Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly rising and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a stabilizing force during market fluctuations, with a shift in investor preference from extreme technology and dividend styles to mid-range options [4] - It is recommended to explore opportunities in the long-dormant consumer sector and to wait for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Focus: Swine Industry - The report highlights a pessimistic outlook for the swine industry, suggesting that the current market conditions present significant investment value [5] - Recent policies and market dynamics are expected to drive capacity reduction in the swine industry, leading to long-term performance improvements [5] - The report notes that market expectations for swine prices in 2026 are extremely low, which may underestimate the inventory and capacity reduction situation [5] - Historical trends indicate that when prices for fat pigs and piglets are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reductions, supported by ongoing policy restrictions on leading producers [5] Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026 [6] - The report identifies the brain model as a significant challenge for mass production, with expectations for accelerated progress in the first half of 2026 [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend [6]

乐山巨星农牧（603477）股份有限公司在12月份接受投资者调研时表示，该公司高度重视生猪产业高质 量发展并积极响应国家生猪产能调控政策号召，通过先进技术研发推广、数智化升级改造等多个维度， 致力于提高养殖效率和经营质量，推动实现高质量发展。11月份，该公司的商品肥猪完全成本约为6.2 元/斤，随着种场优势的释放和育肥效率的提升，后续有望降至6元/斤。 牧原食品股份有限公司近期在接受投资者调研时介绍，该公司10月份的生猪养殖完全成本在11.3元/公斤 左右。该公司致力于通过管理和技术创新持续降本增效，使得在可能会出现的低猪价期，也能凭借较低 的现金成本获得现金流的正流入，以应对外部市场环境带来的挑战。 对于2026年的猪价走势，分析人士普遍持谨慎乐观的态度。卓创资讯生猪行业分析师邹莹吉向《证券日 报》记者表示，2026年生猪供应或仍较充裕，生猪需求或难对猪价形成明显支撑，预计2026年猪价走势 或前低后高。其中，上半年运行趋势总体偏弱，月均价预计在11.4元/公斤至11.8元/公斤之间运行，供应 节奏导致价格止跌反弹的拐点大概率会出现在二季度末。此外，下半年的反弹预期或驱动从业者有二次 育肥等提前布局行为，进 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The bond market shows a slight increase in long-term interest rates, but the overall weakness remains unchanged. The possibility of a significant decline in the bond market is increasing, and short positions can be re-established under risk control [4][17]. - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing signs of strength in previously underperforming sectors such as technology and entrepreneurship. The report anticipates a broad market rally as the year-end approaches, with technology expected to yield excess returns [5][20]. - The US stock market is experiencing light trading post-Christmas, with major indices showing volatility. The report notes a shift in momentum for previously weak stocks like Oracle and Nvidia, indicating a potential upward trend in risk assets [6][26]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the A-share market, sectors such as robotics and chemicals are gaining momentum, while traditional sectors like insurance and banking are expected to stabilize and continue their upward trend. The consumer sector is anticipated to become a new target for recovery as policy support deepens [5][20]. - The commodity market is showing an upward trend, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.65%. The report maintains that the upward momentum for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy sectors remains intact, although high volatility may affect short-term trading strategies [7][31]. - The foreign exchange market indicates a significant appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with the onshore RMB reported at 6.9912. This aligns with expectations of a controlled appreciation trend under central bank guidance [6][29]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Developments - Domestic policies include a new tax regulation on personal housing sales, where properties sold within two years will incur a 3% tax, while those sold after two years will be exempt. This policy is set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [9][37]. - The government has announced the early issuance of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate consumption [9][37]. - The automotive industry is set to benefit from a push for the large-scale application of intelligent robotics in manufacturing processes, which is expected to enhance productivity and innovation within the sector [9][38].

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent visit by Wens Foodstuff Group's Vice President and Technical Director Zhang Xiangbin to Muyuan Group was on large-scale breeding, disease prevention, cost control, and digital applications in the industry [1][3] - During the visit, both parties engaged in deep technical exchanges, including discussions on breeding stock and health management, feed nutrition, and pig farm design and environmental protection [3][5] - Muyuan Group is committed to building a new ecosystem of industry exchange and collaborative innovation, aiming to inject new momentum into the high-quality development of the pig industry [5] Group 2 - Muyuan Group shared its innovative technologies such as multi-story pig houses, air filtration management, and the cyclical model of breeding and farming, while Wens Foodstuff Group shared its experiences in refined management and collaborative development in the livestock industry [5] - The pig industry is transitioning from scale expansion to a new stage of high-quality development, with industry innovation and transformation entering a "deep water zone" [5] - The formation of a new ecosystem characterized by "open connectivity and collaborative innovation" among leading breeding enterprises and small-scale farmers is expected to open new growth opportunities for the pig industry [5]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 30 日 牧原股份 (002714) ——领先成本助穿越周期，双擎共振启价值新程 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 50.89 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 59.68/35.72 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.95 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 193,921 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,965.12/13,604.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.89 | | 资产负债率% | 55.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,463/3,811 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the long-term growth potential of China's pig farming sector [3][50]. Core Insights - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of pigs and pork, with a projected pig production of 705 million heads in 2025, accounting for 54.7% of global production [3][12]. - The report forecasts a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, driven by a reduction in the breeding sow population, which is currently at a historically high level [3][32]. - The profitability of pig farming is expected to gradually improve as pig prices rebound and feed costs remain low [3][47][48]. Summary by Sections 1. China's Position in the Global Pork Market - China leads the world in both pig and pork production, with 2025 projections indicating a pork production of 57 million tons, representing 48.9% of global output [3][12]. - The country has a low reliance on pork imports, with an expected import volume of 1.3 million tons in 2025, only 2.2% of its total consumption [3][27]. 2. Breeding Sow Capacity and Supply Outlook - The breeding sow population is undergoing a gradual reduction, with a current stock of 39.57 million heads, down 3.01% from the previous year [3][32]. - The report anticipates a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, which may lead to a recovery in pig prices [3][34]. 3. Industry Scale and Growth Potential - The scale of pig farming in China is increasing, with over 70% of production now coming from large-scale farms [3][50]. - The top 26 enterprises accounted for approximately 33% of total pig output in 2024, indicating a significant concentration in the industry [3][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights leading companies with cost and scale advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, as potential investment opportunities [3][50].

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 30 日 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 农林牧渔行业 | 图 | 27：SW 生猪养殖板块单季营收同比增速（%） 12 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 28：SW 生猪养殖板块单季归母净利润同比增速（%） 12 | | | 图 29：SW | 生猪养殖板块单季度毛利率净利率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 30：SW 生猪养殖板块单季度期间费用率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 31：我国生猪养殖年出栏户数占比（%） | 14 | | 图 | 32：我国生猪行业规模化程度（%） | 14 | 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly elevated and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Sector Strategy - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks are positioned as a stabilizing force in the market, with a shift in risk appetite leading funds from extreme technology and dividend styles to the mid-range, providing opportunities for mid-cap blue chips [4] - The performance of cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals) and manufacturing (communications, military) has been validated by the market, suggesting a focus on the long-dormant consumer sector and waiting for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is viewed as having significant value due to extremely pessimistic expectations, with recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [5] - The market's pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026 is seen as underestimating inventory and capacity reduction, with historical trends indicating a likely market-driven capacity reduction [5] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026, driven by the evolution of brain models [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from the future of mass production in humanoid robots [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the supply in China's pig market has been generally loose, leading to a downward trend in pig prices and pushing the pig - grain ratio into the warning zone. This has weakened the profitability and cash - generating ability of breeding enterprises. Although the debt scale has continued to decline, the financial leverage of breeding enterprises remains high, and they may face short - term debt repayment pressure under the pressure of product prices. In the short term, the pig supply surplus situation is difficult to reverse quickly, and pig prices may remain volatile at a low - profit level. In 2026, the pressure of oversupply is expected to gradually ease, and pig prices may recover but still oscillate at a low - profit level [3][6][39]. - Large - scale breeding is the core trend in the pig - breeding industry. In 2025, the cost and profit gap between large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farmers narrowed, but leading enterprises still increased their market share. Enterprises with stronger cost - control capabilities will have higher competitiveness and risk - resistance [6][23][39]. Summary According to the Directory Main Concerns - **Supply - side Factors** - High - level operation of breeding capacity and improved breeding efficiency have led to an overall loose supply in the pig market since 2025. The national inventory of breeding sows has remained at around 40 million, and the PSY index has increased, further amplifying the positive impact on pig slaughter volume. From January to September 2025, the national pig inventory increased year - on - year by about 2%, and as of the end of September, it reached 436.8 million [7][8]. - Secondary fattening was an important disturbing factor in the first half of 2025. In April, the number of pigs sold to the secondary fattening channel by monitored breeding enterprises reached 59,200 per week, accounting for 33.54% of the total. After May, policy restrictions and market factors led to the concentrated slaughter of second - fattened pigs, exacerbating the supply surplus. In the second half of the year, the impact of secondary fattening decreased [10][11]. - **Demand - side Factors** - Market consumption is relatively weak. The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises has been declining, and as of November 28, it dropped to 85.60%. The frozen - meat inventory may be released around the Spring Festival in 2026, and the demand increase during the peak season may not offset the supply increase [16]. - **Cost - side Factors** - From January to October 2025, the total output of industrial feed increased by 7.72% year - on - year to 279.133 million tons, and the sales of pig feed increased for 10 consecutive months. In the first half of the year, feed prices rose due to factors such as the tariff on US soybeans and the fluctuation of Brazilian soybean arrivals. In the second half of the year, feed prices declined with the new grain listing and increased soybean imports. Overall, the average feed price from January to November decreased by 4.47% year - on - year [18]. - **Pig Price Factors** - In 2025, pig prices generally declined, with the highest price of 16.54 yuan/kg in mid - January. The pig - grain ratio entered the warning zone in August. The government launched multiple rounds of central frozen - pork purchases. In the short term, pig prices may remain volatile at a low level, and in 2026, they may recover but still operate at a low - profit level [20]. Industry Development Trends - Large - scale breeding is the core trend. The proportion of large - scale pig farms (with an annual slaughter of over 500 pigs) increased from less than 40% in 2015 to over 70% in 2024. In 2025, the cost and profit gap between large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farmers narrowed, but leading enterprises still increased their market share. For example, the market share of the top three enterprises increased from 16.84% in 2024 to 19.73% in the first three quarters of 2025 [23][24]. Financial Situation of Breeding Enterprises - **Profitability** - In the first three quarters of 2025, 11 sample enterprises achieved a total operating income of 344.635 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.06%. Both the self - breeding and self - fattening model and the model of purchasing piglets for fattening were in a loss state. As of November, the loss per head was 147.99 yuan and 248.82 yuan respectively. Leading enterprises had better cost - control results, and the gap in the average period expense ratio between other enterprises and the top three enterprises widened to about 4 percentage points [29]. - **Capital Expenditure and Asset Status** - Since 2025, breeding enterprises have been cautious about capital expenditure. As of the end of September, the total fixed assets of sample enterprises decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter, and the total construction in progress decreased by 1.32% compared with the end of the previous year. The productive biological assets decreased by 9.19%, and the inventory decreased by 4.54% [34]. - **Capital Structure and Debt Situation** - By the end of September 2025, the average total debt of sample enterprises decreased by 10.55% year - on - year and 3.20% quarter - on - quarter. The average asset - liability ratio and total capitalization ratio decreased by 6.25 and 8.96 percentage points respectively. However, the short - term debt of leading enterprises was significantly higher than that of other sample enterprises, and they may face short - term debt repayment pressure [35]. - **Operating Cash Flow and Solvency** - As the pig price declined in the second quarter of 2025, the operating cash flow of most sample enterprises decreased year - on - year. The liquidity ratio of most sample enterprises improved, but the average liquidity ratio of the top three enterprises was lower than that of other sample enterprises. The ability of monetary funds to cover short - term debt weakened, but the ability of operating cash flow to cover total debt increased [37].