【环球时报报道 记者 杨沙沙】编者的话：特斯拉CEO马斯克日前转发了一段美国经济学家弗里德曼的 视频。视频中，弗里德曼以一支普通铅笔为例，阐释了"世界上没有一个人能只靠自己制造出这支铅 笔"：制作铅笔的木材可能来自美国华盛顿州，石墨产自南美……铅笔生产是上千人合作的过程。这让 人想起了美国经济学家伦纳德·里德1958年发表的一篇题为《铅笔的故事》的文章。这篇经典之作以一 支铅笔的视角，描述了铅笔生产过程中的工序和参与其中的人们。通过这支铅笔，可以看到社会分工的 精妙。在美国发起关税战、市场竞争日趋激烈的当下，接受《环球时报》记者采访的多名中国企业负责 人都表示，铅笔是倡导全球化的鲜活案例。他们向记者讲述了"新铅笔故事"。 " 接到设计稿， 48 小时就能出样品 " 在浙江义乌很多商家眼中，铅笔制造是再简单不过的一件事——两块大木板，中间挖槽，把铅芯放上 去，再把两块木板夹起来，用刀具切割，一支支毛坯铅笔就下了生产线。 另据香港《南华早报》4月10日报道，美国约85%的钢笔和铅笔产自中国。仅在2022年，美国就从中国 供应商那里购买了价值4.3亿美元的钢笔。数据显示，中国在全球文具市场中占据了80%的份额。 受 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual recovery in its traditional core business and new business segments, leading to long-term stable growth [10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company has shown signs of improvement that are anticipated to be released in the future [10] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 923.83 million [2] - Market price: ¥31.32 [2] - Market capitalization: ¥28,934.31 million [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: ¥23,351 million, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024A: ¥24,228 million, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: ¥1,693 million, with a growth rate of 21% [4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: ¥1.83 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥5.645 billion in writing tools, showing a slight decline of 0.07% year-on-year [8] - The online business segment, particularly Morning Glory Technology, achieved a revenue of ¥3.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.57% [10] - The retail segment, including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, reported a revenue of ¥4.01 billion, with an increase of 8.03% year-on-year [9] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 20.65%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.28%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The projected net asset return rate for 2025E is 15% [4]

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is not explicitly stated in the provided content [2] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the company, 卡游, is a leading enterprise in the domestic collectible card game market, achieving significant revenue growth and expanding its product lines into stationery and other toy categories [4][6][18] - The report indicates that the collectible card game segment has the fastest growth rate in the entertainment toy industry, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, and the market size is projected to reach 263 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 25.8% of the overall entertainment toy market [4][33][37] Group 2 - The company has a diversified IP matrix with 70 IPs, including popular franchises like Ultraman and My Little Pony, which contribute significantly to its revenue [44][46] - The company has established a strong operational capability in IP management, covering the entire process from market research to product design and marketing [49] - The company has a robust sales channel strategy, primarily relying on distributors, with a gradual shift towards direct sales and online platforms [64][66] Group 3 - The financial performance of the company shows a rapid revenue increase, with a reported revenue of 100.6 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 277.8% [4][18] - The revenue breakdown indicates that collectible card games accounted for 81.5% of total revenue in 2024, although this represents a slight decline from previous years [18][57] - The company plans to use IPO proceeds to expand production facilities, enhance IP resources, and strengthen digital operations [23][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [5]. - The company is actively expanding into the "second dimension IP" sector, focusing on products that appeal to younger consumers, enhancing the emotional value of its offerings [7]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 7.5%, 6.4%, and 5.5% respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 7.6%, 9.2%, and 8.5% in the same period [8]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 20.65%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 6.07% [6]. - The company’s revenue from various product lines showed mixed results, with writing tools and office supplies experiencing slight declines, while the "Morning Light Living Hall" and "Morning Light Technology" segments saw growth [5]. - The company expects revenues of 26.056 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.502 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trend after a challenging 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Glory Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first such occurrence since 2021, with revenue at 5.245 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, and net profit at 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Morning Glory achieved total revenue of 24.228 billion yuan, an increase of 3.76% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.396 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue across major business segments, including writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies, with respective revenues of 803 million yuan, 848 million yuan, and 2.790 billion yuan, each declining over 5% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The company categorizes its operations into traditional core businesses and new businesses, with the former including writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies, while the latter encompasses office direct sales and retail stores [2] - The office direct sales business, which has been a revenue pillar, accounted for over 50% of total revenue, but its gross margin fell to 7.08% in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2] New Business Developments - The retail store business, represented by Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store and Morning Glory Life Hall, is seen as a key area for brand and product upgrades, with 792 retail stores nationwide as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store reported revenue of 388 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 11.37% year-on-year, but faced a net loss of 12.4428 million yuan in 2024 [3] Strategic Focus - Morning Glory's management indicated plans to enhance investment in IP (intellectual property) products and increase the proportion of proprietary brands to cater to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [3] - The company aims to leverage its independent toy brand "Qizhi Haowan" to focus on IP incubation and brand collaboration, targeting the "two-dimensional IP" market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.397 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.69%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 62.82 million RMB, down 18.32% year-on-year due to a provision for asset and credit impairment losses of 120 million RMB [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.212 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, with a net profit of 48.87 million RMB, down 1.14% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to focus on core clients and business scenarios in office procurement, which is anticipated to lead to stable growth in business scale [1] - The company plans to enhance IP collaboration in new stationery products, which is expected to contribute to growth [1] - After the impairment provisions, the company is expected to recover its profitability in 2025 [1] Revenue and Profitability - The B2B office supplies and new stationery business generated a revenue of 11.352 billion RMB in 2024, up 3.00% year-on-year, with a net profit of 22 million RMB, down 9.8% year-on-year excluding goodwill impairment [2] - The SaaS software and services segment reported a revenue of 45 million RMB in 2024, down 41.93% year-on-year, with a net loss of 110 million RMB, slightly narrowing from a loss of 112 million RMB in 2023 [2] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.21 percentage points to 8.59%, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses and improved operational efficiency [3] - The operating expense ratio decreased by 0.50 percentage points to 6.46%, with the sales expense ratio increasing by 0.10 percentage points to 4.99% due to higher marketing expenses [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 222.91 million RMB, 280.47 million RMB, and 339.96 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 RMB, 0.39 RMB, and 0.47 RMB [4][6] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 8.37 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 27 times for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target price of 7.03 RMB [4][8] - The current market capitalization is approximately 5.028 billion RMB, with a closing price of 6.97 RMB as of April 25 [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 3 月社零稳健复苏，关税倒逼电商平台调整运营模式 2025 年 3 月服务消费与文旅市场协同发力驱动消费稳健增长。相较 1-2 月服 务零售额同比增加 4.9%、高于商品零售 1%，服务业生产指数增加 5.6%，3 月延续强劲态势，数字化转型与假日经济持续赋能，拉动信息技术、交通出 行等行业增长。清明假期全国出游 1.26 亿人次、消费 575.49 亿元，同比分 别增加 6.3%和 6.7%，踏青赏花游热度环比超 5 倍，租车预订量、寺庙门票 预订量分别增加 30%、80%，呈现"短途高频+长线品质"双驱动格局，与服务 消费共同支撑 3 月消费市场稳健增长。 低碳：新能源汽车引领绿色出行变革，驱动低碳生活生态体系构建 2025 年第一季度新能源乘用车累计零售 241.4 万辆、同比增加 37%，3 月渗 透率达 51.1%，政策端"以旧换新"最高 2 万元补贴直接刺激需求。自主品 牌占据 71.5%份额，比亚迪等单月销量超 37 万辆，合资品牌仅占 6%；出口 44.1 万辆，宁波口岸前两月出口量增加 439%，展现全球竞争力。随碳普惠、 循环经济推进，绿色生活从"示范"走向"日 ...

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Outperform the market, maintained [2] - Core Viewpoint: The report highlights the growth potential of the collectible card game industry, with the company positioned as a leader in the market [3][4] Group 2 - Company Overview: The company is a leading player in China's collectible card game sector, focusing on a diverse product portfolio that includes toys, figurines, and stationery [7][9] - Industry Overview: The IP toy market is thriving, with collectible card categories experiencing the fastest growth [21][22] - Financial Performance: The company's revenue growth is driven by top IP products, with significant increases in sales figures [8][10] Group 3 - Business Model: The company employs an integrated business model that leverages product experience, interactive operations, and production capabilities [13][55] - Product Portfolio: The core product is collectible cards, complemented by figurines, other toys, and stationery, showcasing a diverse product range [54][80] - IP Matrix: The company has established a diverse IP matrix, enhancing its overall IP operation capabilities [83]

关于2024年由盈转亏，卡游给出了两个原因：其一，行政费用增加，主要是由于公司于2024年向李奇斌 授出的若干股份确认股份支付开支，以表彰其贡献；其二，以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金 融负债的公允价值亏损增加，主要系2024年A轮优先股的公允价值增幅较2023年高。 而在非国际财务报告准则计量下，2022年至2024年的经调整净利润分别为16.20亿元、9.34亿元、44.66 亿元。 年后以来，港股IPO持续迎来小爆发，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）、赤峰黄金（06693.HK）、正力新能 （03677.HK）等多股实现上市，并取得了不错的股价表现。 近日，又有多家公司闯关港股市场。其中，于4月14日，卡游有限公司（以下简称卡游;）更新招股书， 继续向港交所发起冲击，摩根士丹利、中金公司、摩根大通担任联席保荐人。 业绩迎来复苏，营收跨过百亿 卡游是国内领先的泛娱乐产品公司之一，所谓的泛娱乐产品是基于IP开发的实体产品，如玩具、文具及 其他消费品等。 招股书显示，玩具，尤其是集换式卡牌，是卡游的核心产品。此外，卡游着力于丰富公司的玩具产品组 合，推出人偶、徽章、立牌、集换式卡牌收藏册及贴纸等其他产品类别 ...

根据灼识咨询的报告，按2024年商品交易总额计算，卡游在中国泛娱乐产品行业和泛娱乐玩具行业中排名第一， 市场份额分别为13.3%和21.5%；在中国泛娱乐玩具行业集换式卡牌领域中排名第一，市场份额为71.1%；在中国 泛娱乐文具行业中排名第一，市场份额为24.3%。 财务数据方面。2022年至2024年，卡游的营收分别为41.31亿元、26.62亿元和100.57亿元；经调整净利润分别为 16.20亿元、9.34亿元和44.66亿元。 卡游在招股书中表示，IPO募资所得净额的约45%将用于对于生产设施的扩建和升级；约15%将用于丰富IP矩阵， 加强IP运营；约10%将用于产品设计及开发更多产品类别与系列，丰富产品组合；约8%将用于优化仓储和物流能 力；约7%将用于业务运营数字化；约5%将用于品牌推广；以及约10%将用于运营资金及一般公司用途。 通过持续构建"卡游宇宙"生态，这家以集换式卡牌为核心，覆盖人偶收藏、文具文创、数字衍生品等全品类的泛 娱乐企业，正加速实现从"卡牌专家"到"泛娱乐生态构建者"的战略升级。业内人士分析，此次港股IPO或将为卡游 注入更强资本动能，助力其进一步巩固国内领先地位，同时加速拓展 ...