Summary of Shanghai Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the Shanghai real estate market, particularly the trends in housing prices and transaction volumes from 2021 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends**: - After a significant decline in housing prices from 2021 to 2024, a slowdown in the decline is expected in 2025, with an average drop of about 10% for ordinary residential properties and 20% for high-end properties priced over 10 million [1][3][30]. - The average monthly transaction volume in November 2025 is projected to reach approximately 22,000 units, comparable to 2019 levels [1][5][14]. 2. **Transaction Volume**: - The transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shanghai is expected to be significantly higher in 2025 compared to 2024, with November 2025 showing a notable increase in sales [1][5][29]. - A slight increase in transaction volume to about 21,000 units is anticipated for 2026, with overall housing prices remaining stable [2][20]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - New policies have led to a reduction of approximately 20,000 listings in Shanghai, tightening the bargaining space to within 5% [1][7][8]. - The introduction of the "Nine Hui Fang" project by Lianjia has further reduced the negotiation space by promoting properties with prices close to market transaction prices [8][9]. 4. **Buyer Sentiment**: - Some buyers are hesitant due to concerns about further price declines, particularly in the high-end market [10][28]. - Tax reductions and low loan interest rates have attracted some buyers, especially for properties priced under 2 million [10][11]. 5. **Property Segmentation**: - Properties priced below 3 million account for over 60% of transactions, while those above 10 million represent less than 5% [4][28]. - Small units have seen a price drop of about 5%, while larger units may experience declines of up to 10% [13][32]. 6. **Future Market Outlook**: - The market's stability is contingent on employment and economic conditions, with potential speculation arising from the full lifting of purchase restrictions [2][20][33]. - The impact of the upcoming lifting of restrictions in 2026 is expected to primarily affect newer properties, with gradual price adjustments rather than immediate sell-offs [15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The rental yield for larger units is around 1.6%-1.7%, while older small units can exceed 2% [34]. - The current market is characterized by a predominance of first-time buyers, with a significant portion of transactions driven by local residents [31][27]. - The overall health of the Shanghai real estate market is deemed stable, with no immediate need for drastic policy interventions, although a complete lifting of purchase restrictions could lead to speculative activities [21][33]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the Shanghai real estate market, highlighting trends, buyer behavior, and future expectations.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in the real estate market of first-tier cities in China, where low-priced second-hand homes are becoming the mainstay of transactions, driven by young buyers seeking affordable housing options amidst ongoing price adjustments [3][5][6]. Market Trends - In 2025, the total transaction area of new and second-hand homes in 30 key cities remained stable at 27,443 million square meters, with new home transactions down by 7% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 6% [4]. - In October 2025, the proportion of transactions for second-hand homes priced below 2 million yuan reached 57.19% in Beijing and 48.72% in Shanghai, indicating a growing trend towards lower-priced properties [5][6]. Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers in the second-hand market are young professionals and families with children, who are increasingly opting for smaller, more affordable homes due to financial constraints and the need for convenient living arrangements [6][7]. - The demand for low-priced homes is further supported by the convenience of location, with many properties situated near public transport and essential amenities [6]. Rental Market Dynamics - The article notes a rising interest in rental yields from second-hand homes, with some properties offering rental returns exceeding 3%, making them more attractive compared to traditional savings [10][11]. - The average rental yield across 50 key cities was reported at 2.08% in the first half of 2025, slightly up from the previous year, indicating a potential shift in investment focus towards rental income [11]. Investment Considerations - While rental yields are becoming a more critical factor in property valuation, the article emphasizes the importance of considering various costs associated with property investment, including taxes and maintenance fees [13]. - Properties with high rental yields are often older and may not appreciate in value as much as newer developments, suggesting a need for cautious investment strategies [12][13].

Core Insights - The real estate market in Hangzhou has experienced a significant decline in both transaction volume and prices, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, with some properties seeing unexpected drops in value [2][4][16] Price Trends - A property in the Qingshan Lake area, once a popular hotspot, was auctioned with a starting price of 1.08 million yuan, translating to approximately 5,855 yuan per square meter, but failed to sell [2] - In 2021, similar properties in the same area were selling for around 25,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a drastic price reduction [4][9] - The East Jun International Jinwan property, with a total price of approximately 900,000 yuan for 69 square meters, reflects a price close to the original launch price of new homes in the area [5] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a high inventory level, leading to widespread price drops, especially in first-time buyer segments [4][11] - In October, over 51.3% of the 5,934 second-hand homes sold in Hangzhou were priced under 2 million yuan, highlighting the demand for affordable housing [15][16] Buyer Sentiment - The significant price reductions have created a sense of security for first-time buyers, as they perceive that prices may have reached their lowest point [16] - The market is shifting from speculative investments back to a focus on housing as a necessity, with an emphasis on affordability and practicality for buyers [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgency for homeowners to sell their properties as soon as possible due to the current unfavorable market conditions, which have fundamentally changed compared to previous downturns [9][40]. Group 1: Market Conditions - There is a significant lack of buyers with both purchasing power and intent in the current market [10]. - The real estate market has been struggling for two years, but the current situation is fundamentally different; simple price reductions are no longer sufficient to stimulate purchases [11][15]. - In a specific neighborhood, only 33 units have been sold this year compared to 68 and 72 in the previous two years, indicating a severe slowdown in transactions [16]. Group 2: Buyer Behavior - Current buyers are often those who are psychologically prepared for further price declines, indicating a shift in buyer mentality [21]. - Many buyers are driven by urgent needs, particularly those purchasing properties priced below 2 million, which has seen increased activity from previously unable buyers [23]. Group 3: Seller Challenges - Homeowners have become a weaker group in the market, facing unprecedented challenges in selling their properties due to an oversupply of listings [24][25]. - The emotional toll on sellers is significant, with many willing to offer high commissions to agents to facilitate sales [26][27]. Group 4: Agent Dynamics - Real estate agents are experiencing heightened anxiety, with many having not closed any deals throughout the year, leading to a desperate push for sales [31][32]. - Agents are increasingly using pressure tactics on sellers to lower prices, reflecting the overall market anxiety [34][36]. Group 5: Recommendations for Sellers - Homeowners are advised to sell as early as possible, as the current market dynamics favor buyers and agents, making it a zero-sum game [41][42]. - Sellers should prepare mentally, understand their competition, and choose capable agents to navigate the challenging market effectively [44][56].

另一方面，对于沪深而言，新房市场中千万元豪宅产品入市对二手房高端客群分流作用愈发明显，呈现出典型替代效应。 据CRIC监测数据，沪深2025年10月总价800万元以上房源成交套数占比环比均呈现出持平或回落。此外，杭州2025年10月 总价500万-1000万元高端房源占比环比持增阶段性回升，但仍不及去年同期。 目前来看，随着新房供地"提质缩量"叠加四代宅等高得房率新规产品入市，使得一二手房客群差异愈发显著，高端客群集 中新房，而极致刚需客群被挤压至二手房市场。 智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产研究表示，预判后市，11月京沪深二手房成交仍处在下行周期，短期内"以价换量"趋势延 续，中高改小区能否放量主要取决于新增挂牌量和新房市场优质产品入市量影响；而刚需盘目前仍然以价格为导向；目前 随着二手房市场逐步过渡为买方市场，购房者在置业时往往会综合考虑小区区位、配套、价格等因素，选取性价比较高的 小区，交易周期将进一步拉长。 01.京沪深200万元以下房源成交占比同环比齐增 对新房刚需项目分流愈发显著 从二手房成交总价段来看，主要呈现出以下特征： 一方面，低价房源占比持增，对新房市场分流作用愈发显著，极致刚需客群基本都被 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market has undergone a complete cycle over the past decade, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a more rational phase, reflecting the wealth changes of the city and its families [1][2][18] Market Performance - In 2015, Shenzhen's new home average price reached 33,426 yuan/sqm, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with transaction volumes soaring to 66,450 units, a 58.7% increase [2] - By 2025, the market has erased all gains from the past decade, with prices reverting to levels seen in early 2016, indicating a significant market correction [2][3] Regional Analysis - Different regions in Shenzhen have shown varying degrees of resilience during the market adjustment, leading to a comprehensive revaluation of property values [4] - Nanshan District, as the industrial core, has maintained prices at mid-2018 levels due to strong industrial support and talent attraction [5] - Bao'an District has shown relative stability, with prices holding at 2017-2018 levels, supported by infrastructure improvements [6] - Longhua District has experienced significant declines, with prices reverting to levels seen in early 2016, particularly in previously overheated areas [7] - Longgang District has been the hardest hit, with prices falling back to mid-2015 levels due to high supply and distance from core areas [8] - Luohu District, characterized by older properties and a lack of new industry support, has seen prices drop to July 2015 levels [9] Transaction Dynamics - The average transaction cycle for second-hand homes in Shenzhen has increased to 256 days in 2025, indicating a longer wait time from listing to sale [10] - However, the rate of increase in transaction cycles has slowed, suggesting a potential market stabilization [10][12] - The market sentiment is stabilizing, with 50.6% of properties seeing price declines, while 25.9% have increased, indicating a shift in seller behavior towards a more cautious approach [12] Buyer Behavior - There has been a significant shift in buyer logic from speculative investments to a focus on residential quality, with smaller units (under 60 sqm) becoming less liquid, as their transaction cycle has increased to 291 days by 2025 [13][14] - The most liquid price segment has shifted to 500-800 million yuan, reflecting a more pragmatic approach from buyers [14] - The luxury market has entered a phase where only premium properties are being purchased, with transaction cycles for homes over 15 million yuan rising to 311 days [15] Market Signals - A positive sign for the market is that 74% of families looking to upgrade their homes are choosing to move up in price, indicating strong underlying demand [16] - Notably, families selling properties under 3 million yuan are showing a remarkable ability to upgrade to the 3-8 million yuan range, suggesting a shift towards improved living conditions [17] - The market is showing signs of bottoming out, with some areas having returned to 2015 price levels, and transaction activity gradually increasing [18]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is experiencing a slowdown in transaction momentum, with a notable shift in buyer preferences towards lower-priced properties and specific property types [2][13]. Group 1: Transaction Structure Changes - The proportion of transactions for properties priced below 2 million yuan is increasing, indicating a significant diversion of first-time homebuyers to the second-hand market. For instance, in Shanghai, the share of transactions for properties under 2 million yuan reached 48.72% in October 2025, up by 2.16 percentage points month-on-month and 8.93 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - In contrast, the high-end segment of the new housing market is drawing buyers away from the second-hand market, particularly for properties priced above 8 million yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen, where transaction shares have either stabilized or declined [3][4]. Group 2: Property Size Preferences - The majority of transactions in the second-hand market are still concentrated in smaller units, particularly those under 70 square meters, which accounted for over 30% of transactions in October 2025. In Shanghai, this segment is seeing an upward trend [7][8]. - There is also a growing interest in compact units (90-100 square meters) and larger comfortable units (140-160 square meters), which cater to buyers looking for more spacious living arrangements [8][13]. Group 3: Regional Transaction Trends - The transaction share in suburban areas of Shanghai is declining, while core urban areas in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are also seeing a drop in transaction shares. Notably, Shenzhen's main areas are experiencing an increase in transaction concentration, with districts like Luohu and Longgang showing significant month-on-month growth [11][12]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to continue its downward trend in November, with a persistent "price-for-volume" strategy. The ability of mid-to-high-end properties to gain traction will largely depend on the volume of new listings and the quality of new housing products entering the market [14].

Core Insights - The overall trend in the real estate market shows a decline in new residential property prices across 70 major cities in October, with some cities like Shanghai, Urumqi, Hangzhou, and Hefei experiencing price increases [1][2][3] - The analysis indicates that first-tier cities are stabilizing while second-tier cities show internal differentiation, and third and fourth-tier cities are under overall pressure [1][3] New Housing Market - In October, new residential property prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai seeing a 0.3% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 0.1%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new housing prices rose by 5.7%, contrasting with declines in Beijing (2.0%), Guangzhou (4.2%), and Shenzhen (2.6%) [2][3] - The demand for improved housing, particularly in the 90 to 144 square meter range, is identified as a core support for transactions [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - In October, second-hand residential property prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, with Beijing seeing a 1.1% decline [4] - Year-on-year, second-hand prices in first-tier cities decreased, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 4.7%, 3.4%, 6.4%, and 3.3% respectively [4] - The market for second-hand homes is under pressure, but the willingness of owners to significantly reduce prices is decreasing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [5] Market Outlook - The market is expected to show characteristics of "stable volume and weak prices" with ongoing differentiation as policies are strengthened and developers push for year-end performance [1][3] - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for inventory reduction and boosting housing consumption, with a focus on enhancing market activity and confidence [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing perception of "old and broken small" apartments in the real estate market, highlighting a shift in consumer preference towards these properties as they become more desirable compared to new developments due to various factors including price and location [2][3][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - National statistics show that from January to October this year, the sales area of new residential properties decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, while the transaction area of second-hand homes increased by 4.7%, indicating a growing preference for second-hand properties [5][8]. - In major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chongqing, the transaction area of second-hand homes has increased by over 10% year-on-year, reflecting a significant market shift [5][8]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly opting for "old and broken small" apartments due to their affordability and proximity to urban centers, which offer better access to amenities and reduced commuting times [21][23][50]. - The article highlights individual stories of buyers who prefer "old and broken small" apartments for various reasons, including lower prices, established neighborhoods, and the desire for a more manageable living space [24][30][40][50]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - The article notes that the value logic in real estate is shifting from viewing properties as investment assets to seeing them as durable consumer goods focused on living quality [30]. - The demand for "old and broken small" apartments is partly driven by the scarcity of quality educational resources, making them attractive to families seeking good school districts [32][35].

Core Insights - The recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in commodity housing sales, with a continuous reduction in unsold inventory for eight months and a decrease in the funding shortfall for real estate developers [1][3][5] - Various real estate regulatory policies implemented this year are showing positive effects, leading to increased buyer confidence and a more active market, particularly in major cities [3][5][10] Sales Performance - From January to October, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes nationwide decreased by only 1.9% year-on-year, indicating market stability despite a high base last year [3][8] - In major cities like Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Xiamen, the transaction volume for both new and second-hand homes has increased year-on-year [3][8] Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is becoming the mainstay of transactions, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area for second-hand homes, accounting for 45% of total transactions [10][12] - The demand for improved housing is driving changes in the market, with policies aimed at increasing housing fund loan limits and subsidies [12][13] Land Market Trends - Local governments are actively adjusting land supply strategies to boost developer confidence, with Beijing and Hangzhou implementing targeted land supply measures [15][20] - The total land acquisition amount by the top 100 real estate companies reached 783.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [15][20] Policy Measures - Over 60 cities have introduced purchase subsidies or "old-for-new" policies to support housing demand, with various financial incentives being offered [16][18] - Cities are also enhancing housing credit and public fund policies to support reasonable housing consumption, with adjustments made to loan limits and eligibility for fund withdrawals [20]