Market Overview - Global markets strengthened with all major U.S. indices rising, led by small-cap stocks. Volatility eased and Treasury yields slightly decreased, indicating a more stable tone [3] - Commodity performance was mixed, with gold rising and oil showing slight weakness. International markets displayed uneven performance, with Germany outperforming the UK, France, and the Eurozone, while Japan saw moderate gains [3] Company-Specific Insights - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Stock price decreased by 1.39% to $228.56 as investors locked in gains amid a cooling tech sector. E-commerce momentum slowed, and increased competition in cloud services contributed to the pullback, although the long-term fundamentals for AWS and logistics remain supportive [4] - **GameStop (GME)**: Stock price fell by 5.8% to $22.12 due to weak quarterly performance and ongoing softness in core gaming demand. The company's revenue missed expectations, and declines in hardware and software sales intensified market sentiment, compounded by uncertainty surrounding its transformation strategy [4] - **Oracle (ORCL)**: Stock price increased by 1.48% to $223.01, despite a slight revenue miss and concerns over significant spending on AI cloud infrastructure. The stock plummeted 10% in after-hours trading due to revenue and profit forecasts falling short of analyst expectations, alongside an announcement of an additional $15 billion investment in AI infrastructure, raising concerns about future capital expenditures [4] Index Performance - S&P 500 rose by 0.6749% to $6,886.68 - Dow Jones increased by 1.0460% to $48,057.75 - Nasdaq 100 index gained 0.4198% to $25,776.437 - Russell 2000 climbed 1.5100% to $2,559.61 - VIX decreased by 6.8517% to 15.77, indicating reduced volatility [5] Economic Indicators - U.S. futures showed mixed performance after a strong start, with technology stocks exerting pressure on market sentiment. The overall tone remains selective as investors balance mixed earnings signals with easing volatility [6] - The VIX index reflects a more stable market environment, positioned between 16-17, indicating reduced volatility compared to recent peaks [7] - The dollar index weakened slightly as the market reassessed interest rate expectations and macroeconomic policies [7] - Upcoming key U.S. economic data (employment, inflation) is expected to significantly influence bond volatility and equity momentum [8]

大型科技公司正纷纷加大对印度的投资力度，计划投入数十亿美元，它们被印度丰富的数据中心建设资 源、庞大的人才储备与数字用户群体，以及广阔的市场机遇深深吸引。不到24小时，微软(MSFT.US)和 亚马逊(AMZN.US)便相继承诺，将向印度的云服务和人工智能基础设施领域投入超过500亿美元;周一， 英特尔(INTC.US)又宣布，计划在当地开展芯片生产业务，以期抓住个人电脑需求增长以及人工智能迅 速普及所带来的发展契机。 Counterpoint Research研究总监塔伦·帕塔克指出："这般规模的资本投入，将助力微软在配备大量GPU的 数据中心领域抢占先发之机，同时促使Azure平台脱颖而出，成为印度人工智能工作负载的不二之选， 还能进一步强化其与政府推动人工智能公共基础设施建设之间的协同效应。" 亚马逊周三宣布，计划在印度追加逾 350 亿美元投资，加上已投入的 400 亿美元，其在印度的总投资将 超过 750 亿美元。 在过去的数月里，OpenAI、谷歌(GOOGL.US)以及Perplexity等人工智能与科技领域的巨头们，纷纷向 印度数以百万计的用户免费提供自家研发的工具;不仅如此，谷歌还进一步敲定 ...

甲骨文(ORCL.US)的常态化超预期增长业绩，已经不足以缓解与公司债务堆积以及AI泡沫即将破裂相关的市场浓 厚担忧情绪，一份堪比英伟达2023-2024年的那种动辄100%+的"炸裂式跃升业绩"，以及在业绩展望中公布更多除 OpenAI外的新云计算订单，才有可能全面缓和市场对于该公司基本面以及全球与AI算力基础设施密切相关联的科 技股的"AI泡沫负面情绪"。 即将于美东时间周三收盘后公布业绩的甲骨文，可谓是近期这一轮AI泡沫论调席卷全球股市导致股票市场陷入调 整的罪魁祸首。现在，甲骨文公司的业绩前景与未来展望，已经深度"捆绑"于ChatGPT开发者OpenAI长期、高额 且远远未兑现的大型AI数据中心云计算基础设施订单以及"星际之门"AI基建项目相关的云计算IaaS投资回报。 为了满足这些遥远的未来式的承诺，毛利率已然陷入困境的甲骨文正通过大规模举债与强劲资本支出(capex)助力 OpenAI扩建或新建大型AI数据中心;然而其自由现金流正转为负数，信用违约掉期 (CDS) 价格飙至多年高点，甲骨 文这种深度绑定OpenAI的无比强劲云计算基础设施订单背后的愈发高企债务负担与偿债风险不容忽视。 估值高达50 ...

本文首发于2025年03月 今天，我们重发一篇过往比较受欢迎的文章《》，希望对你有所启发。 观点 / 刘润 主笔 / 景九 责编 / 黄静 不过，去年第四季度，麦肯锡发布了一份报告: 《The next big arenas of competition》(下一个重大竞争：改变商业格局的行业领域)。 这份报告用200多页的篇幅，详细分析了未来最有可能改变全球商业格局的18个赛道，并预测2040年，这18个赛道将实现29万 —48万亿美元的收入，贡献18-34%的全球GDP增长。 那么，这些风口行业，都是什么？以及，为什么是他们？ 以下是这篇次条重发文章正文。 每年，我都会听到类似的声音。 哪里还有机会？时代变化太快，未来看不清，下一步，我到底该去哪？学些什么知识？ 是啊，回头看看过去20年，有太多的"风口"从我们面前溜走。2003年的软件，2010年的电商，2015年的移动互联网...似乎，每 个风口，都催生出了一批千亿市值的巨头，也带动了无数从业者财富自由。 未来的10年、20年，还会有这样的机会吗？ 坦白说，这个问题不太好回答。毕竟，未来这个东西，谁都不敢说自己能完全看清。 今天，我们一起来看看。 18个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 "Shangzheng Eagle·Gold Quality" award ceremony recognized outstanding companies and management in the context of high-quality development, with Yeng Kangming, Chairman of Co-creation Data, receiving the "Outstanding Entrepreneur" award [1][5]. Company Overview - Co-creation Data focuses on "collaborative innovation" and aligns with global technological trends, responding to national high-tech industry strategies through optimized resource allocation and scale effects [5]. - The company is evolving into a global leader in smart IoT terminal manufacturing, comprehensive cloud service provision, smart storage device manufacturing, and server remanufacturing [5]. - Co-creation Data aims to deepen its engagement in intelligent computing, lead innovations in smart terminals and robotics, and build a global cloud service platform for sustainable development and value co-creation [5]. Industry Recognition - The "Shangzheng Eagle·Gold Quality" award is one of the most authoritative and influential awards in the domestic listed company sector, aimed at recognizing market entities that actively contribute to high-quality development [5]. - The award seeks to stimulate market vitality and support the stability and long-term development of China's capital market, serving as a "ballast stone" for deepening reforms [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that institutions are optimistic about an early "spring rally" in the market, with growth and cyclical sectors being high-probability investment styles [1] - Huaxi Securities notes that the recent decrease in A-share trading volume and low implied volatility in options indicate that the market is awaiting new guiding themes, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference potentially serving as a key policy window for the year-end rally [1] - Huatai Securities highlights that improved liquidity conditions, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and enhanced domestic fundamental pricing, could support the market, with a narrowing outflow of foreign capital and a recovery in ETF issuance and subscriptions [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng Securities reports that major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Alibaba have shown over 20% growth in cloud revenue in their Q3 earnings, indicating a positive outlook for AI-related sectors, which still have a safety margin in market performance [2] - Huaxia Fund's quantitative investment department sees opportunities for left-side positioning in Hong Kong tech stocks, noting that the Hang Seng Tech Index typically performs well in the first quarter [2] - The valuation of the Hong Kong TMT sector is significantly lower compared to A-shares, with a current PE ratio of 26.2, which is at the 40th percentile of the past decade, suggesting potential for long-term value re-evaluation [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF, both of which are heavily weighted in software services, professional retail, information technology equipment, and automotive sectors, accounting for about 70% of their compositions [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF has a higher concentration in biotechnology compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF, which has more allocation in semiconductors, media, and entertainment [3] - The individual stock weight limit for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF is 15%, with the top ten constituents making up 80%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF has a limit of 8% and the top ten stocks account for 70% [3]

市场言论和投资者焦点往往会随着时间转变。在当前美国政策多变和科技创新加速的环境下，这种现象尤为明显。 年初至今，关税不明朗因素、通胀压力和美国债务攀升曾是市场的主要忧虑，但经济表现强韧和人工智能推动的强劲盈利克服了这些挑战，支持风险资产在 年初至今表现出色，多项股票指数创下历史新高。 展望未来，我们认为风险资产或仍有进一步上行的空间，但个中原因已有所不同。最大的变化在于市场观望美国降息的日子即将结束：美联储对通胀压力可 能温和且逐步的降温更有信心，决策者的焦点正转向经济增长温和放缓。在此背景下，债券市场有望受惠于降息，我们最近已再次上调投资级别债券的观点 至偏高，对冲基金则下调至中性观点。股债相关度下降，令债券的分散风险效益有所提升。此外，随着美元现金利率下降，原本倾向持有现金资产的投资者 或会考虑布局债市。 来源：汇丰 =丰私人银行 目录 04 欢迎辞 05 投资组合策略 10 五大投资趋势和精选主题 20 股票 つつ 24 外汇和大宗商品 26 对冲基金 28 房地产行业 30 私募市场 32 撰稿人 亚洲应对世界新秩序 10 科技颠覆 12 气候行动 14 社会演进 16 把握盈利和降息顺风时机 18 ...

中信证券：应对常态 超预期的内需变化出现前，震荡和结构性机会的轮动是常态，资源/传统制造业在全球定价权的重估仍然是潜 力的被低估的方向。去年"9·24行情"以来，两轮市场水位的整体抬升都伴随着融资规模的系统性抬升，合计净 增了1.11万亿元，远超去年10月以来公募和私募主观多头产品新发总规模。在这两波行情当中，主要宽基和景 气行业都完成了绝大部分涨幅。如果剔除两轮融资的大幅上升阶段，其他时间市场基本是横盘震荡，在震荡期 还能实现有效上涨的板块主要是量化驱动的微盘、保险驱动的银行、涨价推动的有色以及管线出海推动的创新 药。 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一定挑 战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压力可能会带 来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续资源/传统制造业 定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 华泰证券：春季躁动提前的能见度上升 上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面上，美联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升共振下资金面环境有所 改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the AI infrastructure sector, particularly highlighting companies like Marvell and Broadcom as having significant growth potential in the upcoming fiscal years [12][19]. Core Insights - The AI application market is experiencing varied activity levels, with Gemini showing an increase despite overall declines due to seasonal factors [10][7]. - Marvell's third-quarter revenue grew by 37%, with data center revenue up 38%, and the company expects over 25% growth in data center revenue for FY27 [12][18]. - Broadcom is anticipated to exceed expectations in its upcoming FY25Q4 earnings report, driven by strong demand for ASICs and AI chips [19][20]. - AWS's introduction of Trainium4 aims to enhance system-level performance and interconnectivity, positioning it as a competitive player in the AI chip market [24][25]. - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 12% year-over-year increase in sales, with Apple leading the market share [26][34]. Summary by Sections AI Application Market - Gemini's activity increased while most other applications saw declines due to overseas holidays [10][7]. - New models and technologies from companies like AWS and Tencent are enhancing capabilities in AI applications [11]. Marvell's Performance - Marvell reported a 37% increase in revenue and a 38% increase in data center revenue, with a positive outlook for the fourth quarter [12][18]. - The company is focusing on AI data center interconnects and custom ASICs, with a clear growth path for FY27-28 [17][18]. Broadcom's Expectations - Broadcom is expected to report "better than expected" results for FY25Q4, with strong demand for AI chips and data center interconnects [19][20]. - The market is adjusting its expectations positively ahead of the earnings report [20]. AWS's Trainium4 - AWS's Trainium4 is set to significantly improve performance and interconnectivity, leveraging NVLink Fusion technology [24][25]. - This shift indicates a strategic move towards a more interconnected and efficient computing environment [25]. Smartphone Market Dynamics - In October 2025, China's smartphone sales reached approximately 29 million units, marking a 12% increase year-over-year [26][34]. - Apple maintained a strong market presence, with its latest models leading in sales [26][33]. PC Market Trends - The domestic PC market saw a decline in sales, with desktop and laptop sales down by approximately 8% and 16% respectively [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon with a target price of $351.87 [7][5]. Core Insights - Amazon's recent re:Invent conference showcased significant updates, including the launch of the Trainium3 chip and enhancements to its Agent development ecosystem, which are expected to accelerate demand for AI agents by 2026 [1][2]. - The performance of the Trainium3 chip has improved significantly, with a 4.4x increase in computing power and a 4x increase in efficiency compared to its predecessor [2]. - The introduction of the Nova2 series models emphasizes high cost-effectiveness, catering to various applications including multimodal inference and image generation [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for Amazon from 2025 to 2027 indicate adjusted net profits of $75.4 billion, $87 billion, and $110.5 billion respectively [5][13]. - The report utilizes a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, maintaining a target price of $351.87, which corresponds to a 42.9x PE ratio for 2026 [5][15]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $718 billion and $806 billion respectively, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 12.5% [11][23]. Product and Service Developments - The Agent development ecosystem has seen over 2 million downloads of the AgentCore platform within five months, with new features enhancing its capabilities [3]. - The Strands Agents SDK has been updated to support TypeScript and edge devices, broadening the scope for developers [3]. - The Nova2 series models include various products tailored for specific tasks, reinforcing Amazon's commitment to high-performance AI solutions [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Amazon has deployed over 1 million Trainium chips, with a significant portion of inference tasks on Bedrock being handled by these chips, indicating a strong integration of self-developed hardware within its cloud services [2]. - The report highlights Amazon's strategy to align its chip architecture with NVIDIA's ecosystem, which is expected to enhance performance and reduce costs [2].