Group 1 - The investment strategy is focused on three main directions: 1) Opportunities in technology related to AI, including computing power, storage, electricity, and applications, 2) Economic recovery leading to a "stronger stronger" market style, with cyclical stocks likely to perform better in the latter half, 3) Considering the potential for style rotation and bottom reversal in sectors like food and beverage, agriculture, social services, and pharmaceuticals, which have underperformed for three consecutive years but have a higher probability of outperforming in the fourth year [1] - The AI industry trend's progress depends on breakthroughs in both application and consumption ends, with a focus on the Hang Seng Internet sector [1] - In the early stages of a bull market, funds prefer high-growth sectors, while in later stages, they concentrate on main lines, making it harder for new funds to profit, whereas cyclical stocks, with low valuations and high beta, are likely to show good performance as fundamentals improve [1] Group 2 - The profitability of bulk chemicals is expected to hit a ten-year low by the second half of 2025 due to weak demand and the end of supply-side increments, with industry-wide losses or minimal profits observed in petrochemical products [3] - The fixed asset completion growth rate in the chemical raw materials and products industry is projected to turn negative starting June 2025, with limited new capacity expected in 2026-2027 [3] - The chemical raw materials and products sector is at a turning point from active destocking to passive restocking, with downstream textile and plastic products experiencing continuous inventory declines [3] Group 3 - The strategic importance of global rare earth resources is increasing, entering a new era of high-quality development, with supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics expected to drive long-term growth [6] - A significant outflow of funds from bank stocks has been noted, with A-shares and H-shares showing differing performances, indicating that A-share banks are more affected by fund outflows and style influences [6] - The investment value of banks in 2026 is expected to stem from a reassessment of systemic risks and the stable return characteristics of bank equities under the RMB asset allocation framework [6]

▲点击查看"聚焦2026中央一号文件"系列报道 今年中央一号文 件将"把农业建 成现代化大产 业"作为"三 农"的发展目标 之一，并围绕农 业科技创新、发 展农业新质生产 力作出部署。中 央财办副主任、 中央农办副主任 祝卫东在2月4日 上午举行的新闻 发布会上解读 称，当前，科技 农业、绿色农 业、质量农业、 品牌农业发展成 为新趋势，农村 一二三产业融合 不断催生新产业 新业态。把农业 建成现代化大产 业，不是指生产 经营规模越大越 好，而是强调农 业内涵要更丰 富、产业体系要 更完整、产品附 加值要更高。他 指出，今年中央 一号文件提出这 一目标，为今后 一个时期推进现 代农业建设提供 把农业建成现代 化大产业，中央 农办：并非越大 越好，要理解这 三点→_南方+_ 南方plus 了方向指引。可 以从三个方面来 理解和认识。 一是农林牧渔并 举。农业不单纯 是种地打粮，要 践行大农业观、 大食物观，在保 护好生态环境前 提下，向森林、 草原、江河湖海 要食物，向植物 动物微生物要热 量、要蛋白，推 动构建多元化食 物供给体系。同 时，大力发展设 施农业，支持更 新改造，升级技 术装备，提升产 出多样性和 ...

经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，今天(2月4日)上午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍锚定 农业农村现代化、扎实推进乡村全面振兴有关情况。中央财办、中央农办有关负责人表示，今年中央一 号文件提出把农业建成现代化大产业，这为今后一个时期推进现代农业建设提供了方向指引。 可以从三个方面来理解和认识。一是农林牧渔并举，农业不单纯是种地打粮，要推动构建多元化食物供 给体系。二是产加销贯通，农业不仅要注重生产这一头，还要注重产后开发，提高农业质量效益。三是 农文旅融合，要适应城乡居民消费需求变化，推进乡村旅游提档升级，发展"小而美"文旅业态，促进乡 村经济繁荣发展。 中央财办副主任、中央农办副主任祝卫东表示，大家都有一个感受，就是农业的含义随着时代发展在 变，多种功能更加彰显，产业边界不断拓展。科技农业、绿色农业、质量农业、品牌农业发展成为新趋 势，农村一二三产业融合不断催生新产业（300832）新业态。把农业建成现代化大产业，不是指生产经 营规模越大越好，而是强调农业内涵要更丰富、产业体系要更完整、产品附加值要更高。 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The disclosure rate and pre - happy rate of listed companies' performance forecasts have both increased. The overall performance shows significant repair characteristics, and the market's consensus expectation for the whole year is more optimistic [1][2]. - As February enters the period of performance and economic data vacuum, the market's policy - gaming sentiment may gradually heat up. The stock market generally has good expected performance after the Spring Festival and before the Two Sessions. Attention can be paid to sectors with strong performance expectations and low premium rates [22]. - The convertible bond valuation still has support and may maintain high - level fluctuations. The new bond issuance continues to be light, but the pace of pre - plans has accelerated [3][4][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Annual Report Forecast Period Ends, Driving Force Shifts to Performance Verification - **Disclosure and Pre - happy Rates**: As of January 30, 2026, the disclosure rate of performance forecasts of listed companies was 54.98%, a year - on - year increase of 1.83pct. The overall pre - happy rate was 36.87%, a year - on - year increase of 4.46pct [10]. - **Performance Repair**: The median year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of the whole market in 2025 was 20.29%, a significant improvement compared with - 18.58% in 2024. The growth of industrial added value and the narrowing of PPI decline contributed to the positive growth of industrial enterprise profits [12]. - **Sector Performance**: The net profit growth rate of the GEM was relatively strong, with a growth rate center of 26.57% and a year - on - year increase of 74.62pct, driven by the low - base effect and the performance explosion in the computing power sector [12]. - **Industry Performance**: The pre - happy rates of the non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals industries led, and the net profit growth rate centers of these two industries were also among the top [18]. - **Convertible Bond Underlying Stocks**: The disclosure rate of convertible bond underlying stocks was 49.86%, and the pre - happy rate was 31.11%. The year - on - year growth rate center of the net profit in 2025 turned from loss to profit [20]. 3.2 Valuation Outlook - **Valuation Increase in January**: The convertible bond ETF share continued to grow, and major holders such as public funds increased their holdings. The convertible bond valuation rose to a new high, with the 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate reaching 37.11% as of January 30, 2026, a 3.05pct increase from the end of 2025 [23]. - **Future Valuation**: The probability of the spring rally continuing is not low. The adjustment of positions of financial products and insurance may be the key incremental factor in the first half of the year. The valuation may maintain high - level fluctuations [23]. 3.3 Key Focused Convertible Bonds - **January Performance**: From December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, the convertible bond portfolio rose 13.79%, outperforming the benchmark index by 7.95pct. Huayi and Huachen had obvious increases [36]. - **February Portfolio Adjustment**: The "Huachuang Convertible Bond" February key - focused portfolio was adjusted to include Xingqiu, Mingli, Yirui, Huachen, Huayi, Yifeng, Bengang, Peidi, Ziyin, Qingnong, Zhongyin, and Xingye [38]. 3.4 Market Review - **Market Performance in January**: The convertible bond market fluctuated strongly, with the small - cap style leading. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major indexes all rose, and the convertible bond valuation increased by 3.05pct month - on - month [45]. - **Market Trends**: The TMT and manufacturing sectors were popular, while the financial and real - estate sectors were relatively stable. Most industries in the convertible bond and underlying stock markets rose, and there was obvious rotation among sectors [49]. - **Fund Performance**: The daily trading volume of the equity and convertible bond markets increased, and the margin trading balance also increased. Most industries received net margin purchases [55][56]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **New Bond Issuance in January**: Five new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 57.80 billion yuan, and four new convertible bonds were listed, with a total scale of 41.97 billion yuan. The online new - bond subscription decreased [60]. - **Pending Issuance and New Plans**: The total pending issuance scale was about 129.911 billion yuan. Eleven new board plans were added in January, with a total scale of 137.99 billion yuan, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year increases [67]. - **Redemption and Downward Revision**: Sixteen convertible bonds announced redemption, and five convertible bonds announced proposals for downward revision [75]. - **Holder Changes**: The total scale of convertible bonds held by various entities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges decreased. The scale of convertible bonds held by public funds increased, while that of enterprise annuities and securities companies decreased [82][85][89].

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on mid-cap blue chips, with a focus on price increases in the chemical and agricultural sectors [6][27] - Liquidity expectations are shifting, leading to increased volatility in non-ferrous metals, while the demand for industrial products driven by AI capital expenditure is expected to support price increases in cyclical goods [6][27] - Agricultural products are anticipated to experience a comprehensive price increase due to upstream price transmission and a tight supply-demand balance in major commodities like sugar, corn, and oilseeds [12][27] Group 2 - The trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable [17][27] - The trend for mid-cap blue chips related to cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals) remains strong, while media and defense industries are showing strengthening trends [20][27] - Short-term uncertainty is rising for non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, while medium-term uncertainty for basic chemicals is stable and for agriculture is declining [23][27]

促进"菜篮子"产业提质增效。坚持农林牧渔并举，推动构建多元化食物供给体系。强化生猪产能综合调 控，巩固肉牛、奶牛产业纾困成果，促进供求平衡、健康发展。多措并举促进乳制品消费。支持发展青 贮玉米、苜蓿等饲草料生产，促进草原畜牧业转型升级。支持设施农业更新改造，稳定发展蔬菜生产， 推进深远海养殖和现代化远洋捕捞，积极发展森林食品和生物农业。严格落实食品安全责任制，强化多 部门协同和全链条监管，严查严惩非法添加和农兽药残留超标等问题。 多措并举扩大乡村消费。支持乡村消费扩容升级，提升消费设施和服务水平，培育丰收市集、非遗工 坊、休闲露营等消费新业态新模式新场景。支持县乡村流通基础设施建设更新，促进农村及偏远地区商 贸流通降本增效。支持新能源汽车、智能家电、绿色建材下乡，健全农村废旧家电家具等再生资源回收 体系。依法严厉打击农村地区制售假冒伪劣商品行为。 2月3日，2026年中央一号文件《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意 见》发布。 意见提出，提升农业科技创新效能。统筹科技创新平台基地建设，加强农业关键核心技术攻关和科技成 果高效转化应用，培育壮大农业领域科技领军企业。深入实施种业振兴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the stock market, particularly in resource-related sectors, and highlights the ongoing global resource cycle, with a focus on investment opportunities and market dynamics [1]. Equity Market Summary - A-shares experienced a decline in prices but an increase in trading volume, with average daily trading exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Resource sectors such as oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture led the market, indicating a broad revaluation of physical assets [1]. - The CSI Value Index rose by 1.01%, while the CSI Growth Index fell by 0.59%. The Hang Seng Index outperformed A-shares with a 2.38% increase [1]. - The market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic until the Spring Festival, with rapid thematic rotations. Long-term investment strategies focusing on resource competition and technological self-reliance are recommended [4]. Bond Market Summary - The bond market remained stable, with the central bank supporting liquidity. Short-term bonds showed little volatility, while long-term bonds were relatively weaker. The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, but increased market speculation and volatility are anticipated [5]. Commodity Market Summary - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, reaching historical highs before a technical correction. The volatility was driven by geopolitical risks and a strengthening dollar due to potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [6]. - The South China Commodity Index rose by 2.60%, with notable increases in precious metals and energy sectors, while non-ferrous metals and black commodities saw declines [35]. Overseas Market Summary - The US stock market showed overall gains, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while the dollar weakened significantly due to political statements [2]. - The AI industry trend remains strong, with a focus on productivity and revenue growth, while traditional cycles are being monitored for recovery [7].

策略配置研究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 中观行业比较月报（2026 年 1 月） 轮动中把握景气线索，关注涨价与科技 证券分析师 平安观点： 1. 上游周期：地缘风险、流动性偏宽等多重驱动下，1 月商品走强波动加大。 有色涨幅最为显著，月末价格回落、波动加大，多数品种已升至近两年 90% 以上高分位区间；石油、化工品接力上涨，但价格水平多数仍处于历史中枢以 下，化工品内部分化明显；煤炭价格波动向上，钢铁、建材表现平淡。 2. 中游制造：新能源产业链材料涨价，出口支撑部分行业量的景气。1 月新 能源光伏、电池产业链材料价格普遍上涨，多数品种已处近两年 80%以上分 位，但仍远低于 2022 年高点；12 月电池出口有支撑；电网设备迎"十五五" 政策支持。机械制造的近一年价格指数相对平稳，12 月通用机械、挖掘机出 口维持高增，机器人产量延续高增。汽车内销偏弱出口韧性，12 月乘用车、 新能源车销量环比负增，但出口相对韧性；商用车内销、出口环比同步增长。 3. TMT：存储引领半导体涨价周期，AI 软硬件需求延续向好。1 月存储 DXI 指数环比上涨 28.3%，同比涨幅超 10 倍，智能设备销售均价同步上涨 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14205.89 points, down 0.66%. The STAR 50 Index rose by 0.12%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 286.24 billion yuan, an increase from the previous day [1][5][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 6 sectors saw gains, with telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as electronics leading the increases. Conversely, non-ferrous metals, steel, and food and beverage sectors experienced significant declines [1][5][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.94%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies also dropped by 0.32% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China conducted a collective study on forward-looking layouts and the development of future industries, with President Xi Jinping delivering an important speech emphasizing the significance of nurturing future industries for national development [9][10] - An important article by Xi Jinping titled "Walking the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Building a Financial Power" will be published in the upcoming issue of "Qiushi" magazine, outlining the principles for developing a robust financial system [13][14] - The personal income tax threshold for individual taxpayers has been raised to 1000 yuan per transaction, effective this year [17][18] - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China resulted in 12 cooperation agreements, marking a significant step in UK-China relations [19] Driving Factors - The upcoming publication of Xi Jinping's article is expected to influence market sentiment, as it outlines the strategic direction for China's financial development and emphasizes the importance of a strong financial system [8][14] - The A-share market saw 2453 stocks rise, 2896 decline, and 113 remain unchanged, indicating a volatile trading environment influenced by international market fluctuations [8]

股商波动剧烈，全球资源品大周期？ 2026 2026年年11月月2626日日-2026 -2026年年11月月3030日日 基金投顾观点 本周A股价跌量升，资源属性行业领涨，债市稳定，黄金大幅上涨后剧烈波动。具体来看，市场有以下几个重要方面： | 权益方面，本周A股价跌量升，除周五波动较大外，市场整体呈窄幅震荡，沪深两市日均成交金 | | --- | | 额重回3万亿以上。全周涨幅最高的前五个行业中，资源属性行业占据四席，分别是石油石化、 煤炭、有色金属、农林牧渔，市场对实物资产重估的范围出现扩大迹象。本周国证价值上涨 | | 1.01%，国证成长下跌0.59%。恒生指数上涨2.38%，港股股表现优于A股。 | | 债市方面，本周资金面维持稳定，债市整体表现较好，国债期货走强，现券结构分化，央行呵 | | 护资金面流动性，短债波动变化不大，而超长短相对较弱。基本面来看，GDP目标达成但内需 动能仍待修复，低利率环境预计延续。情绪面来看，本周权益市场和商品市场波动较大，市场 | | 风险偏好维持高位，对债市有一定压制。机构行为来看，节前交易盘较为谨慎，配置盘有一定 | | 支撑力量。 | | 商品方面，黄金市场 ...