weight of market pigs, indicating a significant expectation gap in the pig sector [1][2] - The dairy and beef sectors are experiencing a potential new cycle, with a focus on the recovery of milk prices and the initiation of a beef super cycle [3][4] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports, reflecting the growth of the pet economy [5][6] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and demand recovery, particularly in the white and egg-laying chicken segments [7][8] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biological breeding strategies [9][10] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to market share growth and consistent performance of leading companies like Haida Group [11][12] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of August 2, the average price of pigs is 14.35 CNY/kg, down 3.1% from the previous week, with a profit of approximately 141 CNY per head for self-breeding [1][12] - The price of piglets has reached a new low for the year, with 7kg piglets priced at 429 CNY/head [1][12] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability in the pig sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][13] Beef Sector - The average price of live cattle is 26.49 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [3][14] - The report indicates that the dairy industry is nearing the end of a capacity reduction phase, with significant losses expected to drive a rebound in milk prices [4][15] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with notable sales figures reported for cat and dog food [5][16] - Exports of pet food have increased, with a total of 16.79 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [5][16] Poultry Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of breeding imports and the potential for price increases in yellow chickens due to recovering demand [6][7] - The average price of egg-laying chickens is expected to remain high due to import restrictions [7][21] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through improved agricultural practices and the promotion of biotechnology [9][23] - Key recommendations include investing in leading seed companies and agricultural resource firms [9][23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and strong performance [11][24] - The report notes a significant recovery in the aquaculture and feed sectors after a prolonged downturn [11][24]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant turbulence, with a sharp decline in European and American stock markets, reminiscent of the global market crash in April. However, the current situation is more complex than before [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was shocking, with only 70,000 jobs added and previous months' data revised down by 250,000, leading to a 90% error margin. This unexpected data has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 75% [1][3] - Northbound capital saw a net purchase of 68 billion yuan in July, marking a new high for the year, while the margin financing balance exceeded 1.94 trillion yuan, indicating that new capital is quietly positioning itself [1][3] Group 2 - The market at the 3600-point level has become a battleground for bulls and bears, with significant trading volume masking the reality of capital rotation among existing funds. The rapid sector rotation is evident, with broker stocks surging one day and funds quickly shifting to semiconductors [3][5] - Current policies differ from those in 2015, focusing on precise measures rather than broad liquidity injections. The central government's crackdown on low-price competition has included new energy sectors in supply-side reforms [3][5] - Policy benefits are reflected in the stock market, with steel and coal stocks seeing over 20% gains in two months, as leading companies previously affected by competition are now experiencing profit and valuation recovery [3][5] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified along three main lines: 1. Technology growth stocks, with significant order increases in AI and semiconductor sectors [5] 2. Cyclical stocks benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as rising aluminum prices and improved performance from companies like Zijin Mining and China Shenhua [5] 3. Consumer sector expectations, with a shift towards high-growth segments like functional beverages and pet food, while traditional high-end liquor sales remain flat [5] Group 4 - Risks are present, particularly during the earnings season, with some companies facing severe declines due to performance issues. For instance, a solid-state battery concept stock plummeted 40% in a week due to low production yield [7] - Foreign capital has been more aggressive than expected, with significant investments in companies like CATL and upgrades in ratings from major financial institutions [7] - The market is undergoing a transformation, with new regulations limiting large-scale sell-offs and a decrease in IPO approval rates, indicating a gradual resolution of liquidity risks [7][8] Group 5 - The most dangerous speculation involves high-leverage investments in thematic stocks, with some companies trading at unsustainable price-to-earnings ratios. A focus on "three low assets" (low valuation, low attention, low chip pressure) is recommended for safer investments [8] - The market's direction will depend on two catalysts: the financial opening details to be released at the Lujiazui Forum on August 18 and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could trigger a global risk-on mode [8] - The market sentiment is shifting, as evidenced by record high holdings in call options for the 50ETF and a significant short-covering ratio among hedge funds [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, the company achieved growth in net sales, organic sales, and earnings per share despite facing significant raw material pressure and negative foreign exchange [5][6] - Organic sales growth accelerated by 60 basis points to 2.4% in Q2, driven by improvements in North America and AfricaEurasia [5][6] - Gross margin was down year over year due to greater than anticipated raw material inflation and tariffs, with guidance for gross margin remaining roughly flat for 2025 [41][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company launched significant innovations across categories and closed the acquisition of Prime one hundred, a leading fresh pet food brand in Australia [5][6] - Hill's brand saw mid-single-digit organic growth across almost every hub, with a balanced contribution from volume and price [48][49] - The total relaunch of core brands was strong in Latin America, with good incremental share and growth [26][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America showed improvement in volume, although the overall consumer sentiment remains cautious [20][21] - Latin America experienced a slight deceleration in categories, particularly in Brazil, while Mexico showed some improvement [28][29] - The Asia market faced softness, particularly in urban markets in India and challenges in the Holly and Hazel business in China [81][84] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its long-term growth strategy, focusing on household penetration and brand health as key drivers of organic sales growth [9][10] - A productivity initiative was announced, aiming for $200 to $300 million in charges over three years, focusing on optimizing the supply chain and enhancing innovation capabilities [18][92] - The company is prioritizing innovation, particularly in premium products, and leveraging AI for revenue growth management [8][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the second half of 2025, expecting modest improvements in category growth and maintaining a strong innovation pipeline [90][91] - The company acknowledged the challenges posed by high raw material costs and tariffs but remains focused on driving value through innovation and pricing strategies [41][62] - Management highlighted the importance of balancing top-line growth with margin restoration, particularly in North America [106] Other Important Information - The company is actively leveraging price pack architecture to appeal to consumers seeking value, with a focus on both premium and entry-level products [7][100] - The company has stopped producing private label products as of July, which will impact the P&L in the second half of the year [52][78] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on the restructuring program and U.S. category growth - Management discussed the productivity initiatives aimed at accelerating growth and optimizing resources, while acknowledging a cautious consumer environment in North America [14][20] Question: Assessment of the total relaunch and Latin America performance - The total relaunch has been strong in Latin America, with good growth and share gains, although some caution remains in Brazil [26][28] Question: Gross margin outlook and raw material cost drivers - Gross margin was impacted by raw material inflation, particularly in palm oil and fats, with guidance remaining flat for 2025 [41][42] Question: Performance of Hill's brand and private label impact - Hill's brand showed strong growth, particularly in therapeutic products, while the exit from private label production will affect future comparisons [49][78] Question: Sales run rate expectations and restructuring details - Management expects a modest improvement in sales run rate in the second half, driven by advertising and innovation, with restructuring focusing on optimizing resources [90][92] Question: Innovation strategy within the 2030 plan - The company plans to enhance innovation capabilities, focusing on breakthrough products and improving agility in bringing new products to market [65][68] Question: Category trends and market outlook - Management anticipates a modest improvement in category growth across markets, with some categories expected to recover more slowly than others [110]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ), confirmed that its pet food products are not affected by the recent tariff adjustments under the USMCA agreement, thus having no impact on its Canadian operations [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The company's pet food production complies with the relevant provisions of the USMCA and is not included in the recent tariff adjustments [1] - As a result, the recent tariffs have not affected the company's business in Canada [1] Group 2: Sales Channels - The company emphasizes the importance of developing various market channels and will evaluate its operational strategies, including channel expansion, based on its business planning and market conditions [1]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The July 2025 Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the integration of high-quality development with short-term economic growth, highlighting the need for flexible and anticipatory macro policies to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market [6][7] - The meeting set a GDP growth target of 5.3% for the first half of 2025, indicating a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals [6] - The focus on effective demand release and consumption growth was reiterated, with specific actions proposed to stimulate service consumption and expand commodity consumption [6][7] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Analysis - The agricultural sector showed a 3.62% increase in the week of July 21-27, 2025, with significant performance in sub-industries such as other planting, pig farming, and poultry feed [9] - Pig prices experienced a slight decline, with average prices in key provinces reported at 13.60, 15.54, and 14.13 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 0.37%, 0.32%, and 1.74% respectively [9] - The feed industry is expected to see a recovery due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving conditions in the breeding sector, with companies like Haida Group positioned for growth [9] Group 3: Technology and Investment Trends - Meta and Microsoft have significantly increased their capital expenditure (CAPEX) forecasts for 2025, with Meta's CAPEX projected to be between 66-72 billion USD, up from a previous estimate of 64-72 billion USD [11] - The establishment of large-scale AI data centers by Meta is expected to enhance the penetration of HVDC technology in China, with recommendations for companies like Zhongheng Electric as key players in this sector [10][11] - The overall performance of major tech companies has exceeded expectations, providing a strong foundation for future CAPEX growth [11]

Core Insights - The rising temperatures have made pet ice cream a new trend in the pet consumption market, driven by the need for pet cooling solutions and emotional interaction [1][2] - The online platform Douyin reports that related topics have nearly 4.5 million views, indicating significant consumer interest [1] Market Dynamics - Multiple brands are adopting differentiated strategies to capture the emerging pet ice cream market, leading to a diversification of the pet consumption landscape [1][2] - A specific product, a dragon fruit-flavored pet ice cream, has sold over 8,000 units on Taobao, highlighting strong demand [2] Consumer Behavior - Pet ice cream not only serves a cooling function but also fulfills emotional needs for pet owners, with 75% of pet owners purchasing interactive snacks [3] - The trend reflects a shift in younger pet owners viewing pets as family members, willing to invest in premium products for their pets' quality of life [3] Industry Growth Potential - Despite being a niche category, the pet ice cream market shows growth potential due to rising demand for personalized and functional pet food [3] - The maturation of the supply chain is leading to lower production costs, resulting in more cost-effective products entering the market [3] Challenges and Future Outlook - Currently, pet ice cream is primarily a seasonal product, which limits market potential [4] - For long-term growth, the industry needs to overcome seasonal limitations by continuously optimizing products and enhancing consumer experiences [4]