持续弱势 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 17 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内偏弱震荡，现货收单热情不及昨日，价格小涨后成交不 畅，行情稳定为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多 在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要执 行出口集港订单。尿素日产维持在 19 万吨左右进行，一方面山西尿素装置技改， 另一方面阅兵检修减产，前期产量有下滑，但随着装置复产及产能的投放，日产 依然预计偏高位运行，压制尿素价格。需求端，价格跌至低位后，下游拿货情绪 转好。复合肥工厂开工率偏低主要一方面终端需求疲软，前期备货已近 78 成， 另一方面厂内成品库存高企。虽然目前工厂利润尚且可观，但企业依然以库存去 化为重点，后续高位开工的几率不大。本期库存依然表现为增加，且目前库存高 企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整体来说，盘面筑底中，后续有反 弹机会，上方关注 1730 元/吨附近压力，但宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动。 【期现行情】 【冠通研究】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1685 元/吨开盘，低开低走，日内偏弱震荡， 最终收于 16 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings (002539) has been focusing on brand building and sales channel expansion in 2023, which strengthens its market competitiveness and lays a solid foundation for the release of new production capacity for compound fertilizers [1] Brand Building - The company is concentrating on developing core brands such as "Jia Shili" and "Gui Hu," creating unique IP activities around product positioning, and continuously optimizing terminal images to enhance brand awareness and market influence [1] Sales Channel Expansion - The company is advancing channel cultivation through high-frequency terminal promotions to stimulate sales activity. Additionally, it is optimizing its distributor system, empowering distributors, and improving both the quantity and quality of distributors to enhance market coverage and penetration capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yuntu Holdings (002539) is advancing its "Salt Chemical Circular Economy Industry Chain Green Transformation and Product Structure Adjustment Upgrade Project," which includes the construction of production lines for 700,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 600,000 tons of water-soluble compound fertilizer, 400,000 tons of slow-release compound fertilizer, and 1,500,000 tons of refined salt [1] Summary by Categories - Project Progress - The main structure of the project has been fully completed, and the installation of core equipment is nearly finished [1] - Civil engineering finishing work is progressing steadily, and the construction of public supporting facilities is underway [1] - Future Capacity Release - The overall progress of the project is smooth, laying a solid foundation for future capacity release [1]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable from September 8 to 14, with a slight decrease in production material prices by 0.2% compared to the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw a minor decline, with grapes, citrus, and apples decreasing by 3.1%, 2.1%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price for 30 types of vegetables was 4.75 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, with cucumber, broccoli, and cauliflower decreasing by 8.7%, 4.4%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for aquatic products showed a slight decline, with crucian carp, carp, and grass carp decreasing by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with pork priced at 19.97 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.6%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while soybean oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight increase, with eggs and broilers rising by 3.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene declining by 1.6%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively, while methanol increased by 0.5% [2] - Coal prices showed a stable decline, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 1001 yuan and 756 yuan per ton, decreasing by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively, while smokeless block coal remained unchanged at 1136 yuan per ton [2] - Fertilizer prices continued to decline, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices experienced a slight decrease, with 92-octane gasoline, 0-octane diesel, and 95-octane gasoline dropping by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight retreat, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with high-speed wire, rebar, and welded steel pipes priced at 3547 yuan, 3366 yuan, and 3795 yuan per ton, all decreasing by 0.1%, while ordinary medium plates, hot-rolled strips, and channel steel increased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight increase, with aluminum and zinc rising by 0.8% and 0.6%, while copper prices remained unchanged [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: After the export window, carry out reverse arbitrage on UR01 - 05 at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the transactions improved. After the manufacturers raised the quotes, the transactions were average. Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand. - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,686 yuan/ton (+3). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,660 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 36 yuan/ton (+7), in Henan it was - 26 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu it was - 36 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of September 16, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand will still be relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 16, 2025, the urea production profit was 120 yuan/ton (+10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of September 16, 2025, the export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+0). September is still the export window period, urea exports continue, the export rhythm accelerates, the port inventory is destocked, and the export volume in August and September is promising [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 16, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.82% (+4.74%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 55.38% (- 3.60%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.88 days (+0.47). Currently, the autumn fertilizer for agriculture has started in some areas, the off - season reserves are few, the compound fertilizer plants in industrial demand have low enthusiasm for purchasing and buy on dips, and melamine is purchased for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 16, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1327 million tons (+37,700 tons), and the port sample inventory was 549,400 tons (- 71,500 tons). The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the环比 improvement of domestic demand [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently facing a situation of high supply and weak domestic demand, with the overall supply-demand imbalance still significant. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 74, and the premium/discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1760 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1686 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 8279 | -334 | | Shandong Spot | 1760 | 0 | Basis | 74 | -3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 137.1 | -4.0 | | Henan Spot | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1686 | 3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 88.8 | - | | FOB China | 3273 | - | UR05 | 1737 | 6 | UR Port Inventory | 48.3 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1757 | 7 | - | - | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

尿素：步入震荡格局，日内走势关注现货成交 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,686 | 1,683 | 3 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,691 | 1,679 | 1 2 | | | | 成交量 （手） | 129,472 | 166,237 | -36765 | | （01合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 277,334 | 284,978 | -7644 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 8,279 | 8,613 | -334 | | | | （万元） 成交额 | 437,832 | 558,324 | -120492 | | | | 山东地区基差 | -36 | -43 | 7 | | 基 | 差 | 丰 ...

Group 1 - Strategic emerging industries and future industries will be key directions for central enterprises to cultivate a second growth curve during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - Chengfei Integration has identified drone fuselage manufacturing as an important new development direction, included in the company's 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - Some central enterprises have set specific growth targets, with Zhenhua Technology aiming to increase the proportion of civil business to 30% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 2 - CNOOC Development is accelerating its layout in chemical new materials, expanding production capacity for DPC catalysts and functional membrane materials [3] - Digital transformation is a crucial path for central enterprises to cultivate new growth points, with China Merchants Highway planning to promote smart and green development in the toll road operation industry chain [3] - The focus on high-end resin and polyether polyol products by Shenyang Chemical aims to serve high-growth markets such as automotive seats and medical gloves [3] Group 3 - China National Materials International acknowledges challenges in integration and business transformation, aiming to enhance performance and structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - New energy storage has become a key focus for several energy central enterprises, with Zhonglv Electric prioritizing the development of new energy storage projects [4] - Hubei Energy plans to develop new businesses in inspection and testing, new energy storage technology, and hydrogen energy [4] Group 4 - Hong Sifang, a fertilizer production central enterprise under China Salt Group, will prioritize industry transformation and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - Jiangnan Chemical is focusing on the transformation of the civil explosives industry and aims to promote cross-regional and cross-ownership restructuring [5] - Zhongke Technology plans to extend its operations into the valve industry and maintenance services to achieve industrial breakthroughs [5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange criticized Guolian Co., Ltd. for inaccurate financial disclosures in multiple periodic reports, involving significant amounts, and for failing to respond to regulatory letters in a timely manner [1] - The company was found to have misused raised funds, violating several regulations including the General Provisions of Financial Reporting and the Management and Use of Raised Funds [1] - The disciplinary action included a public reprimand for the company's then Chairman Liu Quan, then General Manager Qian Xiaojun, and then Chief Financial Officer Tian Tao [1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Guolian Co., Ltd.'s revenue composition was as follows: Petrochemical accounted for 56.12%, Grain and Oil Trade 16.11%, Sanitary Products 13.36%, Fertilizer 7.1%, and Glass 5.6% [2] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Guolian Co., Ltd. was 23.7 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Si Er Te, is currently under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, which may lead to potential compensation claims from affected investors [3]. Group 1: Financing Activities - On September 15, Si Er Te had a financing buy-in of 7.175 million yuan, with a financing repayment of 3.619 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 3.556 million yuan. This marks a cumulative net buy of 22.022 million yuan over the past five days [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - On September 1, Si Er Te received a notice from the CSRC regarding an investigation into the company for suspected information disclosure violations, which could lead to legal consequences under relevant laws [3]. - Affected investors who purchased shares between April 20, 2022, and April 25, 2025, and held them until the latter date may be eligible for compensation claims [3]. Group 3: Accounting Policy Changes - On April 30, Si Er Te announced a change in accounting policies in accordance with the Ministry of Finance's new guidelines, which does not require board or shareholder approval [4]. - The company stated that the accounting policy change will not affect previously disclosed financial statements and will not have a significant impact on its financial status, operating results, or cash flows [5].