新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月16日收盘主力合约PVC2509,涨跌-1.49%,成交量125.14万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为11401手。 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 国泰君安 | 318,798 | -67,699 | 中财期货 | 106,438 | -1,086 | 国泰君安 126,457 | | 5,668 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 260,914 | -126,740 | 中信期货 | 53,256 | -1,783 | 中信期货 | 76,394 | -5,051 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 206,503 | -70,203 | 国泰君安 | 44,963 | -1,370 | 永安期货 | 55,944 | 4,194 | | ব | 浙商期货 | 105,864 | -20,753 | 信达期货 | 39,416 | 598 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The current market has entered the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, and there is a competition in the market regarding the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The reduction in India's production and the increase in Thailand's production are already facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixed powder and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market has mainly been trading on the expectation of Brazilian sugar production increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 48.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price decline, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6000 - 6030, and sell call options (SR507C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 60 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5850 - 5870, and sell put options (SR507P5800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The main contradiction in the current sugar market is the uncertainty of Brazilian sugar production during the new crushing season, while the situations in India and Thailand are relatively stable, and the domestic situation has little change after relevant restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing [4]. 3.3 Bullish Factors - As of the end of March, the national sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons (26.64%), and the cumulative sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster year - on - year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than the same period last year. The cane crushed was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) compared to the same period last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) compared to the same period last year. The final output may be less than 26 million tons [5]. - China has suspended the import of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - As of May 6, 37 sugar mills in Yunnan have completed the crushing process, 8 less than the same period last year. The crushing capacity of the completed mills is 134,400 tons per day, a decrease of 24,600 tons per day compared to the same period last year. 15 sugar mills have not completed the crushing, and the planned crushing time has been postponed due to rainfall [5]. - In the second half of April in the central - southern region of Brazil, 17.725 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a year - on - year decrease of 49.35%. The sugar production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.79%, and the ethanol production decreased by 35.37% to 985 million liters. The sugar - to - cane ratio was 45.82%, compared with 44.22% in the previous season. The crushing volume was lower than expected due to rainfall in late April [5]. 3.4 Bearish Factors - Starting from May 9, there has been a lot of rainfall in Guangxi, alleviating the previous drought situation [12]. - Analysis agency JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/2026 crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [12]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/2025 crushing season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [12]. 3.5 Sugar Price Data - **Spot Price**: On May 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 6120, down 20 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Liuzhou, it was 6160, down 10 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; in Kunming, it was 5910, down 10 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week; in Rizhao, it was 6260, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week [10]. - **Futures Price**: On May 16, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5723, with a daily decline of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SR03 was 5693, with a daily decline of 0.52% and a weekly increase of 0.25%; SR05 was 6000, with a daily decline of 1.15% and a weekly decline of 0.78%; SR07 was 5936, with a daily decline of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.2%; SR09 was 5855, with a daily decline of 0.53% and a weekly increase of 0.27%; SR11 was 5774, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 0.23% [9]. - **Import Price**: On May 16, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4919, up 65 from the previous day and up 33 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6264, up 85 from the previous day and up 44 from the previous week. The in - quota import price of Thai sugar was 4884, up 65 from the previous day and up 40 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 6218, up 85 from the previous day and up 52 from the previous week [11].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/16 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | | | 6 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The current contradiction in the apple market revolves around the production volume expectation of the new production season, and the market is in a game over the fruit - setting situation in the production areas [3] Summary by Directory Apple Price Range Prediction - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7500 - 8500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 99.2% [3] Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 8000 - 8100 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a new - crop apple yield reduction, and high purchase prices, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7500 - 7600 [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Qilu Yuanquan, the largest delivery warehouse in the eastern production area, was suspended from delivery business by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, indicating stricter delivery quality inspection requirements and being unfavorable to the delivery side [4] - The inventory in the production areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and a faster de - stocking speed than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures price [4] - Unstable weather in the production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, possibly leading to a large - scale yield reduction [4] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Although the production areas experienced gale, cooling, and dry - hot wind weather in April, it is too early to estimate the yield, and there are doubts about the results of current research reports indicating a large - scale yield reduction due to poor fruit - setting [5] Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices of different contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly changes on May 16, 2025. For example, AP01 closed at 7711 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly decrease of 0.12% [5] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commodity 70, etc.) also had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 with no daily or weekly change [5] - Other indicators such as盘面利润 (futures profit), 交割理论价格 (theoretical delivery price), 主力基差 (main contract basis), etc. also showed corresponding changes [5] Apple Inventory - On May 16, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory data from Steel Union was 195.1 with a weekly decrease of 33.76, and the data from Zhuochuang was 165.82 with a weekly decrease of 25.37 [7] - The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) also showed weekly decreases [7] - The arrival vehicle numbers and their weekly changes in some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) were provided [7]

寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/05/16 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 34.52% | 77.1% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1400 | 19.66% | 10.9% | source： 南华研究 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 玻 | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心玻璃 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 1100 | | 璃 | 理 | ...

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓29317、国泰君安，总持仓23410、银河期货，总持仓19623；空头前三席位 为永安期货，总持仓39362、国泰君安，总持仓37922、中信期货，总持仓26325； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓11345、增仓2669，银河期货、持仓16921、增仓2432，东吴期 货、持仓7116、增仓2359；多头减仓前三名分别是：光大期货、持仓6580、减仓-672，国信期货、持仓10731、减仓-316，华泰期 货、持仓13332、减仓-185； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓23260、增仓6267，国泰君安、持仓34195、增仓4625，中信期 货、持仓25554、增仓3869；空头减仓前三名分别是：一德期货、持仓10164、减仓-1526，银河期货、持仓15223、减仓-1257，方 正中期、持仓5799、减仓-1186。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年5月16日焦煤主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 ...

主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓7995、增仓4558，申银万国、持仓1932、增仓840，国泰君安期 货、持仓4282、增仓541；多头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓1387、减仓-359，华泰期货、持仓1423、减仓-342，海证期 货、持仓865、减仓-232； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓5102、增仓1143，永安期货、持仓1597、增仓494，方正中期、持 仓2109、增仓249；空头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓2213、减仓-549，五矿期货、持仓2042、减仓-306，国泰君安期货、 持仓5340、减仓-274。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月16日多晶硅主力合约2507持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 増減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 40,148 | 12,410 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by the Shaanxi Securities and Futures Industry Association aims to enhance investor protection through an interactive and educational campaign on the Xi'an Metro, reaching a daily audience of over 100,000 passengers [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The campaign, titled "Caring for Investors, Working Together," is a month-long initiative launched on May 15, coinciding with National Investor Protection Day [1]. - Six institutions, including Western Securities and Kaiyuan Securities, collaborated to create themed metro carriages that provide financial education in an accessible format [1][3]. Group 2: Thematic Focus - Each of the six themed carriages focuses on different aspects of financial education: - Western Securities emphasizes "Basic Investment Services" with information on the three major stock exchanges in China [3]. - Kaiyuan Securities integrates cultural elements into financial education, using the "Tang Wind Figurine" to blend tradition with modernity [3]. - Western Futures focuses on "Futures Knowledge Popularization," addressing misconceptions about derivative markets [3]. - Chang'an Futures highlights "Preventing Illegal Securities and Futures Activities" through case studies [3]. - Maike Futures centers on "Risk Prevention," warning about high-risk investments and illegal financial traps [3]. - Zhongyou Securities uses cartoon illustrations to explain common investment misconceptions [3]. Group 3: Design and Interaction - The carriages feature a blue and white color scheme, symbolizing professionalism and stability in the Shaanxi capital market [5]. - Emergency service signs and thematic slogans are prominently displayed to enhance brand recognition [5]. - QR codes are utilized for interactive learning, allowing passengers to access in-depth educational content [5]. Group 4: Public Engagement - The campaign leverages the high foot traffic of the metro system, particularly in busy areas like the Qujiang Business District and High-tech Industrial Park [7]. - Modules designed for specific demographics, such as anti-fraud tips for the elderly and quick securities knowledge for office workers, improve information retention [7]. - On May 15, staff from the participating institutions engaged with passengers alongside the educational mascot "Qin Benben," promoting a fun and interactive learning environment [7]. Group 5: Future Directions - The initiative represents an innovative practice of the "Big Investor Protection" concept, transitioning from one-way communication to interactive experiences [13]. - The association plans to continue innovating in investor education methods, ensuring financial knowledge is understandable, learnable, and applicable [13].

Group 1 - The core event is the "Investment Education Protection: Guangdong Investment Strategy" micro-video competition, which was organized by the Guangdong Securities and Futures Industry Association, Southern Metropolis Daily, and Bay Finance Society, culminating in the announcement of winners just before the "5.15 National Investor Protection Publicity Day" [2][3] - The competition attracted 75 submissions from financial institutions in Guangdong (excluding Shenzhen), focusing on themes such as serving the real economy, investor protection, and social responsibility [2] - The awarded works addressed current financial market pain points, including AI scams, elderly investment traps, and the popularization of new financial products, utilizing innovative formats like short dramas and animations to make professional knowledge accessible to the public [2][3] Group 2 - A total of 19 works were awarded from the 75 entries, showcasing diverse themes, vibrant presentation styles, and profound educational content, effectively responding to the new "National Nine Articles" requirements for enhancing investor education [3] - The winning entries demonstrated a keen awareness of market pain points such as AI scams and the emotional needs of different age groups, employing innovative formats to engage audiences [3][4] Group 3 - The first prize-winning work, "Old Wu's Investment Journey: Companionship is the Best Prevention," highlights the emotional scams targeting elderly investors, emphasizing the importance of family companionship in fraud prevention [4] - The second prize-winning work, "AI Algorithm? Human Algorithm!" reveals the underlying logic of scams exploiting human greed through a hacker's perspective, combining technological insight with cautionary messages [5][6] - The third prize-winning works include "The Self-Narration of ST Stocks," which uses a personified approach to explain delisting rules and investment risks, and "315 Financial Anti-Fraud: Unveiling 'Fake' Securities Apps," which educates viewers on identifying fraudulent applications [8][9]

贵金属日报：波动较大 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月16日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格呈现反弹，10Y美债收益率回落伴随美指回调利多贵金属价格。降息预期方面，美联储 9月降息预期微升，昨晚公布的美PPI大幅低于预期，以及工业产出不及预期。国内黄金ETF昨日明显流 入，其中华安黄金ETF份额从5月14日的81.5亿份，回升至82.07亿份。最终黄金2506合约收报3243.9美 元/盎司，+1.74%；美白银2507合约收报于32.79美元/盎司，+1.07%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报 739.82元/克，-3.2%；SHFE白银2506合约收8008元/千克，-2.34% 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 8.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为63.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34.2%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为2.6%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率26.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.2%，累计降息50 ...