Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Major Asian stock markets delivered impressive results in 2025, with South Korea, Japan, and Indonesia all recording double-digit gains. The South Korean KOSPI index surged nearly 76%, marking its largest increase since 1999 [1] - The Japanese TOPIX index closed at a record high, surpassing the peak from the 1989 bubble era, with a yearly increase of 22% [1][6] - The Indonesian Jakarta Composite Index rose approximately 22%, achieving its best performance since 2014 [1][10] Group 2: South Korea's Market Drivers - The KOSPI's performance was notably driven by semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as strong performances in the defense and nuclear power sectors [1][2] - AI infrastructure investments emerged as a key growth driver, with companies like Hyosung Heavy Industries and Doosan Enerbility seeing stock increases of over 320% due to rising demand for data center power [4] - Analysts from major firms like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley predict further upside for the South Korean market, estimating at least a 20% increase in 2026, supported by strong earnings growth [5] Group 3: Japan's Market Dynamics - The TOPIX index's rise was attributed to a broadening buying base, with interest expanding from AI-related stocks to financial and domestic demand sectors [6][8] - The index experienced a significant drop earlier in the year due to tariff announcements but rebounded as trade war concerns eased and corporate earnings expectations improved [6] - Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed large caps for the first time since 2022, indicating an expanding market appeal [8] Group 4: Indonesia's Retail Investor Influence - The surge in the Indonesian stock market was primarily driven by local retail investors, who increased their participation significantly, despite a net outflow of $1 billion from foreign investors [10] - The number of retail investors in Indonesia grew fivefold to over 20 million, as they sought higher returns amid declining bond yields [10] - Analysts expect the Jakarta Composite Index to reach 11,000 points in the coming year, representing a 27% increase from current levels, supported by factors such as accelerated loan growth and low fixed-income returns [10]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to face a significant decline in delivery volumes, with a projected 15% year-over-year drop in Q4 and an estimated annual delivery range of 1.6 to 1.65 million vehicles for 2025, marking an 8% decrease compared to the previous year, indicating a second consecutive year of declining sales [1][3][5]. Group 1: Delivery Projections - Analysts predict Tesla's Q4 delivery volume to be around 422,850 vehicles, a 15% decrease year-over-year, which is more pessimistic than Bloomberg's previous estimate of 445,061 vehicles, reflecting a 10% decline [3][5]. - For the full year of 2025, Tesla's total deliveries are expected to be between 1.6 million and 1.65 million vehicles, representing an approximate 8% decline compared to 2024 [1][3]. - The anticipated decline in deliveries is attributed to the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit, increased global competition, and demand being pulled forward in Q3 as buyers rushed to purchase vehicles before the incentive expired [5][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Competition - The expiration of the federal tax credit has significantly impacted demand, leading to a soft market in North America and Europe, where traditional automakers like Chevrolet and Ford are expected to introduce affordable electric vehicles in the coming years [5][6]. - Despite the introduction of lower-priced models, such as the Model Y SUV and Model 3 compact sedan, demand remains under pressure due to the lack of tax incentives and intensified competition from both traditional and new electric vehicle manufacturers [5][6]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - Despite the slowdown in vehicle sales, Tesla's stock price has increased by over 14% year-to-date, although this performance lags behind the S&P 500 index's 17% gain [7]. - Investor enthusiasm is largely based on CEO Elon Musk's strategic focus on Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and improved autonomous driving technology, while electric vehicle sales continue to be the primary revenue source for the company [9]. - Recent developments, including a court ruling that reinstated Musk's previously revoked compensation plan and shareholder approval of a new compensation package tied to ambitious delivery targets, have contributed to positive investor sentiment [9].

美国在经济领域的决策失误，已经成为全球关注的焦点。这种失误不是偶然，而是源于长期的自负和对 国际格局的误读。 从贸易摩擦到技术竞争，美国原本以为能轻松维持领先地位，却在现实中屡屡碰壁。 这位经济学家直言，美国从未预料到中国能在现有规则体系内实现如此全面的赶超，这暴露了美国战略 规划的短板。 在全球经济一体化进程中，美国的这种判断偏差，不仅影响了自身发展，还加剧了国际贸易的不稳定 性。 回顾中美经济互动的历史，美国在过去几十年一直将中国视为一个需要引导的发展中经济体。 加入世贸组织后，中国通过改革开放逐步融入全球市场，美国则期待中国会按照西方模式演变。 然而，中国选择了适合自身国情的路径，注重长期规划和产业升级。这与美国依赖市场自发调节的模式 形成鲜明对比。 经济学家指出，美国低估了中国在关键领域的布局能力，比如在新能源产业，中国早在十多年前就开始 系统投资，而美国直到最近才匆忙跟进。这种时间差导致美国在竞争中处于被动。 在电动汽车领域，美国的失误尤为明显。中国通过构建完整的产业链，从原材料到整车制造，实现了成 本控制和规模效应。 相比之下，美国企业面临供应链依赖和成本高企的问题。即使施加高额关税，也难以扭转中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is facing significant sales contraction pressure in Q4 due to the expiration of U.S. tax credits and increasing global competition, with expectations of a second consecutive annual decline in delivery volume [1] Group 1: Q4 Delivery Expectations - Analysts predict Tesla's Q4 delivery volume to be 422,850 units, a 15% year-over-year decline, which is more pessimistic than Bloomberg's previous estimate of 445,061 units, reflecting a 10% drop [1] - This weak quarterly performance is expected to negatively impact the annual performance, with total deliveries for 2025 projected between 1.6 million and 1.65 million units, representing an approximately 8% year-over-year decline [1][4] - The decline in Q4 deliveries is largely attributed to the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September, which led buyers to purchase vehicles earlier in Q3 to secure the incentive [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - Despite the introduction of lower-priced versions of the Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan in October, demand remains pressured due to the lack of tax credits and intensified competition from traditional automakers and Chinese EV companies [4] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank indicate that the sales decline will be primarily driven by weak performance in North America and Europe, where competition is expected to increase significantly over the next two years [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Tesla's proactive disclosure of analyst estimates on its investor relations page is unusual, indicating a more cautious market outlook compared to external surveys [5] - Despite the slowdown in automotive sales, Tesla's stock price has increased by over 14% year-to-date, although this performance lags behind the S&P 500 index's 17% gain [6] - Investor enthusiasm is largely based on Musk's strategic focus on Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and improved autonomous driving technology, although electric vehicle sales remain the primary revenue source [8]

Group 1: Early Implementation of New Regulations - A series of new regulations will take effect on January 1, 2026, addressing various areas such as social security, early childhood education, electric vehicles, and cybersecurity, aimed at better responding to public concerns and enhancing development vitality [1] Group 2: Early Childhood Education Fee Regulations - The notification on improving kindergarten fee policies mandates that public kindergartens and non-profit private kindergartens implement government-guided pricing for tuition and accommodation fees, while for-profit private kindergartens will have market-regulated pricing [2] - A directory management system for kindergarten fees will be established, requiring public disclosure of service and additional fees, with any charges not listed or disclosed being prohibited [2] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Standards - The world's first mandatory energy consumption limit standard for electric vehicles will be implemented, requiring necessary technical upgrades for new products, with a specific limit of 15.1 kWh per 100 km for vehicles weighing around 2 tons, leading to an average increase of approximately 7% in driving range [2] Group 4: Taxation and Credit Policies - The new Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law will come into effect, marking significant progress in establishing legal frameworks for taxation in China, covering 14 out of 18 existing tax types [3] - A one-time credit repair policy will be enacted, allowing automatic adjustments to credit reports for overdue records under specific conditions, which will not be displayed if certain criteria are met [3] Group 5: National Park and Environmental Protection - The National Park Law encourages public participation in conservation efforts and prioritizes hiring local residents for ecological management positions within national parks [4] - The revised cybersecurity law will enhance risk monitoring and assessment related to artificial intelligence, supporting foundational research and ethical standards in AI development [4] Group 6: Legal Framework for Virtual Property - The revised civil case regulations will now include disputes over virtual property as a recognized category, reflecting the evolving nature of legal relationships in the digital space [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant reduction of a supply contract between South Korean battery materials supplier L&F and Tesla, highlighting the challenges in the electric vehicle market and the implications for battery material supply [2][6]. Group 1: Contract Reduction - L&F announced a drastic cut in its supply contract with Tesla from 3.83 trillion KRW to 973 million KRW, a reduction of 99%, due to changes in supply volume [2]. - The contract originally involved high-nickel cathode materials intended for the Cybertruck battery, with a supply period from January 2024 to December 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The reduction is attributed to a shift in the global electric vehicle market and battery supply conditions, necessitating adjustments in production plans [4]. - Despite the contract reduction, L&F's shipments of high-nickel products to major Korean battery manufacturers, including LG Energy, remain unaffected [2][4]. Group 3: L&F's Strategic Shift - L&F has begun to diversify its product offerings by entering the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) market, with plans to achieve mass production by around 2026 [4]. - The company aims to establish a new legal entity to focus on LFP cathode materials, targeting a production capacity of 60,000 tons [4]. Group 4: Tesla's Challenges - Tesla's order reduction for high-nickel materials is linked to weak market demand and delays in the Cybertruck model, which has faced multiple recalls and disappointing sales figures [8][9]. - The Cybertruck's sales in Q3 2025 were only 5,385 units, a 63% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, with an expected annual delivery of around 20,000 units, far below initial targets [8]. Group 5: Battery Production Issues - Tesla's challenges also include difficulties in the production of the 4680 battery, which was expected to significantly reduce costs but has not yet resolved production and yield issues [9]. - The company may increasingly rely on external suppliers for battery needs, as it has multiple partnerships with companies like CATL, LG Energy, and Panasonic [9].

什么意思呢？ 特斯拉 4680电池 的遮羞布，被供应商一把扯下。 上次财报电话会上，马斯克口中能向外供应的4680大电池，刚被材料供应商曝出双方合同价值已暴跌99.99%—— 这份合同在两年前签订之初，价值高达约29亿美元（约203亿元），但如今已经暴降到约4.7万元人民币，几乎归零。 据知情人士透露，这种材料正是特斯拉4680电池的核心材料，也是支撑特斯拉实现"降低电池成本、提升产能"目标的关键之一。 彼时合同一签订，外界多数声音都认为两家合作会逐渐深入。L&F甚至还曾为这个订单调整了生产计划，加大了高镍正极材料的产能投入。 不料两年过去，合作已发生巨变： 原本预想中的大单，没有按照轨迹兑现，几乎变成泡沫。 关于暴跌的原因，这家供应商没有大篇幅解释，只用"供货量发生变化"简单回应。 好像什么都没说，又好像什么都说了。 实则更早之前，曾毓群就已经给4680电池判了"死刑"。 特斯拉4680电池，供应商合同崩了 源头来自一家名为L&F公司的韩国电池材料供应商，刚发布了一份与特斯拉有关的公告。 公告显示，L&F在2023年和特斯拉签订过一份供货合同，价值约29亿美元（约203亿元），约定2024年1月到2025年 ...

Group 1: Education and Childcare - Non-profit private kindergartens will have their tuition and accommodation fees regulated by government guidance, while for-profit private kindergartens will have market-adjusted fees. A directory management system for fees will be established, requiring public disclosure of charges [2] - The new regulations will ensure that any fees not listed in the directory or not publicly disclosed cannot be charged [2] Group 2: Electric Vehicles - A mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption will be implemented, requiring necessary technical upgrades for new products. For vehicles weighing around 2 tons, the new standard mandates that energy consumption should not exceed 15.1 kWh per 100 km, which is expected to improve the average range of electric vehicles by approximately 7% [2] Group 3: Language and Communication - The revised National Common Language and Writing Law will take effect, promoting education and innovation in national language technology, and establishing new requirements for language use in cyberspace [2] Group 4: Taxation - The new Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law will come into effect, marking significant progress in the legal framework for taxation in China, with 14 out of 18 tax types now having established laws [3] Group 5: Personal Credit - A one-time credit repair policy will be introduced, allowing for automatic adjustments to credit reports based on repayment conditions, with certain overdue records being excluded from personal credit reports if specific criteria are met [3] Group 6: Environmental Protection - The National Park Law will encourage public participation in conservation efforts and prioritize hiring local residents for ecological management positions within national parks [3]

Group 1: Education and Childcare - New regulations require public and non-profit kindergartens to implement government-guided pricing for tuition and accommodation fees, while for-profit kindergartens will have market-regulated pricing. A detailed fee list must be published, and any charges not listed or publicized are prohibited [3]. Group 2: Electric Vehicles - A mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption will take effect, requiring new models to limit energy consumption to no more than 15.1 kWh per 100 km. This upgrade is expected to improve the average driving range by approximately 7% without changing battery capacity [3]. Group 3: Taxation - The new Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law will come into effect, marking significant progress in establishing legal frameworks for taxation in China, as 14 out of 18 tax types now have legal statutes [4]. Group 4: Personal Credit - A one-time credit repair policy will be implemented, allowing for automatic adjustments to credit reports for overdue payments made between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2025, provided certain conditions are met [4]. Group 5: Environmental Protection - The National Park Law will prioritize hiring local residents for ecological management positions and encourage public participation in conservation efforts [5]. Group 6: Cybersecurity - The revised Cybersecurity Law will enhance support for artificial intelligence research and development, focusing on risk monitoring and safety regulation to promote healthy AI development [5]. Group 7: Legal Framework for Digital Assets - The updated civil case regulations will now include disputes related to data and virtual property, reflecting the growing importance of digital assets in legal contexts [5].

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。周一现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80美元/盎司关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下， | | 纽约市场盘中一度大跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂金跌15%，现货黄金跌超5%。国内铂金、钯金双双封跌停； | | 沪银尾盘跳水，回吐全部日内10%涨幅，夜盘进一步下跌8.74%；沪金收盘跌近1%，夜盘进一步下跌4%。COMEX黄金期货收跌4.45%报4350.2美元/盎司，COMEX | | 白银期货收跌7.2%报71.64美元/盎司。 | | 中国将成为首个为央行数字货币计息的经济体。中国人民银行出台数字人民币行动方案，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 | | 2026年1月1日正式启动实施。届时，数字人民币钱包余额将按照活期存款计付利息，数字人民币将从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。 | | 12月29日开始，中国人民解放军东部战区组织陆军、海军、空军、火箭军等兵力，位台湾海峡、台岛北部、台岛西南、台岛东南、台岛以东等区域，组织"正 ...