Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 聚乙烯价差利润 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国泰君安期货·能源化工 聚乙烯：进口部分延期，单体有所扰动 国泰君安期货研究所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 日期：2025年11月23日 观点综述 1 本周PE观点：跌价估值压缩不明显，存供增需减预期 供应 总有效产能增速16%，上半年利润尚可，国产量增速18%，进口有同比下滑，但宽松的供应压制价格。PE总开工82.7%/-0.4%。周中天合创、万华、中 英、吉林石化等装置检修，损失量增加，开工下滑,集中在LD。下周上海、茂名石化计划检修，前期装置复产，供应环比回升。Q4检修计划同比略低， 预计供应维持宽松状态，且年底有环比增加预期，此外上游乙烯裂解利润低位，有部分供应扰动出现，关注规模及对PE端衍生品影响。 进口中东、美国货源有因运力周转不畅而延期到港，伊朗货11月或增，总体进口增加或集中在26年初。美国清库压 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated the process to include another batch of chemical substances in the priority control list to enhance the management of new pollutants and ensure ecological safety and public health [1][2] Group 1: Priority Control Chemical List - The third batch of the priority control chemical list includes 24 types of chemical substances, primarily affecting industries such as petrochemicals, plastics, rubber, pharmaceuticals, textiles, dyes, coatings, pesticides, leather, and electroplating [1] - The previous two batches of the priority control chemical list included a total of 40 types of chemical substances, which encompass hazardous materials like short-chain chlorinated paraffins, formaldehyde, mercury and its compounds, hexavalent chromium compounds, lead compounds, and various carcinogens [1][2] Group 2: Environmental Risk Management - The "New Pollutant Management Action Plan" aims to complete environmental risk screening and assessment for high-concern and high-usage chemical substances by 2025, and to establish a regulatory framework for managing toxic and harmful chemical substances [2][5] - The priority control chemical list focuses on substances that pose significant environmental and health risks, considering factors such as persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity to aquatic environments [2][3] Group 3: Implementation and Compliance - Companies are required to provide detailed information on the production and usage of chemicals listed in the priority control list, including quantities, types, and applications, as part of their environmental impact assessments [4] - Facilities involved in the production or storage of priority control chemicals must implement measures to prevent soil and groundwater contamination, including the installation of monitoring devices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as unchanged supply - demand patterns, slowing petrochemical inventory reduction, and insufficient downstream procurement willingness [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang's LDPE 1 line increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [1][4]. - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak - season end, with stable orders but lower - than - expected peak - season performance. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the lack of impact on Russian oil production from new sanctions and the potential for a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently [1]. 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 0.65% with a low of 6768 yuan/ton, a high of 6841 yuan/ton, and closed at 6770 yuan/ton below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3991 lots to 512,746 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6790 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6950 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory, and packaging film orders also slightly increased. However, the overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.85 million tons, 0.8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed [4]. - Raw materials: Brent crude oil's 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, while the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720 and $730 per ton respectively [4].

从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出9.59亿元，游资资金净流入1.76亿元，散户资金净流入 7.82亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，11月21日塑料板块较上一交易日下跌4.12%，佛塑科技领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3834.89，下跌2.45%。深证成指报收于12538.07，下跌3.41%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000859 | 国风新材 | 8.68 | 10.01% | 316.64万 | | 26.05亿 | | 605488 | 福莱新材 | 32.38 | 2.63% | 10.40万 | | 3.37亿 | | 603928 | 兴业股份 | 16.73 | 2.32% | 21.54万 | 1 | 3.54亿 | | 001359 | 平安电工 | 53.80 | 1.84% | - 3.28万 | | 1.75亿 | | 688203 | 海正生材 | 13.10 | 1.00% | ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry Employment Trends - The employment in the German automotive industry decreased by approximately 48,700 people year-on-year as of September 2025, marking a decline of 6.3%, with total employees dropping to 721,400, the lowest since Q2 2011 [1] - The automotive industry experienced the largest year-on-year employment decline among major industrial sectors with over 200,000 employees, despite remaining the second-largest industrial sector in Germany after mechanical engineering [1] - Within the automotive sector, suppliers faced significant layoffs, with employment in the automotive and engine manufacturing sector totaling 446,800, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [1] Group 2: Supplier Impact and Employment Statistics - Employment in the body, chassis, and trailer manufacturing sector saw a decline of 4.0%, with approximately 39,200 employees, while the automotive parts and accessories manufacturing sector experienced an 11.1% decrease, totaling around 235,400 employees [1] - Economists noted that the layoffs among suppliers were more pronounced than those among vehicle manufacturers, which is typical during economic downturns as manufacturers often shift cost pressures onto suppliers [1] Group 3: Broader Industrial Employment Trends - Other major industrial sectors in Germany also experienced varying degrees of layoffs, with the metal smelting and processing industry seeing a 5.4% year-on-year decline, and the data processing equipment, electronics, and optical products manufacturing sector declining by 3.0% [2] - The plastics and metal manufacturing industries also reported declines of 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively, both exceeding the average industrial decline [2] - Overall, German manufacturing employment totaled approximately 5.43 million as of September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 120,300, or 2.2% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of the plastic industry remains unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and downstream peak seasons, it is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [1][4]. - The end of the US government shutdown and the strengthening of refined oil crack spreads in Europe and the US led to a rebound in crude oil prices after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently. The agricultural film peak season is coming to an end, downstream operating rates are falling, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,779 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 11,929 lots to 516,737 lots [2]. Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,750 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,950 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $720 per ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets from October 27 to November 25, 2025, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and market prices of L and PP, influenced by factors such as futures trends, production enterprise price adjustments, and downstream demand. Important news covers various aspects such as corporate establishment, strategic cooperation, and industry development. Logical analyses consider factors like production volume, economic indicators, and industry indices to assess impacts on the market. Trading strategies suggest different actions for L and PP contracts, including holding, trying long or short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with daily changes ranging from - 0.67% to + 0.82%. Market prices showed partial increases, decreases, or mixed trends, with price changes in different regions ranging from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Downstream demand was generally weak, with factories showing low procurement enthusiasm and mostly making small - quantity or on - demand purchases [1][4][7]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also fluctuated, with daily changes from - 0.82% to + 0.34%. The market was characterized by narrow fluctuations, weak trends, or partial price adjustments. Downstream demand was cautious, with low inventory - building willingness and a preference for low - price sources [1][4][7]. Important News - **Corporate Events**: Include the establishment of new companies such as Wan华绿能 (东明) 清洁能源有限公司, strategic cooperation like the one between 中化塑料 and 陶氏化学, and corporate acquisitions such as 中国浙江艾昕尔丝袜公司's acquisition of 西班牙百年尼龙企业 Nylstar [7][16][23]. - **Industry Developments**: Involve the release of industry rankings, the implementation of new projects like 中国石油广西石化公司's 120 -万吨/年乙烯装置, and the issuance of industry - related policies such as 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025—2026 年)》[54][37][62]. - **Economic Data**: Include industrial production and sales data, PMI data, and logistics industry indices, which reflect the overall economic situation and industry trends [34][31][58]. Logical Analyses - **Supply - side Factors**: Consider factors such as domestic and international production volume changes of polypropylene, PE and PP capacity utilization rates, and inventory changes of relevant products [8][14][31]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Analyze factors like downstream industry demand (e.g., automotive, home appliance), economic policy uncertainty, and industry indices (e.g., PMI, logistics industry index) [2][34][31]. - **Other Factors**: Include stock index trends, freight index changes, and the relationship between different economic indicators [17][38][11]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggest different strategies for L and PP contracts, including holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach, and setting corresponding stop - loss points [2][5][8]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8]. - **Options Trading**: Usually, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8].

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a slight decline of 0.07% on November 20, with Guoen Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Top Gainers in the Plastic Sector - Zhangguang Co. (301092) saw a significant increase of 20.01%, closing at 41.02 with a trading volume of 116,300 shares and a turnover of 462 million yuan [1] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) rose by 10.04%, closing at 7.89 with a trading volume of 732,400 shares and a turnover of 577 million yuan [1] - Dongcai Technology (601208) increased by 10.01%, closing at 18.46 with a trading volume of 1,052,700 shares and a turnover of 1.926 billion yuan [1] Top Losers in the Plastic Sector - Tu'en Co. (002768) experienced a decline of 4.92%, closing at 53.13 with a trading volume of 25,000 shares and a turnover of 13.5 million yuan [2] - Weihai Bo (688718) fell by 4.26%, closing at 15.95 with a trading volume of 82,900 shares and a turnover of 138 million yuan [2] - Haizheng Biomaterials (688203) decreased by 4.00%, closing at 12.97 with a trading volume of 37,100 shares and a turnover of 48.77 million yuan [2] Capital Flow in the Plastic Sector - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 49.82 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 75.13 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 125 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Dongcai Technology (601208) had a net inflow of 509 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 26.42% of its total trading [3] - Zhangguang Co. (301092) experienced a net inflow of 103 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 67.61 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Guofeng New Materials (000859) had a net inflow of 20.19 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 15.44 million yuan [3]

格隆汇11月20日丨银禧科技(300221.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司的PPO业务材料分为PPO注塑用改性塑料 与化工合成的电子化学品PPO材料。PPO注塑用改性塑料是公司成熟的产品，共用改性塑料产线，产能 充足。公司的电子化学品PPO年设计产能为300吨，但受多种因素影响，实际产能远低于设计产能，目 前还在爬坡中。 （原标题：银禧科技(300221.SZ)：PPO注塑用改性塑料是公司成熟的产品，共用改性塑料产线，产能充 足） ...

Core Viewpoint - PPS resin, recognized as a high-performance specialty engineering plastic, is experiencing significant growth in production capacity and demand due to its superior properties and increasing applications in various industries [1][2][10]. Group 1: Industry Overview - PPS resin is a crystalline thermoplastic with a high melting point of 290°C and excellent thermal, chemical resistance, dimensional stability, flame retardancy, electrical properties, and mechanical performance [2]. - It is considered the sixth major specialty engineering plastic and one of the eight aerospace materials [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Situation - Global PPS resin production capacity is projected to reach 210,000 tons per year by 2024, an increase of 34,000 tons from 2020 [6][7]. - In China, the nominal capacity for PPS resin is expected to be 92,000 tons per year in 2024, with an effective capacity of 68,000 tons and a production volume of 50,000 tons, resulting in an effective operating rate of 73% [8][10]. Group 3: Market Demand - Global consumption of PPS resin is anticipated to grow from 99,000 tons in 2020 to 129,000 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.8% [10][11]. - China is projected to account for 43.4% of global PPS resin consumption by 2024, with significant demand driven by the automotive, environmental, and electronics sectors [12][14]. Group 4: Application Structure - The automotive industry is expected to be the largest consumer of PPS resin in China, accounting for about 32% of total consumption, followed closely by environmental filter bags and other textile applications at approximately 30% [16]. - PPS resin is increasingly used in high-end manufacturing sectors, including aerospace, due to its performance advantages [16]. Group 5: Development Trends - The global PPS resin market is set to evolve towards product performance optimization, increased penetration rates, and industry chain integration [17]. - By 2030, China's PPS resin consumption is projected to reach 94,000 tons, driven by trends in lightweight automotive manufacturing and home appliance modernization [17].