所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-13 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025-10-13 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 万斯称"特朗普愿意与中国进行理性谈判" 观点分享： 10 月 12 日晚间，美国副总统万斯在接受采访时表示，特朗普愿意与中国进行理性谈 判。"万斯说，总统"珍视他与中方建立的友谊"，但他说："我们拥有很多筹码。我的希 望——我也知道总统的希望——是我们不必动用这些筹码。""接下来的几周，我们会看到 很多迹象。"与之相对应的是，12 日，中国商务部表示，动辄以高额关税进行威胁，不是与 中方相处的正确之道。对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打。我们 认为，从上述情况及今晨美股期指、加密货币的走势等判断，市场预期"TACO"交易再次 上演的可能性较大。而从交易来说，一方面我们固然要依据各种蛛丝马迹通过逻辑分析做出 策略判断，另一方面，由于此类政治事件的高度不确定性，我们也有必要对小概率事件作出 心理预设和防控性策略。 | | | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 期指 | ★★★★ | 期指：风险暂歇，也无风雨也无晴。周一，美方再释缓和信 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Mineral Resources Group may have signed an agreement with BHP, the world's largest mining company, to implement RMB settlement for iron ore spot trading starting as early as Q4 of this year, indicating a strengthening of domestic pricing power for iron ore [1] Group 1: Iron Ore Market Dynamics - The production ramp-up of iron ore projects, represented by Ximangdu, is expected to lead to a loosening of supply and demand, potentially driving down the price center [1] - Domestic constraints on steel supply due to "anti-involution" policies may allow iron ore to benefit the downstream steel sector, leading to a more reasonable profit distribution within the black industry chain [1] Group 2: Steel ETF and Industry Characteristics - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which selects listed companies involved in both ordinary and special steel from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The index constituents are primarily steel manufacturing enterprises, exhibiting strong cyclical characteristics, with a focus on raw materials, highlighting the close relationship between the steel industry and market dynamics as well as economic cycles [1]

（原标题：规模惊人！美国防部拟斥资10亿美元囤积关键矿产以强化战略储备） 智通财经APP获悉，据报道，美国国防部正计划采购价值高达10亿美元的关键矿产，作为强化金属供应 安全、确保美国国防系统及先进技术所需原材料供应的最新举措。根据国防后勤局(Defense Logistics Agency，简称DLA)最近公布的文件，这一行动标志着美国战略物资储备数年来最大规模的扩张之一。 近年来，多种矿产价格大幅上涨。用于半导体和光学的锗价格飙升;三氧化二锑的价格同比几乎翻倍。 特朗普的《一项伟大而美丽的法案》(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)为关键矿产项目拨款75亿美元，其中包 括20亿美元用于在2026年或2027年初前强化国防储备。此外，该法案还划拨50亿美元用于支持美国国防 部在矿产供应链的投资，以及5亿美元用于设立联邦信贷计划以刺激私营部门的采矿与精炼活动。一位 前官员表示，由于获得新资金，美国国防部中负责矿产安全的多个部门如今"资金充裕"。 杰富瑞分析师表示，DLA从力拓采购的约6吨钪价格超出预期，而全球钪氧化物年消费量仅为30至40 吨。类似地，其与美国锑业公司的潜在交易将建立起足以在 ...

公募密集布局权益市场 新发基金聚焦科创和港股 银行理财大举配置科创债ETF 随着第二批14只科创债ETF集体上市，市场规模进一步扩大，理财资金正成为这一创新债券品类的主力 配置力量。最新数据显示，多家银行系理财机构已大举入场，通过科创债券ETF实现收益与流动性的平 衡。业内人士表示，流动性管理需求、分散风险诉求及政策导向共同驱动理财公司加码布局，推动科创 债ETF从"创新起步"迈向"规模扩容"。与此同时，机构也提醒，科创债ETF虽具配置价值，但仍需警惕 成分券波动与信用风险。（上证报） 前三季度业绩预告启幕 超八成公司预喜 A股前三季度业绩预告陆续披露。截至10月12日19时，A股共有51家上市公司对外披露前三季度业绩预 告，42家预喜，预喜比例达到82.35%。部分上市公司业绩预告发布后，股价出现较为明显的上涨。除 了业绩预告外，A股三季报也陆续披露，金岭矿业、道氏技术两家公司率先披露三季报，引发市场关 注。（智通财经） 资讯数据显示，截至10月12日，已有269款万能险产品披露了9月份结算利率，其中最高为3.50%，最低 为0.36%。结算利率的平均值为2.68%，同比下降约18个基点，中位数为2.60% ...

资讯编辑：陈群 021-26096771 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 10月12日，美媒称，澳大利亚正在考虑为关键矿物设定最低价格，并投资新的稀土项目，作为其与美国 潜在资源协议的一部分。据澳大利亚《时代报》，澳大利亚政府已开始与矿商进行商谈，讨论共同出资 建立一个价值12亿澳元(约合7.77亿美元)的战略矿产储备。该报援引最近几周流传的一份泄露的部门简 报称，正在审议的提案包括可能的价格下限、政府支持的贷款、承购担保以及直接投资澳大利亚项目， 以支持本地生产商。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Department of Defense is seeking to procure critical minerals worth up to $1 billion, marking an acceleration in the Trump administration's efforts to strengthen the critical mineral supply chain [1][3] - The procurement plan includes metals that were previously not on the reserve list, indicating a significant expansion of the strategic reserve [2][3] - The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) is leading this initiative, which is part of a global stockpiling effort, causing notable fluctuations in related company stock prices [3][5] Procurement Details - The DLA plans to purchase up to $500 million worth of cobalt, $245 million worth of antimony, $100 million worth of tantalum, and approximately $45 million worth of scandium [3] - DLA is also gathering information on rare earth elements, tungsten, bismuth, and indium to further expand its reserves [4] - The DLA currently holds approximately $1.3 billion in reserve assets, which can only be utilized under specific conditions such as a declared state of war [4] Market Reactions - Market participants are shocked by the scale of DLA's planned purchases, as the quantities exceed U.S. annual production and import levels for many metals [2][6] - The Trump administration's "Big and Beautiful" plan includes $7.5 billion for critical minerals, with $2 billion allocated for strengthening national defense strategic reserves [6] Legislative Context - An executive order signed by President Trump aims to enhance domestic production capabilities for critical minerals and rare earths, allowing the use of the Defense Production Act for funding and investment support [7] - This order requires federal agencies to identify mines that can be quickly approved and federal lands suitable for mineral processing [7] Stock Performance - Following these developments, stock prices for rare earth and critical mineral companies have surged, with USA Rare Earth up over 180%, MP Materials soaring over 400%, and Energy Fuels rising nearly 300% this year [7]

无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 有色金属前景与全球能源转型、国家战略和产业升级紧密相连。目前全球正处于以人工智能为引领的新 一轮产业革命时期，新能源、人形机器人等新兴产业快速发展，对铜、铝、锂、稀土等诸多有色金属需 求旺盛，部分金属目前仍面临供需不平衡的问题。 以铜为例，当前铜供需偏紧问题延续，铜价有望持续上涨。供给端，9月自由港全球第二大铜矿发生 Grasberg矿难，在中期维度加剧供给端短缺程度；需求端，全球电网升级、数据中心扩张、电动车普及 等需求均或推动铜消费快速增长。此外，冶炼端看，尽管铜冶炼产能过剩现状仍未改变，但据市场测 算，全球铜冶炼产能增速或低于矿端供给增速，冶炼产能过剩程度有望走低。 今年9月， ...

Q&A 近期铜价回调的原因是什么？ 近期铜价回调超出预期，主要原因是交易资金的被动降仓。由于前期投机性做 多资金仓位较快较猛，导致多单平掉后夜盘压力明显回落。此外，宏观因素和 关税扰动也对市场情绪产生影响。当前供需基本面和宏观趋势与 4 月初相比已 发生变化，当时供给过剩、冶炼过剩以及美国关税扰动压制了价格，而现在供 需平衡表扭转后，预计回调深度应低于今年上半年 4 月份的预期。 铜价走"V"确定性高，把握打捞时机 20251012 明年（2026 年）二季度开始复产预期受印尼雨季和旱季影响较大。印尼雨季 排水及清污难度较高，公司维持性资本开支不足，加之矿山老化，使得复产难 度增加。因此，公司预计明年减产 35%的预期偏谨慎，更可能在 20%左右。 摘要 当前铜市场情绪强烈，短期扰动或提供买入机会，长期来看，连续降息 后的市场交易化逻辑尚未结束，预计 2026 年供需缺口在 20 万吨至 23 万吨左右。 印尼雨季和旱季对铜矿复产影响大，排水和清污难度高，维持性资本开 支不足及矿山老化增加复产难度，预计明年减产幅度可能在 20%左右， 而非此前预期的 35%。 全球制造业重构及矿产清单管控加剧，对全球物质流转 ...

在为期八个月的钴出口禁令将于下周到期之际，刚果民主共和国政府公布了今年剩余时间的钴出口配 额。 刚果占到全球钴产量的四分之三左右，这种金属用于电动汽车电池、航空航天和国防工业等。 该监管机构上个月表示，今年剩余时间内，矿商将获准出口略高于18,000吨钴，2026年和2027年每年出 口量最多为96,600吨。未来两年每年许可的出口量还不到该国去年产量的一半。 其声明概述了各家公司在今年剩余时间内可以出口多少钴，并表示12月的配额将自动续期，作为明年的 月度配额。 洛阳钼业获得了2025年剩余时间内略高于三分之一的配额，预计其2026年将能够出口31200吨，这仅占 其刚果矿山去年总产量的27%。去年洛阳钼业的钴产量占全球总产量的40%以上。 尽管受到出口限制，该公司上半年的产量实际上略有增长。各家矿商一直在囤积钴，同时继续出口铜 ——这两种金属在刚果同时开采。 机构研究认为，未来两年钴均有缺口：24年全球钴供给29万吨(刚果金22万吨+印尼2.8万吨)，需求18.5 万吨，过剩10.5万吨；26年全球供给18万吨(刚果金9.66万吨+印尼4万吨)，需求20万吨，短缺2万吨。 1、所有冶炼厂没有拿到配额，华友 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities, influenced by factors such as trade frictions, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Trade frictions between the US and China, especially Trump's tariff statements, have a significant impact on market risk preferences, asset prices, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Geopolitical events like the situation in the Middle East also affect relevant markets. Each sector has its own unique supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and strict export controls on software, which makes the gold price rise and increases market uncertainty. The short - term gold price is expected to be strong, but there are also factors such as profit - taking and liquidity shocks [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's softened stance on tariffs reduces the risk of the US - China trade war, and the market risk preference rebounds. The short - term US dollar index is expected to fluctuate [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The intensification of tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations lead to a decline in market risk preference. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations. If the two sides' attitudes ease, it may be a good buying opportunity [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions puts pressure on the short - term risk preference of A - shares. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait for the progress of Sino - US relations [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 4090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the new regulations on fund fees are not considered, the treasury bond futures are expected to gradually strengthen. After the implementation of the new regulations, there may be opportunities to buy at low prices [23][24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Coastal power groups release procurement demand for imported steam coal in November, but the cost of traders is high. The short - term price rebound cannot change the seasonal weakness of coal prices from October to November [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP accepts RMB settlement for iron ore trade. Although there is short - term support, the pressure on the demand side should be noted due to the weakening terminal demand [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased. Due to the new tariff statement by Trump, the oil market is expected to open lower this week. After the market stabilizes, long positions can be considered [29][30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production and sales data show that the destocking of old sugar slows down. The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Affected by weather and Sino - US trade frictions, the picking progress of Xinjiang cotton slows down, and the upper space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition of new cotton and Sino - US relations [39][40]. 3.2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of steel products increases during the holiday, and the actual pressure on finished products exists. The steel price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the near future. It is recommended to operate lightly and short on rebounds [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The proportion of drought - affected areas in US soybean production areas increases, and the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is good. The Sino - US trade war escalates, and the futures price is expected to show a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the situation of Brazilian new crops [45][46][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of new - season corn is weak. The corn market will enter the stage of production - area pricing. It is recommended to hold short positions and not enter long positions prematurely [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of corn starch enterprises increases. The spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink in the long - term, and the futures price difference may fluctuate at a low level [52]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujube is in the transition period between old and new production seasons. The market will focus on the speculation of the opening price, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price game and acquisition progress in the production area [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The resources of some copper mines increase. The short - term copper price is under pressure, but the medium - term expectation is good. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [56][58][59]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ford delays purchasing lithium metal. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the reverse spread [60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The discount of LME lead increases, and the domestic social inventory of lead decreases. The short - term price of Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to delivery risks [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreases, and the 0 - 3 spread strengthens. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [64][65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology obtains capital injection. The spot price of polysilicon may be stable. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and pay attention to the reverse spread [66][70]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project in Angola is put into operation. The fundamental contradiction of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is recommended to go long on dips with caution [71][72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia adjusts the RKAB approval system. The global nickel inventory increases, but the nickel price has support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low prices at the beginning of the week [73][75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price rises slightly. The investment fund's long position increases. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly [77][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreases. The short - term oil price may be greatly affected by macro factors [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price falls. The short - term PX price is expected to adjust weakly [82][84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [85][87]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price moves down. The short - term PTA price is expected to adjust weakly [88][90]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly [91][92]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder price is sorted out narrowly. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory reduces production. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and the processing fee is under pressure [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply disturbances [96][98]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [99][100]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China will charge additional fees for US ships. The container freight rate index fluctuates. It is recommended to trade with a volatile mindset and pay attention to long and short opportunities [101][104].