Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to surge, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal risks, and strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 CNY/kg, with a peak of 20,950 CNY/kg, marking a 14.07% increase [1] - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD/oz, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD/oz, with an increase of over 5% [1] - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD/oz, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% rise, both setting new historical highs [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3] - U.S. fiscal risks are increasing due to the Trump administration's economic policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and diminishing the attractiveness of dollar assets [3][4] - Central banks globally are showing a strong willingness to increase gold reserves due to economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - In 2025, gold and silver saw substantial inflows, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net purchased, and the largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, growing from under 30 billion CNY to over 90 billion CNY [5][6] - As of December 2025, China's central bank held 7.415 million ounces of gold, continuing a 14-month streak of increasing gold reserves [6] - In the first seven trading days of 2026, gold ETFs saw net purchases exceeding 400 million shares, with Huaan Gold ETF approaching 100 billion CNY [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold and gold stocks will have significant potential in 2026, driven by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [7] - The investment logic surrounding gold has shifted from short-term economic indicators to a focus on long-term structural risk hedging [7] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic long-term hedge, enhancing portfolio resilience amid policy uncertainties and fiscal vulnerabilities [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector continues its strong performance from the previous year, with both gold and silver prices reaching historical highs in early January 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - On January 12, 2025, the London gold spot price surpassed $4600 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $4611.210 per ounce, marking a historical high. The year-to-date increase in international gold prices has exceeded 6% [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 gold spot opened at 1003.50 yuan per gram on the same day, with a peak of 1029.00 yuan per gram, also a historical high [1]. Group 2: Silver Price Performance - The London silver spot price also showed strong performance, breaking through the $84 and $85 per ounce thresholds on January 12, 2025, with a peak of $85.546 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Short-term gold price movements are driven by three main factors: strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties acting as short-term catalysts, and ongoing purchases of gold by central banks [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks net purchased 45 tons of gold in November 2025, maintaining a high level of gold buying despite a slight decrease from October [2]. - From early 2025 to November 2025, global central banks reported a cumulative net purchase of 297 tons of gold, indicating strong demand, although lower than record levels from previous years [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The ongoing willingness of global central banks to allocate gold remains a core factor influencing gold prices. Additionally, rising U.S. debt risks and questions about fiscal sustainability are decreasing the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, prompting a shift towards gold and other safe-haven assets [2]. - The expectation of continued Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, persistent gold purchases by central banks, and ongoing geopolitical risks are likely to sustain long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 5: Market Volatility - Despite reaching new highs, precious metal prices have shown increased volatility. The market may seek a new widely accepted trading range as prices break historical peaks, looking for the next key psychological and technical resistance levels [3].

Group 1 - The global market risk appetite continues to rise, benefiting equity assets. Tactical recommendations include overweighting A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while underweighting US Treasuries and oil [1][23]. - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight in A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to further expansion of the broad deficit and more proactive economic policies. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cut in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026 [2][10][11]. - The "Goldilocks" scenario is emerging, which is favorable for US stock performance. The resilience of the US economy, decreasing inflationary pressures, and ongoing investor focus on AI trends are expected to support a moderate increase in market risk appetite and corporate earnings expectations [2][10][11]. Group 2 - Gold is recommended for overweighting due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases. Despite increased volatility from speculative trading, gold prices are expected to maintain strong resilience in the context of fluctuating global risk assets [3][12][25]. - Short-term oil market dynamics may intensify, suggesting an underweight in oil. Investor expectations regarding oil supply and demand are relatively consistent, and OPEC+ production adjustments are expected to be moderate. Geopolitical events in South America may increase the US's influence on global oil prices, with policies favoring lower oil prices anticipated [3][12][25]. Group 3 - Recent US labor market data shows a mild cooling, with the unemployment rate at 4.4%, below expectations. Non-farm payrolls for December were 50,000, also below expectations, while initial jobless claims were 208,000, slightly better than expected [7][30]. - The resilience of the US economy is indicated by the ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 54.4, above expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was slightly below expectations at 47.9. The Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was 54.0, also above expectations [7][30].

//// 2026年初，游戏板块继续演绎2025年以来"困境反转"的整体逻辑。在经历了长时间的估值消化与行业调 整后，游戏行业正站在新一轮产业周期的起点。深入分析本轮行情的深层逻辑，主要得益于"政策回暖 +业绩兑现+AI落地"的三重共振。 从供给端来看，行业政策环境显著改善，版号发放常态化且数量稳步增长。根据最新数据，2025年全年 国产网络游戏版号获批数量累计达到1771款，较2024年同比增长约25%。版号的稳定供给不仅为游戏公 司提供了丰富的产品储备，更极大地提振了市场对于行业确定性的信心。优质新游的密集上线，直接带 动了整个板块的流水大盘回升。 基本面上，游戏公司的盈利能力正在加速修复。得益于降本增效策略的持续推进以及高毛利新产品的贡 献，行业利润增速表现亮眼。数据显示，申万游戏指数成分股在2025年前三季度的归母净利润增速达到 约49%，部分龙头公司甚至实现了翻倍增长。这种实打实的业绩兑现，为板块估值的重塑提供了坚实支 撑，使其不再仅仅停留在"炒概念"的阶段。 A股市场今日放量上行，两市共计成交3.64万亿元刷新历史新高。上证指数上涨1.09%，报收4165.29 点，深证成指上涨1.75%，报收1 ...

这里是帮主郑重为你整理的中长线贵金属龙头标的清单，全部用大白话讲透核心逻辑、布局区间和实操 策略，方便你直接照着做（数据截至2026.1.12，仅作参考，不构成投资建议） 黄金组（压舱石，适合分批建仓，控制总仓位） 山东黄金（600547） 核心逻辑：国内黄金开采绝对龙头，矿产金产量连续多年居首，矿山储备和产能都很稳。美联储降息预 期+央行持续购金，金价中长期有支撑，公司业绩会跟着金价稳步兑现。前几天和矿业圈老伙计聊，他 们都觉得这类龙头的抗波动能力最强。 布局区间：当前股价45元左右，回调至40-42元区间分批建仓，首次仓位控制在总资金的3%-5%，不追 高；若跌破38元，结合金价趋势再评估加仓。 实操提示：适合作为资产组合里的"底仓"，拿住不放，别频繁交易。 盛达资源（000603） 核心逻辑：A股里纯正的白银龙头，核心资产是7座高品位银矿，白银业务占比高。白银兼具金融避险 和工业属性，光伏银浆、新能源汽车等需求持续增长，双轮驱动下，弹性比黄金大。 布局区间：当前股价（参考板块估值），回调至20%左右（比如从高点回落）分批建仓，首次仓位不超 过总资金的2%；白银波动大，一定要设好止损。 实操提示：适合在金 ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,529.10 per troy ounce on Monday, up 0.6% from Friday’s closing price of $4,500.90. The price of gold rose above $4,600, a record high, after the open. Gold surged to a new high after Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced the Justice Department had subpoenaed the central bank and threatened criminal charges. The move stems from Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on renovations to the Fed's office building. U.S. President Trump denied involvement in the inv ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,610 per troy ounce on Tuesday, down 0.1% from Monday’s closing price of $4,614.70. The price of gold reached an all-time high of $4,620 yesterday. The Trump administration’s investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell may continue to be a primary influence on the price of gold in 2026. The value of the U.S. dollar and interest rates will also be affected. Powell said the investigation is a continuation of President Trump’s attempts to manipulate interest rates, which conc ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,621.60 per troy ounce on Friday, nearly even with Thursday’s closing price of $4,623.70. The price of gold declined slightly in early trading. Despite the pullback, the gold price remains near its record high of $4,635, recorded on Wednesday. Gold’s price softened after the release of an improved weekly jobless claims report. In the week of Jan. 10, initial unemployment claims totaled 198,000, down 9,000 from the prior week. The median forecast was 215,000. The Departmen ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices are experiencing significant increases, with gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and silver reaching $84 per ounce, both marking historical highs. The rise is attributed to geopolitical tensions and poor non-farm payroll data, which have heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1]. Group 1: Gold Market - COMEX gold prices have reached a record high of over $4600 per ounce, marking an increase of $280 since the beginning of the year [1]. - The rise in gold prices is driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating geopolitical risks [1]. Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices have surged nearly 5% today, reaching a historical high of $84 per ounce [1]. - The performance of silver reflects similar trends in the gold market, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market expectations regarding interest rates [1]. Group 3: Stock Market Impact - The A-share precious metals sector opened strongly, with Hunan Silver rising over 5% and Zhaojin Gold increasing by more than 3% [1]. - Other stocks in the precious metals sector, such as Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Gold, also experienced gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards precious metals [1].

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by a combination of reasonable valuations, structural differentiation, and supply scarcity, indicating long-term investment value despite short-term market emotions [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold's recent price increase is attributed to its role as a pricing tool for global monetary stability rather than traditional notions of "safe haven" or "interest rate expectations" [3]. - The ongoing expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit is weakening dollar credibility, which supports gold's upward trend [3]. - Institutional investors, particularly through ETFs, have become the primary buyers of gold since 2025, indicating its integration into diversified asset allocation frameworks [3]. Group 2: Copper as a Strategic Resource - Copper is transitioning from a traditional cyclical commodity to a strategic resource with growth attributes, impacting the valuation and investment duration of related companies [4]. - The depletion of high-quality copper mines and rising extraction costs are extending the supply release timeline, suggesting that high copper prices may persist longer [4]. - The market is increasingly valuing companies based on sustained profitability rather than short-term performance, leading to a revaluation of copper firms [4]. Group 3: Sector Health and Valuation - The non-ferrous metal sector remains in a healthy valuation state, with current PE ratios around 10-12, which is lower than historical averages compared to other high-valuation sectors [5]. - A PE ratio of 20-30 would signal potential overheating in the sector, as it would imply a lengthy payback period for investments [5]. - The market is expected to shift towards a more selective approach in 2026, focusing on companies with favorable supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for the non-ferrous metal sector in 2026 is summarized by three keywords: valuation, structure, and scarcity, emphasizing the importance of maintaining focus on quality amid market volatility [6].