Key Insights - The report highlights that China's GDP for 2025 is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.0% compared to the previous year, indicating a successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][8] - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance in December 2025, with a 5.11% increase in the domestic semiconductor sector, outperforming the broader market [19] - The electric power and utilities sector maintained a "stronger than market" investment rating, with a focus on stable, high-dividend companies in the sector [36][38] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.00, with a slight increase of 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% to 14294.05 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.80 and 53.52, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][10] Industry Analysis - The aerospace and electric grid sectors led the A-share market with slight gains, while the internet services and software development sectors faced challenges [6][9] - The battery and semiconductor sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with significant growth potential driven by technological advancements and market demand [11][12] Economic Indicators - The report notes a trend of increased capital inflow into the equity market, with a notable rise in margin trading balances, suggesting a positive outlook for market continuation [10][11] - The CPI showed a slight increase in December 2025, indicating marginal improvements in domestic demand [10][11] Sector-Specific Insights - The new energy vehicle sector saw sales of 171.0 million units in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%, supported by favorable policies [15] - The chemical industry experienced a slowdown in price declines, with specific focus on agricultural chemicals and polyester filament [17] - The gaming industry is projected to continue its steady growth, with animation films leading box office revenues [27][30]

大宗商品周度报告 2026年1月19日 能源方面，伊朗局势紧张但目前仍在可控范围，地缘政治风险溢价相应 回落。从油价波动显著加剧的表现来看，地缘反复下市场对此逐渐脱敏，除 非冲突实际发生，否则地缘溢价空间有限。EIA最新周度数据显示美国商业 原油库存意外大增，2026年第一季度的全球原油供需结构显示库存压力显 著，供应过剩仍是压制油价的主要因素，油价短期或承压运行。 化工方面，聚酯品种来看，油价回落，成本支撑弱化，需求偏弱下短期 上行驱动减弱。建材品种方面，PVC开工小幅回升，部分企业出口增加，下 游开工下滑，采购积极性不高，继续关注出口退税是否会带动抢出口带来月 差套利机会。2026年PVC有望去产能，期价重心预计会上抬。玻璃产能继 续压缩至15.01万吨，长期玻璃供给缩减，供需压力缓解，下游临近放假，或 将迎来季节性累库。 农产品方面，巴西地理与统计研究所(IBGE)预计巴西2026年大豆产量 较2025年增加2.5%。目前拉尼娜影响逐步消退，南美丰产预期重回主要交 易逻辑。上周美国生物质燃料政策确定性增强，预计3月初公布政策。短期油 脂油料或震荡运行。 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收涨1.13%，其中贵 ...

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.5157% to 1.5137%, a reduction of 0.20 basis points; DR007 fell from 1.4727% to 1.4430%, down by 2.97 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased by 2.77 basis points [9] - The net outflow of funds this week was 82.499 billion yuan, with a decrease in net inflow of 11.712 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 78.941 billion yuan, while demand was 161.440 billion yuan. Specifically, fund supply decreased by 18.763 billion yuan, with net financing purchases increasing by 18.719 billion yuan and stock dividends rising by 42.153 billion yuan. The net redemption of stock ETFs decreased by 91.826 billion yuan [13] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index declined, with a weak overall market style and a continuation of sector differentiation. The number of declining sectors exceeded those that rose, with the computer sector showing the most significant increase at 4.31%, while the defense and agriculture sectors led the declines at 5.66% and 3.49%, respectively [19] - The electronic industry received the most net leveraged capital inflow, totaling 20.163 billion yuan, while the building materials sector experienced a net outflow of 0.205 billion yuan, marking the most significant reduction [20] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Growth style had the largest increase at 1.78%, while financial style saw the largest decline at 2.73%. Growth style accounted for 60.86% of the average daily trading volume, making it the most active sector [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall stock strategy can be treated with cautious optimism. In the short term, the market is oscillating to digest profit - taking chips, and the medium - term oscillating upward pattern remains unchanged. Recently, be vigilant about the callback of over - traded sectors and pay attention to the impact of economic data and earnings reports on the fundamentals. Currently, the sentiment repair is relatively optimistic, the returns of medium and large - cap stocks are strengthening, the profit - making ability outside the index is poor, the basis is continuously converging, and the intraday Alpha and trading - type Alpha environments have not yet recovered. The basis cost is good, the excess environment is weak, and the tail risk is moderately high [11]. - For the long - only stock strategy, currently, it is advisable to increase positions in trading - type Alpha or intraday Alpha, and strictly control the proportion of component stocks in the long - only stock strategy with a high proportion of component stocks and a low exposure to small and micro - cap stocks. For the neutral strategy, it is recommended to seize the low - cost position - building window and increase positions in strategies that replicate T and strictly control exposure without relying on the return contribution of small and micro - cap stocks (mixed neutral strategies with basis management and index T strategies), but the cost - effectiveness of increasing positions in neutral strategies whose main returns rely on the contribution of small and micro - cap stocks is relatively low at this time [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review - **Factor Calendar Overview**: As of January 16, 2026, most broad - based indices rose this week. The CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, the CSI All - Share index rose 0.47%, the CSI A500 rose 0.13%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.57%, and the CSI Dividend fell 1.78%. Among the Barra style factors, the top three performing factors were BETA (1.34%), growth (0.53%), and momentum (0.26%); the bottom three were liquidity (- 0.53%), residual volatility (- 0.73%), and size (- 0.90%) [16]. - **Main Broad - based Index Review**: Most broad - based indices rose and most volatilities declined this week. The short - term, medium - term market activity is at a medium - high level. As of January 16, 2026, the average daily trading volume of the CSI All - Share index was 3.40 trillion yuan in the current 5 - day rolling average, and 2.51 trillion yuan in the current 20 - day rolling average [18][23][27]. - **Equity Industry Index Review**: This week, 41.9% of industries achieved positive returns, with the computer sector leading. The top three industries with the highest weekly returns were computer (3.82%), electronics (3.77%), and non - ferrous metals (3.03%); the bottom three were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 3.27%), real estate (- 3.52%), and national defense and military industry (- 4.92%) [28][29]. - **Equity Style Factor Review**: Among the Barra style factors, BETA, growth, and momentum factors performed well, while liquidity, residual volatility, and size factors performed poorly. Among the Giant Tide style indices, half of them rose. The top three indices with the highest returns were small - cap growth (3.61%), mid - cap growth (3.15%), and small - cap value (0.69%); the bottom three were large - cap growth (- 0.03%), mid - cap value (- 0.13%), and large - cap value (- 2.81%) [33][39]. - **Stock Index Futures Market Review**: The discount converged, and most volatilities rose. The basis of IF, IC, and IM all converged. The estimated impact of each contract's hedging on the average return of neutral products this week was - 0.10% for 300 neutral, - 0.17% for 500 neutral, and - 0.48% for 1000 neutral. Since the beginning of this year, it has been - 0.41% for 300 neutral, - 0.66% for 500 neutral, and - 0.86% for 1000 neutral [41][46]. - **Options Market Review**: The implied volatility generally increased this week, which is expected to be beneficial for option - buying and arbitrage strategies [50]. 3.2 Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: Overall, it is conducive to the accumulation of intraday Alpha in terms of liquidity, volatility, and the proportion of high - volatility stocks, but the net outflow of funds is not conducive to the accumulation of intraday Alpha [55][58][61]. - **Trading - Type Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: Overall, it is not conducive to the accumulation of trading - type Alpha. Although factors such as trading volume, turnover rate, and differentiation degree are beneficial, the mid - cap style and the decrease in the number of stocks that can beat the benchmark index are significantly unfavorable [64][70]. - **Holding - Type Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: The overall environment shows that it is not conducive to the accumulation of holding - type Alpha, but some factors such as the number of limit - up and limit - down stocks, liquidity, and volatility are expected to be beneficial for Alpha accumulation [76][88][91]. - **Neutral Strategy Hedging Environment Monitoring**: The basis volatility slightly decreased, and the cost control pressure increased [104]. 3.3 Future Strategy Judgement - **20 - day Rolling Returns**: As of January 16, 2026, the relative returns of the CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and CSI 500 to the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 were in extremely high intervals, while the return of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was in a relatively high interval [106]. - **Derivatives Option Sentiment Dimension**: The sentiment of the CSI 1000, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and CSI 500 is generally cautious but structurally differentiated, with the sentiment of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 being significantly bullish [110]. - **Derivatives Futures Sentiment Dimension**: The sentiment of the CSI 1000, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and CSI 500 is generally optimistic, and the basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, indicating that the market sentiment has recovered [113]. - **Risk Preference**: As of January 15, 2026, the margin trading balance was 2.70 trillion yuan, at an extremely high level in the past three years, indicating a high risk preference [116]. - **Style Attention Multiples**: Currently, the CSI 1000 is in a normal interval, the CSI 2000 is in a lower interval, and the CSI 500 is in an extremely high interval [122]. - **Profit Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the profit spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 were in lower, extremely low, extremely low, and extremely low intervals respectively [123]. - **Dividend Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the dividend spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 were all in normal intervals [127]. - **Trading Congestion of Small and Micro - Cap and TMT**: As of January 16, 2026, the trading heat of the TMT sector was in a relatively high interval, the trading heat of small and micro - cap sectors was in a normal interval, and the total market trading volume was in an extremely high interval [130].

Core Insights - A total of 381 companies have announced their annual performance forecasts for 2025, with 130 companies expecting profit increases, representing 34.12% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts (profit increases and earnings) is 39.37%, while 143 companies expect losses and 41 companies expect declines [1] - Among the companies with positive forecasts, 64 are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100%, and 48 companies are projected to have growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance - The company with the highest expected net profit growth is Huisheng Biological, with a median increase of 1355.24% [2] - Zhongtai Co. and SAIC Motor are projected to have median net profit growth of 677.22% and 498.00%, ranking second and third respectively [2] - The average increase in stock prices for companies expecting profit doubling this year is 10.98%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Industry Insights - The sectors with the most companies expecting profit doubling include electronics, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals, with 9, 7, and 7 companies respectively [1] - The main board has the highest number of companies expecting profit doubling, with 35 companies, followed by the ChiNext board with 22, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with 6, and the Beijing Stock Exchange with 1 [1] Stock Performance - The stock with the highest increase this year is Baiwei Storage, which has risen by 60.29% [2] - Other notable performers include Jinhaitong and Wankai New Materials, with increases of 58.03% and 30.43% respectively [2] - Among the stocks that have decreased, Tianji Co. has the largest drop at 10.96%, followed by Hongyuan Pharmaceuticals and Guolian Minsheng with declines of 9.72% and 5.31% respectively [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the commercial real estate loan policies by the People's Bank of China, setting the minimum down payment ratio at 30% for commercial properties, including mixed-use properties [4][8] - The domestic battery and energy storage sectors are experiencing significant growth, with a reported cumulative production of 1,755.6 GWh and sales of 1,700.5 GWh in 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 60.1% and 63.6% respectively [5][8] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a robust performance, with a 5.11% increase in the semiconductor sector index in December 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is under pressure, with a 4.05% decline in the sector index in December 2025, driven by poor performance in traditional categories like liquor and meat products [19][20] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown signs of volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,101.91, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,281.08, down 0.18% [3] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as a leading performer, with significant increases in both production and sales, indicating strong demand and growth potential [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges, with a notable decline in traditional product categories, while emerging categories like snacks and health products continue to show growth [19][20] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in price declines, particularly in sectors like pesticides and polyester filament, suggesting a stabilization in pricing dynamics [14][15] - The gaming industry is reported to be growing steadily, with animation films leading box office growth, indicating a positive trend in entertainment consumption [23][26] - The new materials sector is projected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by increasing demand from manufacturing and technological advancements [30][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as semiconductor equipment, storage modules, and battery technologies, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and market demand [17][18] - In the food and beverage sector, investment opportunities are recommended in soft drinks, health products, and baked goods, which are showing resilience despite overall sector challenges [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes that could impact market dynamics and investment strategies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that investor sentiment has become highly active since the beginning of 2026, with a continuous increase in margin financing balance, reflecting policy signals aimed at guiding rational investment and maintaining market stability [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the week of January 12-16, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the overall index rising by 0.49%. The Sci-Tech 50 index led with a 2.58% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 recorded declines [2]. - Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising by 1.27%, compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300. Growth and cyclical styles also saw gains of 1.78% and 0.94%, respectively, while financial stocks fell by 2.73% [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - A-share market trading activity significantly increased, with daily trading volume averaging 34,651 billion yuan, up by 6,131.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The average turnover rate rose to 2.705%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points [3]. - As of Thursday, the margin financing balance reached 27,187.27 billion yuan, an increase of 911.36 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - In the week, 17 new equity funds were established, with a total issuance of 13.152 billion units, up by 12.191 billion units from the previous week, representing 68.17% of total issuance [3]. - From January 8 to January 14, global funds saw a net inflow of 4.111 billion USD into A-shares, accelerating from a previous inflow of 0.374 billion USD [3]. Group 3: Valuation Changes - The overall A-share index's PE (TTM) valuation increased by 0.28% to 23.28 times, placing it at the 94.63 percentile since 2010. The PB (LF) valuation also rose by 0.28% to 1.92 times, at the 56.28 percentile since 2010 [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in margin financing balance and the adjustment of financing margin ratios are intended to stabilize the market and promote rational investment. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policy measures to support economic transformation and indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts, which is expected to boost market confidence [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent acceleration in net financing inflow has provided incremental capital to the market, driving individual stock performance while significantly increasing overall market leverage and potential volatility risks [5][30]. - To mitigate the rapid rise in leverage, regulatory measures have been intensified, including raising the margin requirement for financing from 80% to 100%, which aims to control new leverage without impacting existing contracts [7][17]. - The report anticipates that the A-share market is likely to shift to a volatile trend after reaching previous highs, with a focus on performance disclosures expected to intensify as the earnings forecast disclosure peak approaches on January 15 [2][30]. Market Analysis - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a high trading volume, with total market turnover exceeding 3.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the week, followed by a drop below 3 trillion yuan after the margin policy announcement [32]. - The technology sector, particularly AI computing and semiconductor equipment, is identified as a key battleground for January, alongside resource products represented by industrial metals [5][30]. - The report notes that the net outflow from ETFs, amounting to 129.6 billion yuan, has contributed to cooling market enthusiasm, with significant withdrawals from major ETFs such as the CSI 300 ETF [12][15]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that sectors such as computing, electronics, and non-ferrous metals have seen positive valuation trends, while sectors like defense, real estate, and steel have experienced declines [30][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical and technology sectors for investment strategies, recommending a focus on industries such as electric equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals [6][31]. - The report also highlights the improvement in the semiconductor industry, with December exports of integrated circuits showing a year-on-year increase of 47.72%, indicating a positive trend in the tech sector [38][41]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a preference for large-cap growth stocks in the current market environment, recommending index combinations including CSI 300, STAR Market 50, and quality indices [6][31]. - It advises that industry allocation should focus on spring market dynamics and forward-looking clues from annual reports, particularly in cyclical and technology sectors [6][31]. - The report underscores the significance of monitoring performance disclosures, especially for small-cap and thematic stocks, as they may face pressure from earnings forecasts [5][30].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: A-Share Technical Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to fully explore technical information to depict market conditions, breaking down the vague concept of "market state" into five dimensions: price, volume, volatility, trend, and crowding. It generates a comprehensive score ranging from -1 to +1 based on equal-weighted voting of timing signals from 10 selected indicators[9][14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select 10 effective market observation indicators across the five dimensions (e.g., 20-day Bollinger Bands, 20-day price deviation rate, 60-day turnover rate volatility, etc.)[14] 2. Generate long/short timing signals for each indicator individually 3. Aggregate the signals through equal-weighted voting to form a comprehensive score[9][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward and timely way for investors to observe and understand the market[9] 2. Model Name: Dividend Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model times the dividend style by analyzing the relative performance of the CSI Dividend Index against the CSI All Share Index, using three indicators: relative momentum, 10Y-1Y term spread, and interbank pledged repo trading volume[16][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Generate daily signals (0, +1, -1) for each indicator, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively 2. Aggregate the scores to determine the overall long/short view on the dividend style 3. When bullish, fully allocate to the CSI Dividend Index; when bearish, fully allocate to the CSI All Share Index[16][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently maintained a bearish view on the dividend style this year, favoring growth style instead[16] 3. Model Name: Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the crowding level of large-cap and small-cap styles based on momentum and trading volume differences, adjusting the strategy based on whether the market is in a high or low crowding state[20][22][24] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate momentum differences and trading volume ratios between the Wind Micro-Cap Index and the CSI 300 Index over multiple time windows 2. Derive crowding scores for both large-cap and small-cap styles based on percentile rankings of the calculated metrics 3. Use a dual moving average model with smaller parameters in high crowding states and larger parameters in low crowding states to determine trends[20][22][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the medium- to long-term trends in low crowding states and reacts to potential reversals in high crowding states[22] 4. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model employs genetic programming to directly extract factors from industry index data (e.g., price, volume, valuation) without relying on predefined scoring rules. It uses a dual-objective approach to optimize factor monotonicity and top-group performance[27][30][31] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use NSGA-II algorithm to optimize two objectives: |IC| and NDCG@5 2. Combine multiple factors with weak collinearity into industry scores using greedy strategies and variance inflation factors 3. Select the top five industries with the highest composite scores for equal-weighted allocation[30][33][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The dual-objective genetic programming approach enhances factor diversity and reduces overfitting risks[30][33] 5. Model Name: China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model adopts a macro factor risk parity framework, emphasizing diversification across underlying macro risk sources (growth and inflation surprises) rather than asset classes[38][41] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Divide macroeconomic scenarios into four quadrants based on growth and inflation surprises 2. Construct sub-portfolios within each quadrant using equal-weighted assets, focusing on downside risk 3. Adjust quadrant risk budgets monthly based on macro momentum indicators, actively overweighting favorable quadrants[41][42] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieves enhanced performance by actively allocating based on macroeconomic expectations[38][41] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. A-Share Technical Scoring Model - Annualized Return: 20.67% - Annualized Volatility: 17.33% - Maximum Drawdown: -23.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.19 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87[15] 2. Dividend Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 16.65% - Maximum Drawdown: -25.52% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.91 - Calmar Ratio: 0.65 - YTD Return: 5.78%[17] 3. Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Style Timing Model - Annualized Return: 27.79% - Maximum Drawdown: -32.05% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.16 - Calmar Ratio: 0.87 - YTD Return: 6.27%[25] 4. Industry Rotation Model (Genetic Programming) - Annualized Return: 31.95% - Annualized Volatility: 17.44% - Maximum Drawdown: -19.62% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.83 - Calmar Ratio: 1.63 - YTD Return: 3.31%[30] 5. China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - Annualized Return: 11.82% - Annualized Volatility: 6.20% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.30% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.91 - Calmar Ratio: 1.88 - YTD Return: 2.02%[42]

- The report introduces a **market timing system** that uses the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The system identifies an uptrend when the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a significant distance threshold of 3%[2][6][11] - The **industry trend allocation model** is highlighted, which signals opportunities in specific sectors. For the medium term, the "distressed reversal expectation model" suggests focusing on innovative healthcare. The "TWO BETA model" continues to recommend the technology sector, particularly AI applications and commercial aerospace after adjustments. In the short term, the "earnings trend model" points to opportunities in computing power (e.g., Sci-Tech Chip ETF, code 588200) and energy storage batteries (e.g., Energy Storage Battery ETF, code 159566)[2][5][7] - The **position management model** is used to determine stock allocation levels. Based on the WIND All A Index's valuation and trend, the model recommends an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - The **valuation indicators** for the WIND All A Index are also discussed. The PE ratio is at the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, representing a medium level[5][7][11]